Derby Trail Forums
Page 3 of 3 < 12 3
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   6/11 (BEL): Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=42419)

RolloTomasi 05-30-2011 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 780163)
All the more reason to run in the Belmont. The idea of "let's sit our horse on the sidelines because he doesn't have enough seasoning in graded stakes races" is like saying "I don't want to learn to play the guitar because I don't currently know how to play all my favorite songs." Its circular logic.
That is a ridiculous comparison. Why would someone use a mile-and-one-half classic race to develop a horse?

It would be more like: "I'm learning to play the guitar and I'll be filling in for Eddie Van Halen during Van Halen's summer tour to get some experience."

Quote:
Also, is his "seasoning" really that far behind Animal Kingdom's....the likely favorite? Haven't they both made the same number of lifetime starts?
Animal Kingdom not only ran early during his 2yo year (Alternation broke his maiden in December), but he also has run in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. He has a decided edge on Alternation in terms of experience, regardless of total number of starts.

miraja2 05-30-2011 06:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 780260)
That is a ridiculous comparison. Why would someone use a mile-and-one-half classic race to develop a horse?

It would be more like: "I'm learning to play the guitar and I'll be filling in for Eddie Van Halen during Van Halen's summer tour to get some experience."

Animal Kingdom not only ran early during his 2yo year (Alternation broke his maiden in December), but he also has run in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. He has a decided edge on Alternation in terms of experience, regardless of total number of starts.
So now....not only does a horse have to have run in the Kentucky Derby for it to make sense to enter the horse in the Belmont, but it also needs to have run "early during his 2yo year." :zz:
Your argument makes less sense to me the more you make it.
The horse just won a G2 race and defeated another decent Graded stakes winner in the process. You act like a horse needs to run in a certain number of races or a certain number of graded stakes races to have a shot in a big G1 race. That's just absolutely not the case in the game today.

The connections have apparently made their decision for whatever reason. It seems odd to me, but oh well. Perhaps they agree with you that it would be foolish to enter a horse in a big G1 race in June of his 3yo year because he didn't break his maiden until December of his 2yo year. If so, I think that's a pretty crappy reason.

RolloTomasi 05-30-2011 09:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 780322)
So now....not only does a horse have to have run in the Kentucky Derby for it to make sense to enter the horse in the Belmont, but it also needs to have run "early during his 2yo year." :zz:
No. You just keep setting up straw men to knock down. You said Alternation wasn't spotting Animal Kingdom any seasoning because they had an equal number of starts. I simply countered that the latter started his racing career months before Alternation.

I certainly didn't claim some sort of magical calendar date after which a horse became ineligible to win the Belmont Stakes.

Quote:
Your argument makes less sense to me the more you make it.
That's because you're trying to make hard and fast rules based on specifics I note about Alternation's career. The point was that Alternation is slightly behind the current top 3yos, so bypassing the Belmont is hardly a shocking development.

Quote:
The horse just won a G2 race and defeated another decent Graded stakes winner in the process. You act like a horse needs to run in a certain number of races or a certain number of graded stakes races to have a shot in a big G1 race. That's just absolutely not the case in the game today.
Well, you yourself said that Alternation was unlikely to win the Belmont Stakes. What are some of the reasons that formed that opinion?

Quote:
The connections have apparently made their decision for whatever reason. It seems odd to me, but oh well. Perhaps they agree with you that it would be foolish to enter a horse in a big G1 race in June of his 3yo year because he didn't break his maiden until December of his 2yo year. If so, I think that's a pretty crappy reason.
If it seems odd its because this is nothing but more straw man arguments.

Maybe the Wizard of Oz or Elton John can help you out. Just follow the yellow brick road.

Travis Stone 05-30-2011 09:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 780363)
The point was that Alternation is slightly behind the current top 3yos, so bypassing the Belmont is hardly a shocking development.
It's a moot point because he is, but I do find it borderline shocking when a horse wins the Peter Pan and is not going to the Belmont in a year where all horses are lightly raced and relatively even on ability.

I would even say, barring injury, 9.5 times out of ten with any random horse/trainer/owner, the horse is in the gate in two Saturdays.

RolloTomasi 05-30-2011 10:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 780376)
It's a moot point because he is, but I do find it borderline shocking when a horse wins the Peter Pan and is not going to the Belmont in a year where all horses are lightly raced and relatively even on ability.

