Haven't needed an excuse for Arrogate yet and its highly unlikely I ever will. I was on him well before the Travers. Its not like he ran huge and I started to like him. I don't get you. On twitter you talk about Arrogate could be an all time great and you say things very similar to what I have said here multiple times about if Chrome couldn't beat him in the Classic w/ that setup he never will. Yet now your making excuses for the horse before the race.
When Chrome lost the Belmont didn't people say he didn't like being inside of horses. He ran better free and outside?

Lol.......Perry Martin pushed up on the horse racing gods,never a good idea.
He also made history.
I've never seen 100% of the people at every single horse racing forum/message board/twitter/Facebook agree on anything.
Until.....
The disgust for Perry Martin @ the Eclipse Awards the other night.
Dude is a taco short of a combo plate.......:eek::zz:

Joey you are missing the point here. The 12th hole is brutal at this distance at Gulfstream. Something like 1 for 18 all time since they adjusted the track. Arrogate would have trouble there too.

He's not missing the point, he knows that Big Brown was the lone winner from the 12 post. He was touting a horse trained by Baffert early(not unusual) and he was right so he will post about it in every thread regardless of topic. This will continue until the horse retires or he is right on another Baffert horse.

Racing is the big loser here as a great match up was compromised by a poor draw. It would have been nice to see this race with both horses drawn somewhere in the middle.

Well said, Tom :tro:

In the last 2 years they ran this distance on the dirt 12 times. Ten of those races had 7 or More entries. These are the winning post positions

So in other words the 1 thru 4 posts won half the races, and 5-6-7 won the other half ? Cal Chrome has push button speed and is posted outside. He will be wherever he wants and Espinosa will make sure he gets a good run.

No.. Post 3 won half and 5-6-7 the other. Posts 1-2 won as many as post 12

That button must have gotten stuck in the stretch of the Bc Classic.

However you choose to fantasize his trip, it's undeniable that he will have to travel 10-15 lengths further, minimum, than Arrogate will have to in the end.

If he pulls it off, he's cements his legacy as a horse of a lifetime; if he doesn't, it proves nothing.

That's the disappointing part. It will always be considered an asterisk on Arrogate's resume more than it will be a career-defining win.

I'm boycotting Gulfstream the rest of the meet.

Hope Perry and Co. scratch.

Chrome had it all his way in the BC, while Arrogate was the one who broke from outside, ended up rating and then nailing him at the wire. I just don't see Chrome getting a better trip than he did at Santa Anita. I do think Arrogate is a monster, that being said I don't remember him ever in a position where he had to take a lot of dirt. Even in the BC, Smith kept him clear and wide. Who knows how he could react to somehow getting pinned inside.

It would be different if they actually had good horses in the race but this is a field of plugs and it is entirely unacceptable for the fans.

We've talked about how the draw will impact California Chrome, but I have also been thinking about Arrogate's draw.

I would doubt that Arrogate will drive out from the rail to challenge the front and it seems that there will be at least three or four who will push early to hang out Chrome. This puts Arrogate probably fourth or fifth early along the rail perhaps up to five lengths from the front with plenty of traffic. Somehow, he'll need to navigate off the rail and find a clear run to set up a move by the far turn, certainly not a given.

Looking at this race, I have pretty much talked myself off of both Arrogate and Chrome.

I don't understand why he would be in "plenty of traffic" or, really, even any traffic. Arrogate is fast. He will leave for position. Others may outrun him, but only if it's a reasonably quick pace, which means there will be separation in the field, which means there won't be traffic. The reason we have a lot of traffic issues these days is specifically because of the constant slow paces which bunches up the fields. This does not rate to happen in the Pegasus.

According to the latest Paulick Report poll with about 2000 votes :

Arrogate : 26.7%
California Chrome : 62.7%
All Others : 10.6%

When did taking dirt, especially by experienced racehorses, suddenly become some sort of issue?

I think it may be, right now, the most misunderstood and overrated theoretical trip excuse.

The very fact that almost 70% of the voters opting for one of the big two have somehow chosen CA Chrome over Arrogate shows that it is a fan's vote and not a bettors one. CA Chrome is an internet darling. This is not a criticism, this is a fact. That is really all that vote represents....save that 10% like the field, which is probably too high, but relatively fair.

So what is your prediction for post-time odds for each?

Current Fixed Odds at Bovada

Thank you sir.

Push button speed does not mean when you are in the stretch drive when you are asking for a hoss' best run. but then, you already knew that, right ? You figured you'd take the potshot anyway. You'd fit in with the Giants secondary:D

Arrogate 3:5 and CA Chrome around 7:5.

I think you are offering what the odds "should" be, not what they will be.

