Thank for the info,Justin, I could not remeber what Minethatbird's history was leading up to the race. Although we now have a recent example of a horse who did get in, due to,what appears over-inflated purses (I guess more connections should just target these races?), how long will it be before the next? Maybe Mine That Bird was both a beneficiary and a victim of the Graded earnings rule? Did he get a lot of 2nd and 3rd place $$$ in those Canadian races?

I don't want to get bogged down, I had my input, and there could be room for a lot of tinkering to my modest proposal.
Dialed In best be sure to be in the money next week, as he and others will surely be bumped down over the next 2-3 weeks

Me? I just need Astrology to be in those Derby gates, as I have future wagers on him and the factor(including a three entry exacta box with all other three year olds:$:)

Do they pay out on 17th place in the Derby? If so, that Astrology bet seems like a prescient one.

Mine that Bird got in the field when he was like 28th in graded earnings and there were a whole lot of horses that were injured or had owners who thought discretion was the better part of valor. I say again though, it's fine to bash the graded earnings rule, but it's yet to have kept out a horse from the Derby that actually had half a chance.

Steve u are missing Master of Hounds he is TC nominated and has 441,884 in Graded Earnings

I'll sell you that Astrology future wager;)

And thanks for the dropout info on MTB. Seriously, it does explain things some.

Sunday Break.

Of course I do have a $100 insurance wager on Astrology to finish in the bottom three:D

This is the published list from DRF and he was listed (24 Master of Hounds Aidan O'Brien $150,804) but without Saturday's earnings. The update from Churchill will likely have him situated properly, but I moved him up..

Ya he is on the DRF list that why I said it-I think they put him on after O'Brien said he is a KY Derby Horse. Did not say he was going YET tho

Even better, the current system insures that lots of horses with ZERO chance actually get in, which we should all embrace as handicappers.

Handicapping a 20-horse field gets a lot easier when you have auto-tosses like Twice the Appeal and Animal Kingdom getting in.

Going to take 225+ to get in this year.

Sunday Break? What do you suppose he would have finished in the Derby? 13th?

When you have 20 horses in a field, there isn't a system that could be created that wouldn't have auto-tosses in it. Graded earnings is just as fine as any other goofy scheme.

#20 right now is Premier Pegasus at 228,000

Remember lots of defections still...but I generally just pulled that number out of my ass so we will see.

I agree. A lot of horses are on the bubble.

He would have been up close to the pace behind War Emblem, and probably would have held off the closers in that merry-go-round Derby. I'd say he would have been a threat for 3rd or 4th. He ran 3rd in the Belmont.

Didn't Sunday Break's connections put him in one of those made to order allowance races on a Wednesday afternoon? If I recall correctly, then they had only themselves to blame for not having the earnings.

Gourmet Dinner is off the Derby/TC trail with a sore shin.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blo...erby_Trail_123

Trainer Peter Miller said that Comma to the Top, the winner of the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park in December but fourth in two starts this year, would have difficulty with the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.

“We’re not going to the Kentucky Derby,” Miller said. “We’ll see what happens. I’ve discussed it with the owners and we’re in the same mindset. I’m not on the Derby trail. I’m on the pre-Derby trail.”

http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-...ooking-crowded

Good move by Petey...He's a really cool horse..will have a nice career when he gets back on the grass.

I still find Master of Hounds interesting, don't like only one three year old prep and the fact that he hasn't run on dirt but his pedigree is excellent and he certainly should like the distance, also he has a decent turn of foot and won't have to rally from far back...I'll wait to see if (1) he's entered and (2) what his odds are but at a price, I think he could be worth a flyer and I would use him in exactas etc.

How could anyone like a turf horse who will go BC Juvy turf to UAE Derby to KY Derby? I'll be surprised if he finishes the race. . .

Master of Hounds in the Belmont Stakes, that might make more sense

To finish last

Do some research on the success of Mr. Prospector's progeny in the Belmont.

Plus, I merely stated he made more sense in the Belmont Stakes than in the Derby.

Master of Hounds is by Kingmambo.

Sure - his grandsire is Mr. Prospector - but pretty much everything is related to Mr. Prospector. 19 out of the 20 horses in the Derby last year had Mr. Prospector ... the only one who didn't was 3rd place finisher Paddy O' Prado.

You could've just pointed out that Kingmambo already has a Belmont winner. . . not that it's at all relevant.

Nice to see I could make it all the way to the kitchen for peanut butter crackers and back, and only have two rebuttals

Seeing how it's more than common here for people to post sarcastic, and derisive comments (it's always funny to see the threads wondering why there are not a lot of new fans-yet any newbie here is thoroughly trashed), I would say there are more than a few angry, isolated losers here that should move on to gardening, where they can boast their expertise in botany to little old ladies.

