Oh of course, I'm not doubting his potential to continue to improve. I'm just not sure that improvement would be enough to be a major factor. He could move up as you suggest, as could many others in the field, and run a great race. Problem is in the Derby that might mean only 5th place...

You want that number to be small, not big. The amount above 100% is closely related to track take, but not quite the same. It doesn't have anything to do with the number of horses, but every horse that might be in the race should be included in the line.

(The number 143% corresponds to a 30% track takeout.)


Here's what you do to calculate that number if you have an odds line.

1. Convert each horse's odds to a "fair" win probability. For example, if a horse is even money, to be "fair" it should win 50% of the time. So the "fair" win probability is 50%.

If a horse is 3-1, then the "fair" win probability is 25%. (because with 3-1 odds, if you win 1 out of 4 times, you'll break even.

The general rule is this:
if the odds are "fair", then WinProbability = 1/(1+Odds)

2. Add up all the "WinProbabilities". If the line is completely fair, it would add to 100%. If the odds have been set lower than fair odds, then the total of the WinProbabilities will be greater than 100%. The 17.5% track takeout at CD will cause the "WinProbabilites" (calclulated from a race's closing odds) to sum to 121%

When a futures line is as big as 143%, it's pathetic. It's like betting into a 30% track take. (And the fact that Bovada's didn't include every possible entrant makes it even worse.)

--Dunbar

One Lucky Dane out of Derby after being vanned off the track today. :(

He is going for radiographs.

He's a toss for me. He was closer to the moderate pace and still unable to hold off Frosted. He will be getting a new jockey and there's a chance he bounces.

WEEKEND WORKOUT VIDEO

DORTMUND (4/18) http://www.hrtv.com/videos/workout-dortmund-41815/

Worst news comes from last of 11 Derby workers
By Jay Privman

ARCADIA, Calif. – When it came to Kentucky Derby workouts on Saturday, they saved the worst news for last.

One Lucky Dane, second last time out in the Santa Anita Derby, was taken off the Kentucky Derby trail after suffering a condylar fracture to his left front ankle in a workout here at Santa Anita.

One Lucky Dane was pulled up following the work – he was timed in 59.20 seconds for five furlongs -- by jockey Rafael Bejarano, who said One Lucky Dane was favoring his left front leg. He was given a ride back to trainer Bob Baffert’s barn in a horse ambulance, and got off the van just fine, but was missing his left front shoe.

As One Lucky Dane was walked to cool out, he began to favor, just slightly, his left front. Before radiographs were taken by Dr. Vince Baker, Baffert said regardless of what they revealed, One Lucky Dane was off the Derby trail.

Radiographs later revealed the fracture. Baffert said surgery would be performed, and screws inserted to aid healing. The chances of him racing again are good.

“This is just a reminder of how things can go south in a hurry,” Baffert said.

The defection of One Lucky Dane means Madefromlucky is now in the top 20 for points should his connections desire to run in the Derby on May 2. Keen Ice is now 21st on the list, followed by Frammento.

One Lucky Dane was the last of 11 Derby contenders who worked at five different venues on Saturday. The other works went off without a hitch.

Earlier at Santa Anita, Dortmund, who beat One Lucky Dane in the Santa Anita Derby, and Firing Line both drilled.

At Palm Beach Downs, trainer Todd Pletcher worked Itsaknockout, Materiality, and Stanford before jumping on a plane to Kentucky, where Pletcher worked Carpe Diem later in the morning at Keeneland.

Danzig Moon, International Star, and Keen Ice worked at Churchill Downs, while Tencendur worked at Belmont Park.

One Lucky Dane came on the track after the last of three renovation breaks. Soon after entering the track, and well before he was to work, a horse got loose near the finish and dashed up the stretch, missing One Lucky Dane and his workmate.

One Lucky Dane then continued to jog up the stretch, and began his work on the backstretch at the five-furlong pole, breaking off about three lengths behind his company.

Bejarano had to urge One Lucky Dane to get past his company, which he did, but a quarter-mile later, Bejarano brought him to a halt and hopped off.

“This is why I have white hair,” Baffert muttered.

Bejarano rode with One Lucky Dane in the horse ambulance back to Baffert’s barn.

“His left-front went completely down,” Bejarano said.

“You did the right thing,” Baffert told him.

A little more than an hour earlier, Dortmund worked five furlongs in 58.80 seconds under jockey Martin Garcia, a time that equaled the best of the morning among 59 at the distance. Dortmund, also trained by Baffert, broke off behind one workmate, then had another range up outside him near the top of the lane, and he put away both tag-team rivals.

“It was good experience for him,” said Garcia, who has the mount in the Derby. “In between horses, no problem. Got a little dirt, no problem. I’m very happy.”

