Could so many people are wrong?

Pretty much everyone I have heard on Steve's show this week has also included if not outright picked the horse.

Substituting It'smyluckyday for the Governor since he is no longer in.

Java's War
IMLD
Orb
Goldencents
MyLute

Orb
Normandy Invasion
Revolutionary
Goldencents
Itsmyluckyday

:)

Revolutionary
Goldencents
Itsmyluckyday
Verrazano
Mylute

About 80% of my Derby column this year was about taking a principled stand against Orb.

Here's my column if anyone is interested in reading it:

http://www.goerie.com/article/201305...y-Derby-choice


Published Selections:

1st: Goldencents
2nd: Normandy Invasion
3rd: Revolutionary
4th: Overanalyze

Very good article. I like Verrazano more from a rooting interest because I sense that if anyone in the field has the potential to sweep the TC it would be him. The Wood has me wondering though. Normandy Invasion was gaining ground on him late and it was difficult for me to tell how much Verrazano had to give at the finish or whether JV ever saw him coming.

Nobody is mentioning the Arkansas Derby 1-2 finishers being in Super the last 9 years running and ITM 8 of 9. Will be playing around with some keys to that effect.
My Top 5 to Win
1) Itsmyluckyday
2) Orb
3) Normandy Invasion
4) Verrazano
5) Revolutionary

I simply didn't care for Verrazano's last race...I think he's taken a small step backwards in each of his three most recent starts, all of which at progressive distances (8f, 8.5f, and finally 9f) and I can never trust a Pletcher horse who raced heavily in the winter, primarily in Florida, to run a peak race at Churchill Downs.

There is a question mark with Goldencents at 10 furlongs, but much like horses like Funny Cide and War Emblem, he popped his best race going 9 furlongs in his final prep... so, if he's that much better at 9f than shorter distances, who worry about 10f?

Here are the pp's for Goldencents, his figures when adjusted for pace have gone forward in every race of his life so far, with the biggest jump forward coming at 9f:

i'm not sure what to think about overanalyze, because this years arkansas derby was slow, slowest in years.

i want orb to win, but goldencents is the one that i think will win it.

I'm taking a stand against Goldencents ... I simply don't think he's going to like the 10 panels at all and I can see him backing up in the stretch. With that said, now the horse will win and I'll be ripping tickets. LOL

Goldencents
Itsmyluckyday
Orb
Revolutionary
Verrazano

Consensus..................$1 Oaks-Derby DD will pays. Over 1/2 million in pool.
.................................DOJ/MLucky
Orb-140......................14/27
Goldenencents-78........25/45
Revolutionary-73..........24/43
Itsmyluckyday-68.........34/45
Normandy Invasion-57..23/41
Verrazano-46...............22/45
Java's War-42..............79/132
Govenor Charlie-21 SCR
MyLute-19...................94/107
Oxbow-16...................139/205
Overanalyze-16............60/86
Lines of Battle-12.........114/176
Palice Malice-11............95/164
Will Take Charge-10......166/245
Black Onyx-8 SCR
Vyjack-5......................114/156
Falling Sky-4................283/586
Frac Daddy-4................207/351
Charming Kitten-0.........202/330
Golden Soul-0...............254/435
Super Ninety Nine-3 SCR

Goldencents
Normandy Invasion
Itsmyluckyday
Revolutionary
Mylute

itsmyluckyday
orb
normandy invasion
verrazano
goldencents

Orb
Mylute
Revolutionary
Java's War
Normandy Invasion

Verrazano
Orb
Itsmyluckyday
Normandy Invasion
Vyjack

Agree and I think Krigger is caught up in the magic of Derby week and doesn't have the seasoning against fields bigger than the usual 5-6 horses they typically run in Cali. Just my opinion. He hits the super and I am filing my ticket into the tax folder (which I have done each and every Derby anyway)

Overanalyze
IMLD
Mylute
Revolutionary
Orb

Itsmyluckyday
Normandy Invasion
Goldencents
FRac Daddy
Oxbow

Taking out Will Take Charge for Overanalyze

Who's going to run with Goldencents for the first 1/2 mile? I think he'll be loping along 3+ lengths out in front, unless he can't get footing on the wet track.

1. Goldencents
2. Itsmyluckyday
3. Orb
4. Verrazano
5. Java's War



--Dunbar

1. Verrazano
2. Revolutionary
3. Normandy Invasion
4. Java's War
5. Orb