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-   -   GP P6 carryover (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=50311)

hi_im_god 04-05-2013 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tector (Post 922180)
There are quite a number of scratches, but you have horses drawing in, too. Doesn't help that much. Also the likely PT fav got scratched in the 11th.

same with nora's song in the 13th.

Calzone Lord 04-05-2013 11:23 AM

Wow... Joseph Catanese is absolutely clueless for scratching Macho Spaces out of the 9th race as an "off the turf" scratch.

What a complete imbecile. Hard to believe he's 3-for-52 at the meet.

tector 04-05-2013 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 922188)
Wow... Joseph Catanese is absolutely clueless for scratching Macho Spaces out of the 9th race as an "off the turf" scratch.

What a complete imbecile. Hard to believe he's 3-for-52 at the meet.

Joe trained for a friend of mine when he had horses. He no longer does. Connect the dots....

It is easier with the turf races off, but overall it still is not "easy". The first race alone is a pain in the ass still.

jms62 04-05-2013 02:36 PM

Kind of annoying that they are running these early races on the Turf. Last day of the season HUGE pool they should've just sucked it up.

hi_im_god 04-05-2013 02:53 PM

twinspires $100,000 ticket
 
Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$0.10 P6


Race #8 - # 10

Race #9 - WT# 1,3,4,7,8,10,13,14

Race #10 - WT# 1,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,11,12

Race #11 - WT# 1,2,3,6,7,8,911,12,13

Race #12 - WT# 1,2,6,811,12,13,14

Race #13 - WT# 1,2,3,6,8,910,11,12,14

Ticket Cost = $6400

Ticket Return = N/A

If the 10 wins we "win". I.e., this ticket is 10 in the first leg (race 8) with ALL in the other five races.


