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-   -   NBA CHAMPIONSHIP: Who wins and in how many games (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=47112)

Calzone Lord 06-16-2012 03:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell (Post 869210)
http://www.nba.com/playoffs/2012/fin...ls=st&g=2&t=bs

Last night Derek Fisher was terrible. He couldnt hit open shots, had no assists, 1 rebound and was no factor on defense except for maybe 1 or 2 plays. He was +13. Kevin Durant was Kevin Durant and he was a -9.

Kevin Durant plays A LOT of minutes. He's not the strongest dude either.

I would bet that if he played Derek Fisher minutes he would have the best plus/minus on the team going away.

In the Spurs series -- Fisher was +27. OKC outscored the Spurs by 27 points when Fisher was on the court ... when he wasn't on the court, the Spurs outscored OKC by 1 point over the entire series.

This tells me that Derek Fisher (who has 5 rings) has been playing well in his back-up point guard role.

Harden was +47 in the Spurs Series (Spurs outscored OKC by 21 in the series when he wasn't on the court) and he also was +13 along with Fisher in a game that OKC just lost to the Miami heat.

I would feel pretty good about having Harden and Fisher as back-ups. In limited minutes, they seem to be providing a spark for their team.

Cannon Shell 06-17-2012 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 869281)
Isn't your value to your team determined by how much better you are than your replacement?

No it is determined by how much prodution you give them. Not to mention the lineup you play with and against can impact the number as well. If James goes out of the game the other team is likely to take out its best defensive player (assuming that is who is guarding James) because you try to get him rest when James isnt in because he plays so much. So a player on the court for Miami is now playing against a lineup w/o its best defensive player which artificially inflates the replacements +/-. Plus in a 5 on 5 situation an individual player can only have so much impact on scoring and scoring prevention. In theory if everyone was equal on a given team then they would all contribute 20% to offense and defense while on the court. But obviously that isnt reality but even the top players like James/Durant/Kobe etc can only have so much impact on scoring or defending. Other factors are starters are begining the game facing other starters (usually the other teams best players with a few notable exceptions like Harden and Ginobelli) and are playing the tougher to score minutes at the end of games. Backups are getting more time against other backups and there is sometimes a huge difference between players 5,6 and 7 on bad teams and good teams.

Cannon Shell 06-17-2012 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 869282)
Kevin Durant plays A LOT of minutes. He's not the strongest dude either.

I would bet that if he played Derek Fisher minutes he would have the best plus/minus on the team going away.

In the Spurs series -- Fisher was +27. OKC outscored the Spurs by 27 points when Fisher was on the court ... when he wasn't on the court, the Spurs outscored OKC by 1 point over the entire series.

This tells me that Derek Fisher (who has 5 rings) has been playing well in his back-up point guard role.

Harden was +47 in the Spurs Series (Spurs outscored OKC by 21 in the series when he wasn't on the court) and he also was +13 along with Fisher in a game that OKC just lost to the Miami heat.

I would feel pretty good about having Harden and Fisher as back-ups. In limited minutes, they seem to be providing a spark for their team.

There are no metrics that would tell you Fisher has been playing well. The one you are using is not accurate because perhaps a better player would be +50 in his place.

The entire =/- stat is so misleading. It is like saying a horse who runs in 1:12.3 is better than one who runs in 1:13.2 just because the time is faster without regard to the track surface, pace, weather, etc. If SA shoots poorly it isn't necessarily because OKC or individual players defended them well. Sometimes you just miss shots. Same thing with +/-.

Fisher has been horrific

In his last 5 games (2 against Miami and 3 against SA)
Fisher has played 110 minutes (9 quarters)
He is 10-27 from the field
He is 1-13 on 3 pt shots
He has 8 rebounds
He has 7 assists (4 in one game)
He has 0 blocked shots
He has 4 steals


Honestly it is hard to be this bad and still play that many minutes but OKC doesn't really have many options outside of D. Cook who is a worse defensive player (not easy to do) and cant play point.

Coach Pants 06-17-2012 09:44 PM

Westbrook almost makes me want to root for the Heat...almost. Pass. To. Durant. Hipster. Douche.

King Glorious 06-17-2012 10:41 PM

I really thought Miami couldn't deal with OKC but they are proving me wrong. I'm not sure why Brooks is helping them out so much with his substitutions. Why in the world was Westbrook out when Durant went out with his fourth foul? Why did Ibaka play so little? Westbrook is too young to need a rest. He should be able to go 48 every night. I just don't get it. At the same time, James is certainly not choking. He went for 29 and 14 boards tonight. Scored 16 in the first half and 13 in the second. Had eight in the last quarter and a couple of nice assists and rebounds in addition to keeping Durant in check. He's certainly not going to be the reason his team loses if they do.

