In theory it is very easy to do.

It starts with betting exchanges, in-race betting, and a return to low takeout. Low exotic takeout pools.

Pittsburgh Phil was a cork cutter making $5 a week with no formal education -- his initial goal in life was to be a harness trainer.

The people who play fantasy sports, poker, day-trade stock, the people I see by the hundreds when I go to the casino here at 4AM on a Monday and no booze is served ... people like that will come out of the woodwork. Those are the kind that can be useful 7day a week fans and bettors who can carry the water.


Climate a hundred years ago...

I think you could be on to something, but what about educating these people? I have always thought that one of the biggest problems that the sport faces, is the so-called "homework" that needs to be done. Let's face it, it can be a very time consuming process. To make matters worse, the majority of these people are going to need some sort of introduction even before they get to the "homework" stage.

He was referring to Perrault Robbed.

Personally, that post saying it was ignorance and not passion smelled badly of an ass kissing.

I had two casual bettors come up to me on Belmont Stakes day and ask me about Mizzen Mast and if he is a good turf sire.

They were wondering about a horse in the race after the Belmont named Tazered who had been repeatedly entered on the turf but never got to run on it yet.

I told them that Mizzen Mast actually moved up on dirt for Frankel but that he is a fair turf sire. I told them both the name they should know is the damsire Spinning World. He won a Breeders Cup Mile and was 2nd to DaHoss in another.

I told them the dam of the horse was 2-for-2 in France and Team Valor paid $400,000 for her to bring her here -- but she never held up to race here.

I told them where they could find such information on the Internet for free -- and I told them that if they're too lazy to look it up -- just pay attention to that tracks tv show because BTW will give a lot of information like that out.

These guys enjoy themselves here and play on the weekends...but they are hopeless against a 15-to-20% takeout. If they started to hold their own and taste winning more often ... they would try harder and bet more.

I see a poster here named Ogygian at PID a lot. On Saturday, he was telling me stories about how Jean Cruget is a terrible bettor and bets numbers off the board. Maybe even Jean Cruget would try and do some homework if he wasn't so up against it.

"but they are hopeless against a 15-to-20% takeout"

Ya gotta be pretty good to beat that take. I don't know much about handicapping but what little I do know usually impresses casual people, they always ask if I make money (not really) and basically all I could do is beat the take, imagine getting another 15-20% on top of the take to make money, very difficult to do.

I don't think the sucker label is thrown around with Poker much...and that's the closest model to match parimutuel wagering. Except that the rake in poker is miniscule compared to the confiscatory takeout.

And to an earlier point made by someone else about having to pay for past performance data, where they don't do that in South Africa or Australia and the takeout is too high, the problem is that the takeout is being "taken out" by the government - who contribute nothing to the operation of the game. And work costs money - always - including the work of compiling, preparing, data mining and publishing information for bettors to use.

Doug, at least these guys have a base. They have a chance to broaden their knowledge if they do choose so.

I'll use myself as an example,
I went to the track a handful of times when I was a kid, my old man gave me a few bucks to bet each race. He was a program name bettor and he always covered gray horses too. We always watched the Kentucky Derby and Pleasant Colony is the first horse I remember.

We continued to go to the track once in a while as I got older and I really enjoyed it. I would bet names or go off what the track handicappers said. I would try to decipher what was in the program, but to no avail. Also when I started to drive, I would go to OTB and put in my own Derby bets.

I started working in the finacial industry when I was 19. Not only did everyone seem to bet on sports, they loved betting the horses (someone always had a supposed hot horse). I would end up going to the track a few times with the older guys I worked with, it was always alot of fun, that's when I picked up a form for the first time. It might as well been printed in Chinese. But I wanted to learn, so I went out and bought two books (Handicapping for Dummies and Betting Thoroughbreds) and tried to teach myself about reading a form and learning about the game.

I would eventually open a NYCOTB phone betting account. On weekends (especially in the winter) I would throw $50-80 bucks in the account and spend the day playing. My betting strategies and thought process behind it were terrible, but I really did enjoy myself. I really liked the game. Obviously, I deposited more than I withdrew.

When I turned 21, I took a bus trip to Atlantic City for the first time, I won $200 bucks and actually said to my friend on the ride home "how does this place stay in buisness?" We all know how that turned out, but there was a span there where my friends and I would go to AC every weekend. It was a given, it could be any day, any time, but we would always end up there. Obviously during this time, I got away from racing and the track. Then one day, I went on a golf outing and we ended up going to Monmouth after. I forgot how much fun the track was and enjoyed myself so much. It hit me that I would rather spend time there and play races versus constantly going to AC.