Ticket #2

Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$2.10 P6


Race #8 - # 10

Race #9 - WT# 3,4,8,10,14

Race #10 - WT# 3,4,5,7,8,10,12

Race #11 - WT# 1,2,3,9,11,13

Race #12 - WT# 1,2,11,14

Race #13 - WT# 1,2,6,8,10,14

Ticket Cost = $10584

Ticket Return = N/A




Ticket #3

Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$0.60 P6


Race #8 - # 10

Race #9 - WT# 1,3,4,7,8,10,13,14

Race #10 - WT# 1,3,4,5,7,8,10,11,12

Race #11 - WT# 1,2,3,6,7,8,9,11,12,13

Race #12 - WT# 1,2,6,8,11,12,13,14

Race #13 - WT# 1,2,6,8,9,10,11,14

Ticket Cost = $27648

Ticket Return = N/A




Ticket #4

Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$0.60 P6


Race #8 - # 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,13

Race #9 - WT# 3,4,8,10,14

Race #10 - WT# 3,4,5,7,8,10,12

Race #11 - WT# 1,2,3,9,11,13

Race #12 - WT# 1,2,11,14

Race #13 - WT# 1,2,6,8,10,14

Ticket Cost = $27216

Ticket Return = N/A




Ticket #5

Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$0.10 P6


Race #8 - # 2,3,4,5,6,8,10

Race #9 - WT# 1,3,4,7,8,10,13,14

Race #10 - WT# 3,4,5,7,8,10,12

Race #11 - WT# 1,2,3,9,11,13

Race #12 - WT# 1,2,11,14

Race #13 - WT# 1,2,6,8,10,14

Ticket Cost = $5644.80

Ticket Return = N/A




Ticket #6

Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$0.10 P6


Race #8 - # 2,3,4,5,6,8,10

Race #9 - WT# 3,4,8,10,14

Race #10 - WT# 1,3,4,5,7,8,10,11,12

Race #11 - WT# 1,2,3,9,11,13

Race #12 - WT# 1,2,11,14

Race #13 - WT# 1,2,6,8,10,14

Ticket Cost = $4536

Ticket Return = N/A




Ticket #7

Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$0.10 P6


Race #8 - # 2,3,4,5,6,8,10

Race #9 - WT# 3,4,8,10,14

Race #10 - WT# 3,4,5,7,8,10,12

Race #11 - WT# 1,2,3,6,7,8,9,11,12,13

Race #12 - WT# 1,2,11,14

Race #13 - WT# 1,2,6,8,10,14

Ticket Cost = $5880

Ticket Return = N/A




Ticket #8

Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$0.10 P6


Race #8 - # 2,3,4,5,6,8,10

Race #9 - WT# 3,4,8,10,14

Race #10 - WT# 3,4,5,7,8,10,12

Race #11 - WT# 1,2,3,9,11,13

Race #12 - WT# 1,2,6,8,11,12,13,14

Race #13 - WT# 1,2,6,8,10,14

Ticket Cost = $7056

Ticket Return = N/A




Ticket #9

Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$0.10 P6


Race #8 - # 2,3,4,5,6,8,10

Race #9 - WT# 3,4,8,10,14

Race #10 - WT# 3,4,5,7,8,10,12

Race #11 - WT# 1,2,3,9,11,13

Race #12 - WT# 1,2,11,14

Race #13 - WT# 1,2,6,8,9,10,11,14

Ticket Cost = $4704

Ticket Return = N/A




Ticket #10

Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$0.10 P6


Race #8 - # 10

Race #9 - WT# 3,4

Race #10 - WT# 1,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,11,12

Race #11 - WT# 3

Race #12 - WT# 1,2,6,8,11,12,13,14

Race #13 - WT# 1,2,3,6,8,9,10,11,12,14

Ticket Cost = $160

Ticket Return = N/A




Ticket #11

Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$0.10 P6


Race #8 - # 10

Race #9 - WT# 3,4

Race #10 - WT# 1,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,11,12

Race #11 - WT# 1,2,3,13

Race #12 - WT# 1,2,11,14

Race #13 - WT# 1,2,6,8,10,14

Ticket Cost = $192

Ticket Return = N/A




Ticket #12

Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$0.10 P6


Race #8 - # 10

Race #9 - WT# 3,4

Race #10 - WT# 3,4,5,10,12

Race #11 - WT# 3

Race #12 - WT# 1,2

Race #13 - WT# 1,2,6,8

Ticket Cost = $11.20

Ticket Return = N/A




Ticket #13

Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$0.10 P6


Race #8 - # 10

Race #9 - WT# 3,4

Race #10 - WT# 3,4,5,10,12

Race #11 - WT# 1,2,3

Race #12 - WT# 2

Race #13 - WT# 2

Ticket Cost = $3

Ticket Return = N/A

Clip-Clop 04-05-2013 03:20 PM

Since today was another day when xpressbet wouldn't take Visa deposits, this is my ticket with $0.38 in my account.

10 / 4 / 5 / 3, 6, 7 / 1 / 1

tector 04-05-2013 03:24 PM

Three of us pooled into a $460.80 ticket ($153.60 each).

Good luck to all, especially if you are betting with us.

tector 04-05-2013 03:27 PM

FYI--nightmare scenario.

Last race is scheduled for 6:54pm

Under state law, no thoroughbred race can go off after 7pm.

So any delay beyond 6 minutes.....

3kings 04-05-2013 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop (Post 922237)
Since today was another day when xpressbet wouldn't take Visa deposits, this is my ticket with $0.38 in my account.

10 / 4 / 5 / 3, 6, 7 / 1 / 1

The best way in a pinch is the green dot money. You can pick it up at any pharmacy or convenience store and costs $4.95.

Clip-Clop 04-05-2013 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings (Post 922251)
The best way in a pinch is the green dot money. You can pick it up at any pharmacy or convenience store and costs $4.95.

I haven't had any problems for over a year, last time I had a deposit issue was Derby day 2 years ago.
It is OK, after the off the turf announcement the investment seems appropriate.
Thank you for the tip though in case I need it for next month.

3kings 04-05-2013 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hi_im_god (Post 922224)
Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$0.10 P6


Race #8 - # 10

Race #9 - WT# 1,3,4,7,8,10,13,14

Race #10 - WT# 1,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,11,12

Race #11 - WT# 1,2,3,6,7,8,911,12,13

Race #12 - WT# 1,2,6,811,12,13,14

Race #13 - WT# 1,2,3,6,8,910,11,12,14

Ticket Cost = $6400

Ticket Return = N/A

If the 10 wins we "win". I.e., this ticket is 10 in the first leg (race 8) with ALL in the other five races.


Ticket #2

Gulfstream - Race #8 - 04/05/2013
$2.10 P6


Race #8 - # 10

Race #9 - WT# 3,4,8,10,14

Race #10 - WT# 3,4,5,7,8,10,12

Race #11 - WT# 1,2,3,9,11,13

Race #12 - WT# 1,2,11,14

Race #13 - WT# 1,2,6,8,10,14

Ticket Cost = $10584

/A

They hit for at least a dime and this ticket just got a big boost,

robfla 04-05-2013 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tector (Post 922242)
FYI--nightmare scenario.

Last race is scheduled for 6:54pm

Under state law, no thoroughbred race can go off after 7pm.

So any delay beyond 6 minutes.....