Calzone Lord 06-18-2012 06:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell (Post 869642)
No it is determined by how much prodution you give them. Not to mention the lineup you play with and against can impact the number as well.

Ok. I see what you're saying.

Still, it's hard to disregard the fact that Lebron James' teams get outscored every single year when he isn't on the court, and that they absolutely dominate like no other team in the NBA every single year when he is on the court.

This stat aside -- how well do you think his teams would have done without him for the entire last four seasons?

Do you think they would have been better than .500?

Which of his last four teams was the best team? The Cleveland team that went 66-16

The 2nd leading scorer on that team was Mo Williams (he played 54 games and made just one start this season) and the 3rd leading scorer was Zydrunas Ilgauskas (The Big Z!) and he was comically uncooridanted and is out of the NBA.

I don't know much basketball -- and I understand your point about all of the flaws that come into play with the +/- stat ... and I don't even like anything about Ledouche James ... but everything I look at points to him being clear-cut the best player in the NBA every single year for the last four years.

Cannon Shell 06-18-2012 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 869722)
Ok. I see what you're saying.

Still, it's hard to disregard the fact that Lebron James' teams get outscored every single year when he isn't on the court, and that they absolutely dominate like no other team in the NBA every single year when he is on the court.

This stat aside -- how well do you think his teams would have done without him for the entire last four seasons?

Do you think they would have been better than .500?

Which of his last four teams was the best team? The Cleveland team that went 66-16

The 2nd leading scorer on that team was Mo Williams (he played 54 games and made just one start this season) and the 3rd leading scorer was Zydrunas Ilgauskas (The Big Z!) and he was comically uncooridanted and is out of the NBA.

I don't know much basketball -- and I understand your point about all of the flaws that come into play with the +/- stat ... and I don't even like anything about Ledouche James ... but everything I look at points to him being clear-cut the best player in the NBA every single year for the last four years.

You dont need the +/- to know that. His game is overanalyzed to the point of hysteria though the media has seemingly switched over to Westbrook since it has been pretty hard to fault Lebron.

Scott Brooks is being completely outcoached. Having Derek Fisher in the game for as long as he did last night was a huge mistake. But despite none of OKC's players playing particularly well they lost the game because Miami made FT's and they didn't.

Cannon Shell 06-18-2012 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell (Post 869650)
There are no metrics that would tell you Fisher has been playing well. The one you are using is not accurate because perhaps a better player would be +50 in his place.

The entire =/- stat is so misleading. It is like saying a horse who runs in 1:12.3 is better than one who runs in 1:13.2 just because the time is faster without regard to the track surface, pace, weather, etc. If SA shoots poorly it isn't necessarily because OKC or individual players defended them well. Sometimes you just miss shots. Same thing with +/-.

Fisher has been horrific

In his last 5 games (2 against Miami and 3 against SA)
Fisher has played 110 minutes (9 quarters)
He is 10-27 from the field
He is 1-13 on 3 pt shots
He has 8 rebounds
He has 7 assists (4 in one game)
He has 0 blocked shots
He has 4 steals


Honestly it is hard to be this bad and still play that many minutes but OKC doesn't really have many options outside of D. Cook who is a worse defensive player (not easy to do) and cant play point.

6 games
13-35
3-16
8 rebounds
7 assists
0 Blocks
6 steals

King Glorious 06-18-2012 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 869722)
Ok. I see what you're saying.

Still, it's hard to disregard the fact that Lebron James' teams get outscored every single year when he isn't on the court, and that they absolutely dominate like no other team in the NBA every single year when he is on the court.

This stat aside -- how well do you think his teams would have done without him for the entire last four seasons?

Do you think they would have been better than .500?

Which of his last four teams was the best team? The Cleveland team that went 66-16

The 2nd leading scorer on that team was Mo Williams (he played 54 games and made just one start this season) and the 3rd leading scorer was Zydrunas Ilgauskas (The Big Z!) and he was comically uncooridanted and is out of the NBA.

I don't know much basketball -- and I understand your point about all of the flaws that come into play with the +/- stat ... and I don't even like anything about Ledouche James ... but everything I look at points to him being clear-cut the best player in the NBA every single year for the last four years.

I doubt either of the Cavs teams make the playoffs without him. Miami does but doesn't make it to the finals. I think second round at best. Going back to the 2007 season, I don't even think the team he took to the finals gets out of the first round, if they even make the playoffs. The only thing I've seen that rivals that is Iverson taking the Sixers to the finals in 2001.

