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-   -   Discreet Cat's BC Plans Announced (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5140)

pmayjr 10-01-2006 09:35 PM
Well there is the "Sun King" angle.

Sun King won that 6f Sprint Stakes race at Keeneland back in the spring. I'm pretty sure that was his first cut-back in distance and he won. You know the fractions will be suicidal in the Sprint, so DC could sit off of it and hope to come with a run late.

Even if Godolphin's idea is to save him for next year- I'm so afraid he's gonna pull a Ghostzapper and be retired after a race. If you got him in good form now, you gotta keep moving up. There is this angle too:

What if he loses whatever BC race he's entered in? So what? Just give him a layoff until '07 and start it up again. Give him a couple of easy spring preps, and get him prepped for the biggies next summer.

ateamstupid 10-01-2006 09:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmayjr
Well there is the "Sun King" angle.

Sun King won that 6f Sprint Stakes race at Keeneland back in the spring. I'm pretty sure that was his first cut-back in distance and he won. You know the fractions will be suicidal in the Sprint, so DC could sit off of it and hope to come with a run late.

Even if Godolphin's idea is to save him for next year- I'm so afraid he's gonna pull a Ghostzapper and be retired after a race. If you got him in good form now, you gotta keep moving up. There is this angle too:

What if he loses whatever BC race he's entered in? So what? Just give him a layoff until '07 and start it up again. Give him a couple of easy spring preps, and get him prepped for the biggies next summer.
I hope you didn't just compare the Commonwealth BC to the BC Sprint.

And Discreet Cat is too fast to close. He'll be up there running a :21 quarter with all of them if they're insane enough to put him in the Sprint.

This is a completely different situation than Ghostzapper's. Ghostzapper had already won the Classic, and had already won HOY. There was no reason to bring him back. They brought him back to try to showcase his talent, then realized it wasn't worth the risk once he hurt himself.

Discreet Cat hasn't done anything yet. He won the UAE Derby and The Jerome. That's it. There's absolutely no incentive to run him once next year and retire him.

It's not about losing the BC race. It's about possibly losing the horse.

You're worried about not seeing him next year. I'd say there's a much bigger chance this fear will become reality if he's in this year's BC than if he isn't.

King Glorious 10-01-2006 09:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
I hope you didn't just compare the Commonwealth BC to the BC Sprint.

And Discreet Cat is too fast to close. He'll be up there running a :21 quarter with all of them if they're insane enough to put him in the Sprint.

This is a completely different situation than Ghostzapper's. Ghostzapper had already won the Classic, and had already won HOY. There was no reason to bring him back. They brought him back to try to showcase his talent, then realized it wasn't worth the risk once he hurt himself.

Discreet Cat hasn't done anything yet. He won the UAE Derby and The Jerome. That's it. There's absolutely no incentive to run him once next year and retire him.

It's not about losing the BC race. It's about possibly losing the horse.

You're worried about not seeing him next year. I'd say there's a much bigger chance this fear will become reality if he's in this year's BC than if he isn't.
My dad said to me a long time ago......."if u are scared, buy a dog." This game is not for the faint of heart. U can't start ducking from races because u are scared a horse will get hurt. They can get hurt or die at any time. Look at Saint Liam. A seemingly perfect horse that's never shown any signs of problems can take a bad step and it can all be over. Think of Go for Wand or Barbaro. Should they never run in another race with Discreet Cat because of the possibility that he can be lost?

ateamstupid 10-01-2006 10:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
My dad said to me a long time ago......."if u are scared, buy a dog." This game is not for the faint of heart. U can't start ducking from races because u are scared a horse will get hurt. They can get hurt or die at any time. Look at Saint Liam. A seemingly perfect horse that's never shown any signs of problems can take a bad step and it can all be over. Think of Go for Wand or Barbaro. Should they never run in another race with Discreet Cat because of the possibility that he can be lost?
Man, stop with that nonsense. It's about being smart with the horse. It's just plain dumb to go from facing Rumspringa at seven furlongs and Valid Notebook at a one-turn mile to facing the best horses in the world at six furlongs or ten. Period.

That's how you ruin a horse.

