CQ may be the best in here, but he's definitely a valid bet against today for several reasons.
one, who bets 2 to go back for 2.10?
two, the surface is a huge question mark. back when turdstone ran on that sealed track, the announcers said he was so much classier, he should win regardless of the shape of the track. oops.
three, we all know that two year olds can move up or down in a moments' notice.

as for the 'capping angle....i don't dislike poly due to 'betability, i don't place enough bets to care about it. i'm not thrilled with thousands of horses being put on a foreign substance, completely out of their element, and now they're a bunch of guinea pigs. kickback issues? uhhhh...we'll see.. hoof problems? shoeing questions? i just wish so many tracks hadn't leaped on so quickly, before any real time has been spent studying this stuff and it's effects. hope for the horses' sake it turns out well.

I think Teuflesberg will run a big race today.

I think the best horse is Street Sense and think anything over 7-2 is stealing. Without going into a bunch of detail, he is coming to this race dead red and they have him to beat.

On poly.... in ten days most everyone will forget about it. As far as someone posting "breeding cappers being morons" they do not cash many tickets. BBB

Brother, I cannot agree more on Street Sense. This horse is primed to run huge today. Quay is talented but I dont think he is going to be able to have Street Sense. SS is m/l 5-1 but I dont think we are going to get that on him. 7/2 is prob more like it.

i guess the only thing this thread proves is how great I am. lololololool

well whos the grapevine? dont go after the surface for that go after the trainer! those problems will happen whether its poly or regular dirt if the horses arent maintained properly EVERYDAY, in this case it means having their feet picked after training

[quote=Danzig188]CQ may be the best in here, but he's definitely a valid bet against today for several reasons.
one, who bets 2 to go back for 2.10?
two, the surface is a huge question mark. back when turdstone ran on that sealed track, the announcers said he was so much classier, he should win regardless of the shape of the track. oops.
three, we all know that two year olds can move up or down in a moments' notice.

as for the 'capping angle....i don't dislike poly due to 'betability, i don't place enough bets to care about it. i'm not thrilled with thousands of horses being put on a foreign substance, completely out of their element, and now they're a bunch of guinea pigs. kickback issues? uhhhh...we'll see.. hoof problems? shoeing questions? i just wish so many tracks hadn't leaped on so quickly, before any real time has been spent studying this stuff and it's effects. hope for the horses' sake it turns out well.[/QUOTE


studying this stuff and its effects? well its been used overseas for atleast a decade now zieg

This is, i hope, the greatest advance in horse racing in our lifetime.

Here is one "take" that I have not heard on the benefits of Poly racing at KEE (at least after viewing 2 Kee days). I have historically always been impressed with the purses, class of fields, etc (IE basically the racing at Keeneland), but always found myself disappointed with the lack of "exciting" dirt races. The reason being is that the track is historically speed favoring, many horses either love it or hate it, and you will frequently find a horse 5 lengths clear at the top of the stretch. The result was anticlimactic (unless of course you had % on the winner). There was typically a big "spread" between the winner, 2nd place finisher, etc compared to many other dirt tracks.

With just a few exceptions the past couple days (like Ginger Punch) it seems to me that the races are more exciting, a larger % of horses look to have a shot at the top of the stretch, etc. The Phoenix yesterday 2/3 of the field had a shot within the 1/4 pole.

the field size does it for me. belmont was unbettable yesterday. keeneland had some nice fields. polytrack might get us some nice field sizes in california finally.

it also saves money on track maintenance, keeps horses sounder, and might finally get us away from these ridiculous run to the front and the race is over type of racing.

This is the 3rd excellent post in a row I've read from Revolution today. The previous two were in the "HOY sense" thread. Short and to the point.

--Dunbar

You all need to remember that Polytrack IS 85% sand,so it isn't all synthetic.The animals ARE still running on dirt,just modified dirt.With a few goodies and some wax added to it.:)

that is correct, some as much as 90% sand.

Turf to poly wins again as Asi Siempre wins the Spinster. Happy Ticket checked bad in the stretch. I'm starting to enjoy this surface. It is kind of fun seeing turf horses and dirt horses square off on a track that plays to both.

My friend, u are watching the death of American dirt racing. U thought it was bad when the Europeans started coming over and dominating our grass racing? Now we are going to see many more grass horses taking our dirt races on this junk and that's going to mean more domination by the Europeans. I played Asi Siempre and Sharp Lisa simply because they had won graded stakes on the grass and Soul Search because she had won over this stuff at Turfway. Worked out pretty well. The fractions were pathetic here (50.50 for the half, 1:16.20 for 6f). It was a typical grass race. Someone sound taps.