Most people who are objective have long since admitted he's the clear best player. He's not the best scorer or the best shooter or the best rebounder, etc., but he best combines all of those in addition to being the best passer and defender. There is no other player that gives you as much in so many areas of the game as James does.

RockHardTen1985 06-19-2012 02:41 AM

I bet Miami and figured they would drop game 3. This series is over. Could be 5.

Coach Pants 06-19-2012 06:06 AM

Hmm. Might hop a plane to Vegas today.

King Glorious 06-19-2012 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 869862)
I bet Miami and figured they would drop game 3. This series is over. Could be 5.

This is very premature. OKC is right on par with Miami and it's extremely hard to beat a team at this level four straight times. If I were betting, I'd still go with OKC for the win although I'm much higher on Miami's chances now than I was at the start thanks to Scotty Brooks and James Harden.

Dahoss 06-19-2012 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious (Post 869910)
This is very premature. OKC is right on par with Miami and it's extremely hard to beat a team at this level four straight times. If I were betting, I'd still go with OKC for the win although I'm much higher on Miami's chances now than I was at the start thanks to Scotty Brooks and James Harden.

Of course it's premature but if he just acted normal no one would respond to him.

Everything is premature now. After game 1, everyone was saying Miami couldn't beat OKC. Now they are up 2-1.

AlreadyHome 06-19-2012 07:44 PM

Heat
 
Miami in 6

Cannon Shell 06-19-2012 10:44 PM

I was wrong. Harden has a long way to go. Ibaka looks clueless.

Coach Pants 06-19-2012 10:48 PM

Congrats to Russell Westbrook. Allen Iverson is proud of you, son. SWAG SWAG. You got 43 in a playoff game!! Woo hoo.

I was wrong about LeBron. He's great.

The NBA, however, is awful.

Dahoss 06-19-2012 10:51 PM

Yeah, Lebron has proved me wrong as well. He's been terrific.

Coach Pants 06-19-2012 10:57 PM

I'm not impressed with Brooks at all. To me, it seems he has absolutely no control of the team.

I don't care if there are 5 Michael Jordan clones on the court...you get the ball to your star player.

RockHardTen1985 06-19-2012 11:11 PM

No great shakes here, but like I said. Miami in 5.

King Glorious 06-20-2012 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants (Post 870005)
Congrats to Russell Westbrook. Allen Iverson is proud of you, son. SWAG SWAG. You got 43 in a playoff game!! Woo hoo.

I was wrong about LeBron. He's great.

The NBA, however, is awful.

I think it's obvious that you hate individual greatness in a player. You totally hated James because you said he wasn't a winner. If they win this thing, that won't make him a better player. He's still the same player. Now you are on Westbrook's case. What exactly was he supposed to do? Harden was giving them nothing and Durant was looking tentative for long stretches. Meanwhile, Westbrook was in that "zone" and couldn't be stopped. Was he supposed to stop shooting and give it to Harden more or maybe Fisher or Sefolosha? It's not as if he came in the interview room afterwards saying "yeah, I know we lost but hey, I got mine." He said that his 43 didn't matter because they lost. He played a tremendous game and I really don't see how he can be faulted for that. Then again, I remember when James scored 45 against the Celtics in Boston in game seven and lost and people blamed him.

Coach Pants 06-20-2012 06:39 AM

Yeah you're right. I totally remember Scottie Pippen being the scorer for the bulls. WTF am I thinking?

The finals have been absolutely f.ucking awful. Go ahead and worship the guy and completely dismiss the fact that a missed layup by Tarden dashed any hopes of a tied series.

That was some youth league s.hit.

I actually feel sorry for OKC fans. They have a good team with a terrible coach who was terrible as a player and is getting exposed by SPOELSTRA who was exposed by the Dallas Mavericks coach.

The NBA is terrible. The only good thing about it was LeBron choking.

cmorioles 06-20-2012 09:39 AM

Westbrook was incredible last night. If it wasn't for him, the Thunder lose by 20. Durant simply isn't strong enough to get the ball a lot of the time.

I find it incredibly difficult to stomach the constant phantom fouls when Wade and James shoot. It really is sickening. Half the time,the refs can't even figure out who to call the foul on after the whistle, so they just make something up. On top of that, Westbrook was fouled a minimum of 10 times last night, 2 were called. Yeah, that makes sense.

cmorioles 06-20-2012 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell (Post 870003)
I was wrong. Harden has a long way to go. Ibaka looks clueless.

