Just quoting and pasting this in here too so you guys can give me extra ridicule lol

Updated
 

4/13: ARKANSAS DERBY

Oxbow (Lukas)
Overanalyze (Pletcher)
Texas Bling (Dunham)
Falling Sky (Terranova)
Den's Legacy (Baffert)
War Academy (Baffert)
Heaven's Runway (Martin)
Looking Cool (Nafzger)
Demonic (Sadler)
Carve (Asmussen)



4/13: BLUE GRASS STAKES

14 maximum. In order of preference (GSW first; Earnings second)

Uncaptured (Casse)
Noble Tune (C. Brown)
Dynamic Sky (Casse)
West Hills Giant (Terranova)
Java's War (McPeek)
Charming Kitten (Pletcher)
Rydullic (Contessa)
Fear the Kitten (Maker)
Palice Malice (Pletcher)
Undrafted (Ward)
Channel Isle (Lukas)
My Name Is Michael (Mott)
Tesseron (Jo. Carroll)
Dewey Square (Romans)
----------------------------
Footbridge (Harty)
Eton Blue (Zito)

5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY

Orb (McGaughey/Rosario)
Verrazano (Pletcher/Velazquez)
Goldencents (O'Neill/Krigger)
Revolutionary (Pletcher/Castellano)
Lines of Battle (O'Brien/Moore)
Vyjack (Rodriguez/TBD)
Will Take Charge (Lukas/Court)
Itsmyluckyday (Plesa/Trujillo)
Govenor Charlie (Baffert/Bejarano)
Black Onyx (Breen/Bravo)
Normandy Invasion (Brown/Lezcano)
My Lute (Amoss/Mena)
Oxbow (Lukas/Stevens)
Uncaptured (Casse/Bridgmohan)
Super Ninety Nine (Baffert/Garcia)
Java's War (McPeek/Martinez)
Merit Man (Hess/Desormeaux)
Den's Legacy (Baffert/Albarado)
Falling Sky (Terranova/Espinoza)

Borel picks up the mount on Texas Bling, lowering his price.:mad: I'll be pulling for Carve as well.

Wow.

You know things have changed in thoroughbred racing when even D. Wayne Lukas decides to train up to the Derby.


http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-der...ill-train-race

1. Orb 150 Stuart Janney III & Phipps Stable (Ogden Mills “Dinny” Phipps) Shug McGaughey III $840,000
2. Verrazano 150 Let’s Go Stable, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Todd Pletcher $810,000
3. Goldencents 129 W.C. Racing (Josh Kaplan & Glenn Sorgenstein), Dave Kenney & RAP Racing (Rick Pitino) Doug O’Neill $1,208,000
4. Java’s War 122 Charles Fipke Ken McPeek $651,772
5. Overanalyze 110 Repole Stable (Mike Repole) Todd Pletcher $908,381
6. Revolutionary 110 WinStar Farm LLC (Kenny Troutt) Todd Pletcher $720,000
7. Lines of Battle 100 Joseph Allen, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Aidan O’Brien $1,261,089
8. Vyjack 70 Pick Six Racing (David Wilkenfeld) Rudy Rodriguez $505,000
9. Will Take Charge 60 Willis D. Horton D. Wayne Lukas $512,971
10. Itsmyluckyday 50 Trilogy Stable (Marion Montanari & David Melin) & Laurie Plesa Eddie Plesa Jr. $593,600
11. Govenor Charlie 50 Mike Pegram Bob Baffert $400,000
12. Black Onyx+ 50 Sterling Racing (Sam Herzberg) Kelly Breen $317,130
13. Palace Malice 50 Dogwood Stable, Inc. (W. Cothran “Cot” Campbell) Todd Pletcher $200,000
14. Normandy Invasion 44 Fox Hill Farms Inc. (Rick Porter) Chad Brown $258,000
15. Frac Daddy 44 Magic City Thoroughbred Partners (Carter Stewart) Ken McPeek $240,596
16. Mylute 42 GoldMark Farm, LLC (T. Paul Bulmahn) & Whisper Hill Farm (Amanda Pope) Tom Amoss $363,365
17. Oxbow 36 Calumet Farm (Brad Kelley) D. Wayne Lukas $346,000
18. Uncaptured 30 John C. Oxley Mark Casse $396,341 **
19. Super Ninety Nine 30 Tanma Corporation (Susan Chu) Bob Baffert $308,000 **
20. Falling Sky 30 Newtown Anner Stud, James Covello & Joseph Bulger John Terranova II $207,50
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21. Merit Man 20 Bruce Chandler, Robert H. McKee & James Glavin Bob Hess Jr. $357,500 **
22. Den’s Legacy 20 Westrock Stables LLC (Scott & Joe Ford) Bob Baffert $329,000 **
23. Charming Kitten 20 Ken & Sarah Ramsey Todd Pletcher $206,000
24. Departing 20 Claiborne Farm (Seth Hancock) & Adele B. Dilschneider Al Stall Jr. $130,000
25. West Hills Giant 20 Long Island Racing Stables, Sunrise Stables, Bentivegna John Terranova II $90,666

What does the pink mean?

