Yeah, this is really silly. The trips were discussed here very shortly after the Keeneland race, which I think you need to watch again, and I picked Street Sense publically and bet him and made a bit of money.

Sadly, I didn't hit the exacta, as while I felt Street Sense was close to ten lengths better than Circular Quay, I incorrectly ( and unfortunately ) thought others were less bad.

I gathered as much, unfortunately I didn't join here until after the BC. I have no doubt about BTW's or anyone else's talent on this board when it comest to handicapping. This is a smart bunch.

NT

didnt mean to come across as all knowing (Everyone on DT knows I aint), but just wasnt sure if you knew BTW's pick prior to the BC Juvy.

I could single handidly be the most aggresive, confrontational poster you know...:D

something like that...just looking for a day off between now and then. Jonesing for an "all dayer" at the OTB....:o

dont make me wrap a nine iron over your wig....damit c q is the best horse sence HELENS DREAM............OR ,MYSTICAL FASTNESS

I'm not holding the race against CQ at all.
After getting completely jammed at the rail, stopping when the jockey flew off the horse like a ragdoll (still can't believe he rode and won the next race), veered all the way outside and finished full of run tells me that he's more than just a closing sprinter. I'm not ready to proclaim him the Derby winner, but I'm not ready to toss him, either.
I was just peeved because I had CQ keyed with the 8-10-12, but didn't bet it without him involved. That was an extremely nice trifecta payout all things considered.
Anyone know where they're going to point CQ to next?

Did he ever make it out of the gate?

Hopefully somewhere that a loose buffalo runs across the track in front of him to give him another excuse and give all of us good odds on him for races to come.

Yeah, I know, I saw the race and was just commenting on the bad start. No clue who bet that much early on him but it was a bad day for me and my picks being bombarded by early money and then tanking (Storm Treasure/High Heels) so I'm starting to think that early money and smart money have nothing in common.

Circular Quay was cruising in behind leaders and looked as if he would have won easy, until the horse in front of him clipped heels and went down causing Quay to swerve,he is definitly a horse to watch for the derby.

Steve watch the race again if the horse in front of Quay had not have gone down he would have made the race very interesting.On the show(ATRAB) the other day one of your guest made a statement about Con Collins being the daddy of all Irish trainers,definitly a great trainer,I have one name who is daddy of them all, not only in Ireland but possible world wide Vincent O'Brien.

I don't think CQ's backers should be jumping off the bandwagon based on the final results of the Risen Star. This could be a blessing in disguise for his future pool backers.

17-1 and probably going up after finishing off the board. There's a lot of bandwagon chasers in the future pool.

Heading into the future pool I liked Street Sense and Ravel the most, but their odds are going to make them unplayable for me in this pool. (add in the fact that I'm moving half a continent away from the track I'd have to place the future wager at and I'm sitting this future pool out)

NoBiz is a tossout for me as the likely favored singular betting interest. Too many supporters at this point, and to me he looks like a horse I'd love on an off track (Go for Gin and Halo in his pedigree), but probably try to beat as the favorite any other day.

Risen Star winner Notional looks like a steal at 37-1. There will be some late money on him I'm sure, but again the breeding doesn't insprire me for a Derby winner. He was my pick for the Risen Star, but he doesn't fit my Derby profile.

The evolution of Kev...GPK-> T3B-> WWW?

ravel certainly has the pedigree to be a derby winner-if one won it on pedigree alone! have to admit notional looks as tho he came from the wrong side of the tracks after looking over ravels...

A drastically premature move in the Keeneland race caused Street Sense to run a low number. If he had not moved so early, and instead utilized his kick at a later time, the number would have a few points higher which then would have made his BC jump easier to afford.

Horses run their best in optimal conditions, which he had in the BC. But the way won was overpowering and until I am proven otherwise, I respect him.

As for Circular -- he was totally eliminated from yesterday's race. You have to assume he would run better with a more clear situation. He is one paced much like the horse 'Crazy I've been mentioning. I think CQ threatens third at least with a better trip. Does this make me like him in the Derby though? Absolutely not.

Somebody also added APPEALING ZOPHIE's time comparison to this post, which is very interesting.

She did run faster than Notional, granted with a slow pace. But Notional had a fast pace to take advantage of. The filly had horses breating down her neck at numerous times in the race too.

I think in the end, however, these races will be largely inconsequential. Notional could go on, but I think the rest are in stall-mode.

Master Command got a 110 so both Appealing Zophie and Notional should be right about 93 (they aren't any higher than that since the leaderboard cuts off at 94).