Yes, I told you he is no max guy, at least not at this point in his career. He has at least saved the Thunder some money.

Coach Pants 06-20-2012 09:52 AM

Yeah well of course they lose big because then it's 4 on 5.

When was the last time a league scoring leader averaged less than 20 shot attempts in a finals?

So he's all of a sudden too weak to get the ball? Ok.

cmorioles 06-20-2012 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants (Post 870045)
Yeah well of course they lose big because then it's 4 on 5.

When was the last time a league scoring leader averaged less than 20 shot attempts in a finals?

So he's all of a sudden too weak to get the ball? Ok.

He isn't guarded by Lebron all the time. He looked asleep half the game. You realize he didn't get a single defensive rebound the entire game?

Coach Pants 06-20-2012 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 870049)
He isn't guarded by Lebron all the time. He looked asleep half the game. You realize he didn't get a single defensive rebound the entire game?

Fully aware. I've been caught off guard. Didn't watch the Thunder play much this year so I was unaware he has mental issues.

Time to call Phil Jackson. Scott has lost him.

Dahoss 06-20-2012 10:19 AM

What's up with Harden? Would he rather be somewhere else?

cmorioles 06-20-2012 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 870054)
What's up with Harden? Would he rather be somewhere else?

I don't think so, I just think he was put on this stage too fast. Shots stopped dropping and now he is playing a little scared.

Dahoss 06-20-2012 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 870061)
I don't think so, I just think he was put on this stage too fast. Shots stopped dropping and now he is playing a little scared.

Makes his trash talking to Kobe earlier in the year even funnier now.

The guy is a good player, but nowhere near the player people were making him out to be before the series. For all of the crap Westbrook takes, Harden has been the one who has been a total no show the entire series.

cmorioles 06-20-2012 11:56 AM

Westbrook is, always has been, and always will be better than Harden. He didn't really talk trash to Kobe, other than responding.

Indian Charlie 06-20-2012 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 870043)
Westbrook was incredible last night. If it wasn't for him, the Thunder lose by 20. Durant simply isn't strong enough to get the ball a lot of the time.

I find it incredibly difficult to stomach the constant phantom fouls when Wade and James shoot. It really is sickening. Half the time,the refs can't even figure out who to call the foul on after the whistle, so they just make something up. On top of that, Westbrook was fouled a minimum of 10 times last night, 2 were called. Yeah, that makes sense.

You do realize the NBA is practically scripted.

The two darling Stern darling teams made the finals, what a shock.

The more darling of the two is getting dramatically favored by the refs. Another shock.

King Glorious 06-20-2012 02:50 PM

It's always funny to read people talking about the games being set up. I guess the league never wanted to see James vs Bryant in the finals, especially when Shaq was in Cleveland. That wouldn't have made for good TV at all. I guess they don't want large market teams like NY or Chicago in there and would much rather have OKC, SA, and Orlando in there. I also love how they want James to win so much that eight years in, he's still never won. If anything, I'd bet that the league would rather he lose because he's a much bigger draw and more polarizing when people can make the "yeah but he's never won" argument. Were the Rose and Howard injuries both faked to make his path easier this year? Did he almost derail Stern’s plans last night with that whole fake cramp thing or was that part of the script? Talk all you want about fouls but that is not what is deciding this series. If OKC is getting anything from Harden, they are up 3-1 instead. Who scripted Battier in those first three games or Chalmers and Cole last night? Were the OKC players told to let them score? Has Harden been paid to miss? I would have loved to have been in the meeting where the league told Harden to play bad on purpose and he agreed. I'm still waiting for the first player to come out and say that the league approached him and asked him to do his best to lose. How much do you offer a guy making $10 million plus to give up their dream?

It's not incomprehensible to believe that outside sources could get to a player and force him to compromise his game or to a coach and make him compromise his team's chances with how he coaches. I wouldn't doubt some OKC fans are wondering if the mob got to Brooks and that's why Fisher was on the court so much. But the league doing it? No chance.

Calzone Lord 06-20-2012 02:53 PM

Of course it isn't rigged.

Maybe star players get preferential treatment from the refs in terms of calls -- but it's been that way at least since Jordan was playing.

Coach Pants 06-20-2012 03:05 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaZIAXJJDKQ

Calzone Lord 06-20-2012 03:09 PM

I probably got fooled by randomness with Fisher and Harden a little.

