uh-oh....snot alert!!

This all leads to the most important question:

Better pitcher: Jerry Koosman or Catfish Hunter?

I wonder what Halladay's stats would be if he had pitched in the NL East from 26-31 instead of in the AL East against the Red Sox and Yankees all year while playing for a team that sucks and never having important games down the stretch?

I know he's played one year in the NL East.. and those stats match up with Maddux NL East Stats.

21-10 (losing a few games where he only gave up 1-2 runs)
2.44 ERA... I know Maddux had two crazy ass seasons where he had a sub 2 era... but 2.44 matches up well with Greg Maddux.
Cy Young Winner
9 complete games
4 complete game shut outs
250 innings pitched
ERA + of 165
WHIP of 1.041
an absolute incredible 7.30 strike outs/walk ratio
219 strike outs

not to mention a Perfect Game along the 2nd No Hitter in Baseball Playoff History.

Seriously, how do you think they Halladay / Maddux would match up if Halladay had the benifit of playing in the NL East from 26-31. Its no question that pitching in the NL East compared to AL east is night and day.

Just watch them both pitch. Both guys have/had nasty pitches. a handful of different pitches to throw out... all for strikes. more movement than a damn rollercoaster. Very comparable pitchers. Comparable human beings also. Both class acts who took much pride in work ethic.

Antitrust, you do realize that stats like ERA+ are attempting to quantify exactly what you are saying? And based on the adjusted stats (read: adjusted for park/league factors, etc.), Halladay isn't in Maddux's league, and isn't likely to ever get there. Maddux had six seasons with ERA+ numbers higher than Halladay's 2009 season, and those seasons came in the steroid hey-day of the early 1990's. You question whether or not Halladay would have similar numbers to Maddux during his peak years; I question whether Halladay would have had the same success pitching against a bunch of guys on the cream and the clear for the majority of his career.

Of course, that isn't to say Halladay's not a Hall of Famer - he is - but he's unlikely to have career value on the same par as Maddux when all is said and done.

I have nothing against Halladay. I just think Maddux was better. And when Halladay's career is done I think the evidence will be overwhelming. If Halladay continues at his present rate until he's 40, I may change my opinion, but until that actually happens I'll always feel Maddux is a better pitcher. I think Babe Ruth was better than Lou Gehrig. It doesn't mean Gehrig was a stiff.

If Halladay continues for another 7-8 seasons the way he's been pitching the last 8-9 seasons, he'll be an all-timer. That being said, people generally age differently than, say, Roger Clemens.

if that is the case... hopefully he'll have more hardware.

If Halladay does what he did this past year for the next 4 years, there career value will be on a very similar par.

Doc Halladay is still in the midst of his prime and is on a very good baseball team. poor guy.. been the best pitcher in baseball the past decade and had to spend it on the Blue Jays.

one thing about Roy is he is the harders worker in the league. Blue Jays and Phillies have said that. His work ethic is un matched in baseball. He has a notebook that records every work out, lift, run, pitch etc, that he's done every day for his career. (would be gold to get ahold of that notebook) Hopefully, he can still be in his prime for 5 or more years.

I hope he is. He's a great pitcher. Even great pitchers have trouble beating Father Time though.

How do stats adjust for that accurately? Impossible.

he sure won't be making it six this year! next ain't looking good either.

he may be benched this week from what I saw on ESPN this morning.

I'm sorry he's your problem now...

Not that difficult. Take the par for ERA that year, account for park factors, and voila, you have a statistically relevant way to account for what league a particular pitcher was playing in for that season. Sabermetricians do it all the time.

How interesting that even Greg Maddux himself agree's with me about this "on paper" thing. hmm. seem to have a lot of credible opinions backing up mine!

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/p...g_Maddux_.html

You take out of stuff what you want to take out of it. Here's the only quote of Maddux I noticed in that article.


“I think you have to let them pitch together for two or three years and see what happens.

He backs up whatever opinion that was offered on this thread that you want him to back up.

My only input was that at his best Halladay nor Lee will ever be as good as Maddux was at his best in the 90s nor will have anything close to the career Maddux had. That is true. The entire 4 may be as good as the Braves was for a short time. That is possible.

Stick your twat in your zipper.

Morty told me to say that.

It was more for slotdirt than for you. I dont have any issues with your opinion about Maddux compared to Halladay. I think that Halladay is the pitcher that most resembles Maddux since Greg himself. Though looking at those two years (94 and 95? or was it 95 and 96?) Maddux was unfrickingbelievable. I think Halladay matches up quite well with Maddux except those two years. Who knows, maybe Halladay can string together something along those lines. Both pitchers had nasty movement that could always find the strike zone.

I just dont agree at all with slot dirts opinion that our 4 guys dont compare with the Braves 4 guys.

done and done!

[quote=slotdirt;734290]Not that difficult. Take the par for ERA that year, account for park factors, and voila, you have a statistically relevant way to account for what league a particular pitcher was playing in for that season. Sabermetricians do it all the time.[/QUOT

That is flawed especially considering that it doesn't take into account the unbalanced schedules.

Beyond on that, how can any stat possibly measure what its like to be in the dog days with your team hopelessly out of contention and then having to pitch to the red sox, yankees and red sox again in the course of two weeks? Impossible.

The money situation in baseball only became this ridiculous during Halladay's career.

Are you saying that, say, Felix Hernandez's stats weren't any good last year because he got to pitch against AL West opponents a bunch of times? If so, then you're basically insinuating that basically every baseball statistic in history is meaningless. Good luck with that argument.

McNabb benched this sunday for the one and only Rex Grossman..

oh, sweet vindication.