Blame the dirt horses for going way too slow and playing into the hands of the turf horses. This isn't the death of American racing. This is the rebirth. More Euro shippers is a good thing, not a bad one. I saw a pretty pathetic day of racing at Belmont on Saturday with short fields of chalky winners. If that is the state of American racing then I am all for the death of it.

What you saw at Belmont was a bunch of scared connections watching from the sidelines while the Sheikhs, Pletcher and Zito cashed checks.

I'm with Sniper King. It is way to early to say what kind of effect Polytrack will have. I love the idea of large fields and dirt and turf types knocking heads.

Thanks for the good news King Glorious,
Four of mine trace to Round Table.
Guess I just stepped into somethin'.

Well Asi Siempre just won a Grade 1 polytrack race against Spun Sugar AND Happy Ticket...what a joke...

All I know is that I was at what should have been the biggest day of racing on the year at Belmont and was looking at the simulcast screens and kinda wishing I was at Keeneland. I don't ever want to wish that again! I despise Keeneland.

why is that a joke?

i will tell you what isn't a joke "Turfway Park reported a 23.6% increase from 2005 in all-source handle during the fall meeting that ended Oct. 5"

And it was her first start on the dirt. I see she is by El Prado out of a Silver Hawk mare. To u all that say that certain horses can't run on certain surfaces (I heard over and over that it was stupid to even try Dylan Thomas on the dirt because he's by Danehill), shouldn't this mean that Asi Siempre shouldn't run on the dirt?

asi went off at 9-2. now all of the sudden $11 horses are a joke? it sounds like people that are losing gambling are using poly as an excuse. i think it is a great surface to handicap. the old keeneland was boring. speed speed speed.

It's not dirt though, it is polytrack, and poly is definitely playing to both turf and dirt horses.

nothing wrong with that. just factor it in when handicapping.

I never said this was a joke. She was one of my top two choices to win the race (along with Sharp Lisa) based simply on the fact that she has had success on the grass. I didn't even bother handicapping the race. I just played the horses that had done well previously on grass or on Polytrack. Same thing with the Alcibiades the other day. When we actually will start having to handicap Keeneland is when there are 6-7 grass horses running on the stuff. Right now though, it's pretty easy.

not you. another posted claimed the third choice beating the top 2 was a joke. if it was, then all races would be jokes. favorites don't always win. asi is a very nice one.

That's only cause the top FM Turf horses are putting up better figures this year than the horses in the Distaff horses. If you'd have capped it you'd have seen that even though Asi Siempre isn't as highly ranked in her division as Spun Sugar and Happy Ticket are she had just as good form coming in figure-wise. The same couldn't be said for Sharp Lisa. If the top Distaff horses were Azeri and Sightseek this year they would have had no problem with an Asi Siempre type.

Danehill has NEVER had a good runner on dirt. El Prado has had Medaglia d'Oro, Borrego, Chindi, etc. Silver Hawk sired Hawkster (Norfolk S at Oak Tree, damsire of Afleet Alex), Dansil (Arkansas Derby), Silver Ending (Arkansas Derby, etc), and Zoonaqua (Oak Leaf S). Asi Siempre's third dam was a half-sister to Drone by dirt sire Bagdad whose daughter was sent to Ireland where she was a SW. Most of that one's foals were bred over there and had no chance to try dirt - it wasn't until she was quite old that she was brought to the US, and her later foals didn't run much; Asi Siempre's dam was unraced. The point being, there is nothing in this pedigree that says this horse can't run on dirt as well as turf.

I think the key here is stamina. Horses who get by on their speed, like Summerly and Spun Sugar and, to a certain extent, Happy Ticket, have to work harder to keep going in front, even with those slow fractions. As a result, one will see more races that 'fall apart' late, with the speed stopping midstretch and horses from behind keeping on. Many turf horses are required to run at longer distances than dirt horses are these days (something I deplore, but I digress) so turf horses will tend to have developed more stamina.

Well Gomez was quoted as saying that Happy Ticket would have won the race if she didnt get stopped cold while coming up the rail. To me, the biggest thing about PolyTrack is that the margin between the horses is much smaller. I cant tell you how many times it has been a 3 horse or more photo for a spot.

the keeneland poly will tighten up so that it will be more like turfway, where speed can hold and off the pace runners can win. in other words, no bias.