Yesterday, they had no spark coming off of the bench and they were a -4 and a -5

The Miami Heat only had three players come off the bench and play more than 3 minutes:

James Jones (20 minutes) +8
Udonis Haslem (11 minutes) +9
Norris Cole (8 minutes) +12


Everyone wants to talk about the stars -- but this game was decided by the bench players. James Jones, Haslem, and Norris Cole were better than Harden and Fisher. If that happens, it's almost impossible for OKC to win no matter what the starters do.

Norris Cole played 8 minutes, scored 8 points, grabbed 2 rebounds, and was +12. Had he played starter minutes (36 minutes) he was on pace to score 36 points, grab 9 rebounds, and Miami was on pace to outscore OKC by 54 points with him on the floor.

He's a rookie from the Horizon league who just played over his head. Harden and Fisher just need to play better a lot better than the chumps off of Miami's bench.

Calzone Lord 06-20-2012 03:12 PM

Sorry, I had to do it to annoy Cannon Shell.

golfer 06-20-2012 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants (Post 870095)

"Everything in the NBA is completely Legit"

Tim Donaghy

King Glorious 06-20-2012 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 870096)
I probably got fooled by randomness with Fisher and Harden a little.

Yesterday, they had no spark coming off of the bench and they were a -4 and a -5

The Miami Heat only had three players come off the bench and play more than 3 minutes:

James Jones (20 minutes) +8
Udonis Haslem (11 minutes) +9
Norris Cole (8 minutes) +12


Everyone wants to talk about the stars -- but this game was decided by the bench players. James Jones, Haslem, and Norris Cole were better than Harden and Fisher. If that happens, it's almost impossible for OKC to win no matter what the starters do.

Norris Cole played 8 minutes, scored 8 points, grabbed 2 rebounds, and was +12. Had he played starter minutes (36 minutes) he was on pace to score 36 points, grab 9 rebounds, and Miami was on pace to outscore OKC by 54 points with him on the floor.

He's a rookie from the Horizon league who just played over his head. Harden and Fisher just need to play better a lot better than the chumps off of Miami's bench.

Had he played startes minutes against the OKC starters, he likely would have scored 10 points and had three rebounds and fouled out trying to guard Westbrook. That's if he didn't pass out from exhaustion at the 24 minute mark.

Your point is correct though. The stars are basically cancelling each other out. Miami is getting a bit more from their third star than OKC is but Westbrook more than offset that last night with his advantage over Wade. It's the role players. Battier was huge those first three games. Last night, Chalmers and Cole were the difference. What I don't understand is why Brooks continues to rely on his role players as much as he does? There is no reason why Durant and Westbrook can't be on the court 48 minutes a night. They have all summer to rest.

Indian Charlie 06-20-2012 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious (Post 870091)
It's always funny to read people talking about the games being set up. I guess the league never wanted to see James vs Bryant in the finals, especially when Shaq was in Cleveland. That wouldn't have made for good TV at all. I guess they don't want large market teams like NY or Chicago in there and would much rather have OKC, SA, and Orlando in there. I also love how they want James to win so much that eight years in, he's still never won. If anything, I'd bet that the league would rather he lose because he's a much bigger draw and more polarizing when people can make the "yeah but he's never won" argument. Were the Rose and Howard injuries both faked to make his path easier this year? Did he almost derail Stern’s plans last night with that whole fake cramp thing or was that part of the script? Talk all you want about fouls but that is not what is deciding this series. If OKC is getting anything from Harden, they are up 3-1 instead. Who scripted Battier in those first three games or Chalmers and Cole last night? Were the OKC players told to let them score? Has Harden been paid to miss? I would have loved to have been in the meeting where the league told Harden to play bad on purpose and he agreed. I'm still waiting for the first player to come out and say that the league approached him and asked him to do his best to lose. How much do you offer a guy making $10 million plus to give up their dream?

It's not incomprehensible to believe that outside sources could get to a player and force him to compromise his game or to a coach and make him compromise his team's chances with how he coaches. I wouldn't doubt some OKC fans are wondering if the mob got to Brooks and that's why Fisher was on the court so much. But the league doing it? No chance.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 870094)
Of course it isn't rigged.

Maybe star players get preferential treatment from the refs in terms of calls -- but it's been that way at least since Jordan was playing.

Absolutely it's rigged. I mean beyond any shadow of a doubt.

Doesn't anyone remember game 6 of the Kings vs Lakers game back in 2002?????????????????????

If you can watch players like Jordan, Wade, etc. get away with flagrant rule breaking and not say it's rigged, you are idiotic.

Indian Charlie 06-20-2012 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants (Post 870095)

That's a classic Coach!

However, can anyone with even six brain cells left in their head watch this short clip and not realize Boston had no hope of beating Miami this year???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjvlxqJFOj0


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