I want to make a clarification on an earlier statement I made, when I referred to different pace dynamics that RA will be facing in the 'perhaps wishful thinking' Travers. I also mean't race dynamics. Ie. possible jostling about, possible larger field of colts, possible jocky intimidation, and traffic. In short a different set of dynamics to her previous races. I think this is a significant point and thought it worthy to mention so that there is no misunderstanding.

I get it, so what you're saying is that a filly who's perfect on the year, has beaten males twice, scored in a field of 13, has an on the pace running style that keeps her free from trouble and a jockey who cut his teeth at bush tracks in Louisiana is susceptible to all types of hypthetical trip problems. Gotcha.

And if through some confluence of events making all the things you mentioned above happen then a horse who has basically one race of consequence which was run at a distance that suited him to a T can reverse a decision in which he was beaten like a drum by the filly in question. Gotcha.

Look, it's OK if you're gonna bet against Rachel Alexandra, really it is. I'd just suggest you say you're gonna bet against her instead of coming up with some of these ridiculous scenarios that could lead to her defeat.

NT

But that's what we do in this game, we look for reasons to make cases to make money in this game. Taking the personal feelings out of it there are certain rationales we could apply to handicapping. On paper there is no reason to run this race, but to use an overused analogy "races are rarely run on paper." I'm not even sure this would be a worthwhile betting race without Rachel in it, but from strictly a monetary point of view this is an interesting test for her if not all the horses in the field. The only way this race could be better is to have the The Pampelmousse and IWR were in it. This has the makings of one of the more interesting races in a long time for bettors, handicappers and fans alike.

Imagine this, a trip handicapper symposium consisting of:

1) CSC
2) Bobby Fischer
3) Eric Donovan
and
4) Classhandicapper (over at PA)

#1, hit a very fortuitous $25.80 winner in BEL and has been doing his best Stevie Belmont impersonation since. Give it a rest, BRO. At least act like you hit a double digit horse every so often.

#2, is busy developing his own trip handicapping style, which consists of noting what the jock is doing at a given point in the race, with no regard to how the horse actually runs

#3, is the founding father of the Horse Psychology Trip Handicapping Method, making it a point to note every little thing that happens to a horse in a race and whether or not the horse was COMFORTABLE during the running. This style of tripping requires that every sentence consists of countless reference to 'inside", 'behind', 'steadied', 'checked', 'didn't want to be there', etc. I'll never forget the look on Crist's face on the DRF show the 1st time that Donovan started with this BS. It was PRICELESS.

#4, has spent the past 3 years trying to fine tune his defense of the position that Bernardini was NOT moved prematurely by Castellano in the BC and that Invasor was best. Most recently, he spent the good part of an evening trying to convince me that Al Khali got the worst of it tripwise against Courageous Cat in the race at BEL. After CC bent AK over when they met again at SAR, he was still at it, trying to get me to see the error of my ways.:rolleyes:


A nice helping of STFD and STFU would be in order for the 4 gentlemen. Yet, they must be heard.

P.S. 3 of the 4 are sucking my iggy and the 4the gets muted before being allowed to commence. Just so much nonsense even the most devoted handicapper needs to be subjected to in a given day.

Well atleast I'm me ahead of Eric Donovan.

That made my day...

So you're saying she'd be a cinch in the Travers?

Regardless of how impressive her last two efforts were, there's no question in my mind that the Travers would be her most challenging assignment to date. Quality Road is probably the most talented male in this crop. Even if he's not up to winning this off one prep race, he plays a huge role in the outcome of the race. With a legitimate pace (very likely with Our Edge and Quality Road), the race could set up for either of the Birds if they run their "A" race. In particular, I agree with Freddy that Summer Bird should be expected to improve significantly off his Haskell. He pressed the pace, not his most effective running style, on the worst part of the Monmouth track on Haskell Day. And it's not like Rachel beat Mine That Bird "like a drum" in the Preakness. The added distance and more quality speed (as opposed to Big Drama who, with only one 2009 start and various pre-race antics, was done at the half-mile pole in the Preakness) could certainly aid his cause, if he's 100% after last week's surgery.

