agree...and could totally see Rosario bringing home a bomb. Still kicking myself for not covering him in the BC Sprint.

If the Derby were run on turf, Make Music for Me would still probably be like 10th choice in this field.

10th choice sounds good to me. The idea is to make money after all so I hope his odds are very high.

Paul

Good luck with him. I'd imagine an over/under of about 13th would be about fair for the horse.

Just confirming that we'll get to hear you crow about how right you were if one of 17 horses wins. Because you're totally the first to say that there are no standouts in the field.

Somebody has to win the frigging race. I can't bust the chops of someone taking a price, except for the fact that all the true longshots go off at underlaid odds. In this race there is always some horse that should be 150-1 that goes off at 60-1 instead. Derby betting is unique unto its own, with names and numbers get bet by once-a-year betters.

The rest of the card is up, Churchill Down S. looks really interesting:

http://www.equibase.com/static/entry...10USA-EQB.html

I dug a little deeper into Make Music for Me, and I'm sorry, but I don't understand. And it's weird because the poster who is mentioning this horse is one of the more astute handicappers we have around here. The horse has worked precisely once since Blue Grass day, has won precisely one race in his entire career - a listed turf stakes, and has never even sniffed beating a good horse in his life. If we're just taking stabs to take stabs because the field is more than lackluster, I understand that, but I'd love to hear someone explain how Make Music for Me warrants any consideration for Saturday. Mike Welsh on his 4/25 workout:

Make Music For Me (five furlongs in 1:02.40): There was not much to like about this move for the horse who now is first on the earnings bubble. He completed his final quarter in a lackluster 25.73 and like Dublin didn't gallop out very well, pulling up six furlongs in 1:17.79.

This is true on the win end, but in exotic wagers, their odds shake-out to more appropriate levels.

I would suggest going back to watch some of Make Music for Me's races before rushing to judgement. Now I am not suggesting that he is the most likely winner of this race. But, I do think he has a real shot to win and will be among the longest prices on the board which to me makes him worth a look.

Make Music for Me has three times faced Looking at Lucky in his career. he finished 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd in those three attempts. All three losses were by a length and a quarter or less. Since Looking at Lucky will be one tenth of his price, and the race favorite, the fact that they have run so competitevely is encouraging. He has also run well against Noble's Promise as well.

Because he had serious earnings as a two year old, his trainer took it very easy on him this year so he would peak on saturday. This will be his third start of the year off the layoff.

I understand the knocks. His breeding certainly screams turf. He is not excatly a win machine. But you won't get 50-1 shots with no knocks.

However, if you dig deeper, he is coming in fresh, this is his third race off the layoff, the distance should not be an issue, he has the right running style for this race, and he will offer tremendous value.

I will be betting him. I may be way off base but in a race that has no clear standout, I want a horse that will offer value where if I am right, I will be seriously rewarded. At 50-1, he is a value.

Paul

Well, either he's fresh or he's about to fall apart. Not exactly a workout tab that engenders confidence. I think 50-1 is probably on the low end of where he'll actually be come post time.

He raced three weeks ago. He has worked twice since then. One was a bullet on April 19 at Keeneland. The other was a more even effort. I didn't see either work but wouldn't be concerned.

I hope no one else in America bets him but me. The higher the price the better.

Paul

I'm going to cover him...probably w/a $20 win bet...just in case. Sorry.:)

No worries. Just don't blame me if he runs up the track...

Paul

I'm not sure you'll be the only person betting the horse, but I think it's fair to say he'll be competing with Homeboykris for highest odds on the tote board. I hope you're a rich man come Saturday at 7:00 Eastern.

Beg to differ. Many cruise in make their bets and go home and watch. Too many people, partiers, lines at the windows etc etc..

Most of the regular hard core guys at my old hang out in Ohio fit that mold.

Thats what I do-used to spend all day at track but now just too many damn people. I go in at 10 make my bets and watch at home

He's run ONE 'standout' race: the Pasadena on the TURF.

Noble's Promise has dusted him each time they've met.

Good luck to all those looking to bet him. :rolleyes:

Great job Paul. I appreciate the insight.

I take it you like NP in the Derby?

I'm boxing him with SC.

I'm concerned about the distance for NP, but there's no question he's a hard trier who has already outrun his pedigree, and if you can look past the pedigree he's 4x the price of L@L for virtually the same past performances.

