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-   -   5/15 (PIM): Ike out; 12 for Preakness; Draw 5pm (HRTV) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=35888)

RolloTomasi 05-09-2010 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 645385)
I think the next defection will be A Little Warm, who had a fever after shipping up to Delaware and was supposed to work this weekend. He has not worked, so hopefully Tony Dutrow will re-think this and run him in the Woody Stephens on Belmont day.

NT

Yep. As it stands, he also should have been in the Withers.

NTamm1215 05-09-2010 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 645391)
Yep. As it stands, he also should have been in the Withers.

I completely agree and in fact, I think that provided he's healthy he has a chance to become the best 3YO sprinter around.

NT

RolloTomasi 05-09-2010 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 645394)
I completely agree and in fact, I think that provided he's healthy he has a chance to become the best 3YO sprinter around.

NT

It's kind of a shame with the NYRA streamline of stakes races.

A Little Warm could have tried the 7f Woody Stephens followed by the 8.5f Dwyer in July which would have gone a long way in determining what race he should run in on Travers Day.

NTamm1215 05-09-2010 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 645401)
It's kind of a shame with the NYRA streamline of stakes races.

A Little Warm could have tried the 7f Woody Stephens followed by the 8.5f Dwyer in July which would have gone a long way in determining what race he should run in on Travers Day.

The two races that are not on the calendar that will be missed are the Dwyer (at its old date) and the Tom Fool. Now there's not a graded race in NY for sprinters between the True North and Vanderbilt.

NT

RolloTomasi 05-09-2010 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 645405)
The two races that are not on the calendar that will be missed are the Dwyer (at its old date) and the Tom Fool. Now there's not a graded race in NY for sprinters between the True North and Vanderbilt.

NT

Wow. Didn't know about the Tom Fool. They haven't had the Brooklyn now for several years, so I guess after the Met Mile it's the 10f Grade 2 Suburban or nothing for both sprinters and handicap horses in general.

NTamm1215 05-09-2010 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 645409)
Wow. Didn't know about the Tom Fool. They haven't had the Brooklyn now for several years, so I guess after the Met Mile it's the 10f Grade 2 Suburban or nothing for both sprinters and handicap horses in general.

The Suburban was actually shortened to 9 furlongs this year and is part of a very watered down July 4th weekend.

You'd have to think that Pletcher is going to point Quality Road to the Whitney, so I wonder if he'll use the Suburban in the interim. The Whitney actually has the potential to be a terrific race if Battle Plan improves in the Foster, Blame comes back in good order and QR gets back in form.

NT

parsixfarms 05-09-2010 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 645410)
You'd have to think that Pletcher is going to point Quality Road to the Whitney, so I wonder if he'll use the Suburban in the interim. The Whitney actually has the potential to be a terrific race if Battle Plan improves in the Foster, Blame comes back in good order and QR gets back in form.

I can't imagine that Pletcher would run Battle Plan against Quality Road.

NTamm1215 05-09-2010 03:30 PM

I mentioned earlier that A Little Warm didn't work today but Tony Dutrow did say the other day that he'd breeze Sunday or Monday. John Velazquez has the mount.

NT

tjfla 05-09-2010 04:04 PM

Ya there shouldnt be any other defections

Seems there are 13 confirmed/should be going

1. Aikenite (Todd Pletcher)
2. A Little Warm (Tony Dutrow)
3. Caracortado (Mike Machowsky/Paul Atkinson)
4. Dublin (D. Wayne Lukas)
5. Hurricane Ike (John Sadler)
6. Jackson Bend (Nick Zito)
7. Paddy O Prado (Dale Romans/Kent Desormeaux)
8. Pleasant Prince (Wesley Ward)
9. Schoolyard Dreams (Derek Ryan)
10. Super Saver (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
11. First Dude (Dale Romans)
12. Lookin At Lucky (Bob Baffert/Garrett Gomez)
13. Northern Giant (D. Wayne Lukas)

With 1 of these 2 going
14. Mission Impazible (Todd Pletcher) Possible
15. Yawanna Twist (Rick Dutrow) Possible

Alan07 05-09-2010 04:29 PM

First Dude on the bubble.

Sightseek 05-10-2010 02:19 PM

A Little Warm is out. Bled in a workout.

blackthroatedwind 05-10-2010 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 645876)
A Little Warm is out. Bled in a workout.

Probably good for him, assuming he's OK, and definitely good news for First Dude....who unlike A Little Warm can actually win the race.