With all the money in the pool, barring a tornado ( possible ) there is no possible scenario where they will come close to that time deadline

tector 04-05-2013 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla (Post 922264)
With all the money in the pool, barring a tornado ( possible ) there is no possible scenario where they will come close to that time deadline

The weather should clear by then.

tector 04-05-2013 03:55 PM

PS: I am sure they worked the hell out of the track during the two turf races.

tector 04-05-2013 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 922216)
Kind of annoying that they are running these early races on the Turf. Last day of the season HUGE pool they should've just sucked it up.

No, they could not predict how bad the turf would get. If they left it on turf prior to race 8 and then had to switch, everybody would be bitching. This way they gave you certainty.

Lesser of two evils.

hi_im_god 04-05-2013 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings (Post 922261)
They hit for at least a dime and this ticket just got a big boost,

after 2 legs they're still alive on $99,633.80 in tickets. it'll be interesting to see how many times they hit it and if the payoff's add up to the investment. ticket two is 21x by itself.

casp0555 04-05-2013 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hi_im_god (Post 922276)
after 2 legs they're still alive on $99,633.80 in tickets. it'll be interesting to see how many times they hit it and if the payoff's add up to the investment. ticket two is 21x by itself.

that 11 would have been a blow to the 2.10 ticket :eek:

hi_im_god 04-05-2013 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casp0555 (Post 922283)
that 11 would have been a blow to the 2.10 ticket :eek:

they're alive on 37 individual .10 tickets. it's interesting that they had the 7 on every live ticket after the 2nd. i thought that was one of the tougher legs and didn't have the 7 on the skinny ticket i bet.

hi_im_god 04-05-2013 04:59 PM

same 37 alive after 4 assuming the 11 is official.

robfla 04-05-2013 05:48 PM

I'm pretty sure with the returns, even if a loss, each individual will be subjected to W-2G. Bad deal

Frost King 04-05-2013 05:53 PM

Looks like the whales got harpooned today!

Scav 04-05-2013 05:54 PM

They would have had to hit it 57 times to break even. LOL

They hit it 9 times by my estimate

casp0555 04-05-2013 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 922308)
They would have had to hit it 57 times to break even. LOL

They hit it 9 times by my estimate

38 x 0.10 = 160,892.38......thats what I get

Scav 04-05-2013 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casp0555 (Post 922313)
38 x 0.10 = 160,892.38......thats what I get

I didn't see that they had tickets that were 2.10 and others so that is my mistake.

I went off what the will pay said which was $1750. I see that it paid $4234 per $1. That is absolutely amazing. They did profit.

Calzone Lord 04-05-2013 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 922316)
I went off what the will pay said which was $1750. I see that it paid $4234 per $1. That is absolutely amazing. They did profit.

$4,234 Per 10-cents.

Scav 04-05-2013 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 922318)
$4,234 Per 10-cents.

I saw it, not sure why AmWest had it a different way, guess should believe the will pays. Just saw on Twitter from Mike Welsch that they indeed posted the wrong will pays. That unbelievable awesome for those that hit it. Thinking $1700 coming back and boom, $4300

Did you end up hitting it?

ADJMK 04-05-2013 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor (Post 922149)
Anyone else think Running Wildcat might relish the 7 furlong distance tomorrow in the 10th? ESP if the track is muddy.

I like the Vitali in the 12th too. My top choice in that one is the horse to his inside, Forever Conga. 10,2,11,3,9 in there. I'll probably end up only going 3 deep.

The key to cashing right here. Hope you had a winning ticket.

Calzone Lord 04-05-2013 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav (Post 922322)
I saw it, not sure why AmWest had it a different way, guess should believe the will pays. Just saw on Twitter from Mike Welsch that they indeed posted the wrong will pays. That unbelievable awesome for those that hit it. Thinking $1700 coming back and boom, $4300

Did you end up hitting it?

Yes.

I wanted to vomit on the far turn in the finale, I hated the favorite in the last, thought he was a pure turf horse and took a complete stand against him first time on dirt. He looked like a winner, but thankfully hung.

That 10-cent pick six is the single greatest bet in the world on closing day... you'd have to put a gun to my head to play it any other time when the rake is draconian.

hockey2315 04-06-2013 12:29 AM

I wasn't that upset after seeing the will-pays, but now that I know they were wrong, I'm a little cranky.


Apr. 5, 2013
01:00 PM

Online Gaming
Gulfstream Park
8
$0.10
P6
5,10 / 4,14 / 3,5,10 / 3,7,11 / 11 / 1,12
$7.20
$0.00

ranger5830 04-06-2013 03:14 AM

I also saw the lower will-pays in the beginning, and I can only think that at first it didn't take into account the mandatory payoff, that's what the payoffs would have been had the rest carried over to tomorrow, but then they went and fixed it to show the whole pool being paid out in spite of there being multiple tickets.

