Tim,
EC has won two grade one's this year. And you keep referring to losing ground in the stretch, yeah wide behind a 1:15, even little kids understand why noone will make up ground on that.
If you want Tim, name the amount, the two of em heads up I will take EC if they meet again.

It was actually Rupert who kept referring to losing ground in the stretch.
And if the price is right and money is put up front, I'll make a head to head matchup between those 2.

Tim this is getting old its pretty obvious that a fluky pace like none other in the HISTORY of the Arl Million allowed the Tin Man to win, in an effort worthy of victory.
But you are attempting to use one race with an extremely fluky set of conditions as a basis that he is superior overall to the other hores in there.
If you want to believe this then fine, but its not really logical to expect most people to agree.

Glad to see you give the lady proper respect. When we were there, my daughter was quite taken with Madame Pele's story, and by the Princess who appealed to the goddess to stop a lava flow near Hilo back in the late 1800s; it stopped.

Daughter also loved honu; that was her stuffed animal purchase for the trip.

Right now the Tin Man is better than ever, no doubt about it. As an eight year old hes been a monster. I wonder how long he can continue his incredible year? He did run huge in Dubai, infact he looked like a winner, jock thought he was a winner, trainer did as well. He ran a huge race in the million despite crawling, completely dictated the pace. I really like the horse, however I feel the BC will be a big let down for anyone running to the window on him.

You have it backwards. The truth is that it's not logical to use a slow pace as an excuse when your horse(Cacique) was basically on the lead. Cacique was neck and neck with The Tin Man at the quarter pole. I'm still waiting for you to explain what Cacique's excuse was. When they hit the stretch, The Tin Man and Cacique were neck and neck. At this point they both started sprinting and the next thing you knew, The Tin Man had a 3 length lead at the 1/16th pole. Cacique had no excuse. Do you honstly think the result would have been different if The Tin Man tracked Cacique the whole race? Either way, they would have been neck and neck at the quarter pole. How would the result have been different? When you get outsprinted that badly in the stretch, there is nothing that would have changed the outcome of the race.

When I watch a race where the pace is very slow and the winner goes wire-to-wire, I watch the come-from-behinders to see if any of them were closing even a little ground in the stretch. For example, if the pace is :50 and some horse comes from 7 lengths back and and only loses by a length or two, you could make a case that the horse would have had a chance to win with a faster pace. I'm obviously going to be watching to see how the horse is travelling too. Even if a horse is gaining ground, I'm not going to bet them in their next race unless the horse was moving well. That's why I was not going to bet that Clement Horse back that had all the trouble with Gomez. The horse was gaining some ground after having trouble, but the horse was not moving very well.

Rupert, its very obvious to see that Cacique stayed steady in the lane, beaten a length.
But in years of watching races I always know how a race like that will end.
Obviously the Tin Man has a better burst of speed than cacique. He had not been asked to use it after setting a pace that still boggles my mind. He had a 100% full gas tank and when he was asked to use the burst, he did. He opened up two lengths and then held on by one. Now if he had opened up teh two lengths and tehn increased the margin I might agree with you.
But when you allow any horse that fast to go 1:15, 17 lengths slower than the female counterparts on the same day on the same course(pace setter there held 3rd so it wasnt that their race had carzy fast fractions) you just have to toss it as a result. Its what I did, and said i was doing as much the day of the Million.
I think sometimes you start arguments that you know the answer to just to play devils advocate.
ANyone who watches races and understands pace knows that when a horse is allowed to lope that slowly, in a walk for real, who has speed, taht how the always win teh race is by using a burst on the turn or at the top of the lane. he actually gave ground to Cacique from the 1/8th pole to the wire.

That is exactly my point, that The Tin Man showed that he has a better burst of speed than Cacique. I think that the horse with the better burst of speed is the better horse. If you've got a front-runner who has a better burst of speed than any of the come-from-behinders, he's going to beat them every time, unless he goes way too fast early on. If it's an average pace, the front-runner will win if he has the biggest burst of speed.

That wasnt an average pace, and if you dont know that then this is a waste of time.
Like I said, look at the charts and check out the pace in teh Secretariat and Beverly D. This pace was a freakish fluke like none Ive ever seen.

Cacique showed a very nice burst of speed in his last at Belmont. Maybe hes a Belmont horse? English Channel beat him very easily at Monmouth. The Tin Man beat him easily at Arlington. English Channel also beat him at Churchill but Cacique had a very bad ride which cost him the victory.

Easily? Neither win was easy tim, I dont understand that at all.
EC in the UN beat him in a dogfight down the lane, and The Tin Man was full bore after loping to beta him a length.
If those are easy? Whats hard?

What you are either neglecting to mention, or don't understand ( though I tend to doubt this ), is that while the Tin Man was racing to his strength ( setting the pace, that is ) Cacique was taken mildly out of his game and forced to be closer than he would prefer on the slow pace. The simple fact is the race set up better for Tin Man's running style than Cacique's. Not that Cacique is a world beater and probably is not a better horse than the Tin Man ( they are close...it's sort of splitting hairs ). but, in terms of race dynamics, in the Arlington Million the Tin Man had the best of it versus really anyone else in the field and unsurprisingly that worked to his advantage...especially versus this year's dramatically subpar field.

