In this case, it is. I go back and watch replays all the time, as much as you like to assume I don't.

Maybe I'll try and change the subject....

Dick Jerardi's column talks about the "light" Beyer for BB's Preakness. He mentioned that BB was eased in the throttle late by Kent.

But then to quote..."Would the colt have run faster if Desormeaux asked? Possibly. But the numbers are the numbers. If you believe, you believe. [in the numbers].

Possibly??? The horse is clearly geared down - aggressively even. Is he trying to tell us that we should take the 100 at its face? It could have been much higher right? Am I crazy in thinking this?

I don't agree with this at all. I watched the Preakness again just yesterday and Kent shook him up pretty hard into the lane and only geared him down very late. I sincerely doubt he slowed him down much at all.

But he was so boxed in...
Unfairly.
It really Edgar's fault.

some "BS" from BF
------------------

Anak Nakal... Sure seems to lack the talent... would need pace AND distance to be a BIG factor in his favor for top 3 finish. ... possible

-Derby Trip ... no real reason to watch AN's again (because he is a known quantity with like 95% chance that he didn't show a newfound talent) However = will have to watch it before the belmont

- Big Brown \ gearing down


The time that Big Brown may or may not have lost occured on the backstretch. Not the stretch. If Kent would have asked him right out of the 1st turn, and tried to win by 25 lengths --> then you see whether or not Big Brown could have run significantly faster.

gearing down late in the stretch does little for final time.

Anyone got the sire and dam lineage for Da Tara? Are Deputy Minister or Mr Prospector in the first two generations on either side?

Nope: http://www.pedigreequery.com/da+tara

Not that I know the significance of that. . .

It's tough to follow since he's off the screen most of the race but I didn't see anything of note either, other than being somewhat wide late. Looked like he ran his normal plodding race.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit the board in the Belmont, however, reminds me a lot of a couple other Zito runners that have recently, Royal Assault and Andromeda's Hero, that just grind, grind, grind.

What's going down with Spark Candle? Are they going to wait til the last minute?

Aside from the fact that he was physically dropped in Kentucky, that horse is a California bred through and through. The 2nd dam is one of Martin Wygod's top broodmares.

Yup . . . she's a very good producer . .

Not that there is a whole bunch of love for this horse but David Grening (sp?) said on Raceday America that Tomcito is out. He is experiencing some sort of reaction, no other details were given.
I just thought you all would want to know...:D

According to insiders, Tomcito is allergic to stakes caliber horses.:p

http://www.drf.com/news/article/95093.html

And Spark Candle to the Hill Rise.. 8 expected to face Big Brown..

The last 3/16ths were in 17ish he was flying

I laughed....:D :D

too bad , Tomcito was going to take a tiny bit of dumb money and add to pretty much every payout.

Velazquez now on Ready's Echo, Leparoux gets call on Anak Nakal.

i know . man was i scared of tomcito............lol

Who sets the pace?

whoever decides to set the pace.... (if it were me) I would be in it to steal it... Kent's instructions have to be ... don't let a loose horse go to the front... keep him within range... maybe two out... no one in this race can match the burst that BB has... the only chance anyone has is to outgame him... watch any late works for someone trying to get the early jump on this bunch....

Da' Tara.

Could be. I wonder if Dutrow and Desormeaux are against setting the pace?

I would be. Big Brown seems to be pretty smart and mature, but I wouldn't risk having him get aggressive if someone comes to him early.

Is anyone picking Casino Drive outright over Brown or at least splitting your win slot fairly equally?

Ive got Brown to win on at least 90% of my win slot.

Casino Drive and Macho Again taking up the bulk of slots 2,3,4..

11th (6:25) Belmont S. (G1)

1 1/2 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 Big Brown Desormeaux K J 126 L
2 Guadalcanal Castellano J J 126
3 Macho Again Gomez G K 126 L
4 Denis of Cork Albarado R J 126 L
5 Casino Drive Prado E S 126
6 Da' Tara Garcia Alan 126 L
7 Tale of Ekati Coa E M 126 L
8 Anak Nakal Leparoux J R 126 L
9 Ready's Echo Velazquez J R 126 L
10 Icabad Crane Rose J 126 L

i do

Kiss of death.

I am playing one $10 trifecta key ticket:

Casino Drive

Over

Da Tara

Big Brown

You simply can't make any money in the rwce unless you beat the superstar

I strongly disagree.

You know it is an exciting race when only two days out the sub-headline is still "Tomcito out".

I'm thinking of playing something like this:

$5 tri

Big Brown
with
Denis of Cork, Anak Nakal
with
Denis of Cork, Anak Nakal, Casino Drive, Tale of Ekati

A healthy Big Brown kills this field.

Unless you are going to invest a lot of money, how are you getting any value payoffs with Big Brown on top?

Big Brown
Denis Of Cork
Casino Drive

Tri pays about $30 for $2

not that he worries, but does anyone think Dutrow is worried about breaking on the rail with a maiden to his right who could be a basket case by post time?

If that happens you will make nothing.

disagree, it pays atleast 70 in that order.

You are absolutely out of your mind. Thats is 1/5, 10-1, 3-1

Thats pays $30 if you are lucky

No chance in hell. Might not even pay $70 with Anak Nakal in third.

I think that order still paysd $70 for $2....... not for sure betting this, just throwing it out there to get opinions like this.