Will this horse get Orb like hype in the next two weeks?

They seem similar to me in ways.

True, he didn't look as good as the hype portrayed him to be, but to say he was completely exposed is premature.

Hell, I didn't think he was going to win going down the backside.

Comparing Orb to AP is ridiculous.

FTFY :)

I find it amazing that Espinoza worked out a trip from the 18 hole, where he was able to stay wide and not take any dirt to the face. That 5 trips in a row where he's been clear and clean.

Why?

He has put in some terrific rides in the TC races and is almost certain to be over bet in next year's Derby like Borel has been.

The only thing is Nick, he's usually riding a Baffert rocket that's taking money anyway.

Can't remember where i read this, but Doug S. was preaching to everyone that would listed that just because a horse is winning easy like AP did in Arkansas, doesn't mean he will have another gear when asked hard. Compared it to his evaluation of Officer winning all those races geared down, then having nothing more when faced with adversity in the BC Juvenile. He was spot on.

A better question is how you can compare Orb to AP.

What possible similarities do they have besides winning the Derby?

That is often a complete fallacy, but not always.

We've all seen horses get asked by the jock and respond by speeding up.

We've all seen horses having to gear down because of traffic trouble, break free and explode.

There is little difference between those two scenarios and one in which a horse going easy then getting asked for more.

The hype, for one thing. After the Derby, the public and media both talked as if the Triple Crown was a foregone conclusion. What price did Orb go off at in Baltimore, 3-5?

I wonder if the rioters will riot outside Pimlico.

Yeah, but AP still won.

Nobody with any functioning gray matter thought he was going to win the Triple Crown. In fact, most people on here seemed to think his Derby win would be his last major win.

I think he wins TC I think CJ's fig is real not BSF. I was sure Big Brown would have won TC as well and Smarty Jones to boot so what do I know

Name trainer?

Favorite, very well regarded coming into the Derby and delivered?

Won in impressive fashion?

Had cake trips that hindered several in the field?

Will be 3/5 in their next start when they probably dont deserve to be any thing better than 7/5?


Just saying, nothing in common at all.

Just saying

What was CJ's fig Freddy?

Smarty should have won, but was clearly a target and has his chances sabotaged.

Big Brown? I would have been very surprised had he hit the board.

Your equating Baffert/Shug to say Motion? ok

Orb had TONS of hype into the Derby Freddy.

The beyers are only a couple points different, one had a fast pace, one had a very moderate pace.

He is going to be 3/5.

We can check back after the race, he is a horrible bet at his odds of winning and they are not 3/5.

no more curfew. no riots or protests since charges brought vs the police.

You also left off that they both breathe oxygen, eat grassy stuff, poop, pee, drink water, have four legs, at least partial tails, have two eyes, etc..

I stand corrected.

it's true that horses might not have more than what they had. who knows, ap might not have prevailed had the jock not worked on him down the stretch.
but horses don't necessarily have to be encouraged. when they hit their stride, good luck.
for instance, dr fager when he broke the mile record. secretariat when he coasted in the belmont. and then some horses quit when they get out front...buckpassers moves had to be timed just right.

Agree. For some people, that is a real issue in getting them interested in the sport.

And maybe if Firing Line had been given a crack when prompted to switch leads he would have and this thread would have been titled Firing Line.

I didn't say the horse was completely exposed. I said the over the top hype was completely exposed.

I have never suggested American Pharoah wasn't a good horse. I said that the hype he was generating was not backed up by his on-track performance. The response I usually got was some BS about him displaying mythical qualities in the morning. This was clearly not backed up by his performance in the Derby....which was good, but hardly in the pantheon of great Derby performances.

As far as what he looked like down the backstretch....you are in the minority. Had he been the horse some experts wanted us to believe, he would have won by more, without being hit 32 times.

Quite a few horses, good horses, have followed up Derby wins with far more decisive Preakness performances. It surely possible that American Pharoah could be one of those. We'll see.

I just didn't think he was moving as well as he usually does (down the backstretch).

And I am in the minority apparently, and that is often a good thing. I was adamant with DrugS, for instance, that Big Brown wouldn't win the Belmont, and in fact, should be kept out of the race.

The Pharoah is a real difficult horse to get a read on. There are things about him that are awesome, but others that are equally worrying.

I honestly thought that he was in trouble with a half mile to go. Maybe I just bought into the myth and figured he'd be moving in hand until the top of the lane.

But Matt, how could you conclude that after The Don, Don Guido or DG, whichever your prefer, says he hardly broke a sweat on Saturday?

Well Guido did win a million dollars on that race so I trust him.

Yeah, I don't really get the not breaking a sweat thing.

I must have missed that gem. Things haven't changed around here :zz:

I would presume American Pharaoh would be under at least a little pressure to keep pace with the likes of Dortmund and Firing Line, who picked it up a bit from the 1/2 mile fraction to the 3/4 fraction.

Definitely not the same as chasing Bridget's Big Luvy anyways.

Perhaps that's it, but maybe not. I was thinking he was having an off day, but I have no way of knowing that.

You liking those odds in your last paragraph at say 3/5?

Seeing that American Pharaoh won, clearly he didn't have an off day.

Upstart probably had an off day though.

I agree, it doesn't seem likely, hence my ambiguity regarding this race.

It is possible though for a horse to have an off day and win though.

Yeah, especially in the Kentucky Derby.

You have to base your analysis on what you saw...not what you wish you saw. What we saw was a horse getting a very good trip, and being ridden very hard, that proved best. Hey, there's no shame in that...but he ran his race, handled the track, etc. He's a very good horse. He's not a super horse...at least not yet.

He's also a horse that missed the biggest 2YO race of the year, in his back yard, and was then off for five months. He has returned to run three races of 3 7/16 miles in distance in seven weeks time...and needs to run another 2 11/16 miles worth of races over the next five weeks. That's 5 races and over 6 miles in distance in just 12 weeks. I surely wish the connections the best of luck, and certainly hope they win in two weeks, but I'm also a betting man....and there is NO way I would bet on American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown at any kind of short price.

So, let me get this straight.

If AP rolls by open lengths in the Preakness, will you come back and say he maybe had an off day in the Derby?

His durability is a serious question.