The Yellow Ribbon...right?

Isn't the Matriarch part of the Hollywood Turf Festival on Thanksgiving weekend?

I know this is kind of pointless b/c nothing starts until post position are drawn, but its fun anyway.

BCJF-
Point Ashley-easiest call of the day probably.

BCJ-
Circular Quay-undefeated, likes CD, will only want more ground

BCS-
Songster-Im not going all chalk

BCD-
Oonagh Maccool-see above statement, and besides, I think she is the best dirt female on the planet when right.

BCFMT-
Alexandrova-2nd easiest call of the day.

BCM-
Librettist-I cant find anything wrong with him.
can you?

BCT-
Deep Impact-if he runs, he wins. I honestly have no idea if its even a consideration for them. Im sure a lot of you can give me more info on this.
Hes the best middle distance horse on the turf I have seen this year, and its not even close.

If he does not run, then whatever Coolmore runs will win. English Channel is the best US based hope. He has already won a G1 at this track this year.

BCC-
Bernardini-total freak.
If Godolphin decides not to run him(for whatever reason), then I think David Junior stands an excellent chance here.


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Pent, I think I've read that Deep Impact's connections have zero interest in the Breeders Cup.

figured that was the case.
the Arc and then the Japan Cup?

seems to make the most sense.


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Yep that seems to be the plan. I really wish they'd reconsider though because I'd love to see him in the BC. Looking forward to a great Arc though with him squaring off versus Hurricane Run, Shirocco, et al

If they decide to run Ouija Board in the FmTurf, it is a racing certainty that she wins. Rather easily i might add.

yeah,
thats a race for the ages.

better than when Montjeu met Sinndar or any other running that I have seen.

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really?

are you European based?

Im curious,
is it that much of a consensus over there that she is the best femal middle distance horse?

I like Alexandrova better. much better.

Repent

Work takes me all over the world and i went to Ascot this year. Ouija Board is definitely fancied over there. She gets a ton of respect. Remember though, that was before Alexandrova dominated at York. Im sure there are probably many over there that agree with you at this point.

That was 2000 right?

yep,
it was 2000, which was Sinndar's awesome 3YO year where he was basically a head away from being unbeaten.
his only loss was by a head in a Epsom Derby prep race.
he went on to win the Epsom Derby, the Irish Derby, and the Arc. retired with 7 wins in 8 starts.

Montjeu won the Arc the previous year in 1999.

funny thing is, I think Sinndar still lost out on year end honors b/c that was the same year Giants Causeway had an awesome 3YO campaign.


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I just learned that they are definately going to run Gorella next in a mile race at Keeneland, so there you go....it appears the decision has been basically made....they are definately thinking BC Mile first, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see them pre-enter both races...I think they are counting on Lady of Venice running in the F&M turf, but if Wait a While crushes her again at Keeneland in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, then would they still want to run her in the Breeders' Cup?...I wouldn't see why....

Yeah, Gorella is running in the Galaxy at Keeneland.

And while yer disclosing this information perhaps you should peruse some earlier posts....Wait a While is running in the Yellow Ribbon in California. It will give her five weeks to the BC as opposed to three if she runs in the QE II at Keeneland.

also, keep in mind that historically, the fave in the distaff wins that race most often.

and ouija already beat alexandrova, didn't she?

Actually, I knew that...mistakenly recalled when they originally said QE II...I quit keeping up with horses that don't have a shot at winning Breeders' Cup races and I forgot they opted for California with her...she'll be a no-factor in the F&M Turf....so will Lady of Venice...that is why I think Gorella should run there...she is the only American hope of defeating Ouija Board and Alexandrova...

Like usual on real turf courses (which Churchill Downs has), I don't like America's chances of winning any BC races on the grass if the expected Euros come....Gorella has the best shot in the F&M Turf, but they'll probably elect to hook boys that are faster than her....

nope.....never faced each other....

Gorella is actually a Euro.

The only reason I'm sorry she's not running in the F&M Turf, Joel, is so that I can see you eat crow:-)

But, since Patrick is a friend, I am much happier to see her running in the race she has the best chance to win.

She CANNOT win the Mile...cannot...last year's field was a joke...I even bet Artie Schiller in there and we know what he really is...last year's Mile was horrendous....her only chance at winning will be in the F&M Turf - or she won't win at all....

I happen to like Biancone too...nice guy and I spent some time at Rick's Cabernet with him when he was in New Orleans a couple of years ago :) , and I like Gorella - but this year's Mile cannot be won if George Washington and Librettist show up, and thats not even mentioning Aragorn (who I don't care for in that spot)...

