Sending horses to Dubai for the winter has already proven to be a failed experiment. If they happen to win one KY Derby it will not erase all the mistakes they have made in the past. Their blunders are what is impressive about their organization ( as it relates to American racing ). Not running Ruler's Court in the BC Juvenile ( when did he next race? ) should go in the HOF. Who knows what Street Cry might have done had he remained in training in the US. Worldly Manner may well have only been a miler, but he hardly disgraced himself in the Derby, and who knows what he might have done had he been handled differently. And this is with no research, and off the top of my head, thus I am sure there are others.

Yes, much of it has to do with poor purchases ( Linny's reminder of Comeonmom was the coup de gras ), but their tactics certainly haven't helped. Remember something else, they haven't even come close to succeeding in our TC contests with their plan.

What, you mean horses like Secretariat and Slew?

Huh?

Sorry, I'm on a laptop and I get lazy typing on these things.

What I meant was in response to you saying they had used the wrong types of horses for their great plans to conquer the derby.

When I said Secretariat and Slew, that was meant to ask if those were the right kinds of horses they need for their plan. You know, the immortal great kinds.

Certainly, those kinds of horses would help. But I don't think they need them to be that good. I just don't think they've had more than a couple that were probably the kind that would be considered legit contenders, no matter where they spent the winter. I just don't feel like it's right to say something has failed when it's only had a couple of real chances to succeed. Personally, I feel like it's more logical to say Pletcher is a failure than Sheikh Mo. He's had more chances, he gets great stock, and he doesn't have them winter in Dubai so they take traditional American routes to get there and yet he's still winless. But I don't think he's a failure either. I think in both cases, it just hasn't happened yet. I feel that if Sheikh Mo had spent $5k instead of $5 million on his horses, they wouldn't be looked at as failures. They would be looked at as cheap horses that didn't amount to much and I don't think that because he's got tons of money and spends it like crazy should change the fact that most of those horses he's bought wouldn't have had a chance no matter how much they cost or where they were trained. I think his failure has been in evaluating the horses. That much we can all agree on.

You are going to have to clarify something for me....

Either he is the absolute worst judge of horseflesh that will ever exist in this game or sending horses to Dubai to prep for the TC series is a poor idea. It can't be both....or neither.

The Sheik has bought the most expensive and well bred yearlings for over 25 years. He has bought the best broodmares available. He has gobbled up as many top 2YOs as he could. Yet, nothing has worked. He didn't spend $5K, or $5 million....he spent hundreds of millions persueing Anerican Classic hopefuls. And, yet, it hasn't worked. So, what is it.

Todd Pletcher has had far less talent in his hands, and accomplished a great deal more in America, than the Sheik. He is a raging success, compared to most everyone, and certainly the Sheik, in this country.

My argument has never been that going to Dubai for the winter is the best way of doing it. I've only debated those that say that it will never work. I don't see any reason why it can't. If I was presented with facts that said horses wintering over there end up worse off than their American counterparts, I'd listen. But just as easily as someone can point out how Ruler's Court was injured and never lived up to his promise, I can point out War Pass. Just as they can mention a Street Cry, I can mention a Java Gold. I just don't happen to agree that a lot of horses come back worse than they go. I think most of them weren't much in the first place so I didn't expect them to come back and be better. What I think is a bigger issue than WHERE they are trained is HOW they are trained. The Sheikhs have had an abundance of success in Europe. They still have success in Europe with horses they winter in Dubai. I feel like part of the problem is that they try to apply some of the same training principles to win American races as they do Europeans ones and that doesn't work out too well.

I don't see why it can't be some of both. He takes bad purchases and combines it with not giving them every advantage to win. Really good horses can overcome things. Average or bad ones can't.

Of course Pletcher has had much more success here than the Sheikh has. But not when it comes to the Derby.

If they were cheap and he won anything I'd say good on him, but they are not cheap. Much of what he's bought and raised (Comeonmom notwithstanding) has been very valuable bloodstock, whether he over paid for it or not. Several of his horses might have had a shot had they stayed in the US, as Bernardini did. Don't you think that Sheik Mo's only US classic winner would have made him re-evaluate his plan to get to the "biggest classic?" Had Bernardini gone to Dubai would he have won the Preakness? Would he have made it back? The lesson of history says "NO" pretty emphatically.
If he'd kept some of these horses in the US with trainers who know more about US racing than Saeed bin Suroor he might have had a shot. He takes a bunch of elite dirt bred colts to Europe every season to race over the bogs of Ascot and York when they could be winning the Hopeful and the Champagne and the Florida Derby and yes, maybe even the KY Derby.

