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-   -   Who was closer to the Triple Crown...Smarty or Alex? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5710)

Seattleallstar 10-16-2006 01:10 PM

hey Oracle ive mellowed out as of late, I think im a new man

oracle80 10-16-2006 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
How would you explain a horse like Saint Liam then? He only ran his best numbers if heavily pressed (not that his others sucked).

I don't know that I agree with that.
His Foster was freaky fast on the sheets and he "jogged" in that race.

Bold Reasoning 10-16-2006 01:10 PM

We all have our own opinions on particular horses, but to digress... I believe Bernardini will run huge in the BCC. Even the conservatives admire and respect this horse; people like Mike Watchmaker and Todd Pletcher are on the list. :)

oracle80 10-16-2006 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar
hey Oracle ive mellowed out as of late, I think im a new man

I've heard this same story 1000 times. Go a month without a meltdown for a change and then we can talk about you being a new man. I sure wouldn't bet money on that.

Seattleallstar 10-16-2006 01:17 PM

I dont like or care to hear from Ashley anymore, ive had it

Cajungator26 10-16-2006 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar
I dont like or care to hear from Ashley anymore, ive had it

We shall see... you are a glutton for punishment.

oracle80 10-16-2006 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar
I dont like or care to hear from Ashley anymore, ive had it

Gee it only took you 4 years to see she couldn't care less about you?
I can tell you that we couldn't care less about her as well.
The fact that you still speak about her constantly means your obsession is alive and well.
Make sure you have your meds stocked up.

dalakhani 10-16-2006 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bold Reasoning
I am not trying to refute what you said or argue with you. I have only one point to make. I was at the Travers in 2004. It started raining about twenty minutes before the Travers; my husband and I were caught in the deluge as we walked to the track. We needed a row boat to navigate. I think the race was even run several minutes early, so we could not bet! We had just gotten to the track as it was being run. I had bet Birdstone in the Belmont, so I was going to put him in some big exactas. Anyway, my only point is that track seemed very off, so Birdstone won on a pea soup track that day.

I think your memory is a little bit off. I was at the track all day that day. Yes, there was a storm but it didnt start until AFTER the race. There was no soupy track. Now, it was pretty much a monsoon after it started but the race began as the dark clouds rolled ominously in and the thunder was crackling.

Yes, it began a few minutes before schedule and they loaded QUICKLY but that was to ensure that they did run on a dry track. Im sure you can find the find replay somewhere.

oracle80 10-16-2006 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
I think your memory is a little bit off. I was at the track all day that day. Yes, there was a storm but it didnt start until AFTER the race. There was no soupy track. Now, it was pretty much a monsoon after it started but the race began as the dark clouds rolled ominously in and the thunder was crackling.

Yes, it began a few minutes before schedule and they loaded QUICKLY but that was to ensure that they did run on a dry track. Im sure you can find the find replay somewhere.


Track was dry and fast for that race. Pea Soup? Do you have alzheimer's?

Sightseek 10-16-2006 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
I don't know that I agree with that.
His Foster was freaky fast on the sheets and he "jogged" in that race.

Did they adjust the Beyer for his race against Zapper? I thought it was higher than 114, which tied his best two performances while having the race all to himself:

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/saintliam.pdf

The Whitney was obscene. It is funny how people seem all the more ready to crown Bernardini as great and hated on Saint Liam when Bernie hasn't run a race like SL.

eurobounce 10-16-2006 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
The whip will get you a length, tops, according to the finest jockeys.
Its a fallacy that the whip can get you so many lengths.
Also, most horses run best when they are free and running how they wanna run with no pressure alongside of them.
Its a different story when another horse gets in your face and you have to quicken NOW instead of when you wanna quicken.
I can't recall too many horses who "jogged" in a big stakes race who then came back and ran better in a dogfight.
If anyone can, name them.

Whip will get you about 1 length is very accurate I believe. I have heard some say it can get you 2 at times.

SniperSB23 10-16-2006 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Did they adjust the Beyer for his race against Zapper? I thought it was higher than 114, which tied his best two performances while having the race all to himself:

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/saintliam.pdf

The Whitney was obscene. It is funny how people seem all the more ready to crown Bernardini as great and hated on Saint Liam when Bernie hasn't run a race like SL.

I know on the equibase numbers that the Woodward was right up there with Ghostzapper's best figure wise. The Beyer came in low, I'd guess in part because at the time no one believed Saint Liam was capable of running a 120 figure so just assumed GZ ran a poor race (by his standards).

oracle80 10-16-2006 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Did they adjust the Beyer for his race against Zapper? I thought it was higher than 114, which tied his best two performances while having the race all to himself:

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/saintliam.pdf

The Whitney was obscene. It is funny how people seem all the more ready to crown Bernardini as great and hated on Saint Liam when Bernie hasn't run a race like SL.

