Birdstone broke his maiden at the Spa, and I think it was in the mud.

What about the Travers? Fast track?

Eric

He did. I think that the PP's will still show a fast track. It didn't start pouring until after the race, but I think the track was off before and during. After the race, I saw an ark float by.

Eric

Let's remember who said here that Birdstone didn't like the mud.

However, the confusion probably stems from the Lane's End, or whatever it was called that year, at Turfway, where they sealed the track shortly before the race.....and Birdstone ran poorly. I believe Nick was publically unhappy about them sealing the track before a big race.

maybe zito was just pissed that they sealed it that day birdstone ran up the track. i believe that was the case...

and ya beat me to it...i think they held off sealing it til just beforehand. seems like the skies kept getting darker and darker. i know zito was incredibly angry about it.

I was there that day as well. Not exactly slop though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4N9rcZpVEI

We touched on this in a thread you started 2 weeks ago in I believe titled synthetic converter, regardless with synthetic surfaces assigning and comparing numbers to horses that run on diifferent surfaces is not be as accurate(I use that word tepidly) as when horses used to race exclusively on dirt. Theoretically Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, and Papa Clem would have been the most logical Beyer finish, but it didn't happen, then I don't understand why we should say IWR, QR and Old Fashioned I am assuming he is the third horse would have been 1-1A-3 today if they ran.

Was it Birdstone or another one of Nick's who threw a shoe?

Eric

anyone looking to explain the finish today is up against it. this race is an aberration. no one, in a million years, would have ever come up with mine that bird as the winner today. no way, no how. it happens sometimes that a horse runs well for whatever reason. off track could explain the results of todays race. that alone may not be the reason-hell, there may be no reason. just like there's no reason a 100-1 shot won the travers, or a horse like seek gold or colonial colony wins a gr 1. or black seventeen winning for that matter... folks take an odd result as gospel and bet a horse like mad the next time out. and the next...and so on. some times you have an inexplicable result, today being one of those times. several belmonts in recent memory are others.

I'm not sure whether the beyers failed as poorly as any other method of handicapping but I would like to know why this crop WAS considered eons stronger than last year's before the Derby and after today I read descriptions of "mediocrity" right and left.
Obviously QR And IWR are nice horses so besides them who makes this crop so much stronger than last years crop if the remaining runners in today's race are mediocre?

You and your fancy video technology...:rolleyes:

two nice horses would definitely be stronger than what we had last year as far as three year olds. but we have three at least, counting rachel. still plenty of time left to see how things go...
but today's derby was a lackluster event compared to what we were facing just a week or two ago.

I think it was The Cliff's Edge in the Derby.

Don't horses throw shoes all the time?

A Speed figure - if accurate - only tells you how fast a horse ran final time wise given the inherent speed of the race track.

IWR and QR ran extremely fast races without smoke and mirorrs. Genuine great performances.

FF had one perfect trip after another. I liked Pioneer of the Nile better than him and picked him above FF. And even though FF's form is overrated he ran way too bad to be believed today. Something happened.

Dunkirk figured to get his education today - and I certainly don't believe he's as much horse as Quaility Road right now. He ran too bad to be true and will bounce back as well.

Birdstone threw a shoe in the Derby and still finished 8th. He also won the Travers on a surface much like Churchill was today.

Both of them did.

One lost two shoes the other just one.

i think it was devils bag that threw two in a race, and won anyway. then he ran again, and threw one, and won. i figured they should just pull them for good and let him have at it, but they never did.

I am still puzzled why no one had posted there
were only two good horses this year. And since
they both would not be running, the Derby would
be awful.

Weather...
A huge silly afterthought.

The winner would have gotten em
on any surface since he won so easily.
We will of course see
this two weeks from now.

i threw a shoe at my husband, but he didn't run a step.

A bigger mystery is how he went off at only 50-1, as if we had enough of derby myths, no dirt wins, gelding, 81 beyer top, no name trainer(never heard of the guy until today), obviously someone bet him, should have been 100-1.

Would have thrown in the 2 prep rule but that has long been debunked.

i doubt anyone even knew he was a gelding. i didn't pay one bit of attention to him going in. did anyone?
maybe people who bet him mistook him for summer bird-it happened last year when people bet big truck instead of big brown.

Because after Giacomo no longshots seem to go off at their " correct " odds in the win pool. He was closer to his appropriate odds ( 150:1ish ) in the exotic pools.

I didn't even think of this till now, but the RA with all in the derby/oaks double must have been a big payoff. Travis touched on that this week if a longshot came in for the latter part of the double.

YES. I was hoping some one would seize the joke. I was setting it up for someone. Bravo.

Which makes the Preakness an even more interesting race IF they run, many answers to questions we(I) need answered.

the joke has been played for two years, thats why no one really replied.

The poster who ever so cleverly fell for it has, apparently, been busy for the last two years.

Papa Clem really threw in a clunker. Had an absolute dream trip and was bullied out of 2nd and 3rd. I call it the Gary Stute lean.

He is an ok horse, the best two horses in socal got hurt, and the third best only won a mdn before getting hurt.

Dunkirk was my pick and It is likely he has more upside than all but the "other" bird horse but it certainly isn't inconceivable that anyone in today's race could come back in the Preakness and run huge.As a matter of fact it was just a few years ago that a lightly raced horse got an education in the derby and came back to nose out the Derby winner in the Preakness after getting crushed in the Derby.

So with similar reasoning in which many experts used to answer the question "who is the horse that will show improvement going from synthetic to dirt for the first time" and answer "I'm not sure but if you do choose one don't take the short price" then Summer Bird rather than Dunkirk should be the choice over Calvin Borail in the Preakness.
future Preakness result
1-Summer Bird by nose over
2-Mine that Bird by (indeterminate at this time) over
3-POTN (equates to Hard Spun only in finishing position from derby to preakness) (If I remember correctly without looking)

Maybe I missed something in the story along the way, but I don't understand why brisnet.com had Richard Mandella
listed as the trainer of Mine That Bird the day prior to the post position draw.

Here's the link, in case it still works:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/si...es/dby4-23.pdf

Agree wholeheartedly with Blackthroatedwind. If Mine That Bird DOES NOT win the race, the final time would have been in the 2:03.40 range - awful.

I'm absolutely baffled at how the track remained sloppy the entire day. There was no rain over the eight hour period from opening changes to the Derby...and it still looked like there was standing water on the track. Compared to last year - even though there was sun on Saturday, there was a TON of rain on Friday, and all through the night, and the track was fast by mid-card.

there were very strong winds that year that helped dry the track out. Today there was no sun and no wind

He should've been 500-1. People who bet him to win got jipped majorly.

Mine That Bird beat Advice in Sunland....would anyone have been as shocked if Advice won??? Maybe those Sunland figures really aren't accurate. Good horses run at Sunland almost never, so maybe something just got messed up when calculating those speed figures.