So I started to play more often. I would hang out in OTB's or play from home. I still bet like a mental patient (mostly exacta's and tri's), but I always have looked at it like it was a hobby (and I still feel the same today). I felt like I had an idea what I was doing and enjoyed the challange of putting that handicapping puzzle together. Even when my wife and I were dating, we would go to Monmouth and spend the day. We would both have a great time.

I ended up meeting Andy (we worked together) and he was always talking/watching horses. He would talk shop with anyone who wanted to chat. I think back to that time and am actually sorry that I didn't take more advantage of having him there. But we would talk, I would tell him about a horse I like and he would tell me how he could put on a horse costume and beat the horse I wanted to bet. But that's Andy and it's why everyone loves him so much. He tells it as it is. This was before he was a star, but he is still missed by a lot of guys down here.

But Andy is the one who steered me to Derby Trail. Not only have I made many friends here, but I have learned so much from many of you guys. And that knowledge I have picked up has made me want to learn more. It's made me read books like exotic betting and so on. Now I'm not afraid to make any wager at the track and actually perfer the multi's. Although at times I still bet and think like a mental midget. But through the years I really have developed a love for this game and still strive to learn more and get better. I still understand that I'm not going to get rich playing, but I really feel like I have a chance to make decent scores here and there. I'm still depositing more than I'm withdrwing, but thankfully I go to the window more often these days (definitely not Saturday though).

I guess all I'm trying to say in this long winded post is that all the sport needs is some exposure and re-enforcement. Give the people the means to get better while understanding and educating themselves about the game. Let's face it people are lazy, I did it the hard way, but give them the blueprint to understanding how to play the game. For now forget about the takeout, forget about the shady trainers just try to get the seed planted about how great the game is and how much fun getting out to the track can be.

Aside from meeting Andy (picked up the site off ATR on Sirius) and where I worked (when I lived back East) this is my story except my old man is a avid (relatively speaking) player. I think this story is the same for a lot of NJ people in their late 20s to early 40s.

I'm afraid that I am hopeless at posting a limk, but Steve Crist's blog entry today on DRF seems to me perhaps a more realistic overview of Belmont day and the quality of the Belmont Stakes itself.

Great post. :tro:

There's no way to post this without sounding like a shameless self-promoter, but at least there were some efforts made with regards to educating people who were there outside of the info that can be gathered from the NYRA feed with Andy, Maggie, etc.

America's Best Racing sponsored a fan education area with Horse Player NOW, and we wound up with two sets of teams to do the kind of fan education that at least helps casual bettors feel like they aren't just randomly picking horses and betting against themselves.

One area inside for foot traffic in the plant, and another out back by the wagering pavilion, and we saw some of the same people who found us in the Preakness infield just a few weeks earlier when we hosted a tent there with the Daily Racing Form.

It's remarkable, really, just how little help many of these people need to get even the most cursory handle on things. Lots of these casual, big event, fans are sharper than I/we give them credit for, but if they don't know where to start, they're going to get lost in the shuffle. It's all about logistics and money, for sure, but I know from firsthand experience at Pimlico the last three years and at Belmont Saturday that these kind of casual bettors CAN be turned into more serious players. It's not easy, but it's possible.

It really was a great day there, and the energy was surprisingly positive given the scratch of IHA.

I saw a video of some of the work you did and it was great stuff. You should be shamelessly self promoting it, because it's a great idea.

Totally agree with what you have said here. Teach them...and they are much more likely to come back.

The vids on Youtube are awesome. I'm going to send this video in my aol e-mail account to all of my internet friends. I might even fire up ICQ and spam it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGS53tEmom8

Did anyone else hear the Elliot in the Morning show in the DC area today?

It was painful to listen to them talk about horseracing and it was clear that he had been reading the NY Times articles and unfortunately his trips to Belmont Park on a weekday, and Pimlico during the Preakness, didn't help any to form a more positive opinion. It went far beyond doped and broken down horses -- the idea that all tracks are dirty, the patrons are drugged degenerates, the game robs people etc. A lot of my friends ride horses and have seen the "thrown away" thoroughbred and unfortunately that is the image that they base the entire industry on. The game needs a major image rehaul and is doing a terrible job of getting the entire story out. Our own instruments of exposing people to the game are even working against us...was it necessary for NBC to reshow and isolate on Giant Ryan breaking down? Or the tracks that think they are doing a service by providing 3 or 4 horses by their on-track experts -- what does that provide? A quick way to lose money is what is provides. Honestly, figuring out who the best horse is is pretty easy -- it's figuring out how to use that horse to make good money is what is going to attract people.