Kasept 05-10-2010 02:54 PM

PREAKNESS FIELD (Click for PP's)

1. Aikenite (Todd Pletcher)
2. Caracortado (Mike Machowsky/Paul Atkinson)
3. Dublin (D. Wayne Lukas/Garrett Gomez)
4. First Dude (Dale Romans)
5. Jackson Bend (Nick Zito)
6. Lookin At Lucky (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia)
7. Northern Giant (D. Wayne Lukas)
8. Paddy O Prado (Dale Romans/Kent Desormeaux)
9. Pleasant Prince (Wesley Ward)
10. Schoolyard Dreams (Derek Ryan)
11. Super Saver (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
12. Yawanna Twist (Rick Dutrow)

slotdirt 05-10-2010 04:34 PM

That field makes for an interesting race from a betting perspective. I do heart Preakness day.

tjfla 05-10-2010 06:47 PM

Should make a really nice betting race especially for people who dont like Super Saver at 5/2

Sightseek 05-10-2010 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 645887)
PREAKNESS FIELD (Click for PP's)

1. Aikenite (Todd Pletcher)
2. Caracortado (Mike Machowsky/Paul Atkinson)
3. Dublin (D. Wayne Lukas/Garrett Gomez)
4. First Dude (Dale Romans)
5. Hurricane Ike (John Sadler)
6. Jackson Bend (Nick Zito)
7. Lookin At Lucky (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia)
8. Mission Impazible (Todd Pletcher) Possible
9. Northern Giant (D. Wayne Lukas)
10. Paddy O Prado (Dale Romans/Kent Desormeaux)
11. Pleasant Prince (Wesley Ward)
12. Schoolyard Dreams (Derek Ryan)
13. Super Saver (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
14. Yawanna Twist (Rick Dutrow)

Mission Impaziable posted on Facebook that he isn't going.

Port Conway Lane 05-10-2010 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 645972)
Mission Impaziable posted on Facebook that he isn't going.

How do you know it was the colt himself posting and not an imposter ?

dalakhani 05-10-2010 08:13 PM

Will Super Saver have the lead early? I don't see any real speedballs in here.

NTamm1215 05-10-2010 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani (Post 645991)
Will Super Saver have the lead early? I don't see any real speedballs in here.

He's going to be forwardly placed, that's for sure. Hurricane Ike is a likely pacesetter on the stretchout but Albarado is one of the least aggressive jockeys in the country.

NT

randallscott35 05-10-2010 08:59 PM

MI out. ALW out....Looks like 13 go.

nomad 05-10-2010 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 645878)
Probably good for him, assuming he's OK, and definitely good news for First Dude....who unlike A Little Warm can actually win the race.

It sounds as if you like First Dude somewhat. The Preakness usually runs more chalky than the derby. Two of the top 3 derby finishers in the money, just a matter of picking that 3rd horse for the tri box.

We will be there!

kgar311 05-11-2010 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomad (Post 646073)
It sounds as if you like First Dude somewhat. The Preakness usually runs more chalky than the derby. Two of the top 3 derby finishers in the money, just a matter of picking that 3rd horse for the tri box.

We will be there!

Just look for the sentimental local horse to suck up third at a nice price.

CSC 05-11-2010 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 645993)
He's going to be forwardly placed, that's for sure. Hurricane Ike is a likely pacesetter on the stretchout but Albarado is one of the least aggressive jockeys in the country.

NT

Albarado was reported to have worked him tight to the rail, depending on the draw I think we can expect to see him there. I don't think he needs the lead but he should be on it or close to it.

slotdirt 05-11-2010 08:11 AM

I think the sentimental local horse sucks up for third far less often than one thinks.

XIIPointStables 05-11-2010 08:13 AM

Anyone have a lead on who might ride Aikenite?

Was hoping he would get JV or Alan Garcia for this race...

Yeah, yeah he's hopeless, but I'll be playing him in the exotics.

Thunder Gulch 05-11-2010 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanner12oz (Post 643034)
would love to see jackson bend come out of the derby ok and run the preakness...distance might suit him a little better

I don't know if he wants to go even 9 f, but there appears to be a lot less speed in here and I think this colt will give it a go.

analyizethis 05-11-2010 12:57 PM

Derby starters in the Preakness
 
On Monday's show you said that 19 of the last 30 ITM finishers at the Preakness had run in the Derby. Actually it think it was 20.