They own the tie breaker?

Doubtful for Derby (as of now)..

What kind of odds do we think we will see on Charming Kitten in the Lexington?

4/20: ILLINOIS DERBY

Dewey Square (Romans)
Departing (Stall)
Abraham (Pletcher)
Carried Interest (Violette)
Narvaez (Bezara)
Show Some Magic (Dominguez)
Siete de Oros (Preciado)
Stormin Monarcho (Berndt)

4/20: LEXINGTON STAKES

Squall King (Romans)
Pure Fun (McPeek)**
Taken by the Storm (McPeek)
River Rocks (Catalano)
Cerro (Motion)
Examen (Proctor)
Hip Four Sixty Nine (Barnett)
Johnny Handsome (Gabriel Jr.)
Pick of the Litter (Romans)
Title Contender (Catalano)
Where’s Dominic (Trombetta)

O Odds cause he only is 3rd on the list at 20 Pts,Super 99 and Uncaptured are doubtful. 1/2 at 20 are Merit Man and Den's Legacy and both of them are 50/50 which means Ramsey is in!!

5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY -- WITH SUNDAY APRIL 14th UPDATES

1. Orb 150 Stuart Janney III & Phipps Stable (Ogden Mills “Dinny” Phipps) Shug McGaughey III $840,000
2. Verrazano 150 Let’s Go Stable, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Todd Pletcher $810,000
3. Goldencents 129 W.C. Racing (Josh Kaplan & Glenn Sorgenstein), Dave Kenney & RAP Racing (Rick Pitino) Doug O’Neill $1,208,000
4. Java’s War 122 Charles Fipke Ken McPeek $651,772
5. Overanalyze 110 Repole Stable (Mike Repole) Todd Pletcher $908,381
6. Revolutionary 110 WinStar Farm LLC (Kenny Troutt) Todd Pletcher $720,000
7. Lines of Battle 100 Joseph Allen, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Aidan O’Brien $1,261,089
8. Vyjack 70 Pick Six Racing (David Wilkenfeld) Rudy Rodriguez $505,000
9. Will Take Charge 60 Willis D. Horton D. Wayne Lukas $512,971
10. Itsmyluckyday 50 Trilogy Stable (Marion Montanari & David Melin) & Laurie Plesa Eddie Plesa Jr. $593,600
11. Govenor Charlie 50 Mike Pegram Bob Baffert $400,000
12. Black Onyx+ 50 Sterling Racing (Sam Herzberg) Kelly Breen $317,130
13. Palace Malice 50 Dogwood Stable, Inc. (W. Cothran “Cot” Campbell) Todd Pletcher $200,000
14. Normandy Invasion 44 Fox Hill Farms Inc. (Rick Porter) Chad Brown $258,000
15. Frac Daddy 44 Magic City Thoroughbred Partners (Carter Stewart) Ken McPeek $240,596
16. Mylute 42 GoldMark Farm, LLC (T. Paul Bulmahn) & Whisper Hill Farm (Amanda Pope) Tom Amoss $363,365
17. Oxbow 36 Calumet Farm (Brad Kelley) D. Wayne Lukas $346,000
--. Uncaptured 30 John C. Oxley Mark Casse $396,341 **
--. Super Ninety Nine 30 Tanma Corporation (Susan Chu) Bob Baffert $308,000 **
18. Falling Sky 30 Newtown Anner Stud, James Covello & Joseph Bulger John Terranova II $207,50
--. Merit Man 20 Bruce Chandler, Robert H. McKee & James Glavin Bob Hess Jr. $357,500
19. Den’s Legacy 20 Westrock Stables LLC (Scott & Joe Ford) Bob Baffert $329,000
20. Charming Kitten 20 Ken & Sarah Ramsey Todd Pletcher $206,000
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--. Departing 20 Claiborne Farm & Adele B. Dilschneider Al Stall Jr. $130,000
21. West Hills Giant 20 Long Island Racing Stables, Sunrise Stables, Bentivegna John Terranova II $90,666
22. Code West 20 Gary & Mary West Bob Baffert $90,000
23. Tiz a Minister 20 S. A. Y. Racing, LLC Paul Aguirre $81,000
24. Golden Soul 14 Charles Fipke Dallas Stewart $84,000
--. Dynamic Sky 13 John C. Oxley Mark Casse $290,835
25. Power Broker 10 Gary & Mary West Bob Baffert $245,000

A horse like West Hills Giant, who just ran 12th in the Bluegrass at 38/1 odds and his last win was last September at Finger Lakes ... he's probably going to get into the Derby if they want to go. All he needs is a single injury or defection in the next 3 weeks.

