While most of the posts are hard to argue with, this thread has several relevant ommissions that would prevent an upgrade in the quality of one's handicapping. I realize the naysayers will respond with their usual nebulous critique, but I recieved a few PM's and this post is aimed mostly at those people.

Certainly past performances are essential and any handicapping endeavor must start with them. Where you get them is personal preference; how you use them is the art! Other mentioned data included TG, speed figures, troubled trips, software, race shape and even the dreaded dart board approach. I am going to list seven different "places" to find relevant data that were not mentioned. 'Cappers of all skill levels can raise their game using these and I will provide some examples of how they can/did help! In no particular order:

1) The Sheets. While I am a Beyer guy proprietor Lenny Friedman is a top shelf capper. If you ask him a question he will take the time to answer it either on his forum or privately. The "sheets" have been published for many years and while the forum is small their are some VERY talented cappers, one of whom hit the big pick six in California last week. Fact: TG's Jerry Brown learned his craft working here.

2) Forums. Visit the forum where the race(s) are being run. If you are betting FG (nola), if Delmar (dmtc), if Chicago (btw) etc. Its always good to go fishing with a guide that is familiar with the lake! Locals are good with track conditions, rail placements and other useful inuendo. There are some very talented 'cappers out there and I try to read everything they post. Item: Last year a ubiquitous capper on the Delmar forum posted a $384 pick six ticket and bagged a little over $100,000!

3) American Racing Manual It appears to me that Derby Trail has a number of w/end cappers who are relatively new to the game and the (ARM) is a must. You can buy it used at Amazon. I could go on and on about its uses but a few that come to mind. Track configurations including length/width etc. Beyer pars! Tons more info!! Factoid: The Donn is this weekend and the average winning Beyer is 113. Many people will bet a horse at a shortish price that cannot run that par!

4) Track websites Entries, results, free charts, jockey/trainer standings, stakes nominations and much, much more. Item: Although many top horses are nominated to more than one race, English Channel was nominated to the FG 'Cap, last week! A good handicapping exercise I do a few times a year is; go to the site, download the pp's a week or so before the race, then weight the race yourself, BEFORE the racing secretary. Add up the differences and if you are more than an average of two pounds off per horse..your game needs some work.

5) Workout Services Brisnet offers a daily service for most major tracks for $6-$12 depending on the day and they are quite useful. Many other private services are available with Bruno Dejulio being among the best. I have emailed him several times and he has always responded promptly and professionally. Horses that work well run well and the time of the work is often irrelevant! Factoid: When Jerry Brown won the cappin tourney at Delmar last August he did not boast about his TG "numbers" but instead credited an obscure clocker. I bought the same report that day for about $4 and the clocker had an eighty to one shot that finished second and had a big time day. Fact: The biggest score for me last year was a pick 4 and a friend sent me the brisnet clocker report for that day. Leg one: nw2life and the winner had a 13-1-3-3 record came off a claim and a bullet work $24, Leg 2 A Md Sp Wt and the winner came off the shelf after being "roughed start" in his only perfromance. A homebred half to a Ky Oaks winner his clocker comment "talented, bears watching" $51 Leg 3 1X, the winner came off a troubled trip while closing for second on a dead rail. Clocker comment "in hand while going easy, Borel up" $19 Leg 4 featured a multiple stakeswinner in a 2x (statebred races excluded) the comment "hard held, going very easily" $4.

6) The Condition Book Each tracks racing secretaries put out the book and the trainers point their horses for the upcoming races. A book usually covers racing for the next three weeks or so and is written with the local horse population in mind. Trainers are constantly juggling their horses and usually pick a race and adjust that horses schedule backwards from the date of that race. If a trainer has a horse that can win a $7500 claiming race at six furlongs and the only races are for; $5K @ six furlongs or $`10K @ six furlongs where to enter? Or wait for an extra that appears on the overnight and hope!! Item: This past Sunday my pick 4 post featured a horse in the last leg that the trainer intentionally entered in a tougher spot than necessary to boost the price. Sunday he entered her where she belonged. Alas she got clear in the stretch but was run down and settled for second best at a salty 23-1. This can be a humbling game.