His Whitney was indeed pretty sensational.
So was his Woodward.
So were a lot of his races.

philcski 10-16-2006 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by repent
you are a freaking moron.

the Travers track was listed as "fast".
the rain came after the race that day.

but Im not even sayng The Stone hated an off track.
what I am saying is that the one time they met on a dry track, The Stone beat him.
new to the sport?
maybe, depends on perspective.
but the verification of your expertise relies on someone else, anyone else, agreeing with your opinion.
what the hell kind of sense does that make.
I oay the b*tch next door to say that Birdstone was a better horse.
that does not make it any more true or false.

and you want me to find a "credible" person to say that Birdstone was not the recipient of a "dream trip"?
what makes someone credible and what encompasses a dream trip?
does someone on this board with x amount of posts make them credible?
do they need to be a full time writer with the Daily Racing Form?
or can they be a degenerate at Manor Downs that i see when I stop by to pick up a form?


your position is full of holes and all the smarty party agreeing with you will not make it any stronger.

Birdstone got the right pace scenario he needed to be most effective on Belmont Stakes day.
so what?
it does not make his win any less valid than if smarty jones had won the race while getting an easy lead.

stop worrying about my experience within the game or my historical perspective.
they are not relevant to the argument at hand.

like I said, nothing has changed but the surrounding bullsh*t that has grown.
Ed was right on point with that one.



Repent

Did you even WATCH the travers that day?? it was pouring rain during the race so hard they actually MOVED THE START UP 3 MINUTES, costing NYRA likely a million in handle. The track was soup. But you wouldn't know that since you play at MANOR freakin' DOWNS... is that really a racetrack?!? do they have TV's there or do they broadcast the simulcast over a shortwave radio??

Someday you'll grow up. I hope.

oracle80 10-16-2006 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
Whip will get you about 1 length is very accurate I believe. I have heard some say it can get you 2 at times.

I've never heard more than 1 but you get the point anyways.

eurobounce 10-16-2006 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Did they adjust the Beyer for his race against Zapper? I thought it was higher than 114, which tied his best two performances while having the race all to himself:

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/saintliam.pdf

The Whitney was obscene. It is funny how people seem all the more ready to crown Bernardini as great and hated on Saint Liam when Bernie hasn't run a race like SL.

You are missing the point--he hasnt needed to run a race like that is the point. He is so good that his less than best performance is good enough to win by open lengths.

oracle80 10-16-2006 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Did you even WATCH the travers that day?? it was pouring rain during the race so hard they actually MOVED THE START UP 3 MINUTES, costing NYRA likely a million in handle. The track was soup. But you wouldn't know that since you play at MANOR freakin' DOWNS... is that really a racetrack?!? do they have TV's there or do they broadcast the simulcast over a shortwave radio??

Someday you'll grow up. I hope.

Well I don't play manor Downs and was right there. It rained 20 minutes before the race briefly, then cleared up briefly, the minute they hit the line it was indeed pouring but the track was fast with no top water for the race.
If they hand't moved up the post 3 minutes it would have been run in slop.
But the track was fast, I saw the race and watched it live, not on tv.

dalakhani 10-16-2006 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Did you even WATCH the travers that day?? it was pouring rain during the race so hard they actually MOVED THE START UP 3 MINUTES, costing NYRA likely a million in handle. The track was soup. But you wouldn't know that since you play at MANOR freakin' DOWNS... is that really a racetrack?!? do they have TV's there or do they broadcast the simulcast over a shortwave radio??

Someday you'll grow up. I hope.

I was there. It was dry and fast. They moved it up so it would start before the rains came.

Sightseek 10-16-2006 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
You are missing the point--he hasnt needed to run a race like that is the point. He is so good that his less than best performance is good enough to win by open lengths.

I guess that is where Bernardini's competition supports the "but, who did he beat?" folks. Would he run faster if facing a Ghostzapper or have we seen Bernie's best?

oracle80 10-16-2006 01:31 PM

http://horseracing.about.com/od/late...racing+results

Note the part that says:
The rain held off until after the race. Then, the storm came with such fury that New York Racing Association officials cancelled the day's 12th and final race.



Sorry, the track was fast.

Seattleallstar 10-16-2006 01:32 PM

no they didnt I remember, The Cliffs Edge won with Gary Stevens up

dalakhani 10-16-2006 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Well I don't play manor Downs and was right there. It rained 20 minutes before the race briefly, then cleared up briefly, the minute they hit the line it was indeed pouring but the track was fast with no top water for the race.
If they hand't moved up the post 3 minutes it would have been run in slop.
But the track was fast, I saw the race and watched it live, not on tv.

