Originally Posted by jms62

Here is the deal.. Haskin knows more about horses and racing than most on this thread combined. He was getting dissed. I simply pointed out that the last 2 years he has had some observations during derby week on training that helped sway me back onto horses that I was considering tossing out at the top of my ticket thats all. These juveniles than proceeded to assume that my entire source of handicapping was based on what Steve said... They also bashed my thoughts on an immediate throw out of the juvenile champ (cept last year) irrespective of the fact that it worked some 20 odd imes in a row. There are some that basically simply attack every post that is put on these boards it somehow validates who they are. My fault for getting into a pissing contest. I'm done on the topic.

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I give Haskin a lot of credit for being somewhat creative and not just landing on one of the 2-3 favorites.

Mostly, I give him credit for a write up devoid of strings of Speed Figures.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You don't think there are far more creative horses who will be far bigger prices than Monba?

People who think he won't attract a good deal of money will probably be proven wrong.

Originally Posted by Split Rock

Love it Steve. Here is my take:

Kentucky Derby winner: COURT VISION
Kentucky Derby bust: MONBA

Court Vision
Positives:
1) Bred to be a monster. Gulch is one of my all time favorite sires (and runners). He is the sire of many, many good stakes runners, including 1995 Derby winner, Thunder Gulch (who, by the way, was out of a Storm Bird mare, like Court Vision and was out of the money in his final prep, the Blue Grass). The dam, Weekend Storm, is a full sister to the lengendary Summer Squall and a half sister to the equally legendary A. P. Indy. Now, those are some awesome bloodlines.

2) Bill Mott. This guy is way overdue.

3) Won a graded stakes at CD as a two year old. Might like the track.

4) Showed heart and guts winning both the IRQ and the REMSON as a two year old. Need to watch the replay to see what I mean.

5) Late kick. I know some will say he is slow but this horse seems to have a 5th gear that is on display very late in his races. Watch the replays and you will see what I mean.

Negatives:
1) Couldn't run down a blistering pace in the Wood and came home in a somewhat slow time.


MONBA
Postives: None

Negatives: Drug testing much tighter for the Derby so Mr. Pletcher will not likely be able to arrive on site with his bag of goodies. If unsure of this look at his Derby record. It's blantantly obvious. Year in and year out, the super trainers s*#t the bed in the Derby with can't miss runners. Hard to believe the Zito fiasco a few years ago.

Finally, for those sheep that can't look beyond the winners of the prep races (and believe me, that accounts for 85% of the betting public):

Derby winners that lost their final prep:
2007: Street Sense (2nd in Blue Grass)
2005: Giacomo (off the board in SA Derby)
2001: Monarchos (2nd in Wood)
1999: Charasmatic (off the board in SA Derby)
1998: Real Quiet (2nd in SA Derby)
1997: Silver Charm (2nd in SA Derby)
1995: Thunder Gulch (off the board in Blue Grass)
1994: Go for Gin (off the board in Florida Derby)
1993: Sea Hero (off the board in Blue Grass)
1992: Lil E Tee (2nd in Arkansas Derby)
1990: Unbridled (3rd in Blue Grass)

5 of last 18 (28%) Derby winners missed the board in their last prep before the Derby.

Originally Posted by Split Rock

Drug testing much tighter for the Derby so Mr. Pletcher will not likely be able to arrive on site with his bag of goodies. If unsure of this look at his Derby record. It's blantantly obvious. Year in and year out, the super trainers s*#t the bed in the Derby with can't miss runners. Hard to believe the Zito fiasco a few years ago.

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Am I the only one who isn't buying this?

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Am I the only one who isn't buying this?

Originally Posted by hockey2315

And he still wins plenty of big races- Breeders' Cups, etc... How would Assmussen or Dutrow ever win the races they do if it was tougher to drug up their horses on the big days? Either these guys use things that aren't being detected or their top stock just doesn't need the stuff. . .

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Ranking him #1 when all the meaningful preps have been run basically says that and more.

Originally Posted by jms62

Meet up for a beer in toga when I get there for the Travers... We got off on a bad foot here and I'd like to buy you a beer to sooth over any ill will.

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Hey I hate your picks!!!.............what about a beer?

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

didn't a wise man say beer was the cause of and solution to all of lifes problems?

oh wait, that was Homer Simpson.

Originally Posted by SteveHaskin

I forgot to add Z Fortune as a potential live longshot; just not sure about his pedigree, but his Arkansas Derby reminded me a lot of Grindstone's and Lil E. Tee's. All opinions can, and likely will, change dramatically after I see the horses train and in the flesh. That's where you find most of your Derby winners, not in the past performances.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think this thread further supports the notion this crop is crazy, wide-open and hard to figure.

Z Fortune could be cycling towards a new top. If the Oaklawn figure is a bit high (there was a dicussion about this), then he realistically could be cycling back to a new top.

The problem with these horses is when a horse does put in an good effort, people act as if they are allergic to it, because we have seen so many average races in the big events all spring long.

Originally Posted by pb72vett

Peter B.I LIKE what they see and feel there more on the inside then us most, others seem to think best is chalk toplay,20 horses very hard for chalk to take small prices on last year was avery good time this year much has changed ,just as the market, step in STEVE BYKE also is derby in hydif.tv?

Originally Posted by pb72vett

Peter B.I LIKE what they see and feel there more on the inside then us most, others seem to think best is chalk toplay,20 horses very hard for chalk to take small prices on last year was avery good time this year much has changed ,just as the market, step in STEVE BYKE also is derby in hydif.tv?

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Hey I hate your picks!!!.............what about a beer?

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He is wiser than many

Originally Posted by slotdirt

As analyzed earlier, it didn't work 20-some odd years in a row because only 14 juvenile champs actually made the Derby starting gate. It's really tough taking a stand against a horse who isn't even competing in a given race.

Originally Posted by CSC

Doesn't last yrs crop of 3yr olds Curlin, Street Sense and Any Given Saturday tower over the 2008 crop at their same stage of development this yr?

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Absolutely...and the year before that. That's one of the reasons it's hard to make the "Big Brown/ Curlin 3 starts isn't enough" argument. As we know, Curlin turned into a great racehorse, but he still did manage 3rd with a troubled trip behind two that would trounce this field.

Originally Posted by sumitas

the Churchill strip has been much maligned. a dirt horse like High Yield never fired. countless others never did either. 2006 you had Sharp Humor who was in great position around the first turn. then he broke his knee cap - end of career. ya never know on that track but it's the same for all...