Actually, just a bit ago, Terranova let Darren Rogers know they are pulling West Hills Giant from Derby consideration! And there are more 'official declarations' including Uncaptured, Merit Man, & Departing and Den's Legacy flew back to California instead of Louisville as planned and appear withdrawn as well..

Super Ninety Nine however is under condideration... Revised listing below..

5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY -- WITH SUNDAY APRIL 14th UPDATES

1. Orb 150 Stuart Janney III & Phipps Stable (Ogden Mills “Dinny” Phipps) Shug McGaughey III $840,000
2. Verrazano 150 Let’s Go Stable, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Todd Pletcher $810,000
3. Goldencents 129 W.C. Racing (Josh Kaplan & Glenn Sorgenstein), Dave Kenney & RAP Racing (Rick Pitino) Doug O’Neill $1,208,000
4. Java’s War 122 Charles Fipke Ken McPeek $651,772
5. Overanalyze 110 Repole Stable (Mike Repole) Todd Pletcher $908,381

6. Revolutionary 110 WinStar Farm LLC (Kenny Troutt) Todd Pletcher $720,000
7. Lines of Battle 100 Joseph Allen, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith Aidan O’Brien $1,261,089
8. Vyjack 70 Pick Six Racing (David Wilkenfeld) Rudy Rodriguez $505,000
9. Will Take Charge 60 Willis D. Horton D. Wayne Lukas $512,971
10. Itsmyluckyday 50 Trilogy Stable (Marion Montanari & David Melin) & Laurie Plesa Eddie Plesa Jr. $593,600

11. Govenor Charlie 50 Mike Pegram Bob Baffert $400,000
12. Black Onyx+ 50 Sterling Racing (Sam Herzberg) Kelly Breen $317,130
13. Palace Malice 50 Dogwood Stable, Inc. (W. Cothran “Cot” Campbell) Todd Pletcher $200,000
14. Normandy Invasion 44 Fox Hill Farms Inc. (Rick Porter) Chad Brown $258,000
15. Frac Daddy 44 Magic City Thoroughbred Partners (Carter Stewart) Ken McPeek $240,596

16. Mylute 42 GoldMark Farm, LLC (T. Paul Bulmahn) & Whisper Hill Farm (Amanda Pope) Tom Amoss $363,365
17. Oxbow 36 Calumet Farm (Brad Kelley) D. Wayne Lukas $346,000
18. Super Ninety Nine 30 Tanma Corporation (Susan Chu) Bob Baffert $308,000[/i] **
19. Falling Sky 30 Newtown Anner Stud, James Covello & Joseph Bulger John Terranova II $207,50
20. Charming Kitten 20 Ken & Sarah Ramsey Todd Pletcher $206,000
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21. Code West 20 Gary & Mary West Bob Baffert $90,000
22. Tiz a Minister 20 S. A. Y. Racing, LLC Paul Aguirre $81,000
23. Golden Soul 14 Charles Fipke Dallas Stewart $84,000
24. Power Broker 10 Gary & Mary West Bob Baffert $245,000

He may not win the Derby or this or much of anything but he sure has some cute videos (and I don't care how much of a moron I sound like saying so). :D

If you were Baffert, wouldn't you rather run Code West (who would be next on the list) than Super 99?

Paul

Probably but they have different owners, so he may not be making the decision. Sadly, there will probaby be at least one defection because of injury, so it won't matter.

Absolutely, especially since things have gone sideways -- and worse -- for Gary & Mary West.

I say whoever is training the best of the 3 for Baffert, he will send.

That's OK but right now -- with plenty of time for others to get sick/hurt -- he can only have Super Ninety Nine or Code West by not running Super Ninety Nine. Power Broker will need help..

And don't forget that there will be an opportunity for a couple of runners to invade the list out of the Lex and Derby Trial..

That's true and he might not have a choice other then S99. Are they actually considering Power Broker? The West's try to rush everything like Power Broker and Treasury!