You might need to be prepared to eat creaux (Cajun verbage) when she runs off the board in the Mile....:)

A wise trainer once told me that girls run against girls for a reason and very few fillies can beat boys consistently....not a more statistically factual statement in racing....this very trainer has won the Kentucky Oaks before and is widely regarded as one of the best trainers in our game... ;)

I never said she was going to hit the board.I just said IMO she has a better chance to win the mile than the other race.

I am very curious to see how this weekend's race at Ascot plays out. Obviously George Washington was tremendous in the English Guinees ( however the hell you spell it ) but his subsequent injury and performances ( albeit he hasn't had the best of trips ) have left something to be desired. If he runs a big one this weekend I too think he will be very tough in the BC Mile but we'll have to wait and see. I am unfamiliar with Librettist and will have to go to Racing Post and find out more about him. However, it is not considered a strong year for Euro milers at this point. Aragorn does seem very talented and at this point I can't say Gorella is a better horse. However, I don't think this year's race has to be as tough as you are indicating and a healthy Artie Schiller is a better horse than you give him credit for. He hasn't been right all year and I would hope you are not basing your opinion on him from his 2006 form. Plus, he got a perfect trip in the BC Mile last year.

Regardless, I doubt she will be effective at 1 3/8 and I don't see how she can be expected to beat Ouiji Board there anyway. That one has been successfully knocking heads this year against some of the best horses in the world. Her form was suspect last year having just come back from an injury and one effort against absolute nobodies.

I see you slipped this foolishness in late. Don't tell Miesque or any of the " girls ", you know like All Along ( trained by Biancone ), this silliness especially when it comes to grass racing. Frankly, the Europeans do it with success all the time.

We'll see...once in a blue moon do fillies CONSISTENTLY defeat males....How many Arc winners have been female versus males?....Ahhh, not many - just like there have been a few female Derby winners but they are by far in the minority....Miesque was SPECIAL...Hell, maybe even a filly like Divine Proportions was special last year and may have been able to win the Mile had she not gotten hurt....Gorella is not that kind of mare...shes not...

Exciting and easy to cheer for, yes...but a Miesque she is not....

I can also name a claimer that won the Derby...it happens every now and again - but so does a solar eclipse....

Consistently? We're talking about one race here...one that fillies have had more than their fair share of success in. And the Derby? Well, considering we had two fillies win it in the 80s, and very few try it since, I don't think it is a good example for you. Obviously most don't match up, but those that do, more than hold their own.

Nobody is saying that fillies are better than colts on average...who would? But using the filly/mare argument as to why Gorella shouldn't run in the BC Mile ( a race she arguably could have won last year with a fair trip ) is poor at best.

Methinks you're starting to grasp at straws.

I'm just arguing that based on my analysis she is better suited to win the F&M Turf...you are arguing the opposite....Obviously, one of the big factors for me is that she would be running against her own kind - which I value because I understand the difference....

Last year's Mile was horrible....you may have a different opinion and you are entitled to it, but I thought it before and after the race and I was unimpressed with Gorella's race....sorry, not impressed.....I am an Artie fan because I own a couple fo El Prado mares and he is likeable, but he is what he is and has lost more bad races in the last two years to make it evident that he is far from a classic....

Not reaching for straws here because I think we are both wasting each others time here....to be honest with you, if she preps in the Galaxy - I don't think she'll win either race - so we need to move on and discuss another horse..

Lets talk about why you think Commentator will win the BC Sprint after watching him throw up the other day....I think Henny Hughes is twice the horse....

No problem disagreeing about which race she is better suited for, you have made your points and I've made mine, so stop adding unnecessary foolishness that only detracts from your opinion. We can agree to disagree about which race she is better suited for and I do not necessarily disagree that she will be up against it in this year's mile. Are you sure, however, that you want to stand by the opinion that she will lose the Galaxy? Come on.

As for Commentator, THAT is a rooting " opinion ". I love Commentator and Nick is a very good friend so I am simply going with my heart. I do feel on his good days that he is as good a horse as there is in the world but I also recognize that he has had more than his share of injuries and they may have taken their toll. I also realize that his performance in the Forego was a very possible indicator that he cannot rate but being that he stumbled very badly at the start of that race I think it's wise to give him one more chance before discarding him. He is an absolute monster on his good day...and he's had more than a few of them.