Personally I won't be using him much because I don't think he can get a mile and a quarter but I can't argue with anyone who says he can and 12-1 is a fair price to find out at.

Derby futures
 

Looking for some help guy.
On the future bet,(pool two) Do you get the odds the horse goes off at or
What your future odds were. I have 11 horses in Derby? (the field)

3-1

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...s/futures.html

I am using Super Saver in all spots, and it pains me because I am not a fan of Smiley Borel.

3rd off the layoff, TAP trained, familiar with Churchill and better Beyer figs each time out.

Very nice horse, and I like that he was able to rate (sort of) in the AR Derby. He also should move up on a wet track. I have a sneaking suspicion he doesn't want 10 furlongs though.

If it is sloppy I'm focusing on American Lion, Conveyance and Sidney's Candy.

Sen. McConnell picked Super Saver today. Look out.

Paddy O'Prado could love the slop as well.
giving a muddy and not real sloppy track. Could be
used in deep exotics.

Nah, however I might crow if Setsuko wins the American Turf on Friday.

In a nutshell
 

1 Lookin at Lucky (Gomez) 3-1 good horse always has trouble
2 Ice Box (Lezcano) 10-1 plods up for show
3 Noble's Promise (W. Martinez) 12-1hard knocker, user
4 Super Saver (Borel) 15-1could finish last
5 Line of David (Bejarano) 30-1same as above
6 Stately Victor (A. Garcia) 30-1peaked
7 American Lion (Flores) 30-1inconsistant
8 Dean's Kitten (Albarado) 50-1nope
9 Make Music for Me (Rosario) 50-1more nope
10 Paddy O'Prado (Desormeaux) 20-1 not terrible
11 Devil May Care (J. Velazquez) 10-1 not on Sat
12 Conveyance (M. Garcia) 12-1will fade
13 Jackson Bend (M. Smith) 15-1could be in the $
14 Mission Impazible (Maragh) 20-1wouldn't be a shock
15 Discreetly Mine (Castellano) 30-1would be a shock
16 Awesome Act (Leparoux) 10-1can't back on form
17 Dublin (Thompson) 12-1the sleeper always close
18 Backtalk (Mena) 50-1no
19 Homeboychris no
20 Sidney's Candy winner catch him if you can

Here's what I'm thinking right now (I have the right to change my opinions before the race)

$2 W Line of David for sentimental reasons

Oaks / Derby Double for #2

Blind Luck, Tidal Pool / Sid Candy, Discreetly Mine, Ice Box (may add another horse or two like Jackson Bend / Super Saver / Dublin)

$1 Exacta wheel

Sid Candy / Noble's Promise, Super Saver, Ice Box, Devil May Care, Conveyance, Jackson Bend, Discreetly Mine, Dublin

I'm keying Sid Candy on top and bottom of those horses.

It's hard to fathom that the Jockies for the 2 horses I like in this Derby may be winning riders come Saturday night. :confused:

I'm thinking of exchanging Jackson Bend for Paddy O Prado. Any thoughts?

Is Setsuko going to be the classic overbet potential Derby horse who runs up the track in the American Turf? This seems to be the sort of "consolation" race for horses pointing for the Derby who are left out of the starting gate, and none of them ever seem to run well in this spot.

I like neither so I can't help.

I said the exact same thing to somebody this morning. I don't like him near as much as others. I think he wants to go further and while his first turf race was solid, it was by no means spectacular. This field didn't turn up soft either. I think a lot of people that were hoping he got into the Derby already had decided they were going to bet him and still will even though its a completely different race.

I'm a fan of the horse, but have a sneaking suspicion dirt may be his surface of choice. I get the whole "we came all the way to Churchill, might as well run a race" deal, but I'm not sure this is the right race.

I have run my numbers and only been able to cut to 7 potential winners....

Dublin - can't toss.
Sidney's Candy - why not?
Conveyance - most consistant, but can he run from behind?
Super Saver - does he make the big jump?
American Lion - dirt move is for the best.
Jackson Bend - I'm thinking plugger for the 3 or 4 spot.
Ice Box - peaking at the right time,or was he geared for FLA.

still more work to form a wager........we shall see....:zz:

Conveyance from behind?? The only time he will be behind the field is when other horses are passing him in the stretch. He will be out front