Just in case it hasn't been mentioned, the race reply is up at ESPN's Horse Racing Page now (sorry if I'm the 10th person to break the news lol).

Notional looked impressive. Eventhough there was a spill, he looked impressive.

To avoid reading through a million threads, was Teuflesberg scratched because of post position or some other reason? Thanks...

Louisiana Derby is next for CQ..........I'm not jumping off of CQ yet.....I have this strange feeling that that Pletcher guy knows what he is talking about:

“He was flying by everybody at the end,” said Todd Pletcher, who will be Circular Quay’s trainer of record for his next start. “Obviously, we were very unlucky today, but I wouldn’t trade places with anybody now.

“There are troubled trips – but it would be hard to categorize exactly what this was today. The horse looks fine, and the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) would be likely (as a next start).”

Well, I definitely wouldn't toss CQ based upon one bad race. I look forward to seeing him in the LA derby. I'll be there. :cool:

Hopefully common sense. Otherwise he would have been in that mess of 50-1 and 100-1 shots (that didn't belong in the race in the first place) tiring at the end that almost led to disaster. He can be a good sprinter and maybe will be able to stretch out as he gets older but he is absolutely not a Derby prospect. The owners should be thrilled on getting a horse like him for $7,000 instead of being hellbent on destroying him in the quest for the Derby.

If you think he is an aggressive confrontational poster, you wait til he defends his DT Tootsie Roll title.....I think he could win in a walkover this year....:D

LOL, great post Bigsmc!

First of all, he was NOT " flying by everybody "...he picked up the dead mediocrities that tired from the pace and a couple other stragglers. The logical horses finished one-two-three and well in front of Circular Quay...but apparently they were not part of the " everybody " that Todd saw in the race. But, as if that statement wasn't a big enough falsehood, it was followed by the insipid " I wouldn't trade places with anybody ". Perhaps not in life, but he would trade Circular Quay even up for NoBiz and Street Sense most assuredly.

Look, Pletcher is right that it's a difficult trip to categorize, and it's impossible to know how he would have done had he gotten clear of trouble, but the fact remains that Circular Quay still has not proven an ability to run particularly well going both a route of ground and two turns. In fact, there is mounting evidence that he can't and that is what he now must disprove. No amount of " trainerspeak " can change that.

CQ dragged johhny v up to the back of the pack....he was nowhere near letting him loose...If CQ had room and kicked like he did in EVERY other race he has been in then he would have won...this race is a TOTAL toss out...if you dont think so you need to have the race played on a 100 inch screen or something so you can see what happened. I would compare this AWFUL trip to 3 horses being taken out by Landseer in the 2002 BC Mile. I would also like to point out that after CQ dodged a bullet Johnny V did not go right to work on him.....he took caution and made sure that CQ was ok before he let him loose.

I guess Pletcher is just a big talker. He probably doesn't know what he is talking about when he watches a horse race.
Maybe you have more access to these horses than I do....but I don't think you have more access than Mr. Pletcher.

I have a question though....does finishing second in a two-turn race mean that you don't run well in routes?

You are right though, CQ was not flying by everybody, he was too busy checking and dodging fallen riders.........what a bum.

I love these kind of responses.

I wish you the best of luck.

Right back at you.

I'm not sure what impact this race is actually going to have on the Derby. That being said, if I picked one horse from this race to possibly do something in the Derby it would be Zanjero. He hadn't ran since November and had some breaks in his training as well. I can't believe he was anywhere near 100% yesterday and I think that showed after he took the lead and had nothing left. I think he will take a big step forward off of yesterdays race, not so sure the others will. What are your opinions on this?

Westwon will improve, hes essentially unraced since Keeneland.

What is going on around here regarding CQ? Based on the reaction that I see on here it is a sure thing that he will be an underlay once again in his next start because of the fact that people are going to keep repeating that this race is a total throw-out. Well I am not going to choose to throw it out because while the incident clouded the final outcome a bit, I saw enough to realize that CQ is probably not going to be a star two turn horse.
And this is a horse that I have liked from the beginning but the emerging pattern in his performances hints strongly to me at least that he has limited upside going two turns against the best emerging three year olds.

You mention that if he had room and kicked like he did in every other race that he would have won. How can you say that? His kick has never got him to the winners circle going two turns, and it certainly wouldn't have yesterday. I have looked at the race several times and I can't see him better than perhaps in the place or show photo if you assume that the incident does not happen.

This is an example of a troubled trip that will be way overplayed in terms of its effect on the outcome.