As for Henny Hughes...he's a very good horse and only a fool would deny that. I also think he certainly is one of the major contendors for the BC Sprint at this point. However, winning against a four horse field and then beating a mediocre field in the King's Bishop, where his chief competitor ( Mach Ride ) stumbled horrifically at the break and then was completely shut off at the top of the stretch when attempting to rerally, does not legitimize Henny Hughes just yet to me. I am eager to see the Vosburgh, I have no idea what Commentator's status is, as Nick has been in KY and my only contact with him was to briefly congratulate him on winning the Brooklyn, but I look forward to Henny's race there regardless. No doubt he's a good horse, but, I still need to see more.

see.
I dont even think of the Preakness when thinking Bernardini.

its Saratoga.

He was never asked at all in winning 2 of the most historically significant 3YO races on dirt.

this horse is a total freak.
he is what I think Mineshaft would have been if allowed to run on dirt as a 3 YO.
only difference is that this horse really has more natural speed than Mineshaft did.

there are no holes in his game.
any pace scenario is fine b/c he will just adapt.
hes smarter and faster than his peers.
at least the ones he has run against so far.

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I agree that females are usually up against it when facing males, but the Arc is a bad example to use.
its a race, b/c of its location on the racing calender that allows females to be very competitive.
I dont know the exact numbers,
but females have won the Arc over the past 3 decades or so at a fairly high rate.
here is a go-
Urban Sea(dam of Galileo)
Detroit(love the name)
Allez France
Three Troikas
San San
Gold River(beat April Run in that running of the Arc)
Akiyda(AK horse)
All Along

Im sure there are more and plenty more that have run well.

now,
that obviously does not mean they have been dominant or even on equal terms with the males, but
it does show that they can win at Longchamp.
certainly the top Euro femal middle distance runners are more competitive than their American counterparts have been in race like the BCC or JCGC.


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Cunningham already answered this,
but I just would like to add that Alexandrova got her first test againt older females in the Yorkshire Oaks(race for 3 and 4YOs).
she won easily and completed the Oaks triple by winning the Epsom, Irish, and Yorkshire Oaks races.
awesome late close and I really think she is better right now than The Board.
besides,
I just do not see how OB can be at her best on Nov 4 after clashing with horses like Shirrocco, Electrocutionist, and Dylan Thomas all year.
thats a tough campaign for any horse, especially a mare.

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yeah, but Islington did just fine after a similar campaign in 2003.

I do agree though that alexandrova is a heck of a filly. Probably the best ive seen at this stage in some time.

My heart and money will be with Ouija Board though. The lady is nothing but class.

yeah, I get your point,
but I would not compare Islington's 2003 campaign to what OB has faced this year.
she ran in the POW, Eclipse, Yorkshire Oaks, and Irish Champions before coming to the BC.
remember, a back problem kept her out of the King George that year and gave her a bit of a break.

OB has been in Hong Kong(2x since last year's BC), the Coronation(shirocco race), POW, Nassau, and the Irish Champions this year.
plus, she is going to run again before the BC.

you might be right, I just think its going to be tough for her to do as a 5YO what Islington did as a 4YO considering the difficulty of her 2006 campaign.
If she does, she is the definition of a supermare.

Alexandrova is in really good form right now and might be a little sharper for the BCFMT.
at least that is what I am counting on.


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Juv Fillies: Point Ashley-huge filly i think physically puts the others away

Juv: Horse Greeley

Mile: Gorella-if she finds a opening in time and doesnt get blocked behind a wall of horses

FM Turf: Ouija Board- if she can beat the boys back home she beats our girls i think here-but wait a while looks nice also

Sprint: Henny Hughes- faster then a bullet and has done nothing wrong,destroyed his opp- war front as my backup

Distaff: Pine Island-coming into her own at just the right time as long as she gets the pace-otherwise happy ticket, now heres a fighter

Turf:Hurricane Run as long as shirocco is pointed to the classic.

Classic: Bernardini-makes it look effortless, but will have to tested by older first, ask me after the jcgc.. from the heart and who i hope would win would be the drift but....as they said in Let It Ride =YOU NEVER KNOW- and a great story would be lava man but outside of cali i think he gets beat- horse that im very intrested in is shirocco-what if he runs on the dirt like he does the turf, that could be scary

U said u are waiting to see how the Queen Elizabeth plays out. Let me tell u that this race is a very good barometer for the BC Mile........for a different reason. The winners of this race have failed miserably in the BC Mile since the start of the BC series. Here are the QE winners and how they have fared in the Mile:

1985-Shadeed..4th @ 5/1(moved to 3rd via DQ)
1987-Milligram....13th @ 7/1
1988-Warning.....11th @ 9/5
1989-Zilzal.........6th @ 1/1
1990-Markofdistinction......7th @ 7/1
1993-Bigstone.......6th @ 12/1
1996-Mark of Esteem....7th @ 6/5 (part of an entry)
1998-Desert Prince.....14th @ 3/1

Interestingly, this race is similar to the Arc in that while no winners of either of these two races have gone on to win a BC race, quite a few of the losers have come over to win or run very well here. Among the QE losers to rebound and win the Mile are Miesque (1987), Barathea (1994), and Ridgewood Pearl (1995).