Firing Line, with jockey Gary Stevens up, broke off about 20 seconds after Dortmund for a five-furlong work that was timed officially in 1:00.40. He started about three lengths behind his workmate and kicked clear late in an impressive drill.

“It was an ideal work,” said his trainer, Simon Callaghan, who wanted Firing Line to sit behind his company, which he did.

Both Dortmund and Firing Line are scheduled to have their final works at Santa Anita next Saturday before flying to Kentucky on Sunday, April 26.

At Palm Beach Downs, Materiality and Stanford worked together both received times of 1:00.52 for five furlongs, while Itsaknockout went four furlongs in 48.17 seconds. All three are scheduled to fly to Kentucky on Tuesday and go to Churchill Downs for their final drills.

Materiality was particularly impressive Saturday, as he was last weekend.

“I thought it was another very good work,” Pletcher said. “A nice, steady, aggressive five-eighths; he seemed to be well in hand throughout. The horse continues to train really well. You have to respect how difficult the race is, but at the same time you have an undefeated horse who seems to be training super.”

Carpe Diem worked a half-mile in 48 seconds under John Velazquez and galloped out five furlongs in 1:00.40 and six furlongs in 1:13.80.

“I thought he worked super,” said Pletcher, who said Carpe Diem would have his final work next weekend at either Keeneland or Churchill.

John Velazquez has to choose between Carpe Diem and Materiality. Javier Castellano and Mike Smith have been mentioned by Pletcher as possible replacements for whoever Velazquez doesn’t choose, though Smith is in play for Bolo and Far Right, too.

At Churchill Downs, International Star worked five furlongs in 1:01.80 for trainer Mike Maker while easily besting a workmate.

Danzig Moon blazed five furlongs in 58 seconds while in company for trainer Mark Casse. He finished about a neck behind his workmate.

Keen Ice worked alone for trainer Dale Romans and got an official clocking of 1:13.20 for six furlongs.

At Belmont, Tencendur worked a half-mile in 47.16 seconds for trainer George Weaver. Jockey Manny Franco was aboard, and could have the mount in the Derby. Jose Ortiz, who rode Tencendur in the Wood, rides Upstart in the Derby.

Tencendur was scheduled to leave New York by van on Sunday and is scheduled to have his final Derby workout next weekend at Churchill Downs.

--additional reporting by David Grening, Byron King, Marty McGee, and Mike Welsch

I can get tossing horses like Carpe Diem, who is likely going to be grossly over bet. But this horse at like 30 or 35-1 can move forward. A few good points have been made in this thread about him.

I would think Castellano over Smith on Materiality, no?

Owners are pushing for Smith (there's a New Mexico tie-in); Pletcher prefers Castellano.

Well if it's Smith we'll know who's gonna be on the lead.

I agree with you, btw. Especially at the 60-1 being offered offshore.

--Dunbar

Stink eye from Dortmund today :D

Attachment 2499

Tough news from yesterday for the connections.

Bejarano confirmed on Bolo. Live exotics horse.

Borel gets El Kabeir back.

Kentucky Oaks

1. Condo Commando (Rodriguez)
2. I’m a Chatterbox (Jones)
3. Stellar Wind (Sadler)
4. Birdatthewire (Romans)
5. Lovely Maria (Jones)
6. Include Betty (Proctor)
7. Oceanwave (Catalano)
8. Angela Renee (Pletcher)
9. Sarah Sis (Mason)
10. Maybellene -- Possible (Baffert)
11. Eskenformoney (Pletcher)
12. Puca (Mott)
13. Shook Up (Asmussen)
14. Luminance -- Possible (Baffert)
------------------------
15. Forever Unbridled (Stewart)
16. Achiever’s Legacy (Hollendorfer)
17. Money'soncharlotte (Breen)
18. Danessa Deluxe (Navarro)
19. Callback (Baffert)
20. Wonder Gal (Gyarmati)

Oaks & Derby Day Undercard Stakes Probables
 

$400,000 ALYSHEBA (GII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1)

Call Me George
Honor Code
Noble Bird
Ride On Curlin

Possible: Den's Legacy


$300,000 LA TROIENNE (GI) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1)

America
Frivolous
Molly Morgan
My Miss Sophia
Pearl Turn
Sheer Drama
Stopchargingmaria
Tiz Windy
Wedding Toast

Possible: Interest Free


$200,000 EIGHT BELLES (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1)

Ekati's Phaeton
Fancy and Flashy
Lavender Chrissie
Mizz Money
Promise Me Silver
Streetheart
Taylor S
Wonder Gal


$150,000 EDGEWOOD PRESENTED BY FORCHT BANK (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1)

Pangburn
Peace and War
Quality Rocks
Qunita Verde (IRE)