If they ducked the Cigar Mile, then I'd be on your side. But skipping the BC is just logical and levelheaded.

kentuckyrosesinmay 10-01-2006 10:07 PM
The Cigar Mile really would be the optimum spot for this horse. I even said that he should go in the Cigar Mile before his race today. Besides, a matchup between Silver Train and Discreet Cat would be something that I would absolutely love to see. All I have to do is wait a little longer to see the monster run again...

1st_Saturday_in_May 10-01-2006 10:10 PM
Can Godolphin keep Humpty Dumpty together? Sure the ideal situation would be to go light this year and campaign for HOY next year culminating in the BCC, but it seems that its only a matter of time before this horse gets injured again. No it's not best to go into the BC off these two races, but he's healthy right now - who knows what his condition will be 13 months from now.

King Glorious 10-01-2006 10:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Man, stop with that nonsense. It's about being smart with the horse. It's just plain dumb to go from facing Rumspringa at seven furlongs and Valid Notebook at a one-turn mile to facing the best horses in the world at six furlongs or ten. Period.

That's how you ruin a horse.

If they ducked the Cigar Mile, then I'd be on your side. But skipping the BC is just logical and levelheaded.
U are right. It does make sense to skip the BC and go on and challenge the reigning BC Sprint champion Silver Train in his next start. That matchup with Silver Train would be a much easier race to win. He wouldn't have to use much effort at all. I mean, since it's inception, 16 of the 17 runnings of the Cigar have been sub-1:35, including seven that were sub-1:34. That's not taxing at all. I'm sure the effort needed by him to beat Silver Train (four of his last six Beyer's have been 110+, his last two miles have been 110 and 112) would be much less than what would be needed to step up to win the BC Mile.

Newsflash. His next race is going to be a much harder one than what he's been facing. Doesn't matter if it's the BC Mile or the Cigar Mile. The BC Mile would just be more horses to beat but the effort needed is going to be nearly the same either way. He's more than likely going to have to run a 1:33 and change race in either spot.

blackthroatedwind 10-01-2006 10:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Newsflash. His next race is going to be a much harder one than what he's been facing. Doesn't matter if it's the BC Mile or the Cigar Mile. The BC Mile would just be more horses to beat but the effort needed is going to be nearly the same either way. He's more than likely going to have to run a 1:33 and change race in either spot.


Well King, I'm glad to see you have returned this thread to the ridiculous by comparing the times of dirt and turf races as though there is some relevence.

Keep up the good, or should I say ridiculous, work.

ateamstupid 10-02-2006 12:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
U are right. It does make sense to skip the BC and go on and challenge the reigning BC Sprint champion Silver Train in his next start. That matchup with Silver Train would be a much easier race to win. He wouldn't have to use much effort at all. I mean, since it's inception, 16 of the 17 runnings of the Cigar have been sub-1:35, including seven that were sub-1:34. That's not taxing at all. I'm sure the effort needed by him to beat Silver Train (four of his last six Beyer's have been 110+, his last two miles have been 110 and 112) would be much less than what would be needed to step up to win the BC Mile.

Newsflash. His next race is going to be a much harder one than what he's been facing. Doesn't matter if it's the BC Mile or the Cigar Mile. The BC Mile would just be more horses to beat but the effort needed is going to be nearly the same either way. He's more than likely going to have to run a 1:33 and change race in either spot.
Wow, you're so spot on. Going against Silver Train at a mile off an eight-week break IS the same as facing Henny Hughes, Commentator, War Front, Pomeroy, Siren Lure and Too Much Bling at six furlongs off five weeks! It's also the same as going against Bernardini, Invasor, Lava Man and Sun King at ten furlongs off five weeks! Thanks for pointing that out!

King Glorious 10-02-2006 12:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Wow, you're so spot on. Going against Silver Train at a mile off an eight-week break IS the same as facing Henny Hughes, Commentator, War Front, Pomeroy, Siren Lure and Too Much Bling at six furlongs off five weeks! It's also the same as going against Bernardini, Invasor, Lava Man and Sun King at ten furlongs off five weeks! Thanks for pointing that out!
First, I've never said he should run in the Sprint. I've said that I DO NOT THINK he is fast enough to win the Sprint. So that shouldn't even be a part of this conversation.