I have noticed another trend lately. Because of the makeup of Ascot's course, a mile there is not a typical mile. Whereas in most miles, speed is key, at Ascot, stamina is more coveted. Look at some of the prominent QE finishers over the past six seasons:

Dubai Millennium-1st 1999
Giant's Causeway-2nd 2000
Hawk Wing-2nd 2002
Falbrav-1st 2003
Rakti-1st 2004
Starcraft-1st 2005

All of those horses named were adept at running 8f but were seemingly better, at least in my opinion, at distances closer to 10f.

If I were looking for an angle to use from this race, it would be to bring the winner over here to run in the Classic and an also-ran to run and do pretty well in the Mile.

I never said she'll ose the Galaxy...it'll be a matter of how far in that race..I said that if she preps in the Galaxy - which she is - then I do not like her chances in either the MILE or the F&M TURF..my reasoning is that knwoing CD's turf course well and seeing patterns of how KEE horses run on it after they run at KEE - I don't like the fact she'll be prepping over that surface at that distance if she wants to run 1 3/8 miles in the F&M Turf.....and I don't like her in the Mile anyways, so it really doesn't matter where she preps to me...the decision to run in the Galaxy only affected my decision that I no longer like her as much for her preparartion if she were to run in the F&M Turf....I would have liked to see her win the Flower Bowl going into the F&M Trf...thats what I would have done with her and you always have to think that way as a handicapper - at least i have had succes doing so...

But I NEVER Said tha she woud lose the Galaxy...she'll be 1-2 in the wagering there....

As for your Commentator remarks...good stuff...I agree with most of it..he is a good horse and great when on his game, but I am afraid that he is a horse that has to have things his own way to a large degree, which isn't a successful formula for winning a race like the BC Sprint when he will indeed be pushed hard and will have o rate at some point in the race....I think seven furlongs is his best game, and if he remains sound to next year's Met Mile then I think he would be really tough in a race like that....

I actually bet him in his last race and I rarely take chalk...so it goes to show you that I thought he was the goods too, but I was obviously wrong...

As for the 'silly foolishness' or whatever comments...not sure what thats all about.....these are opinions, not digs...

I agree with this logic...nice post...;)

I just thought up a trifecta that I like for the Classic depending on how the horses do in their next starts...

Bernardini, Sun King and Shirocco (if he runs here). I don't know the order yet and I will probably change it 50 times before the race, but I am feeling these three horses as of right now. I also don't know who is exactly running in the race either. If they throw Discreet Cat in here, I may have to change my decision around a little bit...

Good stuff...

If I were forecasting a TRI, I would key Bernardini and try to beat a hard-campaigned Invasor, who will be hard to kepp of the board IMO if right, in the second spot with a real sleeper at a price that could get a good trip and love Churchill Downs....the first horse that comes to mind right now is Bright One if he were to run well in the Indiana Derby and show that 1 1/4 miles won't be an issue for him...he'd be 25-1 or more in the Classic...Good Reward could also close in for a piece at a price stretching back to around two-turns at 1 1/4 miles...I knew he'd run bad in the one-turn Brooklyn...Sweetnorthersaint has the ability to be my EXACTA hotrse but who knows where hes at right now in his training...Discreet Cat completes the exacta and may even challenge for the win with his best effort if he goes - but he won't...

Don't like Lava Man (pace, fade), or Sun King, or Flower Alley, or Premium Tap, or Jazil or really any of the Euros...jus don't see any prospects that asre either SUPER classy over there or have a maintrack pedgiree like Giant's Causeway did....If any have a shot it would be David Junior just because he is a Pleasant Tap but ALL of his Appleton family on the bottomside is grass..

Lawyer Ron wold be interesting to hit the board IF he steps forward and wins the Super Derby nicely...mostly the interest here is that he trains at CD and that is his home....I guess Buzzard's Bay is just done...Magnum is okay when he was a closer and sucked when they took him out of his gama and started putting him up on the pace....Cindago isn't ready yet....everything else out on the west coast is not much...

Hell, who have I left out?

Uhhhhh.... THE WINNER!!!:D

Anyone know what Joint Effort has been up to?

I doubt she makes the Distaff, but that's a CD specialist if I ever saw one...