I would hope he would be able to run quick late after running so slow early.

He just screams out underlay and with the whispers of his issues, I just don't see how he's a good choice to play in the race.

Are you going to actually bet him?

He ran quick all right. Real quick. Real easy. He looked like the same horse to me, just with different race circumstances.

I think I'd play him at 9/2. Exotics look totally random to me.

Right now, I'm leaning towards using just three horses: Pants on Fire, Master of Hounds, and Shackleford...based largely on odds vs post draws, but I have yet to really study past performances.

somer, if you get a chance post the dosage numbers.....thanks

Of all or specific horses?

all would be great.....thanks again.

If anyone is willing to excuse the Wood performance than it's safe to say that on paper Uncle Mo is the best in this field. I've looked this over several times and I can't find much beyond the other obvious favorites. For a price, I do like Santiva. Not impressed by his race times, but like this ones style and the fact he ran wide around the track in the Risen Star and finished second to Mucho Macho Man who I like as well. Animal Kingdom hasn't seen real dirt, but Motion should have this one ready. Dialed in obviously needs the trip, but could blow these away in deep stretch. So, for what it's worth, this is who I like 72 hours out.

1. 18 - Uncle Mo
2. 12 - Santiva
3. 8 - Dialed In
4. 13 - MMM
5. 16 - Animal Kingdom

OK, here we go:
Dialed In...9-8-13-0-0 3.62/0.87
Uncle Mo...1-2-5-0-0 2.20/0.50
Mucho Macho Man...5-1-5-1-0 2.43/0.83
Soldat...7-6-11-2-0 2.47/0.69
Nehro...12-8-12-0-0 4.33/1.00
Archarcharch...6-3-20-1-0 1.73/0.47
Midnight Interlude...6-5-15-0-0 2.47/0.65
Santiva...4-3-21-0-0 1.67/0.39
Shackleford...6-13-9-0-2 3.62/0.70
Stay Thirsty...4-6-16-0-0 2.25/0.84
Pants on Fire...6-6-12-0-0 3.00/0.75
Brilliant Speed...7-3-23-0-1 1.72/0.44
Master of Hounds...12-2-30-12-0 1.07/0.25
Decisive Moment...3-2-9-0-0 2.11/0.57
Animal Kingdom...2-0-6-0-0 1.67/0.50
Comma to the top...3-0-5-0-0 2.20/0.75
Twice the Appeal...6-1-7-0-1 2.11/0.64
Watch Me Go...8-1-5-1-1 2.58/0.88
Twinspired...2-1-9-2-0 1.15/0.21
Derby Kitten...3-2-7-2-0 1.55/0.43

1) Comma To The Top
2) Dialed In
3) Archarcharch
4) Midnight Interlude
5) Mucho Macho Man

So the only horse we can chuck on dosage is Nehro? That's a really precise system that dosage.

Horses in recent years have demonstrated the ability to win despite falling outside traditional guidelines regarding DI, of more interest to me is the remaining fact that no horse with fewer than 16 points in his/her DP has won since Middleground in 1950. This applies to 8 runners.

Wow, that seems to be a pretty powerful trend!

The only thing is if one goes back 10 more years to 1940 - the rule still holds except for Count Fleet in 1943 with a 0-2-1-1-0. And we all know what kind of stud he was......

Absolutely! I think its safe to say there are no Count Fleets in this field!

top 5
 

1/8/11/14/19

I am LONG-TIME buddy of Steve Byk, who knows just a little about horse racing except that I study a ton on the three Triple Crown races and bet them, with the help of Steve (Giacomo comes to mind), you folks, who actually know a LOT about horse racing, the DRF, etc.

Anyway, Wednesday morning I assigned positive values to the picks in this thread (Top 5 picks) and negative values in the "Toss" thread to try to get a feel for a consensus. This method worked great in 2007, the first year I did it, as the Derby Trailers' consensus was, in order, Street Sense, Curlin and Hard Spun, so it got the Trifecta. Not that the race didn't run to form, but still.