Fu Peg and Impreachment in 2000; AP Valentine, Point Given and Congree in 2001: War Emblem and Proud Citizen in 2002; Funny Cide and Scrimshaw in 2003; Smarty Jones in 2004; Afleet Alex and Giacomo in 2005; Sweetnorthernsaint in 2006; Curlin, Street Sense and Hard Spun in 2007; Big Brown and Macho Again in 2008 and Mine That Bird and Musket Man in 2009.

justindew 05-11-2010 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by analyizethis (Post 646238)
On Monday's show you said that 19 of the last 30 ITM finishers at the Preakness had run in the Derby. Actually it think it was 20.

Fu Peg and Impreachment in 2000; AP Valentine, Point Given and Congree in 2001: War Emblem and Proud Citizen in 2002; Funny Cide and Scrimshaw in 2003; Smarty Jones in 2004; Afleet Alex and Giacomo in 2005; Sweetnorthernsaint in 2006; Curlin, Street Sense and Hard Spun in 2007; Big Brown and Macho Again in 2008 and Mine That Bird and Musket Man in 2009.

I don't think Macho Again ran in the Derby.

randallscott35 05-11-2010 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus (Post 646240)
This is an excellent example of why I cannot listen to Steve's show.

Too much misinformation.

:tro:

Kasept 05-11-2010 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by analyizethis (Post 646238)
On Monday's show you said that 19 of the last 30 ITM finishers at the Preakness had run in the Derby. Actually it think it was 20.

Fu Peg and Impreachment in 2000;
AP Valentine, Point Given and Congree in 2001;
War Emblem and Proud Citizen in 2002;
Funny Cide and Scrimshaw in 2003;
Smarty Jones in 2004;
Afleet Alex and Giacomo in 2005;
Sweetnorthernsaint in 2006;
Curlin, Street Sense and Hard Spun in 2007;
Big Brown and Macho Again in 2008;
Mine That Bird and Musket Man in 2009..

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew (Post 646241)
I don't think Macho Again ran in the Derby.

He didn't.

Back to 19...

randallscott35 05-11-2010 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 646245)
He didn't.

Back to 19...

:$:

CSC 05-11-2010 01:41 PM

Alydeed and Macho Again both ran in the derby trial, other notables that missed the derby but ran well were Touch Gold in the Lexington, Red Bullet in the Woodward, and Bernadini ran in the Withers. Rachel obcourse won it last year off of the Oaks.

Alan07 05-12-2010 09:23 AM

Hurricane Ike demures from Preakness
 
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/spor...ed_from_p.html

Kasept 05-12-2010 10:13 AM

PREAKNESS FIELD (Click for PP's)

1. Aikenite (Todd Pletcher)
2. Caracortado (Mike Machowsky/Paul Atkinson)
3. Dublin (D. Wayne Lukas/Garrett Gomez)
4. First Dude (Dale Romans)
5. Jackson Bend (Nick Zito)
6. Lookin At Lucky (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia)
7. Northern Giant (D. Wayne Lukas)
8. Paddy O Prado (Dale Romans/Kent Desormeaux)
9. Pleasant Prince (Wesley Ward)
10. Schoolyard Dreams (Derek Ryan)
11. Super Saver (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
12. Yawanna Twist (Rick Dutrow)

-BT- 05-12-2010 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 646640)
PREAKNESS FIELD (Click for PP's)

1. Aikenite (Todd Pletcher)
2. Caracortado (Mike Machowsky/Paul Atkinson)
3. Dublin (D. Wayne Lukas/Garrett Gomez)
4. First Dude (Dale Romans)
5. Jackson Bend (Nick Zito)
6. Lookin At Lucky (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia)
7. Northern Giant (D. Wayne Lukas)
8. Paddy O Prado (Dale Romans/Kent Desormeaux)
9. Pleasant Prince (Wesley Ward)
10. Schoolyard Dreams (Derek Ryan)
11. Super Saver (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
12. Yawanna Twist (Rick Dutrow)

lot of holes where the jocks names should be for a 5pm draw... interesting

-bt-

slotdirt 05-12-2010 10:45 AM

I'm sure Horatio Karamanos or Julian Pimentel are available.

tjfla 05-12-2010 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan07 (Post 646601)

Looks like Super Saver and Jax Bend will be on the lead

clyde 05-12-2010 11:42 AM

Gosh, I thought you were blind.

CSC 05-12-2010 01:46 PM

This is a bummer. Nice horse, would have been a very interesting horse Saturday.


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