As far as Pletcher, yes he's has plenty of shots but several of them were sprinter/milers with ambitious owners looking to be wined and dined in Louisville and honestly, how many years has he really tried. This year (2008) was only about his 5th try, albeit with about 10 horses each season.:rolleyes: Sh. Mo has been after this for a decade and as Andy points out, instead of Louisville in May, he keeps getting Ozone Park in November.

Really? Has the Sheik hit the board in the KY Derby?

The point isn't that he's failed, it's that he has failed miserably, year after year. A huge percentage of the horses he sends to Dubai to prep for American races don't show up until Saratoga, at the earliest. He's not even coming close.

But, you now suggest it's a combination of both, but this belies your initial post in this thread, as do some of your other remarks....



So, can you please clarify it all for me now, and tell me which posts represent your true opinion on this. They can't all do that.

I don't think that saying that he's not giving them every advantage is the same as saying it's a disadvantage. And again, I'm not saying that he couldn't have more success doing it our way instead of his. My argument has been with those that automatically write off the chances of those that are sent over there saying it can't be done. I think it can but only with the right horse.

I'm still confused........

It feels contradictory but whatever.

i just don't like the way his left-front looks when he strides.

goldolphin bashing aside :p

no but i've stayed at a holiday inn express
 

take a look at the head ons from the calracing replays. Watch the left front during the stretch runs.

i'll post a .gif or something if i get a chance

Not giving them every advantage IS a disadvantage. Not giving them every advantage = going to Dubai. Look at Shadwell. Shiek Hamdan, Mo's bro., he has had much more success here winning a bc classic, the belmont and having two horses recently win eclipse awards.
Shiek Mo's whole focus is proving he can have a horse trained in Dubai and then win the Derby. He gobbles up every two year old that wins impressively. Yet, where has he been in the classic races? You are a fan who has been "rooting for this" for awhile. I've learned that being a fan can really distort your objectivity. It sure does mine. If he does win the derby this way, it is going to have to be a horse like Secretariat/Slew. But I wonder, how many has he had that might have been THE HORSE already.

i think that one thing darley ignores is shipping...we all know that shipping can be hard on a horse, and they do it often, with young stock. they buy here, spend time in quarantine, and then travel. and then a few months later, do it again-while trying to prepare for what is probably the toughest race they'll ever attempt.
perhaps if they concentrated on getting good horses and doing right by them, instead of trying to make the horses fit their mold, they'd have a better thing going each spring. you have to follow the horses cues if you want good results.
blues and royals a few years back was one of their most promising horses. he missed all three classics from illness after shipping here from dubai, eventually succumbing to shipping fever. yet they continue to try. why? seems counter-productive.
but then...he buys horses here to ship to dubai for their carnival-that hasn't worked too well either. how's thor's echo these days?

I have sen all but VH's debut and not seen anthing strange. Besides I would get that Frankel vetted him and that Sheik MO did the same. Unless you have more data and experience that Sh. Mo's vets, it's not worthy of comment.

Actually, Frankel said publically that he didn't vet him before buying him. However, I'm quite sure the Sheik did.....especially after he consulted with Fischer.

i could make a lot of wealthy kings more wealthy and more successful in their hobbies...
:D



...but this seeing a 3 legged horse is nothing special.

But can't you say that Godolphin has been relatively successful wintering their European campaigners in Dubai prior to the start of the regular Euro season?

Shieks brother's spending spree
 

Per DRF

Maybe he is hoping one will work out so he can have one decent stallion standing at Shadwell?

As far as whether or not they (Darley) are buying "the right kind of horse" -- well, that could be a debate that goes on and on forever. The results can only speak to one conclusion. Regardless and aside from the horses, I think it's a valid question as to whether or not it's a good idea to have 2yo's here in the US, ship them overseas, prep them over there, and then bring them back for the Derby or TC. I think it's hard enough to win the Derby regardless of where and how you try it, and doing it the Darley way appears to make it substantially tougher.

My take is that even if a horse comes a long and does it -- that doesn't add any more credibility to the position that it's a good idea. Just because one horse does it, doesn't make it a good idea. Possible vs. feasible vs. effective? Perhaps.

I guess wanting to do it "his way" is just as good a reason as any -- for him that is.

