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-   -   DERBY 136: Jocks nearly finalized; Bejarano gets Line of David.. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=35581)

Thunder Gulch 04-20-2010 10:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 637507)
For those that don't understand why Homeboy Kris is running, Louie Lazzinaro ("Sergio's guy") doesn't expect to stay heavily involved in the sport with his close friend Bobby Frankel having passed. He is not outrageously wealthy with money to burn chasing a Derby dream like a Ken Ramsey. He simply wants to be able to experience having a horse in the Derby knowing there almost certainly will never be another chance for him. It's as simple as that and I doubt any one of us would feel differently if the opportunity came our way.
I don't blame them at all. If I had enough money to blow, I'd buy HomeboyKris and run him myself while I watch from the infield. Everyone knows the rules (except Mandella) so too friggin bad if you get left out.

analyizethis 04-20-2010 10:38 PM
Coupled entries
 
Given the state of the potenial field, does it look like we will have any coupled betting interests?

I'm not familar enough with local rules but it seems like Rule and Super Saver would be most likely and what about Ice Box and Jackson Bend (if he gets in).

ateamstupid 04-20-2010 11:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by analyizethis (Post 637730)
Given the state of the potenial field, does it look like we will have any coupled betting interests?

I'm not familar enough with local rules but it seems like Rule and Super Saver would be most likely and what about Ice Box and Jackson Bend (if he gets in).
The Derby no longer permits coupled entries.

Kasept 04-21-2010 05:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 637706)
I would hate to see how much it would cost for a glass of wine if he was trying to get outrageously wealthy!
Yuck, yuck, yuck... Louie probably comps as much wine for patrons as he sells.

(And since when do you need to pay for your drinks in Saratoga? Just wear that slinky red number of yours and you'll never pay for anything.. anywhere.)

cakes44 04-21-2010 07:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski (Post 637674)
Approximate current mid-market from Betfair (note the takeout is much lower than what is available stateside, but market is a bit thin right now and we should have a better idea of off odds this time next week):
Eskendereya 11/5
Lookin At Lucky 6/1
Sidneys Candy 12/1
Awesome Act 18/1 (offer 15/1, no bids)
Endorsement 19/1
Dublin 30/1
Ice Box 30/1
Super Saver 30/1
American Lion 35/1
Stately Victor 35/1 (offer 27/1, no bids)
Line of David 35/1
Noble's Promise 40/1 (offer 30/1, no bids)
Interactif 50/1 (offer 40/1, no bids)
Rule 50/1 (offer 35/1, no bids)
Homeboykris 100/1 (offer 65/1, no bids)
Aikenite 150/1 (offer 100/1, no bids)
Backtalk 150/1 (offer 100/1, no bids)
Conveyance 60/1 (offer 40/1, no bids)
Mission Impazible 30/1
Deans Kitten 75/1 (offer 50/1, no bids)

Awesome Act looks to be playing the part of the wise guy horse with those odds. I was probably going to take a shot, depending on post-position, but no way at 15-1. I was thinking more like 25 or 30-1. I guess there's so many horses with absolutely no shot, that even horses with marginal talent are going to get bet.

ninetoone 04-21-2010 08:03 AM
I can't see Lookin' at Lucky going off at 6-1. My guess is 4-1 or 9-2. Sidney's Candy I see as 8 or 9 to one.

slotdirt 04-21-2010 08:17 AM
Illman pegs Endorsement as his wise guy horse on his blog, for whatever that is worth.

-BT- 04-21-2010 09:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt (Post 637777)
Illman pegs Endorsement as his wise guy horse on his blog, for whatever that is worth.
makes sense

as far as value goes:

lookin at lucky @ 6-1
Ice box @ 30-1
mission impazzible @ 30-1

all seem like solid value plays....