Please don't cite the Manhattan as an example of Cacique being good on the lead, as I would guess you understand that was a circumstantial paceless race, and you fully understand the previous concept.

I'll have to rewatch the UN Nations. I seem to remember EC drawing away from Cacique pretty easily. With the Tin Man, there was never any doubt. Victor rode him like a hobby horse for the final yards.
I'm done with this one forever.

I think saying the Tin man was full bore is a bit of an exageration as Victor never even un****ed the whip on him , the guys who ran second and third were def. whipping their horses. To be honest it doesnt matter , the money is in the bank, the horse got the job done and he is going well into this next race. If he gets beat everytime he runs from now on it wont matter , he's a great horse with the heart of a champion , if he happens to win the Breeders Cup will you all promise to bow down and kiss his 8 yr old feet?

Now the Tin Man is a " great horse?

I should have been more clear , he is a great horse to ME!!!!!!!!!!!!! I ride him everyday , I work him for all his big races , I gallop him every morning and since he has made almost 3 million dollars HE IS GREAT TO ME .

Honu, don't waste your time. These guys won't call a horse great unless they're already dead. Hell, to them, Secretariat was a mule. LOL

You're assuiming The Tin Man and Cacique started sprinting at the same time. To me, the The Tin Man started sprinting BEFORE Cacique, thus opened up a significant lead.. Cacique(Prado) reacted to Tin Man's move and started speeding up as well. I was impressed with Cacique's ability to close ground under those circumstances. (bottom line, they're both very nice horses and I look forward to a possible rematch on BC day--with many others in the mix as well!!) And I give Tin Man all the credit in the world for dictating that pace and getting he job done.

I wasn't saying that the pace was average in the Million. The pace was obviously very slow in the Million. I was saying that if you have a front-runner that has a better burst of speed than the closers, then the front-runner will win as long as the pace is not really fast. If the pace is average, then the front-runner will win. In another words, I think TTM would have won the Million even if he had to go :48.

By the way, I don't think looking at the charts tells you nearly as much as watching the race. The final margin of victory may have only been a length or a length and a quarter, but it was much easier than that in reality. TTM blew them away in the stretch. Cacique lost about 3 lengths to TTM from the quarter pole to the 1/16th pole. The race was over at this point. I don't know if TTM was necessarily all out that final 100 yards.

Are you saying that Prado was sitting chilly on the horse after they straigthened away in the stretch? Both horses were all out once they straightened away in the stretch and TTM ran away from Cacique. When two horses are head and head as they straighten away in the stretch, no jockey is going to intentionally let the other horse pull away by 3 lengths. Prado simply didn't have the horse to keep up. He got outsprinted. Even Oracle admitted that Cacique does not have the burst of speed that TTM has.

Yeah Rupert but the Tin Man doesnt have the ability to give his burst without the right conditions.
Look, this is all quite dumb.
Gurantee!!!! you that if both go in the BC that Cacique finishes ahead of him, absolute cinch to happen.

What are you talking about? He doesn't need the right conditions to do it. The Million wasn't his only good race this year. He has 4 wins and a second this year. The Million was the only race where he got a crawling pace.

He gave David Junior a good battle. DJ is in the top two or three best horses in the world.

Even though TTM may be a better horse at 1 1/4 miles than 1 1/2 miles, I would still be very surprised if Cacique outfinishes him in the BC Turf. I think that TTM will beat both Cacique and EC in the BC Turf.

No way does he beat Cacique. No way in hell.

Cacique only has one chance to beat TTM in the BC Turf. His only chance will be if Hurricane Run or one of the other great European horses blows by TTM and then TTM gives up. That does happen sometimes. Sometimes when a horse is running his hardest and he gets blown by, he can get discouraged and give up. That would be the only scenario that I could see that would allow Cacique to beat TTM. If Hurricane Run and/or Schirocco blow by TTM at the 1/4 pole or 1/8th pole, I could see Cacique making a late run and getting by TTM right at the end of the race. Other than that scenario, Cacique will not beat TTM.

That's sort of the scenerio that rates to happen over 75% of the time.

I don't know where you came up with that number. If I bet a horse that is the 2nd best horse in the race, they usually run 2nd. Once in a while, they may fade to 3rd or 4th because they get passed and get discouraged, but that probably only happens 10-20% of the time at the most.

Richi, be happy to take Cacique over TTM. Name the amount.

The number may be a little random but in the case of a speed horse like The Tin Man he does rate to get collared and passed by the likely better Europeans and thus the scenerio you proposed sort of absolves both the horse and you for a poor performance or opinion when and if the Tin Man fails.

I understand you feel that in the unlikely event that Cacique and the Tin Man hook up for all the money that the Tin Man will prevail but the simple fact is that such a scenerio is extremely remote and thus you are proposing you can only be wrong in a fairly illogical variation.