Eric

They have been reasonably successful in Europe but they have a "season" where we don't. Apart from some minor regional stuff on PolyTrack, there is not racing over the winter. The season goes from April to October. In April a Euro horse coming up to the big races has been away for a few months followed by legging up and possibly a start before the Guineas, the first Classic. Many of the horses in the Guineas are making their seasonal debut. They are all at the same disadvantage in terms of lack of racing and all make the classics in about the same manner.
Here we begin the 4 month run-up to the Derby on Jan 1st. By the time we get to the Derby our colts have several races often tough "character builders" in advance of the big day.
While you can win British classics "off the farm" it has not worked here in the modern era.

This is sort of what I was referring to earlier when I said that it might be as much about how they are trained as it is where. The vast majority of the success that the Dubai owners have had has been in Europe and perhaps out of habit, they have had a hard time adjusting to the differences needed to prepare a horse for racing in the United States as opposed to Europe. In addition to the things you listed above, there also is the different style of racing. American dirt racing is slanted more towards speed than European grass racing. It's a totally different style of training needed to win the different types of races. One that they obviously haven't mastered as far as American racing goes.

I think it is a very valid question and as said earlier, by no means am I saying that there is no difference or that it's the best way. I was only reacting to those that automatically wrote off Vineyard Haven's chances and said that the Dubai way will never work. I think it can and will and when it does, the so called "Dubai Curse" will go the way of the "Juvenile Jinx" and the belief that a horse can't win with only two starts. There will obviously have to be some adjustments made by the Dubai outfit. What those changes have to be, I don't know. I just feel that there are other reasons why it hasn't happened other than the fact that they are shipping to Dubai.

excellent post

Well, I took your question to suggest that it was ridiculous to prep a horse in the US with an eye towards a race in Europe.

In the same vein, it sounds just as ridiculous to prep a horse in Dubai with an eye towards a race in Europe, yet it seems to work well for them.

My point was that both situations don't really have anything to do with prepping a horse in Dubai with an eye towards the Derby.

Yep. But at the same time, when the Dubai horses came over here to run in the Derby, didn't they all have a couple of prep races? They weren't exactly coming to Churchill Downs "off the farm".

I think other factors are more at play here for their horrendous failure.

They had run in the UAE Derby and Guineas. Those races can be tough (like this year, Cocoa Beach was 3rd in the Derby) and they are also not placed that well on the calendar.
Horse that ran well in either of the two have flopped in KY and those that ran poorly behind top class Southern Hemisphere colts and fillies (Asiatic Boy last year) have even less shot. They don't usually make it at all.
The other option is essentially "allowance" races for horses classified at up to 110lbs, which they run often at the Carnival. The problem is that those races are too easy. They don't get you ready for KY either. Meanwhile the best US colts are training hard and facing off in Florida, Cali, Louisiana and even NY.
The point is that yes, they have had success in Europe in the spring, but not THAT much and not with Dubai based horses. Again I say "that much" because they own much of the best bloodstock on earth. Also, if they have done well there, not here you have to look at the differences between the two places (US vs Europe) and try to find reasons.

That makes plenty of sense. But that's more a situation like the one in 2003 when Outta Here, an American-trained and raced horse, prepped for the Kentucky Derby by shipping to run in the UAE Derby.

What's not being mentioned is that the entire Godolphin band of horses, 3yos and older, are sent to Dubai. Winter in Dubai is the game plan for all their horses, not just 3yos targeting the Kentucky Derby. Its analagous (on a much larger scale) to old-time stables like Rokeby wintering their horses in Aiken, or WH Perry or Phipps stables sending horses to Santa Anita for the winter. They're there for several months.

In and of itself, I don't think this "regrouping" method is a bad idea. Where probably most of the problem lies, as opposed to the switch in locale--though obviously the long ship can easily knock out some horses--, is the switch in training/management (which is the plight of nearly all their 2yos). Not that the Suroor guy sucks, it just seems to be an untimely point in their careers to changing up the training program on developing horses. Its almost like the horses, being in new hands, have to start from scratch (this is what allegedly happened to Ruler's Court). It would be interesting to see how things would have played out if Eoin Harty and David Loder stayed on as head trainers for their strings while in Dubai.

Most of the failures of Godolphin to win the Kentucky Derby has been because they haven't shown up for the race, not because their horses have run like sh!t in it. In fact, the few horses they have started have given fairly decent accounts of themselves (Worldly Manner, China Visit, Express Tour). In addition, perhaps their two classiest candidates, Street Cry and Aljabr, were injured just days before the Derby.

Yep. It'd be better though--if they're intent on doing it their way--to do it with the horses they developed from the get-go, not top 2yos that they cherry-picked (or ones they happened to have handed to them-- in the case of Midshipman) at the end of the year.