I would even say, barring injury, 9.5 times out of ten with any random horse/trainer/owner, the horse is in the gate in two Saturdays.
It happens fairly often, actually. 8 of the past 23 Peter Pan winners have skipped the Belmont: Sightseeing, Oratory, Hero's Tribute, Banker's Gold, Twining, Seeking The Gold, Profit Key, and Go Rockin Robin.

9 if you count late scratch Casino Drive.

Travis Stone 05-30-2011 10:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 780383)
It happens fairly often, actually. 8 of the past 23 Peter Pan winners have skipped the Belmont: Sightseeing, Oratory, Hero's Tribute, Banker's Gold, Twining, Seeking The Gold, Profit Key, and Go Rockin Robin.

9 if you count late scratch Casino Drive.
:wf

NTamm1215 05-30-2011 10:47 PM
Is Alternation any more unprepared for a race like the Belmont than Animal Kingdom was for the Derby? I understand the argument but in the current game horses are not taken along through their development incrementally, that's led to the deterioration of allowance races at many of the major circuits in the country.

Would Alternation go into the Belmont giving some of his rivals a seasoning edge? Sure, but that, to me, is not enough of a reason to skip the race.

The Dwyer 1-2 finishers were 2nd and 1st in the Belmont last year and that was a Belmont that featured 0 horses who had run in all 3 legs of the TC. This year two of the main candidates will be making their 3rd start in 5 weeks. There's something to be said for having a fresh horse in that type of situation.

Its just tough for me to swallow connections opting against a classic race where they probably would have been the 4th choice.

RolloTomasi 05-30-2011 11:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 780399)
Is Alternation any more unprepared for a race like the Belmont than Animal Kingdom was for the Derby? I understand the argument but in the current game horses are not taken along through their development incrementally, that's led to the deterioration of allowance races at many of the major circuits in the country.
I think a big difference between the two horses is the 12f distance. Alternation is having to add 3 furlongs in a single jump, no mean feat.

Of course, you could counter that Drosselmeyer, like Alternation, a son of Distorted Humor, tackled the same obstacle successfully last year. But then again, neither the Kentucky Derby winner nor the Preakness winner ran in the Belmont last year.

With regards to progressive development, Alternation, contrary to what I've been saying, has gone through his available conditions (first and second level allowance wins). However, in my opinion, he's stalled at the stakes level, with a modest Arkansas Derby try and a less than emphatic win in the Peter Pan. He seems to have "upside" but at a slow incline.

Quote:
The Dwyer 1-2 finishers were 2nd and 1st in the Belmont last year and that was a Belmont that featured 0 horses who had run in all 3 legs of the TC. This year two of the main candidates will be making their 3rd start in 5 weeks. There's something to be said for having a fresh horse in that type of situation.
I see it the other way. I think it's an advantage to have started in the other classics. Certainly "fresh" horses can win once in a while, but if you look at the names (ie D'Tara, Sarava) you're more apt to write those years off.

Despite their flaws, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford both ran well in the Derby and Preakness, and each had a strong prep race prior to the Triple Crown. Though its a weak crop, I don't think the Belmont Stakes is the free-for-all that some are anticipating. Animal Kingdom and Shackleford might be separating themselves from the rest (Nehro a possible add-on) at this point.

Quote:
Its just tough for me to swallow connections opting against a classic race where they probably would have been the 4th choice.
In the face of more dramatic hold-outs like Bernardini, Street Sense, Lookin At Lucky, Red Bullet, and Fusaichi Pegasus, I don't think this one is that big a deal.

miraja2 05-31-2011 06:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 780363)
No. You just keep setting up straw men to knock down. You said Alternation wasn't spotting Animal Kingdom any seasoning because they had an equal number of starts.
You accuse me of setting up straw men...and then you wildly misstate what I said. Go back and read my post again on the topic of Animal Kingdom and Alternation's seasoning. I certainly didn't say that Alternation "wasn't spotting Animal Kingdom any seasoning."
But I assume you already knew that.

miraja2 05-31-2011 07:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 780401)
I think a big difference between the two horses is the 12f distance. Alternation is having to add 3 furlongs in a single jump, no mean feat.
True, but it isn't like he would be going from 9f to 12f to face off against a bunch of 12f specialists. So....while the race would be an increase of 3f over his previous longest, every other horse in the field will be facing at least a 2f increase off his previous longest.
So again, that seems like a lousy reason to skip the race.