Second, look at the four horses u mentioned for the Classic. Sun King has never won a grade one race either and never won at 10f so he's in the same boat at Discreet Cat. Lava Man is still completely unproven outside of California. Even his trainer has voiced some concern over how we'll he'll do. He's already BEATEN Invasor and that horse will be coming in off of a 13-week layoff. The only one that should be a real concern is Bernardini.

I said the Mile or the Classic, preferrably the Mile. I didn't say the Sprint.

ateamstupid 10-02-2006 12:22 AM
Sorry.

Facing Silver Train off eight weeks at a mile on dirt is the same as facing George Washington, Araafa, Aragorn, Ashkal Way, Gorella, Showing Up, and Librettist off five weeks on a surface he's never tried before.

Thanks for correcting me. The Mile would be much easier than the Sprint.

King Glorious 10-02-2006 12:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Sorry.

Facing Silver Train off eight weeks at a mile on dirt is the same as facing George Washington, Araafa, Aragorn, Ashkal Way, Gorella, Showing Up, and Librettist off five weeks on a surface he's never tried before.

Thanks for correcting me. The Mile would be much easier than the Sprint.
George Washington, Araafa, Aragorn, and Showing Up. All really good horses. No hall of famers in the bunch that would scare me off though. Gorella is still looking at the F/M Turf so she might not be there. Ashkal Way has been all out to beat lesser in his last couple and Librettist came out of his last work lame. Also, Ashkal Way and Librettist are both Godolphin horses so they likely wouldn't be there if Discreet Cat was.

Either way, the depth of the fields faced is not even important. He'd have to run hard to beat Aragorn in the Mile. Or to beat Araafa. Or George Washington. Just like he'd have to run hard to beat Silver Train. In fact, he might even have to run HARDER to beat Silver Train than he would have had to run in the Mile.

ateamstupid 10-02-2006 12:36 AM
He'd have to beat all of them. Usually beating five or six very good horses is a wee bit tougher than beating one, especially considering five weeks to eight, turf to dirt..

Man, what's the use..

King Glorious 10-03-2006 04:52 AM
And the $5 million Classic isn't the only race Discreet Cat's connections are contemplating. Rick Mettee, the assistant trainer for Godolphin Racing, said Monday that the $2 million Sprint could also be an option for Discreet Cat, who is 3 for 3 around one turn.

"He might just be good enough to do it," Mettee said. "He's got a lot of natural speed to stay close. It's always a tough raceo- there are usually horses in form and with more seasoning than us - but he might be the kind of horse to do it."

Most racing observers would love to see Discreet Cat face Bernardini in the $5 million Classic. But since Sheikh Mohamed bin Rashid al Maktoum owns both horses, that meeting is unlikely to happen. Bernardini, the Preakness and Travers winner, is scheduled to run in Saturday's $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Mettee said that no decision regarding Discreet Cat's next race would be made until after Bernardini runs. Sheikh Rashid, the son of Sheikh Mohammed, owns Henny Hughes, who is running in Saturday's Vosburgh, a key prep for the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

"The Sprint, Classic, or Cigar Mile, I would think you would see him in one of the three," Mettee said.
______________________

When he won that allowance race and they said he wouldn't be running in the BC, I said I didn't believe that to be true. Just yesterday, when I said that I believe that the BC was in the plan all along, BTW said this to me:

"I think it is very presumptuous of you to continue to make these claims. Godolphin is seemingly pretty clear about their plans and I don't think they have been planning some sort of sneak attack on the BC."

Well, now it's looking more and more like they are seriously considering the BC. The most telling comment was when they said no decision will be made until after Bernardini runs. Isn't that exactly what I said the other day, before the Jerome?

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Bernardini-goes in the Classic ONLY with a win in the JCGC.
Discreet Cat-goes in the Classic ONLY with a win tomorrow AND a Bernardini loss in the JCGC.
Invasor-goes in the Classic ONLY if Discreet Cat AND Bernardini both lose.
Maybe I'm not as big an uninformed idiot as BTW says I am. Maybe there is something to what I've been saying. I still would not rule the Mile out but that's a longshot at best.

blackthroatedwind 10-03-2006 07:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious


Maybe I'm not as big an uninformed idiot as BTW says I am. Maybe there is something to what I've been saying. I still would not rule the Mile out but that's a longshot at best.