-bt-

slotdirt 04-21-2010 09:10 AM
Absolutely. Not a Mission Impazible fan (as I said last year with Musket Man, the day a half to Forest Camp wins the Derby, American breeders need to hang it up), but Ice Box should run huge, and Lookin at Lucky will be a great play at 6-1.

NTamm1215 04-21-2010 09:13 AM
Lookin at Lucky has as much chance of being 6-1 as Chuck Simon and I do of riding the Derby.

NT

Scav 04-21-2010 09:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 637798)
Lookin at Lucky has as much chance of being 6-1 as Chuck Simon and I do of riding the Derby.

NT
He has been shedding weight, he might have a chance fairly soon... :)

philcski 04-21-2010 11:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 637798)
Lookin at Lucky has as much chance of being 6-1 as Chuck Simon and I do of riding the Derby.

NT
Again, Betfair has a takeout closer to 5% than 16%, but looking at 2008 as an example, Big Brown was 2.4-1 and Colonel John was 2nd choice at 4.7-1. If Eskendereya goes off at 2.2-1 then Lookin at Lucky would be over 5-1 as the second choice. I don't think he's going to be lower than 9/2.

cakes44 04-21-2010 11:20 AM
I really don't get all the love for Lookin at Lucky, and I even have a futures bet on him. His race on the dirt to barely get up past Noble's Promise didn't exactly scream KD winner to me.

tjfla 04-21-2010 11:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 637823)
I really don't get all the love for Lookin at Lucky, and I even have a futures bet on him. His race on the dirt to barely get up past Noble's Promise didn't exactly scream KD winner to me.
I dont get the love for horses whos trainers use the he ran bad cause of a cut on his leg when he clipped heels. If this stuff happens in a 8 horse race-just imagine what will happen in a 20 horse race.

The losing of a shoe is a different story but I am getting sick of hearing my horse finished 4th out of 7 horses cause he got bumped and has a cut.

Patrick333 04-21-2010 11:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 637595)
John Sadler has secured Rafael Bejarano to ride Line of David bumping Jon Court.
Sorry to hear the Court lost the ride.

-BT- 04-21-2010 12:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjfla (Post 637825)
I dont get the love for horses whos trainers use the he ran bad cause of a cut on his leg when he clipped heels. If this stuff happens in a 8 horse race-just imagine what will happen in a 20 horse race.

The losing of a shoe is a different story but I am getting sick of hearing my horse finished 4th out of 7 horses cause he got bumped and has a cut.
what?

-bt-

Thunder Gulch 04-21-2010 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjfla (Post 637825)
I dont get the love for horses whos trainers use the he ran bad cause of a cut on his leg when he clipped heels. If this stuff happens in a 8 horse race-just imagine what will happen in a 20 horse race.

The losing of a shoe is a different story but I am getting sick of hearing my horse finished 4th out of 7 horses cause he got bumped and has a cut.
Did you see the race? I don't like horses that have trouble often, but in this case Espinoza tries to send Gomez over the rail. Lucky would have never gotten to Candy, but he lost 5 lengths or so in virtually stopping at the top of the stretch. He re-rallied on his own to finish as well as he did.

cakes44 04-21-2010 12:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by -BT- (Post 637834)
what?

-bt-
Yeah, I didn't quite understand it myself. I think that he was talking about Noble's Promise, which wasn't the topic. If he's talking about LAL, then I'm really confused.

Merlinsky 04-21-2010 01:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 637798)
Lookin at Lucky has as much chance of being 6-1 as Chuck Simon and I do of riding the Derby.

NT
Sadler gives Court the bad news: "Look I'm sorry, but we're gonna have to go with Chuck Simon on Line of David for the Derby...you know you'd be our guy if nobody posting on DT had wanted the mount."

I've started hearing the wiseguy horses being tossed around. It's always kinda interesting to see people pile on a horse because tips are flying right and left, and I don't know if I missed it, but I never see those horses win the Derby. A lot seem to end up in the middle of the field. Wasn't Saarland one of them? Who are we looking at this year to fill that role?


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