And I'm not trying to say you are making hard and fast rules. I'm just saying that all of the reasons you have presented - even if taken together - don't add up to a hill of beans in my opinion:
He's never ran past 9f before.
He didn't break his maiden until December.
He doesn't have a lot of graded stakes experience.
He didn't run in the Kentucky Derby.
Most Peter Pan winners that run in the Belmont Stakes don't win.

None of those strike me as particularly compelling reason to skip the race.

NTamm1215 05-31-2011 07:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 780401)
I think a big difference between the two horses is the 12f distance. Alternation is having to add 3 furlongs in a single jump, no mean feat.

Of course, you could counter that Drosselmeyer, like Alternation, a son of Distorted Humor, tackled the same obstacle successfully last year. But then again, neither the Kentucky Derby winner nor the Preakness winner ran in the Belmont last year.

With regards to progressive development, Alternation, contrary to what I've been saying, has gone through his available conditions (first and second level allowance wins). However, in my opinion, he's stalled at the stakes level, with a modest Arkansas Derby try and a less than emphatic win in the Peter Pan. He seems to have "upside" but at a slow incline.



I see it the other way. I think it's an advantage to have started in the other classics. Certainly "fresh" horses can win once in a while, but if you look at the names (ie D'Tara, Sarava) you're more apt to write those years off.

Despite their flaws, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford both ran well in the Derby and Preakness, and each had a strong prep race prior to the Triple Crown. Though its a weak crop, I don't think the Belmont Stakes is the free-for-all that some are anticipating. Animal Kingdom and Shackleford might be separating themselves from the rest (Nehro a possible add-on) at this point.



In the face of more dramatic hold-outs like Bernardini, Street Sense, Lookin At Lucky, Red Bullet, and Fusaichi Pegasus, I don't think this one is that big a deal.
Alternation is no more or less qualified for the Belmont at this point in time than Fly Down was a year ago. His trainer went on At the Races last December and talked about how he thought he was a Classic type of horse. Now, perhaps he feels at this point that he's a bit behind or lacks the seasoning.

I understand the argument you're making and the fact that many more high profile horses have been held out of the Belmont. I think the difference was that they were all horses who were going to be well-backed whereas Alternation figured to be a viable mid-range type of longshot, sort of an "interesting" horse in the race.

As far as the distance question, they're all going to tackle an obstacle the likes of which haven't been seen thus far by a 3YO. Should a horse who is by a multiple classic producing sire out of a dam who won 3 times at 11 furlongs be considered likely to have trouble with 12 furlongs? I'd think not.

RolloTomasi 05-31-2011 05:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 780414)
You accuse me of setting up straw men...and then you wildly misstate what I said. Go back and read my post again on the topic of Animal Kingdom and Alternation's seasoning. I certainly didn't say that Alternation "wasn't spotting Animal Kingdom any seasoning."
But I assume you already knew that.
Wow, you're clutching at straws here with this post.

I presume to set up more straw men.

RolloTomasi 05-31-2011 05:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 780423)
I understand the argument you're making and the fact that many more high profile horses have been held out of the Belmont. I think the difference was that they were all horses who were going to be well-backed whereas Alternation figured to be a viable mid-range type of longshot, sort of an "interesting" horse in the race.
As far as this goes, you could also say he's a "borderline" horse, which to me means he fits in all those lesser races (Ohio Derby, Pegasus, Dwyer) surrounding the Belmont Stakes just as easily as the main event. Thus the indifference to his absence.

He's interesting, but basically only for those taking a shot in the dark, hoping he's progressed in an unquantifiable/unobserved fashion beyond his paper form. Had he earned a triple digit Beyer in the Peter Pan, or won the race by open lengths, I'd probably sing a different tune.

miraja2 05-31-2011 10:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 780579)
Wow, you're clutching at straws here with this post.