Oh, you're uninformed for sure, but I will leave the " idiot " part for others to decide. But, what you also are is a guy who takes " internet chances "....and NOW you are gloating?

Give me a break. Obviously they are going to discuss the BC, duh, so you are hardly a brilliant prognosticator. But, the funniest part is that what you really have been insisting is that he would run in the BC Mile! Where is that mention by Godolphin.

I was wrong, your sentiments really do belong in this thread, that's how silly they are.

King Glorious 10-03-2006 10:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Oh, you're uninformed for sure, but I will leave the " idiot " part for others to decide. But, what you also are is a guy who takes " internet chances "....and NOW you are gloating?

Give me a break. Obviously they are going to discuss the BC, duh, so you are hardly a brilliant prognosticator. But, the funniest part is that what you really have been insisting is that he would run in the BC Mile! Where is that mention by Godolphin.

I was wrong, your sentiments really do belong in this thread, that's how silly they are.
Never said he would run in the Mile. Said he SHOULD. I thought it was Classic or no go. I was surprised to see they are considering the Sprint.

dalakhani 10-03-2006 12:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
Never said he would run in the Mile. Said he SHOULD. I thought it was Classic or no go. I was surprised to see they are considering the Sprint.
I would love to see him in the classic as well and i think he wins there if he should go. Yes, bernardini lovers, I think Discreet Cat is the better horse and thats based on nothing more than visual impression. Burn me.

And, yes, i think if he decided to run in the mile he would have more than a puncher's chance.

philcski 10-03-2006 10:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
I would backtrack a bit, just because in my opinion, he's not ready to go into the BCS or the BCC, but I don't think they're going to try a BC race unless the horse is 100% ready both physically and mentally. If he goes in either, I have to believe they know what they're doing, because, like I said, I feel that they're among the best at managing their horses.



Okay.. I'm going out on a limb here and saying that it's going to take a much more taxing performance to run six furlongs against a full field of the best sprinters in the world or ten furlongs against a full field of the best distance dirt horses in the world off of five weeks' rest than it would take to run against six or seven mid-level Grade 1 horses at a mile off eight weeks' rest. I guess that's just me. You seem two think the two would be equally strenuous.



That's my point. I'm of the mind that if he skips the BC this year, he will have a much better shot of having a full campaign next year than he would were they to force him into the BC now. Could he still get injured next year? Of course, but I think considering his fragility, common sense should steer them away from this year's BC if they do indeed have intentions on running him as a 4-year-old.



Give me a break. The horse beat Rumspringa at seven furlongs and Valid Notebook at a one-turn mile. Those are his two starts since March. YOU WANT TO RUN HIM AGAINST THE BEST DIRT HORSES IN THE WORLD OFF OF THOSE TWO RACES. You're suggesting that it's some outlandish idea to skip the race, when I think it's ludicrous to run in the race.



That's what I'd like to see as well.

And for the record, if he does run in a BC race, I think the Classic makes more sense, just because I feel that going from seven furlongs to eight to ten is much easier than going from seven to eight, then back to six, when you're talking about this caliber of competition.
Silver Train?

Quite a few horses have won the Sprint on a cutback. The race ALWAYS sets up for a midpack runner/closer on a cutback with the insane early fractions. I think if they put him in the BC Sprint, he wins.

Kasept 10-03-2006 10:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Silver Train?

Quite a few horses have won the Sprint on a cutback. The race ALWAYS sets up for a midpack runner/closer on a cutback with the insane early fractions. I think if they put him in the BC Sprint, he wins.
Really? Name 'quite a few'... The Swept Overboards and Aldebarrans of this event ALWAYS struggle.

Elmhurst and Lit de Justice are the only Sprint winners who came from anywhere further back than 5th after 2nd call in recent memory.

If you're not in the first 5 in the Sprint by the half mile mark, you're DONE.

blackthroatedwind 10-03-2006 10:29 PM
Dancing Spree? I'll be back with more.

Sheik Albadou.

Possibly Cardmania.

Kasept 10-03-2006 10:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Dancing Spree? I'll be back with more.

Sheik Albadou.

Possibly Cardmania.
I was at SA the day Cardmania won, and that was an especially tight bunch.. Sheik Yerbutti laid pretty close to the pace.. 5th-6th.. Spree did come from further back though...