Not really thinking of Drugs here, as I always enjoyed his photos (never forget the tasteful photos of women in uniform around the world)

Now, please hockey and Drugs, and you probably can respond intelligently here, what , if any, generalizations can you make regarding a reasonable Belmont Stakes contender?

1. Not a turf horse.
2. Not a horse who clearly has some health issues and would be shipping halfway across the world.
3. Not a horse whose connections haven't mentioned at this point as a horse going to the Belmont.

Really, that doesn't answer my question at all. Not to get bogged down on the Belmont Stakes here in late March, but it does seem to not adhere to some of the golden rules of the Derby or the Preakness

I'll move on

Knock yourself out ...

http://www1.drf.com/tc/belmont/2010/belmont-stats.html

Click the name to get pp's.

Thanks, I was just looking for these. You know, some people used to talk dosage with Derby contenders, or RAN, I find that the Belmont Stakes winners are far less predictable from a Beyer speed fig viewpoint than the first two legs of the Triple Crown, and have wondered what the pp's of a Belmont winner tend to look like

That's all I'm saying. Some nights I can't sleep, and what better thing to do than pour over Belmont Stakes pp's from the past?

Did it really take you twelve minutes to go to the kitchen for peanut butter and crackers?

Maybe he has that natural peanut butter that you have to stir first, which is like mixing concrete with a spoon.

He probably had the munchies and stared into the fridge for 8.5 minutes trying to decide what he wanted.

He is from Vermont.

For a brief stretch there in the late '80s-early '90s, the converses of those generalizations would have helped you nail the trifecta in a handful of Belmonts.

'89- French trained Le Voyageur runs 3rd to Easy Goer-Sunday Silence
'90- Irish trained Go And Go romps by 8 lengths over Unbridled et al
'92- English import My Memoirs splits A.P. Indy and Pine Bluff
'95- English trained Citadeed follows Thunder Gulch around the track

Last horse in Derby's graded stakes earnings past five years

[horse - graded earnings - Derby finish]

2010: Make Music for Me...$218,750... 4th
2009: Nowhere to Hide... $55,500... 17th
2008: Denis of Cork... $165,000... 3rd
2007: Imawildandcrazyguy... $104,000... 4th
2006: Flashy Bull... $109,000... 14th

Can you believe Nowhere to Hide...OMG

That year there was a parade of outs over the last 48-72 hours. It was ridiculous.

Graded Earnings (4/3/11)

1 Uncle Mo Todd Pletcher $1,260,000
2 Dialed In Nicholas Zito $840,000
3 Pants On Fire Kelly Breen $623,000
4 J P's Gusto Joseph Petalino $541,500
5 Soldat Kiaran McLaughlin $540,000
6 Master of Hounds Aidan O'Brien $441,884
7 Twice the Appeal Jeff Bonde $400,000
8 Mucho Macho Man Katherine Ritvo $370,000
9 To Honor and Serve William Mott $350,000
10 Decisive Moment Juan Arias $301,000

11 Animal Kingdom H. Motion $285,000
12 Astrology Steven Asmussen $281,893
13 The Factor Bob Baffert $270,000
14 Stay Thirsty Todd Pletcher $260,000
15 Jaycito Bob Baffert $250,000
16 Santiva Eddie Kenneally $240,254
17 Watch Me Go Kathleen O'Connell $232,500
18 Premier Pegasus Myung Cho $228,000
19 Shackleford Dale Romans $212,000
20 Nehro Steven Asmussen $200,000

21 Archarcharch William Fires $180,000
22 Anthony's Cross Eoin Harty $162,000
23 Brethren Todd Pletcher $155,000
24 Blue Laser Mark Casse $143,502
25 Flashpoint Richard Dutrow, Jr. $140,000
26 Willcox Inn Michael Stidham $139,000
27 Silver Medallion Steven Asmussen $124,334
28 Sweet Ducky Herman Brown $120,000
29 Travelin Man Todd Pletcher $120,000
30 Lou Brissie Neil Howard $99,043

31 Ruler On Ice Kelly Breen $96,000
32 Joes Blazing Aaron Allan Hunter, Jr. $90,000
33 Major Gain Wayne Catalano $86,370
34 Caleb's Posse Donnie Von Hemel $71,504
35 Nacho Saint Kelly Breen $70,500
36 Wilkinson Neil Howard $70,000
37 Elite Alex Timothy Ritchey $65,000
38 Sway Away Jeff Bonde $61,500
39 Twinspired Michael Maker $47,500

40 Indiano* Martin Wolfson $44,400
41 Surrey Star (IRE) James Cassidy $44,257
42 Classic Legacy Bob Baffert $41,756
43 Jakesam Jerry Hollendorfer $40,000
44 Alexander Pope (IRE) Aidan O'Brien $40,000
45 Abjer (FR) Ismail Mohammed $36,235

* Possible supplemental nomination