I wasn't referring to her beating MTB like a drum but Summer Bird. I think the excuses about Summer Bird's trip at Monmouth have some validity but everyone's forgetting that he gamely held on over a stretched-out sprinter, a confirmed mediocrity in Papa Clem and Duke of Mischief.

I never said the Travers was a foregone conclusion, not in any way, shape or form. I am certainly willing to listen to anybody who wants to bet against her, but excuses like, she might get into trouble, her jockey might be intimidated, or she might race in traffic are kind of a waste of time in my opinion.

Let me just say this as well, I've been a Quality Road guy since shortly after the third race on November 29 last year, but everyone is putting him on this monstrous pedestal and I really think he could be in line to be very disappointing in the Travers. A 10 furlong race 2nd off an injury-induced layoff is a tall order. I hope we can see him and Rachel square off.

NT

We certainly agree on that.

Just to clarify, I didn't mean Borel would be intimdated, which would be a ridiculous statement. Anyone who has seen Calvin ride knows he is the anthesisis of Mike Smith. What I mean't is she is obviously the horse most if not all the Jockies are watching and it wouldn't be a stretch if she is the marked horse in the field, an example of this happening was what happened to Cigar when Nakatani put Dramatic Gold into the race to beat him, which is certainly a possibilty next Saturday if we get what we all want to see.

What's ironic is that back in the good old days, these horses would win on a regular basis for Pletcher. They'd stretch out and run HUGE. They'd get the worst trips and run HUGE. I really appreciated Kent sending SB and punishing Munnings, and, of course, Pletcher, around the track. Put a nice smile on my face. Kent is good when it comes to things of this sort. I can imagine Pletcher wondering during/after the race what he did to deserve not being able to 'step' these horses up, like he once did.

I understand and certainly concur that this is a valid point.

I found Bailey's insight about Cigar in his interview on TVG Legends a couple of years ago really interesting. When talking about the Pacific Classic Bailey admitted that he asked Cigar to do something even he was not capable of, which was to hook Siphon and stay on.

The funny thing about that, which I thought of right away, was that did Bailey really think Cigar was not capable of running down Siphon simply because Geri was unable to in the Hollywood Gold Cup? Did Bailey think that little of him? Not that Siphon was bad but it made you wonder what type of connection they had.

On the other hand, I think Borel knows exactly what Rachel's capable of and the thing about her is that she's gone about her business in a more impressive day with each passing start. She has shown such an incredible new dimension in her last two starts by rating kindly and going exactly when she was asked.

NT

I totally disagree. I actually dont think people realize how good Quality Road is. I pray she runs, because I will then bet QR as hard as I have ever bet a horse, with full confidence that he is flat out better then her.

So Bobby Fischer.............bet you are real happy you stuck up for The Fatman huh ? It is beyond hysterical that you stick up for the fatman, then the guy completely trashes you. Holy Sh#t is that great. Ya just can't make this stuff up.


You really deserve a prize for your performance on here......maybe a car with the engine removed.......a bicycle with square wheels......I thought maybe even a heater, but I figured you lived on the sun and already owned a few.

Fat's is a smart dude. BF is ok 2. I think Fats is just messing around.

Instead of dicking around and quoting longterm inhabitants of my iggy bin, you might want to go over to Calracing.com and watch the headon of yesterday's last race at SAR, and learn something. You'll get a good view of how a jock uses HERDING to win a race. What's funny, actually not, is that while the NYRA stewards were busy looking at the tape to subsequently DQ the 3 place finisher (or whatever), we were treated to repeated views of Chavez switching to lefty whip and coming out to HERD, and thus hold off, the chalk. Nothing like selectively determining when not keeping a straight path is grounds for a DQ. This is a pretty embarrassing display of incompetence/inconsistency. But we're learned to deal with it.

I can imagine Donk to Johnny V after the race: "She hung, huh Johnny?":rolleyes:

I have watched the replay and I get it now. I was live to 6,9 in the pick 3. Both for more then 1$. So I did take the time to watch.
You seem upset with me, wtf?

the fat man is just a guy who i happened to find online for something specific i wanted to learn. He doesn't know anything about me. I stand by what i said, it wasn't conditional.

What are you trying to learn ? That he doesn't like you and feels you have horrible capping capabilities.


That seems to be what you will get form the guy.

