8 of them ran...and they all got buried.

217 down, only 783 more to go.

The nags managed to blow another $8,705 today to bring the grand total up to $268,707 without a single win.

Bums for Wednesday:

Assiniboia Downs Race #2: Power Coffee

Delaware Park Race #6: Shezoutahere

Del Mar Race #5: Rock On Misty

Del Mar Race #6: A Kings Life

Del Mar Race #8: Superchupacabra

Evangeline Downs Race #1: Chelsea Diablo

Hoosier Race #2: Rip Snorter

Hoosier Race #3: My Ten Dollars

Hoosier Race #10: Perpetuate

Penn National Race #1: Three Kisses and Sea's Sweet Billie

Penn National Race #3: Saratoga Mo

Penn National Race #6: Kash Kow Kaz

Penn National Race #8: Manhattan Red

Presque Isle Downs Race #4: Eve the Dancer

Presque Isle Downs Race #5: Indian Empire

Portland Meadows Race #5: Stelladelnorth and Lei Of Gold

Remington Race #2: Bambino La Scalla and City Legend

Remington Race #5: Ardythe Mcgee

Remington Race #9: Lacie's Bonus

Saratoga Race #2: Money in Return

Saratoga Race #6: Perfect Footprint

Saratoga Race #10: Stormin Esther

Suffolk Race #1: Bright Alice

Suffolk Race #4: Double Devilish

Suffolk Race #6: Esther Iron Cross and Coyote Eyes

Suffolk Race #10: Coby and Awesome Preacher

Thistle Downs Race #3: Kinkcachu

Woodbine Race #2: Trajectamax

Woodbine Race #7: Prince Nyke

I hope you don't get impatient with this. I think there are very few people on the planet who could pull this off. just sayin...

Really? I don't think it would be that difficult, though the rapidity with which he is doing it is impressive.

I don't think anyone could do it faster, and if I had to bet my life on it I'd want Doug at the controls. It's not as easy at it seems.

It's a lot trickier than it looks -- especially doing it 24 hours and before scratches.

There have been scores of winners in the 40/1 to 90/1 range in different parts of the country almost every single day. Most of them you never hear about -- other than like that bomb at Calder who won with a Mine That Bird like move and was absurdly mentioned in the Louisville blog and in a thread here.

Today was a very slow day because it was Tuesday and not many tracks ran -- but you had an $88 winner and a $68 winner. You had one race where a 1/9 favorite broke down. You had another race where a horse won by 32 lengths at Finger Lakes. Last Tuesday, you had two 46/1 shots run 1st and 2nd in the same race. Strange stuff even happens on Tuesdays when almost no tracks run.

You see some weird stuff in that some of these bums are way overbet. The horse in the 5th race at Suffolk today went off at 23/1 odds and finished 6th of seven. Amazingly, a horse who looked far better in there went off at 45/1 and finished 3rd.

Here's the form of the monster who won by 32 lengths today:



Chart:

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120828&RN=1

The 2nd place finisher had finished 14.5 lengths in front of this winner Meesh on July 17th just two starts back.

The nine who ran today all got smoked.

226 down, 774 more to go.

The bums today managed to blow a decent-for-a-Tuesday $3,355 bringing the grand total up to $272,062.

Tomorrow looks like it could be a banner day and could easily push over 300k.

One thing I used to do pretty well was eliminate horses that I thought had little to no chance of winning. Like Big Brown in the Belmont, for instance.

Given sufficient time and motivation, and sticking to circuits I follow, I'd be able to do this.

Big Brown had a shoe come unhinged in the Belmont. That's why I believe he was beaten a pole by D' Tara and racing in extreme discomfort suddenly going into the 1st turn. I picked against Big Brown in my column and took Denis Of Cork in that race (who was 2nd and came out of it with an injury)

I was even mocked by several different posters on this board for knocking Big Brown's Preakness win and saying I felt Denis Of Cork might have beaten him had he run that day.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...2&postcount=32

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...5&postcount=12

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...3&postcount=22


Still, saying Big Brown had little or no chance of winning that race is silly. He was by far the best horse in the race and even though his Preakness was a massively overrated performance ... he had a magician like Dutrow Jr. training him and his Kentucky Derby performance was spectacular.

If you recall, you chastised me mightily for my private take going into the Belmont, that I wouldn't have been surprised if he breaks down or DNF's in the Belmont.

You really think a thrown shoe caused that to happen, and I said that he looked like he was a very sore and unsound horse during the Preakness stretch run?

In fact, you called me an idiot for wanting to drop him from the TVG fantasy contest at that point. The only thing that stopped me from dropping him is that I had no idea who could possibly be used in his place, but I was completely convinced he couldn't win.

Maybe you can get Riot to post some article for you explaining how it was the shoe!