So did I and i dont know how people are remembering it wrong. It happened just as you say.

I took off my shoes and ran to the car right after cashing. Im sure there is video somewhere.

philcski 10-16-2006 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
http://horseracing.about.com/od/late...racing+results

Note the part that says:
The rain held off until after the race. Then, the storm came with such fury that New York Racing Association officials cancelled the day's 12th and final race.



Sorry, the track was fast.

I remember the rain+lightning coming DURING the race... perhaps i'm wrong (i was there but inside the grandstand)... i recall they had lights on the finish, it got so dark...

either way, my point is if anything Birdstone VALIDATED Smarty Jones and repent has to give up on his childish battle against everyone on this horse he lost, miserably, 2 years ago. Like him or not you have to respect him.

dalakhani 10-16-2006 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
I remember the rain+lightning coming DURING the race... perhaps i'm wrong (i was there but inside the grandstand)... i recall they had lights on the finish, it got so dark...

either way, my point is if anything Birdstone VALIDATED Smarty Jones and repent has to give up on his childish battle against everyone on this horse he lost, miserably, 2 years ago. Like him or not you have to respect him.

I respect Smarty Jones but at the same time I think Repent is saying that Birdstone deserves more respect than he has ever received. The truth is, Birdstone could have been an excellent rival to Smarty in my opinion. In truth, his lame performances only came on bad tracks.

As for who was closer to the crown, i am going to go against the grain and say Afleet Alex. Alex had a much easier crop and a less than ideal trip in the derby. He was much better than the rest of the junk that was in his generation. I think Alex wins that KYD if run again. I think Smarty has a tough time winning that Belmont against those horses.

philcski 10-16-2006 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
I respect Smarty Jones but at the same time I think Repent is saying that Birdstone deserves more respect than he has ever received. The truth is, Birdstone could have been an excellent rival to Smarty in my opinion. In truth, his lame performances only came on bad tracks.

As for who was closer to the crown, i am going to go against the grain and say Afleet Alex. Alex had a much easier crop and a less than ideal trip in the derby. He was much better than the rest of the junk that was in his generation. I think Alex wins that KYD if run again. I think Smarty has a tough time winning that Belmont against those horses.

I guess you don't know the history with Repent and Smarty Jones...

IMO they BOTH should have won the TC. AA went into an area of the track in the Derby that was an absolute sandpit for some odd reason (i was sitting at the top of the stretch and EVERY horse that went over that section stopped badly, including Madcap Escapade which was a layup against her group). SJ was by far the best of his generation but unfortunately lost a vicious pace battle waged by two vindictive pinhead jockeys...

oracle80 10-16-2006 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
I guess you don't know the history with Repent and Smarty Jones...

IMO they BOTH should have won the TC. AA went into an area of the track in the Derby that was an absolute sandpit for some odd reason (i was sitting at the top of the stretch and EVERY horse that went over that section stopped badly, including Madcap Escapade which was a layup against her group). SJ was by far the best of his generation but unfortunately lost a vicious pace battle waged by two vindictive pinhead jockeys...

I think Smarty faced better and it took BOTH of those pinheads and a Travers winner to beat him.
Aa did go to a deeper path, but thats not quite the same.
I never answered the original question in this thread because I felt it was an insult to Smarty Jones to even consider that their was any question about this.

philcski 10-16-2006 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
I think Smarty faced better and it took BOTH of those pinheads and a Travers winner to beat him.
Aa did go to a deeper path, but thats not quite the same.
I never answered the original question in this thread because I felt it was an insult to Smarty Jones to even consider that their was any question about this.

I've been a self confessed SJ "goo goo" right from that cold day on the Aqu inner, so I'm with you. AA earned my respect, however...

oracle80 10-16-2006 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
I've been a self confessed SJ "goo goo" right from that cold day on the Aqu inner, so I'm with you. AA earned my respect, however...

AA has my total respect, don't misunderstand me.
But SJ's Belmont may never quite get the respect it deserves. All you have to do is take a look at the chart and see where RHT and Eddington finished and that they had dropped dead before they even made the turn.
Imagine how great SJ was to have gotten beat a length after geing hounded on both sides by two horses who stopped to a complete walk suffering the effects of the same duel? And he was still miles clear of the third horse.
Thats the bravest race I ever saw a horse run.

philcski 10-16-2006 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
AA has my total respect, don't misunderstand me.
But SJ's Belmont may never quite get the respect it deserves. All you have to do is take a look at the chart and see where RHT and Eddington finished and that they had dropped dead before they even made the turn.
Imagine how great SJ was to have gotten beat a length after geing hounded on both sides by two horses who stopped to a complete walk suffering the effects of the same duel? And he was still miles clear of the third horse.
Thats the bravest race I ever saw a horse run.