I presume to set up more straw men.
:zz:

TouchOfGrey 06-01-2011 01:38 PM
Dominguez gets mount on Mucho Macho Man

blackthroatedwind 06-01-2011 04:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TouchOfGrey (Post 780698)
I thought he needed another blacksmith.

alysheba4 06-01-2011 05:43 PM
he is going "zola budd "

dpkovalesky 06-02-2011 04:42 PM
any word on undercard starter probables?

tjfla 06-03-2011 12:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dpkovalesky (Post 781073)
any word on undercard starter probables?
Only ones I have heard are

Woody Stephens
JJ's Lucky Train
Coil
Little Drama
Razmataz
Vengeful Wildcat
Justin Phillip

True North
Trappe Shot
Calibrachoa/Rabbit-Have You Ever
Ventana
Smiling Tiger
Irrefutable

Manhattan
Gio Ponti
Al Khali
Get Stormy
Court Vision
Viscount Nelson

NTamm1215 06-04-2011 09:42 AM
It was nothing more than a formality but Shackleford is a go after his workout this morning.

http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-stak...turday-workout

King Glorious 06-04-2011 12:43 PM
My first prediction is that Shackleford loses by over 30 lengths here.

blackthroatedwind 06-04-2011 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious (Post 781561)
My first prediction is that Shackleford loses by over 30 lengths here.
With all due respect.....who cares?

King Glorious 06-04-2011 01:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 781568)
With all due respect.....who cares?
I'm sure nobody. I only post so that I can read my own opinions years later. Sorry.

Danzig 06-04-2011 01:42 PM
30 lengths back of whom? i dont see that happening.

NTamm1215 06-04-2011 01:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious (Post 781584)
I'm sure nobody. I only post so that I can read my own opinions years later. Sorry.
This clears up years of questions about things you've posted. Thanks.

King Glorious 06-04-2011 01:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 781593)
30 lengths back of whom? i dont see that happening.
Of the winner. It's not that I think he's that bad. I don't. I actually like the horse and have a lot of respect for his courage and his heart. I just think that maybe they are going to the well one too many times with him. He's run a few very hard races in a row in a relatively short time for today's horses. Maybe it's not the same situation but I'm thinking about Winning Colors. I see a situation where he's out there running on the pace again and he's just a tired horse and has nothing left and drops out and when you drop out in this race, there's a long way to go and a lot of lengths to be lost.

King Glorious 06-04-2011 01:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 781595)
This clears up years of questions about things you've posted. Thanks.
Glad I can help.

Dunbar 06-04-2011 02:55 PM
Odds at TheGreek:

1001 Animal Kingdom +365
1002 Brilliant Speed +1015
1003 Master of Hounds +825
1004 Monzon +3050
1005 Mucho Macho Man +1015
1006 Nehro +365
1007 Isnt He Perfect (no odds)
1008 Ruler On Ice +2250
1009 Santiva +1015
1010 Shackleford +805
1011 Stay Thirsty +2050


--Dunbar

blackthroatedwind 06-04-2011 06:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 781643)
Odds at TheGreek:

1001 Animal Kingdom +365
1002 Brilliant Speed +1015
1003 Master of Hounds +825
1004 Monzon +3050
1005 Mucho Macho Man +1015
1006 Nehro +365
1007 Isnt He Perfect (no odds)
1008 Ruler On Ice +2250
1009 Santiva +1015
1010 Shackleford +805
1011 Stay Thirsty +2050


--Dunbar
Master of Hounds and Santiva are similar prices to Shackleford?

RolloTomasi 06-04-2011 10:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious (Post 781599)
Of the winner. It's not that I think he's that bad. I don't. I actually like the horse and have a lot of respect for his courage and his heart. I just think that maybe they are going to the well one too many times with him. He's run a few very hard races in a row in a relatively short time for today's horses. Maybe it's not the same situation but I'm thinking about Winning Colors. I see a situation where he's out there running on the pace again and he's just a tired horse and has nothing left and drops out and when you drop out in this race, there's a long way to go and a lot of lengths to be lost.
Winning Colors, after that brutal duel with Forty Niner in the Preakness, went the opening half in the Belmont in :47 2/5 while being hounded by Risen Star.

Only by Dale Romans's warped sense of how lone speed should be utilized in a pace-deficient field will Shackleford be asked to go that fast early in this year's Belmont.

Of course, he won't have Risen Star hounding him, either, in which case he may enjoy a Bold Forbes-like trip if he's let loose early.