That's another thing, his performance drop from KY to the Preakness was huge.

Even without the obvious soreness he showed, he was a great bet against.

He didn't throw the shoe -- it remained on his foot and was unhinged throughout the race with what looks like a nail going into his foot with each stride.




It would be like trying to run a race with a pebble in your shoe causing you discomfort.

Big Brown was not seriously hurt -- he came right back and won the Haskell.

A nail going into his foot with each stride? You mean the same nail that would have been there anyways?

Bums for Thursday:

Arlington Race #1: Jacob's Lighthouse

Arlington Race #5: Rockin Afleet

Arlington Race #8: Reckless Moment

Canterbury Race #2: Hearts Don't Lie

Canterbury Race #3: Dangerous Peg

Canterbury Race #5: I Sir Frisk Me Now

Canterbury Race #6: Jayembro and Prince Raj

Canterbury Race #9: I'm the Gold

Calder Race #5: Mom's Wildcat

Charles Town Race #1: Mr Balboa

Del Mar Race #3: Bella Marino

Del Mar Race #9: Princethefifth

Evangeline Race #5: Springville

Evangeline Race #11: Talk About Good

Finger Lakes Race #5: Dear Marylou

Finger Lakes Race #7: Millennium Pride and Mom's Proof

Finger Lakes Race #9: My Wooddrow

Hoosier Race #1: Hav Lota Faith

Hoosier Race #2: C J Cherokee and Backstretch Babe

Hoosier Race #3: Virginia and Tonic

Hoosier Race #4: Jaydee

Monmouth Race #1: Jaz E Jaz

Monmouth Race #5: Six Shooter Kid

River Downs Race #1: Irene the Big One

River Downs Race #4: Mini Miss Tori

Saratoga Race #3: More Falling Stars

Saratoga Race #11: Touch Of Royalty

29 ran tonight, nary a one hit the board.

Yet amongst all the futility of the bums they somehow managed to induce $23,813 in win bets, bringing the grand total so far to $295,875, an impressive total, but somewhat short of the 300k predicted. But the bums are still on pace right now to lose $1 million, although it may be tough to keep up that pace once Saratoga and Del Mar close.

Jacob's Lighthouse (off at 30-1) actually finished 2nd in a scratched decimated field where the show wagering was cancelled. A 10 horse race scratched down to 5.

CJ Cherokee finished 3rd at 50-1 in a 9 horse field.

Hearts Don't Lie (40-1) just got a nice ground saving trip by Wilfredo Arroyo. Finished 5th, but was maybe only 4 lengths off the winner.

Doug, I think like you said, the hardest part has to be doing this 24 hours in advance, pre-scratches.

The record right now is 281 starts 0 wins 3 seconds 2 thirds and 3 fourths.

Yeah -- CJ Cherokee may have finished 3rd -- but she was beaten 15 lengths and never tried to win ... just grinded past the quitters.

Like you said, half of the field scratched at Arlington. You're left with 5 horses and one of the bums finishes 2nd in what became a real weak race.

One of the horses at Monmouth went off at 15/1 odds and got buried.

This is trickier to do than people think. Rock Hard Ten told me he was absolutely sure he could beat 100 straight morning line favorites -- he quit after just three -- two of them won and the other finished 2nd.

281 down, only 719 more to go.

Today's bums lost another $19,378 to bring the grand total up to $315,253. Out of the 281 that have run so far, really only one (the one that ran 2nd at Saratoga a week or so ago) has been any kind of real threat to win.

Bums for Friday:

Arlington Park Race #2: Secret Glitter

Arlington Park Race #6: Spirit of a Nation

Canterbury Race #9: Sir Gallient Vee

Calder Race #6: One Helluva Ride

Charles Town Race #2: Sharpie's Son

Charles Town Race #3: Affair Arrangement

Del Mar Race #7: White Star Line

Ellis Park Race #2: Mr Gues

Evangeline Downs Race #10: Halo's Jubilee

Hoosier Race #3: Zealously

Hoosier Race #6: Could Be Michael

Hoosier Race #8: Search the Lou

Monmouth Race #3: Hav'n a Fog Attack

Penn National Race #3: Scooter Tax

Presque Isle Downs Race #1: Dispute Forgotten

Presque Isle Downs Race #7: Velvet Dancer

Portland Meadows Race #5: Jazzoomin

Portland Meadows Race #6: Lil Boy

Parx Race #2: Wild and Away

Saratoga Race #1: Lemon Song

Saratoga Race #6: Winning Gold

Saratoga Race #7: Burned Bridges

Thistle Downs Race #6: Autumn Fling and Unique Indygo

Thistle Downs Race #7: Hofre Doll

Woodbine Race #4: Bare Humor

It always strikes me as odd that stories like this about him can be so completely unsurprising....and yet are somehow still funny every time.