I was there Saturday and can totally understand where Steve is coming from. Despite everyone expecting to witness history just 24 hours prior, the mood was very positive. The place was packed and people were really enjoying themselves. It felt like the racing days when I was a kid. Don't get me started on all the gorgeous women dressed to the nines.

Was it the best product of racing? Absolutely not. But I did not get the sense that anyone really cared that they had witnessed a slow Belmont with an average field that IHA would have likely destroyed. Overall, NYRA did a very good job in putting on the product they had to work with. Could they have done better? I agree with Matt that they could have done more promotion and tried to promote other events. They could have done more to teach people to wager or even worked something out to promote Night School.

Having gone straight to AC afterwards gave me an interesting perspective with regard to drawing in the neophytes who had attended that day. The problem with drawing in new fans is that we live in a society today where people want instant gratification and don't want to put much effort into it. Horse racing is a game that takes time to learn and requires time and effort to succeed. In AC I watched people gambling staggering amounts on games where they put almost no effort and either won or lost very quickly. But many people love puzzles and there are no greater puzzles on a daily basis than those in the DRF.

Maybe horse racing should take a cue and try to get into the casino crowd. It would take some thought as to how to actually structure some new wagers and the pools, but the industry could try to make some wagers similar to those that are offered by casinos and consider lowering the takeouts to those similar to casinos. Why not try things such as triples or pick three's where you can get fixed odds on all odd or all even numbered horses or a straight to fill the slots or something like that? Over/under of the total of the numbers of the first 3 horses in the trifecta or pick three? Have a wager where certain odds are paid on the same number winning 3 races in a row like a slot machine?

I know there are different field sizes and scratches, but I am sure things can be innovative and the industry can try these things on big days to draw in people to an easy level which will ultimately get a percentage of them to want to learn more and learn how to play the wagers we have now.

Having said that, I had a terrific day with my father, brother, brother in law and some friends that everyone, not all horse players, thoroughly enjoyed. I also got to hang out a bit with some great handicapping DT posters and enjoyed every second of the day and found it much more enjoyable than AC. In fact, Sunday morning I could not wait to pass on playing on the tables and start hightailing myself back to NYC to play Hollywood.

Educating new fans and current bettors is all well and good -- but they're going to need a whole lot of disposable time and income and they're going to struggle against that rake.

It's a noble but wasted effort.

You have to detach the "suckers game" label that cripples the sport so badly.

Younger people will educate themselves. Poker is absolutely dominated by young people. Many of the best players in the world are only in their 20's.

I believe horse racing could certainly become a lot bigger deal than sports like the NFL, MLB, and NBA if you see a combination of betting exchanges, in-race betting, and low exotic takeout rates in play.

A show like SportsCenter would ultimately feature at least as much horse racing coverage as it would for any other sport.

It wouldn't be a big deal for serious people who know nothing about horse racing right now to eventually be betting $20,000 - $40,000 -- $50,000 on a race. More horses would be bred, tracks that really ought to be closed would thrive. The whole industry would be a ton better off.

Anyone who thinks that's unrealistic is clueless as far as I'm concerned.

If you don't address the suckers game label -- you're just staying in the same old position you're in right now.

You need 7-day a week fans that will carry the water and bet at least hundreds of dollars on several races each day -- these type of people don't care about horse racing right now.

What is the percentage of the favorite hitting the board?

Take Preakness day for an example, which is what the newbie fan will be watching:
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...12USA-EQB.html

Teaching the newbie fan how to make money with these favorites vs. just throwing out 3 or 4 horses is much more valuable, which was my point.

I totally agree that the 3 to 4 horse thing isn't really helping a newbie. But do we really want to teach people to identify the favorite every race and try and make money with it?

I don't have the right answer, and I'm not necessarily saying you are wrong. Of course everyone isn't going to "understand" everything about handicapping. But, as we all eventually did, we got introduced and found a method we use. I just wonder if oversimplifying things would become counterproductive.

What are your ideas for in race betting? How would this work?

It's something fairly new in Europe that would be much better suited for dirt racing where pace is more important and running style tactics can be harder to predict.

Here's an example of the odds moving in-running on an eventual winner. The odds are in the right hand corner. The Eventual winner goes from as low as 3-1 odds at one point in the race to as high as 23-1 odds on the far turn.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkrbE...feature=relmfu


Here's an example of what the betting screen looks like during the race with the prices moving.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVQc2YVgXwc

Exposure or lack of is also a big problem facing the game. How many newbies who were at Belmont on Saturday, would know how to access (not even talk about betting yet) races just to watch? After a while of watching, you would hope that some of these people would start wanting to bet some races. Obviously educating these fans and teaching them how to cap is an issue that some what goes hand in hand with this. But, this is an area that I thought NYRA did a poor job this weekend. They should have had kiosks promoting NYRA Awards accounts. Explain to people that don't know, that you can watch and wager at home. Give people 20% (random number) towards their account for every dollar they deposit. At least throw the net out and try to gain some more interest in the sport. Like I said, I really thought that they dropped the ball in this aspect.