Steve,
Did you read the Press release at the Paulick report where it says "Then there will be one." Stating that Baffert is down to Govenor Charlie? But you keep reading and it says Baffert will determine who is training best between the other 3? Makes no sense, Is he considering the other 3 or not?

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...hurchill-downs Bloodhorse has Charming Kitten at 21st. Hmm. Are they counting someone in that isn't anymore?

I get that Pegram likes to cram words together for horse names, but did he intentionally misspell "governor" or did he not use spell check before he sent the thing in to the Jockey Club? Given who we're talking about, I assumed it was the former. (I assume someone addressed the spelling of Presious Passion at some point, no idea why that happened either.)

I wouldn't be surprised if govenor was an oversight.Personally I would have spelled it gov'nah.
Preakness winner Deputed Testamony was an unintentional error as I recall.

Use Darren Rogers at Churchill as the sole guide for the arbiter of Derby/Oaks hopefuls. He will always have the most relevent status information as connections have to keep CD informed as to intentions due to stall requirements, etc. If horses are still on his list as possible, then they aren't out of consideration.

5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY -- JOCK ASSIGNMENTS

1. Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario)
2. Verrazano (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
3. Goldencents ( Doug O’Neill/Kevin Krigger)
4. Java’s War (Ken McPeek/Julian Leparoux)
5. Overanalyze (Todd Pletcher/Rafael Bejarano)
6. Revolutionary (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
7. Lines of Battle (Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
8. Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez/Garrett Gomez)
9. Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court)
10. Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa Jr./Elvis Trujillo)
11. Govenor Charlie (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia)
12. Black Onyx (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo)
13. Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith)
14. Normandy Invasion (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano)
15. Frac Daddy (Ken McPeek/TBA -- V. Lebron in AR Derby)
16. Mylute (Tom Amoss/Rosie Napravnik)
17. Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens)
18. Falling Sky (John Terranova/Jose Espinoza) **
19. Charming Kitten (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado)
20. Tiz a Minister (Paul Aguirre/Joe Talamo)
21. Golden Soul (Dallas Stewart/BJ Hernandez)

I'd be surprised if Charming Kitten runs.

Why? I don't think Ramsey will pass it up even if he knows the horse is hopeless.

A son of Kitten's Joy who has never started on dirt before ... you'd think Pletcher would be able to talk him out of it...especially with so many rich spots for 3yo's routing on turf and poly later on in the year.

it wouldn't be the only hopeless case to be entered.

derby points vs. graded earnings
 

horseracingnation put together a nice side by side comparison.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/con...takes_earnings

under the new system, it looks like they traded out den's legacy, dynamic sky, he's had enough and power broker for falling sky, frac daddy, normandy invasion, and palace malice. all pending the lexington and derby trial, of course.

hard to argue that isn't an improvement.

The would be post time favorite Dreaming of Julia is out.

Under Graded Earnings -- the Derby field would look like this right now:

Dreaming of Julia
Goldencents
Lines of Battle
Overanalyze
Orb
Verrazano
Revolutionary
Java's War
Vyjack
Itsmyluckyday
Govenor Charlie
Will Take Charge
Oxbow
Black Onyx
Mylute
Den's Legacy
Super Ninety Nine
Frac Daddy
Normandy Invasion
Power Broker

So basically... Dreaming of Julia, Den's Legacy, and Power Broker are out in favor of Falling Sky, Charming Kitten, and Palace Malice.

Den's Legacy not coming appears to be a post-race status decision because after other declarations, he would be in the 20.

In terms of Dreaming of Julia, I got the feeling from Pletcher that he was very comfortable with not being put in the position to have to decide on a Derby run for her.

Wouldn't that be a dream betting scenario? I would have bet against Dreaming of Julia with both fists in the Derby.

Paul

Can we get an Oaks probable list? I think Julia will be in tough against her own sex.

If she wasn't a Pletcher horse going Gulfstream to Churchill ... I'd probably want to key her on top in the Derby.

There are absolutely zero question marks about the validity of her last performance. It can be quantified and it was a lot better than anyone elses best performance.

The question obviously is: Can she repeat it?

The Kentucky Oaks is a race not as well suited to her running style. It's overflowing with speed. All of the preps have been won impressively by horses with the same running style as hers.

The Kentucky Derby has such a relatively paceless look right now ... that Oxbow might be the most likely pacesetter.

I think if you're that dead set against Dreaming of Julia's Derby chances... find a closer in the Oaks and bet against her there.

The Oaks will be a demanding race because she's going to be stalking a couple of horses who are free running and have already posted huge figures sprinting. She'll pay a huge price for it in the stretch.