Doug, I think your 3 Hoosier Picks must be from a different day?

They all ran today.

Zealousy finished 9th in the 3rd race. Could Be Micheal finished 6th in the 6th race. And Seach The Lou Finished 9th in the 9th race.

I see that now. My ADW was showing some screwy results earlier from Hoosier.

23 of them ran -- and they all got dusted.

304 down, only 696 more to go.

The bums managed to lose another new car today, or $23,982, to bring the grand total to $339,235.

Just for the record both Autumn Fling and Lemon Song managed distant thirds in short 5-horse fields, where they were beaten 15 and 26 lengths respectively.

Bums for Saturday:

Albuquerque Race #10: Tehuantepecer

Canterbury Race #3: Gold Territory

Canterbury Race #9: Chicken Juice and Pumpkin Seed

Columbus Race #8: Save the Farm

Calder Race #12: Her Private Life

Delaware Park Race #4: Dubai's Debut

Del Mar Race #1: Hip

Del Mar Race #2: Harlan's Trick

Ellis Park Race #2: Myland

Ellis Park Race #7: Big Reds Lil Flyer

Evangeline Race #8: Bekos Shot and Cajun Luke

Finger Lakes Race #9: First Dine

Golden Gate Race #3: Smiles Contagious

Hoosier Race #1: Great Sky Dancer

Hoosier Race #8: Snowy Ride

Louisiana Downs Race #5: Miss Aranza

Mountaineer Race #9: Seven Tigers

Monmouth Race #1: Front View

Penn National Race #2: Gambine Road

Penn National Race #3: City Sky

Penn National Race #8: Tri's Hero

Ruidoso Race #6: Real Mcgee

Ruidoso Race #10: Big Spirited John

Saratoga Race #3: Joker Jack

Saratoga Race #7: Page Mckenney

Saratoga Race #12: Rachini

Suffolk Race #7: Gator Champ

Thistle Downs Race #4: Sunday Reward

Thistle Downs Race #7: Mind the Law

Timonioum Race #2: Newyorklover

Timonioum Race #6: Lacrosse Moon

Timonioum Race #8: Heir Tothe Kingdom

Woodbine Race #1: Ocala Dawn

Woodbine Race #5: Twilight Shadow

I am now cross-checking my daily plays against your list to make sure none of mine are on there. So far, so good!

I still don't know how (or why) you do this. Can you make money with your "picks" on an exchange-betting site (if any exist)?

Some of them went off at shockingly low odds today.

One went off at 9/1 odds -- finished last beaten 30+ lengths.

One went off at 13/1 odds -- last beaten 30+ lengths.

One went off at 14/1 odds -- last beaten 17 lengths going just 4 furlongs.

One went off at 20/1 odds -- last beaten 75.5 lengths according to the result chart.

Great thread , Love it !!!! And yes Doug, CJ's Figs are the best in the Biz, was there from the inception. Keep going :tro:

334 down, only 666 more to go.

The website I use to calculate the pools is down, but from what I saw earlier I estimate that the bums lost about $23,000 today which would bring the grand total to $362,235.

I'm curious if your friend whose comment about it being harder to pick 1000 losers than 10 winners is aware of this thread and if so, what do they think of it?

I showed him it. He can't believe I haven't tripped up yet.

He's bet a few people they couldn't pick one loser in each race at PID for a week. PID has just five cards of 8 races in a week -- so, just 40 races a week.

He says both people who took him up lost. He won't make the bet on that with me, though.


Bums for Sunday:

Arlington Race #2: Howard Who

Canterbury Race #7: Caring Karen

Canterbury Race #11: Big Willo and Dame Steely

Del Mar Race #8: Miss Denny

Fort Erie Race #1: Chief No Tell

Louisiana Downs Race #9: Kaki Cain

Mountaineer Race #3: Ifpushcomestoshove

Portland Meadows Race #5: Midnitesruntoglory and Mining For Crystal

Portland Meadows Race #7: Regal Vixen and Red Ball Express

Ruidoso Race #5: Pretty Eliza Jane

Ruidoso Race #8: Bad Bad Leroy Who

Saratoga Race #3: Irish Etiquette

Saratoga Race #4: Praetorian Guard

Saratoga Race #11: House On Toilsome and Style Watch

Timonioum Race #3: April Pride and Spring Dragon

A few scratches. 4 of your horses ran 4th. 2 of those were in 8 horse fields, 1 was in a 7 horse field and the other was in a 4 horse field.

Yes, one of the horses who ran 4th (and last because it was a 4 horse field) went off at 5/1 odds -- he was beaten 13 lengths.

352 down, only 648 more to go.

Today's bums managed to lose a solid $26,863 bringing the grand total so far to $389,098.