Doug brings up poker, it's programmed and advertised on consistent basis. The more I think about it, he could be on to something with the exchange wagering idea. Poker players could go hours without playing a hand, so that needing the constant action/thrill isn't really an issue. I almost look at it like the way people day trade. I'm still not 100% how it works, but from what I know it's really a very interesting concept.

The NYRA format is already far and away closest to the step that will educate the newbie given the wealth of information that is given and why one should or should select a particular horse. That said, rather than having Maggie tell you the 6 has dapples, why not have her sit in front of a computer and show how one would bet the horses given the information that Andy and Eric provided?

Every time I read one of these posts I am forced to reflect on my own gambling. In a casino I will only play craps and will only play correctly since anything else is a suckers game. Then I gamble on horses...

Me too - throw in sit down poker also (not Carribbean Stud or Three Card). If you are going to play a "negative expectation" game, craps is the best one by far.

Always play double odds and get that vig down to 0.6%. Bypass the hardways and play either place or come bets (again with double odds). It won't take too much of a streak to come out positive against the low vig.

I am a three come better after the point table min+max odds. While very rarely hitting home runs I do pretty well over time.

Investigate starting with a Don't Pass and 2 Don't Comes , no odds on either and when the shooter hits a point start betting pass and and your come bet with odds. You will be a winner on Cold tables until it turns in your favor. You will be a loser if things fall in a specific order. Research it.

I think Maggie's area of expertise in in how horses look physically, so she is supposed to be telling us who has dapples and whatnot. But, I agree (and think it's a great idea) that it would be beneficial to have someone showing people how to go about betting the horse or horses they like.

Mathematically I cannot argue a bit.
I am so against seeing any money on that line though and tend to start yelling at the don't bettors about how badly they are about to get beat. And I never drink while or before playing dice.

I hate it when people get pissed that I'm playing the "don't" side! I just smile and rake my chips in while the dealer is taking theirs.

I try and make it fun for everyone. It is usually easy since I tend to be the sober one at the table.

My question is are the newbies listening to Andy and the gang? If they are do they understand it? I listen and have learned a great deal about handicapping but a lot of it deals with race dynamics, trips, and stats that are garnered from formulator etc......

I just tell them to just make a point and I'll be your friend.

Fair enough request.

The last time I played dice drunk I lost $1,100 in about 25 minutes and all with my girlfriend standing and watching.

She was getting pale near the end and kept saying "oh my god, I want to vomit"

I was annoyed, but laughing at her and just told her I'm glad I'm getting my share of my bad luck out of the way here tonight.

I'd won about eight or nine times in a row prior for sessions where I tried to make $100. The time eventually comes where you have to pay the piper and the edge in their favor plays itself out.

After getting beat for $1,100 you just have to give up on trying to force the winning session. The casino has more cash than you do.

You keep winning $100 everytime -- sometimes it's a battle, sometimes it's the quickest and easiest thing in the world -- and you're getting comps left and right. But all it takes is one crazy streak that you find the wrong side of ... and you get hurt.

It's a fun time up there at 2AM on a Monday.

You get 10X odds in the back -- so the takeout is much less than 0.5%.

I keep the wife by my side and she keeps every chip of a different color than I started with that comes my way. I have walked away a loser many times to learn I had $300 in her bag. My usual goal is to double the stake and leave.
You are getting 10x on all number or just 4 and 10? 10x on 5,6,8,9 seems like the casino would be putting the odds in your favor at least one or two players anyway.

Yeah -- At first tell him "I'm not bettting against you, I'm betting against the dice"

If that's not good enough and he shoots a loser - tell him "the way you shoot, I should just sneak a GPS on your car and follow you around and bet against you everytime"

Yes -- you can get 10X in the back on any number, including the 4 and 10, at fair odds.

In other words -- if you bet $5 on the pass and $50 in the back and the point is a 4. You'll make $5 up front (even money) and $100 in the back (2/1 odds)

If you bet $5 on the don't pass and the point is a 4. You can lay $100 to win $50 (1/2 odds) if they don't make the 4 and obviously you'll get even money on the front line bet.

When the table is cold I love to play the 4 and 10. With $5 don't pass and max odds and a small cover on the hard way means only on dice combo can beat me.