It worked ok in 2008 (Big Brown, no tri), not so much in 2009 (Mine That Bird) or 2010 (Super Saver) although Ice Box and Paddy ranked very highly in this exercise last year. This year's "DT consensus" order is:

Archarcharch
Dialed In (close to Arch)
Shackleford (big drop to Shackleford)
Uncle Mo (small drop to here, and very close from here to Animal Kingdom)
Soldat
Mucho Macho Man
Animal Kingdom
Nehro (as noted above, big drop from Animal Kingdom)
Midnight Interlude
Brilliant Speed (crap from here down)
Stay Thirsty
Pants on Fire
Twinspired
Santiva
Master of Hounds
Twice the Appeal
Decisive Moment
Comma to the Top
Watch me Go

Nobody had Derby Kitten, obviously.

Anyway, I'm hoping it's 2007 all over again and betting a tri box with 1-3-8-14. Had to throw 3 in because Borel busted my tri boxes the past two years. I really don't think he will finish in the money Saturday, but...

winner
 

Dialed in 1 . Mucho Macho Man 2.Shackleford 3.Animal Kingdom4. Soldat 5.

1.) Midnight Interlude
2.) Twinspired
3.) Dialed In
4.) Stay Thirsty
5.) Santiva

Good racing luck, guys.

1. Dialed In
2. Midnight Interlude
3. Mucho Macho Man
4. Nehro
5. Twice the Appeal

1. Soldat
2. Pants On Fire
3. Archarcharch
4. Mucho Macho Man
5. Stay Thirsty

1. Archarcharch
2. Dialed In
3. Shackleford
4. Soldat
5. Midnite Interlude

Archarcharch
Soldat
Animal Kingdom
Shackleford
Decisive Moment

DERBY -- FINAL RANKINGS

1. Shackleford
2. Soldat
3. Dialed In
4. Midnight Interlude
5. Mucho Macho Man
--------------------------
6. Animal Kingdom
7. Archarcharch
8. Pants On Fire
9. Twinspired
10. Brilliant Speed
--------------------------
11. Nehro
12. Master of Hounds
13. Stay Thirsty
14. Uncle Mo
15. Santiva
--------------------------
16. Twice the Appeal
17. Watch Me Go
18. Comma to the Top
19. Decisive Moment
20. Derby Kitten

Twice the Appeal
Stay Thirsty
Mucho Macho Man
Dialed In
Soldat

ETA - now that Uncly is officially scratched, I've replaced him in my selections. Hope that's ok.

Archarcharch - i take it as a small bow to my moniker,how could i not;)
Comma to the Top
Midnight Interlude
Nehro
Brilliant Speed

My Final Top 5:

Mucho Macho Man
Shakelford
Dialed In
Animal Kingdom
Stay Thirsty

Archarcharch
Stay Thirsty
Mucho Macho Man
Shackleford
Animal Kingdom

Dialed In
Shackleford
Mucho Macho Man
Animal Kingdom
Soldat

1. Archarcharch
2. Soldat
3. Midnight Interlude
4. Dialed In
5. Shackleford

Just curious why the loss of love for archarcharch?

Strictly the post, it seemed nobody, yourself included, has had a bad thing to say about him.

Archarcharch
Dialed In
Shackleford
Twice the Appeal
Soldat

Midnight Interlude

Midnight Interlude
Brilliant Speed
Animal Kingdom
Dialed In
Master of Hounds

1. Animal Kingdom
2. Midnight Interlude
3. Shackleford
4. Dialed In
5. Archarcharch

Revised:
1) Dialed In
2) Santiva
3) Shakleford
4) Mucho Macho Man
5) Master of Hounds

Edited:
1. Soldat
2. Dialed In
3. Mucho Macho Man
4. Shackleford
5. Santiva

Derby Top 5......
 

1. #13 Mucho Macho Man
2. #8 Dialed In
3. #14 Shackleford
4. #17 Soldat
5.# Midnight Interlude

Good Luck All!

1 - Aaa
8 - Di
12 - S
13 - Mmm
15 - Mi

Well, after seeing the PP's and changing my mind a dozen times, looks like I'll use the following (subject to change):
Pants on Fire
Archarcharch
Master of Hounds
Shackleford
and Dialed In probably in a couple small exacta boxes.

1. Mucho Macho Man
2. Soldat
3. Dialed In
4. Midnight Interlude
5. Animal Kingdom

1.Archarcharch
2.Dialed in
3.MMM
4.Soldat
5.Animal

Final