7) Personal Tenets We all use them and as a horizontal (Pick4) player I rely on tenets mostly designed to eliminate horses. This is highly subjective and probably does not fit well in this post. Nevertheless, one of my favorites; do not play a horse that cannot make the lead, AND cannot pass horses! Most races have several of these types. Sorry for the length. BBB

One of the best posts i've seen on here. Thanks BBB.

Here's one to add....


Taking advice from people who don't bet is a very bad decision.

Ditto, Pillow.

Very informative, BBB. Thanks for posting that.

Agreed and will add the main thing is to know how to read and analyze the information in any handicapping tool/publication. Not just the bold numbers!!! Digging deep is how to find value and avoid bad chalk.

Perfect.

For what it's worth, you did the dirty work of discrediting you for us.

That post right there unequivocally proves that you know nothing about Jamie at all. I can say without a doubt that Jamie is far too humble about her appearance. She's cute, of course, but she'd be the last to tell you that herself. Matter of fact, she had about 70 consecutive hours this weekend with me to let me know how cute she thought she was....and not once did anything even resembling that sort of remark come out of her mouth.

So once again, we're right back to a poster acting ignorantly and using someone's age and the way they look as a basis for a character judgment. Hint: Doing so without fail gaurantees that you will be wrong and come off as a foolish tool.

Acting "like the guy who was born on third base and acts as if he hit a triple."

Sitting in a hotel room in Minneapolis. Wearing every piece of clothing I own. Teeth won't stop chattering.

It's freezing up there! :eek: I'm cold just thinking about it. :(

8 deg... with the wind "feels like" -10 deg. caught a gust of wind exiting the airport that almost killed me on the spot. seriously considering setting myself on fire.

Precisely why we live in the Sunshine State, eh? I hope you're not up there too long... and don't set yourself on fire! :eek:

I know how you feel. I was in for such a rude awakening yesterday. My flight from DC to Detroit was on one of those regional jets where they don't even hook up to the little walkway. Yep, I had to do the good old step down off the plane right onto the tarmac thing at 10 degrees.

Not fair.

these guys do ok at Turfway
http://simulcapper.com/

I really don't follow it that much but for Turfway they are ok

for me at Turfway you want outside speed
and closers are my preference

but the track doesn't always play the same way

Pillow and Cajun: Thank you for your very kind comments. In retrospect I should have been more in depth. I do take a small bit of cheer, in that your comments somewhat contradict the poster that said yesterday, I post "nothing of value". BBB

Do we have time for a Formulator 4 lesson??
 

Coming back to the topic on a day racing is a little slow....

Those of you that are Formulator 4 folks......besides reading the manual are there 1) Ways to filter for late and early speed in a race 2) Account for workouts in any way for a particular horse relavant to the race

It would seem that the "filters" are the thing to learn to manipulate effectively here with this product. Besides the obvious ones Turf or dirt, fast or sloppy, Trainer/Jockey numbers etc. Can you identify lone speed or lone surperior closer with Formulator 4 or am I talking about shaping a race or these new fangled PACE numbers?

If per chance there are any Formulator 4 experts (Hint Hint Andy!!!) Perhaps if you have the time and could post suggestions for one race 2/21/07 like maybe the 7TH at GP as an example of a turf route or the 6TH as an example of a dirt sprint. Laying out an approach to using the filters relevantly other than the obvious Beyer filter which helps but is limited.

I just don't have the time right now....actually have to start my Formulator work for tomorrow's Gulfstream card.

I don't really use the filters, sorry, as I use it more for looking into charts.

If you have a second talk about what you mean when you say "looking into the charts".......I don't mean to put you out just trying some new tool and trying to figure out where to use it.

I think Formulator is the greatest handicapping tool ever invented. You have to be willing, and interested, in putting in the time but there are plenty of rewards if you do.