Congrats to those who hit, and Doug may I ask how big a ticket you played and if you hit it more than once?

golfer 04-06-2013 03:20 AM

I'm going to guess that the reason the willpays were off, and it took them so long to finally put up the prices, is because so many tickets had scratched horses on them, they needed to move all those to the favorite. Interestingly, in the final 2 legs, the 2nd choice won. Had the betting been slightly different, this thing could have paid FAR less.

Calzone Lord 04-06-2013 06:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ranger5830 (Post 922365)
I also saw the lower will-pays in the beginning, and I can only think that at first it didn't take into account the mandatory payoff, that's what the payoffs would have been had the rest carried over to tomorrow, but then they went and fixed it to show the whole pool being paid out in spite of there being multiple tickets.

Congrats to those who hit, and Doug may I ask how big a ticket you played and if you hit it more than once?

Yes, more than once. However, not all of my winning tickets were 100% mine. Had a few different partners and other people in for shares.

Regarding your other question, I always play multiple tickets instead of just one big ticket.

I was also lucky enough to get offered a 'free roll' from Justin Dew. Justin just had his 2nd kid and had to be with his wife, so he didn't have any time to handicap or even look at the pp's. He told me he had $228 in his Twinspires account and offered me 20% if we hit. Even his wife was happy it, she friended me of Facebook.

It terms of ticket strategy, the DRF's excellent writer Steve Crist likes to say 'the Pick 6 would better be named the Avoid 1' ... I simplify some of his theories a lot, to where I need 5 A's to win, and the multiple tickets allow for a fringe contender, 1 "B" horse, to win.

Basically, in yesterdays sequence, I eliminated all the hopeless bums from leg #3, leg #4, and leg #5. They were the 3 contentious races. I took a wide net and used anything that wasn't a bum on every ticket.

The three defining races I made leg #1, leg #2, and leg #6. They were clearly the least contentious races, and I needed to be right in at least 2 of them to cash (hence, the proper name for the bet, "the Avoid 1")

In leg #1: I needed the 6/5 favorite as the lone A.
In leg #2: I needed the 8/5 favorite and 9/5 second choice as the two A's.
In leg #6: I needed the #1 and #11 as the two A's.

The 6/5 favorite won leg 1. The 8/5 favorite won leg 2. And the #1 horse won leg 3. In essence, I hit the Avoid 1 without having to actually avoid one.

I got a very fortunate break when they rained 3 races off of the turf.

Handicappers usually use way too much imagination in off the turf races. Just look at proven dirt track form and pedigree in those races. One time, I sat down to study 7 straight years worth of result charts for the Saratoga meet. One trend I noticed, was that the post time favorite won at an unusually high percentage and had a clear profitable ROI in all races rained off of the turf over that 7 year span I had result charts for.

Even though 'rained off of the turf' races tend to be especially chalky ... generally, the good chalks have proven dirt form. The bad chalks, have the best turf or synthetic form in the race...but aren't proven or good enough on dirt.

Because of the dime minimum, you could easily and cheaply seal up the only 3 races that had a contentious look to them. Had it stayed on turf, five of the six races would have had a very contentious look to them. It still would have been a great bet, because $2 million in free money at just a 10-cent unit, but the rain really made the day.

justindew 04-06-2013 07:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 922369)
I was also lucky enough to get offered a 'free roll' from Justin Dew. Justin just had his 2nd kid and had to be with his wife, so he didn't have any time to handicap or even look at the pp's. He told me he had $228 in his Twinspires account and offered me 20% if we hit. Even his wife was happy it, she friended me of Facebook.

Fiance!!!

She's been a big fan of your Facebook posts for a long time. I suggested it was high time she friended your ass.

And thanks again.

outofthebox 04-06-2013 11:42 AM

Congrats to everyone who hit!

ADJMK 04-06-2013 01:15 PM

Yesterday's results just confirm that even with a .10c unit how difficult it is to hit a P6. The .10 does help the small guy compete with the syndicates that are trying to buy the pool. I wonder what the pool would be if on a big day like Breeders Cup if they made it a .10 or .50 bet. I am sure that a lot of people that have given up chasing the P6 as unaffordable at $2 might suddenly get involved

jms62 04-06-2013 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ADJMK (Post 922428)
Yesterday's results just confirm that even with a .10c unit how difficult it is to hit a P6. The .10 does help the small guy compete with the syndicates that are trying to buy the pool. I wonder what the pool would be if on a big day like Breeders Cup if they made it a .10 or .50 bet. I am sure that a lot of people that have given up chasing the P6 as unaffordable at $2 might suddenly get involved

Especially if they guarantee it at say 2 million.


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