King Glorious 06-04-2011 10:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 781824)
Winning Colors, after that brutal duel with Forty Niner in the Preakness, went the opening half in the Belmont in :47 2/5 while being hounded by Risen Star.

Only by Dale Romans's warped sense of how lone speed should be utilized in a pace-deficient field will Shackleford be asked to go that fast early in this year's Belmont.

Of course, he won't have Risen Star hounding him, either, in which case he may enjoy a Bold Forbes-like trip if he's let loose early.
You could be right.

Kasept 06-05-2011 05:30 AM
Belmont Stakes probable starters:

Animal Kingdom Graham Motion 2nd - Preakness (J. Velazquez)
Brilliant Speed Tom Albertrani 7th - Ky. Derby (J. Rosario)
Isn’t He Perfect Doodnauth Shivmangal 9th - Preakness
Master of Hounds Aidan O'Brien 5th - Ky. Derby (G. Gomez)
Monzon Ignacio Correas IV 6th - Peter Pan
Mucho Macho Man Kathy Ritvo 6th - Preakness (R. Dominguez)
Nehro Steve Asmussen 2nd - Ky. Derby
Prime Cut Neil Howard - Peter Pan (E. Prado)
Ruler On Ice Kelly Breen 2nd - Federico Tesio
Santiva Eddie Kenneally 6th - Ky. Derby
Shackleford Dale Romans 1st - Preakness (J. Castanon)
Stay Thirsty Todd Pletcher 12th - Ky. Derby

Possibles:

Harlan’s Hello Doodnauth Shivmangal 1st - Op. claiming

Kasept 06-05-2011 05:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 781857)
Belmont Stakes probable starters:

Prime Cut Neil Howard - Peter Pan (E. Prado)
Given a green light Saturday..

Travis Stone 06-05-2011 08:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 781738)
Master of Hounds and Santiva are similar prices to Shackleford?
Not that it means anything, but there are a lot of folks in my circle of racing friends who like these two. I think they'll be a bit over bet relative to their true chances come Saturday.

Danzig 06-05-2011 08:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious (Post 781599)
Of the winner. It's not that I think he's that bad. I don't. I actually like the horse and have a lot of respect for his courage and his heart. I just think that maybe they are going to the well one too many times with him. He's run a few very hard races in a row in a relatively short time for today's horses. Maybe it's not the same situation but I'm thinking about Winning Colors. I see a situation where he's out there running on the pace again and he's just a tired horse and has nothing left and drops out and when you drop out in this race, there's a long way to go and a lot of lengths to be lost.
i think shackleford has shown steady improvement all spring. i don't buy the bs about too many races either. the derby was 8 weeks after his last start. if he can't handle this current schedule, than i don't want anyone under an impression that this horse is a future stud star. i find that line of reasoning to be one of the biggest detriments to this sport.


and i'll bite....who's the winner?

Danzig 06-05-2011 08:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 781864)
Not that it means anything, but there are a lot of folks in my circle of racing friends who like these two. I think they'll be a bit over bet relative to their true chances come Saturday.
you'd have to think nehro is going to be on a lot of peoples tickets in the runner up spot.

Travis Stone 06-05-2011 09:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 781873)
you'd have to think nehro is going to be on a lot of peoples tickets in the runner up spot.
Absolutely... so I guess on pure mathematics, Master of Hounds and Santiva won't be "short" ... but I still think they'll have plenty of support.

Mike 06-05-2011 10:22 AM
Shackleford's getting very little respect according to those odds.

Not sure why so many continue to think Shack can't stretch out (did win the Preakness). Perhaps he is a developing into a very good front running router, just as Dialed In is supposedly developing into a late running closer.

9-2 by Watchmaker, with Nehro closer in odds to Animal Kingdom?

King Glorious 06-05-2011 06:14 PM
Danzig, I wasn't selling it so there's nothing to buy. I'm sure that I don't have to tell you that I'm not always right. Some on here would tell you I never am. I was only giving my opinion on how I think this goes. I agree with what you say about how this shouldn't be a tough schedule. Unfortunately, the way they train and race these days makes this kind of schedule tough. We'll see how it goes. As of right now, I'd lean to Nehro as my selection but I don't do so with much confidence. Good luck to you in your wagering.

Alan07 06-06-2011 06:35 PM
NBC Sports' Belmont Schedule


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:49 AM.
Page 3 of 3 < 12 3
Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.