Basically you can reference any of the last three starts ( in North America ) of every entrant. You get the chart from that race, and from there can get the lifetime pps of every horse in that race, and you can reference any other chart from that day's races. It's great for handicapping a circuit that is at all foreign to you as you can get a good look at the relative competition and also search the day's races for any obvious bias. Plus, you can see how horses have done coming out of the previous race ( or races ) and find actual key races ( there are very few ) as opposed to being fooled by what are incorrectly thought of as key races.

thanks.....I was noticing that you dont buy that a key race is a race where winners are multiple next time out. Are you saying that a key race needs more than two winners next out or bold like the quick sheet does or are you saying that you need to judge a certain level of performance in all of the horses at the same level (MDN clain, alw..etc) of racing? (like the majority of the horses in the race run a new top if you forgive the TGH reference)

Do you think there is an accentuated bounce factor for horses that are in these very competitive races because the drain is likley to be more in a hotly contested race. eg A horse that comes out of a 6F "key race" that has a par of "X" that actually has numbers in say 3 horses 20% above expected par or beyer. do you think those horses are good plays against in sprints next race within 3 weeks?

Do you have some kind of software that keeps track of these races or are they just in the AS computer of PP's?

And yes I have considered decaf on days I am not seeing patients........hope I make you laugh!!!

have any of you tried to use turfday website. it is also loaded with info, and reminds me of what you say formulator is good for such as cross referencing charts and pp's. i am not sure how the costs compare. last i checked i believe turfday was about $75 a month. also, as far as the sheets go i do seem to be doing better with them, but any thoughts on cost. for example 3 tracks on thorograph is $60 a day i dont think there is any volume discounts that i know of. if so please let me know. compare this to a form full of beyers $5?

If you go to the local track (Laurel for me) you get 3 or 4 tracks for $35-40

TGH does have a great product but Ole Mr Brown is not into volume discounts on any level. But to be fair they do give away all tracks between Xmas and New Years on line so they do make some concessions.....

They recently bumped 2nd, 3rd and 4th product's of a given day prices by 25-33% this year which I think actually will hurt them overall as customers aware of this I believe will buy less but if you don't know about the increase it probably doesn't hurt them that much.

They see growth in their business with more customers from more effective advertising and lose sight of the loyal customers who are buying less than in the past.

Just a difference of opinion of business practices but make no mistake about it I am a big advocate of TGH....

I think this is a great idea. I just havent the time. But when I retire, I will have a much longer list than I currently make. I love watching replays and when we actually had them running in my neck of the woods it was an absolute must...

I basically believe that any shortcut is a road to losing....and defining a race a " key " race simply based upon results, without delving into the truth behind those results, is a shortcut and an error in judgement. What if two horses come out of a maiden race at Saratoga and break their maidens, at odds on, at Delaware and Phili Park, should that somehow elevate the status of the race they came out of? What if four of the returnees came back to improve their Beyer figs, or any figs you use, dramatically in their next start without winning, should one NOT perhaps elevate that race?

Once again, I basically don't believe at all in bounce, and think it is most likely the results of a good or beneficial situation one day and a less good one the next. Plus, I believe the prevalance of drugs has created many false performances that both can't be duplicated and physically affect a horse for its future starts.

Software? I'm lucky I can log into this place.

Before it goes off Formulator would imply 5/16 here in the 3rd at GP

Well the 5 won as the F4 would suggest


You don't believe in bounce??? So for the first time in listening to people who make a living at this someone actually said outloud what went against every thing I know about human organisms namely that we repair ourselves from exreme efforts by rest and more improtantly sleep!!!! There is no "bounce" unless your talking about efforts like marathons or other extremes of exertion.........!!!!! And even then you dont need 3 weeks to shake off the Boston Marathon!!!

How many times I have listened to Brown and Ragozin make a fortune off this notion......there ain't no performance software or sheet that predicts DRUGS though......pisses me off beyond articulation!!!!

The whole milkshake nonsense is just one way to temporarily alter acid-base physiology in a living organism thus they don't feel the pain (fatigue) and do not slow down the last furlong. Some day we'll figure out how it's being done with horses but if I want to do it with people in an ICU environment I have about 6 options that you'll NEVER detect and don't think the crooked vet/trainers who do this aren't using human models to cheat us all with horses!!!!

More info than you needed but damn this pisses me off......Better living through chemistry my a--!!!!! You get the picture.

Yes Decaf would be good on days off!!!