There will probably be a lot of "sentimental" or "fan" money on CC - it will be closer to 4:5 and 1:1 - but yes, Arrogate will be favored

In a win pool of $1.5 to $2 million, I'm suspect of how much "fan" money is going to affect the odds, but you could be right.

I think fan money will be mostly small potatoes. The smart big money will certainly be scared off by the 12 hole.. I see 3:5 and 8:5 myself.. Any big money to be made will be in the horizontals in the improbable upset. They still need to run the race and crazy stuff could happen... Hopefully I can find a decent non favorite or 2 to single on the races leading up to this.

Interesting perspective as I did not project this race to be as strung out on the front end. On first glance, I could not see all three of Velazquez, Castellano, and Ortiz making this easy for the inside horse with Smith on board ... then I re-read your comment about the slow paces on our hometown NYRA circuit and was depending on the three key New York jockeys to cause the chaos.

I'm thinking Frank Stronach really got lucky having Arrogate/Chrome make it to this race.
The appeal/talent level of the two main players is major.
Digging a bit more into Arrogate/Chrome:

Arrogate:
3yo Champion/jaw dropping final time in the Travers/highest ranked horse in the world/great company lines in his Gr. 1 races.
He's 2 for 2 in Gr.1's(major Gr.1's),defeating 10 Gr.1 winners (that's the stat that jumps out at you). :eek::tro:

Chrome:
Dual Classic winner/Two time HOY/4 time Eclipse Award winner.........etc.
His Gr.1 resume is also huge.
He's 7 for 11 in Gr.1's........winning on 6 different courses(that might be his best stat).:tro:
He's beaten 19(at least) Gr.1 winning horses in his Gr.1 victories.
In fairness to Chrome,if you add up the amount of Gr.1 wins the 19 horses have accounted for the number bumps up quite a bit.:zz:

Moral of the post.....
I'd be surprised if future runnings of the Pegasus have the interest of this Saturday's race.

Yeah, next year it would take an Arrogate vs another Arrogate like horse to jump up in this crop of three year olds. Unlikely it will happen again.

As I think back to 2004 and reflect on the top 2 finishers in the BCC and the DWC, I see a similarity between MDO and Pleasantly Perfect and this year’s top 2 BCC runners, Chrome and Arrogate. In 2017 however, 13 years later, the DWC has been replaced by the inaugural running of the Pegasus world cup.
The big difference this year is the distance. While both the BCC and DWC were run at 10f on dirt, the Pegasus is run at 9f. And this change alone makes it impractical to compare the winning situation. While in 2004 MDO was headed for victory to be caught at the 9.5 f mark by PP. as was CC in 2017 by Arrogate in the BCC. The shorter race at GP (9f) may make the end result quite different. AT the 9f mark in the 2016 Bcc CC was a winner, will CC be a winner at 9f at Gulfstream.
How much are you willing to wager on this ?

I read TVG is offering 10 to 1 odds on either CC or Arrogate to win
9f makes the PWC a different animal than the DWC, and the question to be asked is at 9f can a horse other than the top 2 be the winner ?..and if TVG is offering 10 to 1 , building up pool sizes, would a place bet on anyhorse other than CC or Arrow, be the best wager on the day, as the inflated pools will offer much value on the place winner if the top 2 finish 1,3..or even worse.

Thoughts ?

TVG offer is only on new accounts. If I was setting up an account I would take the 10-1 on arrogate

25.00 max, and in lieu of the usual 250.00 sign up bonus, I presume... Tricky Devils ;)

Twinspires is running a 15% deposit bonus (up to $100) today. Don't have to be new.

Is that $100 max deposit or $100 max bonus? I tried looking on their site on my phone but the details get cut off.

hey, thanks for pointing this out! I just collected my bonus.

I would never had known this w/o your post.

Not to hijack the Pegasus thread the other cool TVG perk is for all the derby prep races you get your money back (maximum bet $15) if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd. Good way to bet some long shots. Lots of good deals out there.

Arrogate toyed with Chrome and could have gone for the lead at any point earlier in the race. Did anyone see the Travers?

Going with Chrome ...perfect post to stalk and pounce....arrogate must go from the 1 hole.....lots of early speed signed on and horses will go to the front. I know playing closers at G.P isn't vogue but I can see some tired front runners in the last 1/8th and set up beautifully for either Shaman Ghost or Semper Fortis to get the exacta.

BAM!!!

e. PgssWCIv-G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational S. Grade I. Purse $12,000,0
 

This weekend, NYRABets is having a $20 win bet rebate on the Pegasus World Cup if your horse finishes second. To me, this makes Arrogate an automatic play.