(I just picked thhis at random to use in my reply). As a betting oppportunity, I would rather see Kensei run than Rachael. Anyone agree?

it's really irrelevant what his opinion is, and i've never particularly valued his judgment of talent anyway. Whatever I happened to have wanted to learn I have since mastered.

Can you give me some examples of these stretched out sprinters on dirt that Pletcher use to win with back in the good old days? I use to bet against those types of his all of the time (with the exception of value plus which i will wear for eternity). Looking back, I dont remember many big races at all Pletcher would win stretching out.

edit- I looked it up on his website and it looks like only left bank could be considered a horse stretching out on dirt for Pletcher that ran big. Can you think of other horses that I am missing?

If you are of the opinion that Quality Road is being asked for too much, Kensei is going to be a halfway decent price.

Kensei will be the second choice, how is he not?

what?

I think he will be as well, MTB will be the third choice.

Dude sometimes I really don't know about you. You respond with what????
What odds do you expect if they run him instead of Rachel? I
thinking 3-1, 5-2 second choice.

yea we all agree that he will be 2nd choice.

which is a halfway decent price if you think quality road will quit.

whatever it's too late for semantic bullshit

exactly , which is why i was confused when you said "Kensei will be the second choice, how is he not?".
it sounded like you were disagreeing.

:tro:

I find some people's reaction to the Preakness hilarious. Rachel ran hard for 1 3/16ths that day and Mine That Bird ran hard for 3 furlongs that day. She's 5 times the horse MTB/Summer Bird/Munnings/anyone she's faced are. I would like to see her and Quality Road at 1 1/8th... though I think she would win by 5 again.. she may only be twice the horse QR is..

the ONLY reason MTB was so close that day is she had to set some big time fractions and put away some real good sprinters (Big Drama) before MTB got within 15 feet of her at the wire.

You'll occasionally get a selection in the daily thread that will run dfl.

I remembering watching that at the OTB and my first reaction was Bailey made the right move, I read his book also and I thought he was simply protecting Cigar to no fault of his. Obviously he loves this horse but being a Cigar admirer, I firmly believed he lost a step in 96. He was a great horse though, as honest as the higher power has ever made.

Put me down for not agreeing that Kensei will be the 2nd choice.
I am sure Mine that Bird will be.

Kensei may even go as 4th choice behind Summer Bird.

From what I hear Wooley is going home a winner regardless of how Mine That Bird runs considering all of the "action" he is rumored to be getting. :D

Lol
True.....

:D thats my boy!

I only talked to him for a short amount of time but he seemed like the most down to earth dude at Siro's. and I just :{>: :{>: his belt buckle.. wanted to take a pic of it and him and his buddy thought i just wanted a picture with him... so I got a pic with him & was slightly embarrassed (or not drunk enough) to ask if I could take a pic of his belt so I didnt..

You don't strike me as the easily embarrassed type! LOL

lol... true.

Well I wasnt drunk yet and it didnt seem right aiming my phone camera at his crotch... not sure if we was married or not.. lol

Originally Posted by Gander
The HOF didnt seem to matter in the West Virginia Derby, Smith didnt time it right at all. Borel gave him a crappy ride in the Belmont. Time before that Smith again didnt give the horse a chance (Preakness).

What makes you so sure a guy not in the HOF like Chavez or Lezcano couldnt do any better aboard this horse? Give me a break, its not like this horse has been give good rides and just come up short.
[b]
I'd like to see what Mike Smith could do day to day riding in NY.


[B]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ARyan My guess is below Mike Luzzi, slightly above Morales[/

Talk about being clueless:zz: ..Mike Smith wins Pac Classic on Baffert's 24-1 Richard's Kid

You have no idea of how big of a star he is. I was at Ruidoso yesterday for the All-American Futurity and the post-parade by Mine That Bird. The guy was a rockstar. They had a booth of actual Mine That Bird memorabilia, and he was not standing right by it, but close by, and there was a line of people standing around to get a picture with him. The only thing bigger than the grin on his face was the drink in his hand all day.

My question now, though, is how much longer are the crutches going to be with him? Are they going to be a permanent prop?

It was a great win for Mike Smith, but was it really all that great of a ride? The horse had tons coming down the stretch and the only horse that wasnt gasping was Einstein.