Possible: B Rockett, Sweet Opportunity, Whimsicality


$150,000 TWIN SPIRES TURF SPRINT (GIII)(Entries taken April 28; race May 1)

Berlino Di Tiger (BRZ)
Buster Rose
Channel Marker
Good Deed
Heitai
Positive Side
Power Alert (AUS)
Something Extra
Undrafted

$500,000 WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC (GI) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2)

Chocolate Ride
Finnegans Wake
Seek Again
Umgiyo (AUS)


$500,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2)

Bayern
C. Zee
Coup de Grace
Pants On Fire
Private Zone

Possible: The Big Beast


$300,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS DISTAFF TURF MILE (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2)

Coffee Clique
I'm Already Sexy
Lady Lara (IRE)
Maid On a Mission
Personal Diary
Sandiva (IRE)
Solid Appeal
Strike Charmer
Tepin


$300,000 HUMANA DISTAFF (GI) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2)

Classic Point
Dame Dorothy
Judy the Beauty
Princess Violet
Sweet Reason
Sweet Whiskey
You Bought Her

Possible: Clearly Confused


$250,000 AMERICAN TURF (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2)

A Lot
Conquest Typhoon
Firespike
Force the Pass
Metaboss
Tuba
World Approval

Possible: Royal Son


$200,000 PAT DAY MILE (GIII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2)

Competitive Edge
Conquest Bigluck E
Hillbilly Royalty
Pain and Misery
Prospect Park
Toasting Master
Where's the Moon

prospect park in the holy roller mile ? scared of the Dortmund/Firing line ?

anyone else here wondering/concerned about so many of the KD horses not even having a work here? i know that the track changes and that workouts this late in the game probably dont do much but i can think of 3 horses off the top of my head that had really good workouts pre KD and ran very very well. Just wish they would all get at least one spin around the track. Ive heard trainers say that if the horse hates CD working here isn't going to matter and that the day of the race it is what it is, course im sure bettors may not be too pumped about that response id sure as heck like to know that the horse hates the track before i bet on them.

Shall there be the special 2 day pick 3??

Anyone know odds for a TC winner this year?

Will there be a Triple Crown Winner in 2015?

Yes
+600

No
-1000

I don't know but to me fair odds on American Pharoah winning the TC would be 24-32 to 1.

He should be 20/1 on making it through all three races, one could say.

That would be more than fair.

At Bookmaker.com all you can get on American Pharoah is 10-1. But you can get 150-1 on Upstart.

ODDS TO WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN IN 2015
AMERICAN PHAROAH +1000
DORTMUND +2100
CARPE DIEM +2400
MUBTAAHIJ +5000
MATERIALITY +5000
FIRING LINE +9000
FROSTED +7250
UPSTART +15000
INTERNATIONAL STAR +20000
EL KABEIR +17500
FAR RIGHT +30000
BOLO +55000
DANZIG MOON +35000
WAR STORY +60000
STANFORD +60000
OCHO OCHO OCHO +60000
ITSAKNOCKOUT +60000
TENCENDUR +70000
MR. Z +80000
MADE FROM LUCKY +65000
KEEN ICE +60000
FRAMMENTO +50000

They have +550 for any horse winninng TC; -750 for no TC.

--Dunbar

Madefromlucky officially demures; Keen Ice moves in, Frammento on deck..

5/2/15 (CD): Kentucky Derby (10f)

1. International Star (Maker/Mena)
2. Dortmund (Baffert/M. Garcia)
3. Carpe Diem (Pletcher/Velazquez)
4. American Pharoah (Baffert/V. Espinoza)
5. Frosted (McLaighlin/Rosario)
6. Mubtaahij (de Kock/Soumillon)
7. Materiality (Pletcher/Castellano)
8. El Kabeir (Terranova/Borel)
9. Upstart (Violette/J. Ortiz)
10. Far Right (Moquett/Smith)

11. Itsaknockout (Pletcher/Saez)
12. Firing Line (S. Callaghan/Stevens)
13. Danzig Moon (Casse/Leparoux)
14. War Story (Amoss/Talamo)
15. Tencendur (Weaver/Franco)
16. Stanford (Pletcher/Geroux?)
17. Mr. Z (Lukas/Vasquez)
18. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Cassidy/TBA)
19. Bolo (Gaines/Bejarano)
20. Keen Ice (Romans/Desormeaux)
-------------
21. Frammento (Zito)
22. Bold Conquest (Asmussen)
23. Firespike (Maker)
24. Toasting Master (Romans)

UPCOMING UNDERCARD STAKES PROBABLES

The following is an early rundown of known possible starters in Derby Week stakes races, according to assistant racing secretary and stakes coordinator Dan Bork:

$400,000 ALYSHEBA (GII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Call Me George, Honor Code, Noble Bird, Ride On Curlin. Possible: Den’s Legacy.