McNabb is a great guy... but nobody should feel sorry for a man who's made more than 100 million dollars by not winning big games.

Redskins fans (if there are any left) are collectively saying "WTF?" right now. I get benching the guy, but for Rex Grossman? Shanahan has seen Rex Grossman play, right? What an awful job he's done this year.

you are the one who looked at the Halladay stats from this past year.. picked out the ERA+ stat and made it seem like 2010 Halladay NL East year didnt compare with Maddux when it is easy to see that it did (minus those 95-96 Maddux years where he was out of this world).

Shanahan should have stuck with Jason Campbell (who is no better or worse than Low Throw McBlow).. kept his 2nd and 3rd round picks to get players who will impact the team in the future.. and then went for Luck/Mallet/Locker in April 2011.

Hindsight is always 20/20.. but it was apparent how this would work out as soon as the trade was announced. Big Andy Reid pulled one over on the Skins (though i still think it was a terrible idea to deal him to a division rival no matter what has happened since)

No, not what i said. Are you saying that his stats wouldn't be more impressive if he pitched for toronto last year instead of seattle?

Maybe big Andy isnt such a bad coach/gm after all?

What Mcnabb did this year has nothing to do with what he did for 10 years in philly. He is not what he was and im sure you can agree with that.

Reid got out while the getting was good.

he is a shell of his former 2000-2005 self, yes. But he's been on the decline since then. He just had a lot better guys around him and a top o-line to work with (except for '09). Once he decided he didnt want to be a "black qb" and stop running.. he was average. Terribly inaccurate. & maybe not the brightest qb to ever play the game. Has he ever won a championship in his career? in HS? I know he choked at 'cuse too..

I take that back... now that I read he will be 3rd string behind rex and john beck... i kinda feel bad for the guy.

Impossible to know. I'd think it would be possible that facing the same team many more times over the course of a given year would equalize, in the case of a Toronto starting pitcher, the number of times that pitcher has to face a lineup like the Yankees or Rays. Moreover, we're talking about pitchers who only play 35 games maximum over the course of a 162 game season. Unbalanced schedules would seem to be statistically irrelevant when it comes to starting pitchers.

Do you think that maybe you should re-think this last sentence?

Not really. You're talking about 35 games, and in the case of the AL, that means 10 more games against division rivals than other members of the league. Throw in the two different stints of interleague play, and the pitcher who threw the most innings and made the most starts on the Blue Jays in 2010 pitched as many games against Texas (3) as he did the Devil Rays or the Yankees, but one less than he got to throw against...the Orioles.

Care to rethink your understanding of basic stats, dalakhani?

That would be the case if a pitcher truly pitched every fifth day but that isn't reality. Rotations are shaken up throughout the 6 month season due to injury, performance or matchup.

By the way, how is Michael Vick doing this year?

What does that have to do with anything? Great deflection.

If you aren't bright enough to understand that the ace of a staff is going to face the teams in his division more than the teams in other divisions and why that happens, I can't help you. If you can't understand that this will seriously impact that pitcher's stats, I can't help you.

Lets look at Halladays starts last year:

s. ARI 1.00 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 9.0 6 1 1 0 0 9 .188
vs. ATL 1.44 3 0 0 0 3 3 2 25.0 17 4 4 2 4 17 .198
vs. BOS 9.53 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 5.2 8 7 6 1 2 1 .320
vs. CHC 7.50 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 6.0 7 6 5 2 0 3 .292
vs. CIN 2.12 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 17.0 18 4 4 2 1 19 .273
vs. COL 1.26 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 14.1 15 3 2 0 3 13 .273
vs. FLA 1.66 4 1 0 0 5 5 1 38.0 29 7 7 3 2 41 .210
vs. HOU 1.69 1 1 0 0 2 2 1 16.0 13 4 3 2 0 14 .224
vs. LAD 3.86 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 7.0 10 3 3 1 1 4 .370
vs. MIL 5.14 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 7.0 7 4 4 4 2 6 .250
vs. MIN 3.38 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 8.0 11 4 3 2 0 8 .344
vs. NYM 2.56 4 0 0 0 4 4 1 31.2 24 9 9 1 2 28 .207
vs. NYY 9.00 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 6.0 8 6 6 3 2 5 .320
vs. PIT 2.00 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 9.0 9 2 2 0 1 6 .250
vs. SDG 2.57 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 7.0 10 2 2 0 1 7 .333
vs. SFO 6.43 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 7.0 10 5 5 1 0 5 .333
vs. STL 1.29 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 7.0 7 2 1 0 3 9 .250
vs. TOR 0.00 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 7.0 6 0 0 0 1 4 .231
vs. WAS 0.39 3 0 0 0 3 3 1 23.0 16 1 1 0 5 20 .198


Notice a pattern there? Halladay started more than two times against only 4 teams. THEY WERE ALL IN HIS DIVISION.

snot alert!!


snot alert!!

Hunter and it isn't even close, despite the fact that Kooz played for my beloved Mets and Hunter played for those guys in the Bronx.


On topic, who cares where the Phillies' rotation ranks all time? I care about RIGHT NOW, and they are 1/5 to win a WS in the next 3 years. My team is 50/1 for the same span.

Will the bullpen be the question?

Of course any given pitcher has a higher likelihood to pitch against division rivals in an unbalanced schedule. The question is whether that obvious point is statistically relevant, something you clearly have failed to grasp when discussing a sport that relies more on statistics than any other sport on the planet.

LOL If one guy pitches a majority of his starts against the yanks, rays and red sox and the other guy pitches a a majority of his starts against the nationals, marlins and mets...

And you don't think there is statistical relevancy? This is dumb.