The point I was trying to make is that having bet Swept Overboard and Aldebarran recently, I've come to dismiss the cutbackers...

blackthroatedwind 10-03-2006 10:49 PM
I always liked Sheik Yerbutti....I would guess the second track was your personal favorite.

And, by the way, I do not believe the equine eqivalent was close to the pace. He was closer when he returned the following year...and ran ineffectually.

Kasept 10-03-2006 10:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I always liked Sheik Yerbutti....I would guess the second track was your personal favorite.

And, by the way, the equine eqivelent was not close to the pace I don't believe. He was closer when he returned the following year...and ran ineffectually.
"Jewish Princess"???? That's on that album...

blackthroatedwind 10-03-2006 10:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
"Jewish Princess"???? That's on that album...
Yes....though I'm not certain it is the second track anymore. I believe it was on the vinyl.

philcski 10-04-2006 09:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Really? Name 'quite a few'... The Swept Overboards and Aldebarrans of this event ALWAYS struggle.

Elmhurst and Lit de Justice are the only Sprint winners who came from anywhere further back than 5th after 2nd call in recent memory.

If you're not in the first 5 in the Sprint by the half mile mark, you're DONE.
Don't disagree on Aldebaran-types, but he wasn't a 6F horse (in fact he had never run at that distance). I have no idea why they made him the favorite, especially considering the venue. The more reasonable favorite would have been Shake You Down in my mind... that being said, in the same race, the 2nd place finisher came from the clouds (and nobody was catching Cajun Beat that day!)

I think you can make the argument that any horse in ANY 6F race that's not within 5 lengths of the lead at 6F is DONE (unless their name is Silky Sullivan or Ghostzapper.)

Perhaps i didn't phrase my statement correctly. I believe if DC went in the sprint, he'd be 4th-6th in the early going- he's got plenty of early pace. What I meant was, I'd prefer a horse with tatical speed and a good closing kick (but proven at 6F) over a one dimensional speedball in the Sprint any day.

philcski 10-04-2006 10:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dixie Porter
I blew my money on SYD that day. He went to his knees @ the start, was much the best and finshed 2nd to that rat Cajun Beat. I lobbyed against taking over that fake. It was a NO WIN situation and he never ran back to that race and broke down. Trying him on the grass was a pathetic scream for HELP.

ONLY two bets I EVER made on the BC were SYD and GZ.

The 2nd paragraph makes no sense. Read it again carefully.
Don't ever remember Silky sprinting (could be wrong, but I doubt it).

There were a zillion excellent sprinters that won a zillion stakes coming from out of it. I need Bold Brooklynite for this one. His memory far exceeds mine, but he didn't have to deal with 1,000 horses over 50 years.
SYD finished 3rd, an excellent third at that- as you stated, he went to his knees and had to be rushed up- I was lucky enough to catch Cajun Beat on his best day at a huge price, however he never came close to repeating that performance again. Grass was idiotic with him. I wouldn't call him a rat but he certainly never validated that race. I'd call him disappointing, there was plenty of talent there but injuries knocked him out of the game.

Silky sticks in my mind because he won a 6.5F race at SA when he was 46!! lengths out after the first call (according to his PPs). i'd love to see video of it. 2nd paragraph, im saying most horses in 6F races with 2F to go aren't going to come from more than 5 lengths back. The frontrunners just don't tire and slow enough to allow it...

The Bid 10-04-2006 10:18 AM
Steve Margolis did a great job with that horse, for the record hes a heck of a good horseman. Also a very nice guy, although he is a little high strung.

Linny 10-04-2006 10:33 AM
Smile was more of a miler than a sprinter and he won the Sprint.

As far as Silver Train, beating him at a mile is tough but I'd rather try at AQU and BEL.

Cannon Shell 10-04-2006 11:40 AM
Precisionist won the sprint on the cutback from 1 1/4. Also was 1st start since June.

Cannon Shell 10-04-2006 11:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Linny
Smile was more of a miler than a sprinter and he won the Sprint.

As far as Silver Train, beating him at a mile is tough but I'd rather try at AQU and BEL.
Smile would have won 2 breeders cups if it wasn't for Precisionist as he was 2nd to him in the BC at the Big A.


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