i know you're asking jcs, but i can't think of a race this year that pyro couldn't have won.

You're actually getting at a good point. Recapturetheglory was simply the quickest horse in a race that was completely devoid of early speed. He was allowed to dawdle in the early stages and had plenty left when the running started. However, it seems clear that if Recapturetheglory runs what seems to be his typical 1/4 and 1/2 mile then he will most likely find himself well off the pace. If he had a craftier jockey than ET Baird one might actually think he could get a good stalking spot in a race that is certainly going to have a fast pace. However, the likelihood of him stalking and pouncing effectively is extraordinarily low.

NT

Whether or not he can doesn't matter, it's that he'll try.

Agreed- That's all Baird knows how to do.

you guys are making it like he ran up the track or something, and the derby will be more like 22 45.2 1.09.3
rather the 22.2 46.1 1.11

in my mind that is a big difference

Court Vision is TERRIBLE. He has NO shot to win the derby.

we shall see
what kind of odds do you think im going to get ?

Provided neither connections are going to change tactics in the Derby, I see War Pass and Big Brown as being one dimensional. Both are also very fast. They could settle into a rhythm, which can happen when there are two horses on the lead as opposed to a battle, but so far neither have shown an ability to do that with another horse alongside of them. So if they do settle down a bit, then a horse like Recapturetheglory becomes a pace factor with their stated of intentions of going to the front.

But in the end, I just can't see Big Brown and War Pass on the front-end going :47 seconds to the half.

no one can except horsey.... i mean i keep saying 45 and change, but really they could go crazy 44 and change or 45 flat.

i wonder what the colonel john-court vision exacta will be paying.

what does it matter? the trick is to get odds on a horse that can win.

ok then he sits, someone goes with war pass, they wont let the 2 yr old champ go out and go 23-48, seeya

Good point. I think he's most effective having good pace presence, but if they do settle a bit, then yea, the pace could slowdown a touch. So many jocks are War Emblem-shy though. When someone tries to back-down in the Kentucky Derby, they react and take it to 'em. It's really difficult to win the roses wire-to-wire.

Totally agree D Hoss. I guess I don't see Big Brown as the need the lead speedball everyone else seems too. War pass should hold on longer if this is truly a weak crop. Bob Black Jack reminds me of Hard Spun more than the rest of these.

Hard Spun had more stamina in his pedigree but funny things happen on the track.

Especially on the 1'st sat. in May!!

$0.00

I'm out on that limb with you.

You are right. He'll be 25 lengths back and make a breathtaking run to get up for tenth.

woody
 

Pathetic for the horse/rider combo when you can't run down War Pass in a race like that. Clearly the target. You can forgive them if War Pass freaks on the lead. You can forgive them if any OTHER horse freaks for a big performance.
-It is unforgiveable to have War Pass run a sloppy-second, with a weak finish, and Court Vision comes gallupmfing up 1.25 lengths behind your MARK.


A better ride could have POSSIBLY had Court Vision more competitive in the Wood. Gomez was fashionably late to the party. Anybody's mother looking at the form could have said "you gotta expect Gomez to be a little closer to the pace than when he let it get away in the FOY..." but the adjustment didn't happen. However, that race was such a grade IV/Allowancen1x POS, that a "more competitive" possibility isn't a compliment in any way.

Damn War Pass and Tale of Ekati couldn't run 9 furlongs in 1:54 and change. Cost Court Vision the race...oh and that darned Gomez!!!

Fun da mental.

or just mental.

wuh pass run slow like

duh cut vih shun no catch up

go go no timey duh targut

it makey no difrunce

No it didn't make a difference. Jesus Christ couldn't get that plodder closer to the pace. You're just a sourpuss idiot.

how can I say objectively that CV's performance in the wood probably proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is a non-contender any time soon for a decent race... and that a length or two better of a ride would not have mattered because the quality of the race was so poor?

Somehow I keep coming off as a sourgrapes Court Vision fanatic:D

you could be right, Gomez may have given him the best possible ride. Fine. Unless you think the Wood was a great race, it was a really poor performance from court vision and war pass at 1.25 lengths ahead was also a poor performance. Tale of Ekati's performance at 1.75 lengths ahead of CV was also poor unless you have some theory that "just did enough to win" and therefore "had tons left". The race sucked. Someone had to run 1st 2nd or 3rd. Rides didn't matter, trips didn't matter

How much do people think Pyro's odds will change with an off the board finish in the Blue Grass? Pulpit's have done absolutely nothing on the synthetics so far so I'm not expecting much out of him on it. Will people really be dumb enough to dismiss him off a poor effort on the polycrap?

my guess is it will be taken almost to face value by the betting public.

I wouldn't be so quick writing off Pulpit on synthetic. Church Service, for one, has certainly been reborn on poly.
Though I am also hoping for an off-the-board finish Saturday.

A couple of years ago it would have had a huge effect. Everyone is now getting accustomed to differing form on dirt and poly, so although there would certainly be some new questions, Pyro would still be one of the top 3 choices if he ran a dull 4th.

There are always exceptions but overall it hasn't been too pretty.

2008 AW - 15 runners, 2 winners, 0 Stakes Winners - 13% winners
2008 All - 71 runners, 24 winners, 2 Stakes Winners - 34% winners

2007 AW - 51 runners, 17 winners, 1 Stakes Winner - 33% winners
2007 All - 145 runners, 78 winners, 10 Stakes Winners - 54% winners

Obviously one would expect more winners when all surfaces are used than just the synthetics but the difference in the numbers for Pulpit are a lot more pronounced than the difference in most other stallions and only one stakes winner is extremely weak. For instance Tiznow:

2008 AW - 26 runners, 10 winners, 2 Stakes Winners - 38% winners
2008 All - 81 runners, 23 winners, 3 Stakes Winners - 28% winners

In '07 Tiznow's numbers were about the same as Pulpit but four of his six stakes winners were on the synthetics and 35% of his earnings were on synthetics compared to only 12% for Pulpit.

this thread was called any respect for pyro now ? i simply stated i dont respect him anymore, and that i think court vision is going to run the race of his life in the derby, at huge odds.

And thankfully the thread has turned from that foolishness.

If the pace is slow, I think Pyro does well. If he is 4th on a slow pace it won't be more than 2 lengths. Other than a win or bad health info on Brown, Brown probably goes favorite. A win probably puts Pyro as favorite or very close.

The only way I see him getting dusted is if someone sets a fast pace and runs away.

:cool:
I really appreciate you I mean your avatar.