Not to forget, the original horse he was up front with (Purge) spit the bit and finished dead last, beaten almost 40 lengths. SJ was the gamest horse i've ever seen in person. I cried my eyeballs out when he won the Derby... (having hit for about $8k didn't hurt either!!)

philcski 10-16-2006 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus
Tell me that you were wiping the raindrops from your eyes and that you weren't ACTUALLY crying!

I did see people around me crying at the Belmont Stakes when he finished second. Women were crying. I thought it was insane.

I understood the public's instant fascination with "Smarty" -- I wonder how many think about him now, though? -- so I didn't whoop it up when Birdstone crossed the wire first. Two others dudes and I cashed out rather well, but we didn't gloat.

I really was and not afraid to admit it (didn't go to CD that year even though I tried desperately to find a flight at the last minute)... i cashed a futures bet on him at 150-1 and i just got really emotionally attached watching him progress through the preps. never had before (i'm a bettor first) and haven't since.

I think about "what could have been" a lot... I have a nice framed photo of him winning the Derby in my house so it's a good reminder!

philcski 10-16-2006 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus
Now that is a future wager! Great job!

I wasn't convinced about him through the preps because I got caught up in the pedigree angle, which now means less and less in regards to the Kentucky Derby. (It means much more in the Belmont Stakes, though.)

However, his BRISNET pace figures were clearly the best of the lot that spring. He had a great motor, and could distribute his speed more efficiently than the others.

Thanks! it was a once in a lifetime thing, probably.

Pedigree 'capping really seems to have hit a wall in the Derby. That year's sires were miler-miler-miler-sprinter, last year (well, holy bull was good at everything)-sprint-miler, this year was long-all-long. no real pattern versus the old days where if you didn't have the longwinded pedigree you were a pretty easy toss.

A friend of mine had sent me the BRIS numbers and they actually had him rated #1 from his 2nd race on, plus it confirmed my figure on the Aqu race... (had it about 10 points higher than Beyer)

slotdirt 10-16-2006 03:52 PM

There was a few years there (Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality, Northern Afleet) where sprinters were siring Classic winners. Darned if that didn't throw the breeding experts into a tizzy.

oracle80 10-16-2006 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
There was a few years there (Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality, Northern Afleet) where sprinters were siring Classic winners. Darned if that didn't throw the breeding experts into a tizzy.

Yeah slot, but those "experts" got up off the mat pretty quickly and explained to us how they were right anyway.
All you have to is go back far enough in the pedigree until you get to a stamina sire(go far enough back and you can find one in just about any horse), and then explain that the horse they said wasn't bred to go that far was bred to go that far all along.

Kasept 10-16-2006 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
There was a few years there (Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality, Northern Afleet) where sprinters were siring Classic winners. Darned if that didn't throw the breeding experts into a tizzy.

John..

Except that they were all carrying on the outrageous success of the Raise a Native line in the race..

oracle80 10-16-2006 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
John..

Except that they were all carrying on the outrageous success of the Raise a Native line in the race..

But they weren't fashionable and proven to have sired a classic winner, until they did. LOL!!
My question to those experts when they start citing their statistical data always would be something like "Yeah but has Elusive Quality ever sired a horse as fast as SJ is?" or "Yeah, but has Northern Afleet ever sired a horse as good as AA is?" Blank stares usually follow, as if you have disrupted their world of stats and numbers with an impossibility too mind numbing to grasp.

oracle80 10-16-2006 04:09 PM

To put it in another perspective. Should all the kids who wanna be tennis stars in a few years not even bother to take up the game and practice and try regardless of their passion for it, athletic ability, or talent shown?
Thing is that their is a youngster out there with the greatest tennis pedigree ever. Hes by the sire Andre Agassi out a mare named Steffi Graf(By Peter Graf) and obviously with that pedigree he will win every grand slam event he enters once hes old enough to compete. Unless of course there is a kid out there who some day grows up to be more talented and athletic, or who perhaps has more heart and desire.

Downthestretch55 10-16-2006 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
To put it in another perspective. Should all the kids who wanna be tennis stars in a few years not even bother to take up the game and practice and try regardless of their passion for it, athletic ability, or talent shown?
Thing is that their is a youngster out there with the greatest tennis pedigree ever. Hes by the sire Andre Agassi out a mare named Steffi Graf(By Peter Graf) and obviously with that pedigree he will win every grand slam event he enters once hes old enough to compete. Unless of course there is a kid out there who some day grows up to be more talented and athletic, or who perhaps has more heart and desire.

Oracle,
I agree with you on this post. Very well said.
That's why I think that breeding takes a back seat to training.
That said, do you know which stallion has sired the most TC winners?
I don't, but I'll guess it's Native Dancer or Northern Dancer.
DTS


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