Don't get me wrong, I agree with your logic that the Tin Man will get disheartened and fall apart when engulfed by the real talent in the BC Turf, as that is a situation that happens quite often. The hardest exacta to get home involves a longshot second to a very tough and strong favorite when the longshot also happens to be a speed and you know he will be confronted by the favorite early in the running. Such a horse is likely to be disheartened from attempting to fight off the favorite and losing the battle. However, the caveat you offered, in light of the situation, tilts the scale of the argument dramatically in your favor.

I didn't say that I think it is likely to happen. I said that it is possible. Horses usually do not fall apart when they get passed. They usually keep trying. When they do get discouraged, it usually only costs them a length or so. It's not as if it usually costs them 5 lengths. The earlier a horse gets passed, the more it will hurt him. If he gets blown by at the 3/8 pole, it's going to cost him more than if get passed at the 1/8th pole. But the truth of the matter is if a horse gets blown by at the 3/8 pole, I doubt he was going to do much any way. The only exception would be if there was some absolute super-horse that blows by your horse at the 3/8 pole. That happens once in a while but not very often.

Randall, I have no reason to bet with a stranger over the internet. It's not exactly practicle for me, especially considering that I want to remain anonymous. I'm sure that Pinnacle will have plenty of horse match-ups for me if I desire to bet any of the match-ups. If they do offer a TTM vs Cacique match-up, I'm sure I will bet on TTM.

You can't offer caveats in this argument...either you think the Tin Man will beat Cacique in the BC Turf or you don't ( at least in this particular argument ). Surely you can wait until the pps are drawn and give your opinion but you basically can't be excused from being wrong should a certain scenerio develop...save perhaps the rider falling off. At least considering the opinions you shared earlier in this thread.

There's no shame in being wrong, and I'm the weasel that has very little opinion on the subject because I am not a fan of either horse, though I would gladly take even money that Cacique finishes ahead of the Tin Man in the BC. Like you, I feel the Tin Man will lose steam late in the race after at least trying to win a race he can't win, while the unmighty Cacique will suck up for some irrelevent piece while doing next to no running.

Fair enough, I already have a small bet with Kev on Cacique and EC. Not really a stranger here, though, I'm far from anonymous.

I won't necessarily make an excuse if TTM loses to Cacique. I usually don't have an excuse when a horse I bet loses. Once in a while there may be a legitimate excuse but not very often, maybe 10% of the time or so.

When I bet a speed horse and they get passed and run 4th or 5th, it is very rare that I will say that they would have won the race if the winner wasn't in the race. Here is a situation where I may say that my horse who ran 3rd would have won the race if the winner was not in the race. Let's suppose that I bet a 2 year old first-timer in a sprint race and he goes head and head in :21 3/5 and they have a 5 length lead on the rest of the field. So he is hooked with some monster going head and head and the monster puts him away and draws off to win the race by 5 lengths. My horse fades to 3rd about 50 yards before the wire and gets beat for 2nd by less than a length and my horse's stride looked good. He was on his right lead and was moving well. In a case like that, where my horse would have had a 3 length lead under a tight hold, if the monster wasn't in the race, I may say that my horse would have probably won the race if the winner wasn't in there. I wouldn't automatically say this. It would depend on how my horse was moving coming down the stretch, etc. If he was on his left lead and was taking short strides, I probably wouldn't say that he would have won if the winner wasn't in there. There are no set rules. I watch every race on a case by case basis.

Lose the necessarily...unless the rider falls off.

I'm having fun with you, but trying to make a point, which I think you understand. I understand everything you said in your second paragraph and pretty much completely agree. I also understand sometimes we like a horse and we know after the race that for whatever reason our horse just didn't show up. However, in this specific argument, I feel like it's either I think the Tin Man will finish in front of Cacique.....or he won't. I am ready to be either right or wrong. The problem with your side of the argument, IMO, is that there are many more scenerios where The Tin Man runs a better race than Cacique and loses to him than the opposite. The Tin Man will most likely be doing some work early and Cacique is more likely to be sucking up. Sort of the opposite of the Arlington Million.

Are there going to be any other speed horses in there? I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't much speed in the race. TTM may get a very soft pace again.

Depends if Tagg learns to be more flexible and runs Showing Up in the Mile where he would at least have a chance. It also depends on whether or not the race is oversubscribed as someone ( Coolmore for instance should they run Hurricane Run ) could employ a rabbit.

Personally, I don't think it matters, as I have to believe the Euros that will come will simply be too good. Remember, Cacique fled to the easy pickings over here because there was little chance he could still be effective at any kind of high level over there. Good move.

not all horses leave europe to find easier pickings, but to find firmer ground....or to get on the dirt, like mineshaft and cigar.

Cigar didnt leave Europe to get on dirt. He raced quite a bit on turf before Mott decided to try dirt.

Well, I think we can rule out dirt in Cacique's case, but I can't argue with everything you said. On the other hand I don't believe this was the case for 5YO Cacique.

Cigar never ran in Europe.

hmmm...thought he did. maybe it was just turf over here....been a while!!