$300,000 LA TROIENNE (GI) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – America, Frivolous, Molly Morgan, My Miss Sophia, Pearl Turn, Sheer Drama, Stopchargingmaria, Wedding Toast. Possible: Interest Free, Tiz Windy.

$200,000 EIGHT BELLES (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Ekati’s Phaeton, Fancy and Flashy, Lavender Chrissie, Mizz Money, Promise Me Silver, Streetheart, Super Saks, Taylor S.

$150,000 EDGEWOOD PRESENTED BY FORCHT BANK (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Lady Zuzu, Pangburn, Quality Rocks. Possible: B Rockett, Sweet Opportunity, Whimsicality.

$150,000 TWIN SPIRES TURF SPRINT (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Berlino Di Tiger (BRZ), Buster Rose, Channel Marker, Good Deed, Heitai, Positive Side, Power Alert (AUS), Something Extra, Undrafted.

$500,000 WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC (GI) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Chocolate Ride, Finnegans Wake, Seek Again, Umgiyo (AUS).

$500,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Bayern, C. Zee, Pants On Fire, Private Zone. Possible: The Big Beast.

$300,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS DISTAFF TURF MILE PRESENTED BY LONGINES (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Coffee Clique, I’m Already Sexy, Lady Lara (IRE), Maid On a Mission, Personal Diary, Sandiva (IRE), Solid Appeal, Strike Charmer, Tepin.

$300,000 HUMANA DISTAFF (GI) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Classic Point, Dame Dorothy, Judy the Beauty, Princess Violet, Sweet Reason, Sweet Whiskey, You Bought Her. Possible: Clearly Confused.

$250,000 AMERICAN TURF PRESENTED BY RAM TRUCKS (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – A Lot, Conquest Typhoon, Firespike, Force the Pass, Indianaughty, Metaboss, Tuba, Wireless Future, World Approval. Possible: Royal Son.

$200,000 PAT DAY MILE PRESENTED BY LG&E AND KU (GIII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Competitive Edge, Conquest Bigluck E, Hillbilly Royalty, Pain and Misery, Toasting Master, Where’s the Moon.

I'm failing to see what, if anything, separates Am Pharoah and Dortmund by so much over Upstart and Materiality. I get it that Materiality has only had 3 races. But those races were not cakewalks. His (and to a lesser extent Upstart's) last-race BSF's are significantly superior to AP's and Dortmund's. And I get that AP was wound down late in the Ark Derby, but not IMO to a degree that would have flipped the BSF order.

At this point I'm thinking that Am Pharoah and Dortmund will both be significantly overbet. Carpe Diem will be wildly overbet. There should be a lot of value in several of the other horses.

--Dunbar

Has a rider been named for Lovely Maria?

As originally indicated by Baffert weeks ago, leaning against running either Maybelline or Luminance in the Oaks after watching them work Monday.. #15 Forever Unbridled and #16 Money'soncharlotte will get in with defections..

Lord Nelson however set for Pat Day Mile after sharp work v. Maybelline..

Kentucky Oaks

1. Condo Commando (Rodriguez)
2. I’m a Chatterbox (Jones)
3. Stellar Wind (Sadler)
4. Birdatthewire (Romans)
5. Lovely Maria (Jones)
6. Include Betty (Proctor)
7. Oceanwave (Catalano)
8. Angela Renee (Pletcher)
9. Sarah Sis (Mason)
-- Maybellene -- Possible (Baffert)
10. Eskenformoney (Pletcher)
11. Puca (Mott)
12. Shook Up (Asmussen)
-- Luminance -- Possible (Baffert)
13. Forever Unbridled (Stewart)
14. Money'soncharlotte (Breen)
----------------------------------
15. Danessa Deluxe (Navarro)
16. Callback (Baffert)
17. Wonder Gal (Gyarmati)

I agree with this. If the race is bet like it's being talked about, Upstart will be far and away the best value. Materiality would be good value too, but I prefer a horse with Upstart's foundation.

My early Oaks/Derby Double selection:

Condo Commando
By the Moon
Stellar Wind
Lovely Maria
West Coast Belle

OVER

American Pharoah
Mubtaahij
Firing Line
Stanford
Far Right

$4.00 Double
100.

Shows how little I follow racing these days. I had no idea Finnegans Wake was still racing.

Oaks:
Condo Commando
Oceanwave
Stellar Wind
Lovely Maria
Shook Up

He races about once every month since mid last year. Workhorse.

What do you know about that word? Aren't you on vacay like 2 weeks a month?:D

Whats it raining down there since youre not on a golf course?

Boston was damn nice last week though. Actually did do some work too.

Marty McGee confirms from Baffert that his fillies won't enter Oaks.. Forever Unbridled and Money'soncharlotte added to field of 14. Draws tomorrow..