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-   -   How good is Big Brown? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21244)

Danzig 03-29-2008 06:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
Nothing like Derby prep time, where every horse who wins a race turns into the next Triple Crown winner...
that's true--happens every time a prep is run.


well, maybe not every. i don't think anyone jumped on the visionaire wagon a few weeks back.

cmorioles 03-29-2008 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Yeah about that much time. Maybe I'm off and Electrify just freaked, but it does seem interesting.
I posted this elsewhere, I'll do it here. The track was "suped" before the Fla Derby, not after:

Big Brown probably ran low 100s again, and the rest just stunk.

The raw figures for the three 9f races, pace and speed (projection):

R9: 92, 89 (I project this one as about a 98, so the track would be 9 slow)
R10: 128, 120 (I project this one as about 105, so suddenly the track is 15 fast?)
R12: 128, 123 (project at 110, so 13 fast)

Nice job by the super.

fpsoxfan 03-29-2008 06:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
I posted this elsewhere, I'll do it here. The track was "suped" before the Fla Derby, not after:

Big Brown probably ran low 100s again, and the rest just stunk.

The raw figures for the three 9f races, pace and speed (projection):

R9: 92, 89 (I project this one as about a 98, so the track would be 9 slow)
R10: 128, 120 (I project this one as about 105, so suddenly the track is 15 fast?)
R12: 128, 123 (project at 110, so 13 fast)

Nice job by the super.
Do you really believe the shiat you are peddling?

cmorioles 03-29-2008 06:13 PM
What is it you don't believe? All I'm saying is the track speed basically became 25 points faster between the Bonnie Miss and the Florida Derby.

fpsoxfan 03-29-2008 06:15 PM
What are you trying to say? Don't you think this is a little pre-mature with this souped up theory?

ArlJim78 03-29-2008 06:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
What are you trying to say? Don't you think this is a little pre-mature with this souped up theory?
no, the fractions or final times aren't going to change.

Cajungator26 03-29-2008 06:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I only saw the race live, but I thought Smooth Air came from well off the pace.
Yeah, Big Brown had the lead wire to wire... :confused:

The Indomitable DrugS 03-29-2008 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
What are you trying to say? Don't you think this is a little pre-mature with this souped up theory?
If he believes the times posted are accurate....than no, it's not pre-mature.

Riot 03-29-2008 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I only saw the race live, but I thought Smooth Air came from well off the pace.
Smooth Air started his move just after going into the turn. IMO he'll be able to sustain a good long move in and out around traffic, if need be, on Derby Day.

Live as in at Gulfstream? If so - my hero! Did you check out BB feet? I want to know if he is currently wearing glue-on shoes or not. And I want to know if he pulled a nail or something came half-loose when he drifted out in the stretch (or not). And I want to know what his feet look like tomorrow morning :D (Steve? Ask on ATR Monday? Pleeze? )

Hickory Hill Hoff 03-29-2008 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
I thought for sure he'd fold in the stretch. I had a 2-12-all triple
and a 2-12-all-all dime super.
Had the "2" to win, also liked Zito's runner.....12 wasn't on any of my tickets.

Danzig 03-29-2008 06:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mumtaz
Smooth Air started his move just after going into the turn. IMO he'll be able to sustain a good long move in and out around traffic, if need be, on Derby Day.

Live as in at Gulfstream? If so - my hero! Did you check out BB feet? I want to know if he is currently wearing glue-on shoes or not. And I want to know if he pulled a nail or something came half-loose when he drifted out in the stretch (or not). And I want to know what his feet look like tomorrow morning :D (Steve? Ask on ATR Monday? Pleeze? )
they talked about the glue ons...not sure tho if he wore them in the race. and he did seem to get rubber legged at the end, but who wouldn't after running that time?

Coach Pants 03-29-2008 06:20 PM
Well it's definitely Miller Time in upstate.

fpsoxfan 03-29-2008 06:20 PM
I guess that's the way I took it. I get the feeling that there are people that are trying to discredit this horse right off the bat. I saw the same thing everyone else did and that was impressive. I haven't been able to say that yet this year.

cmorioles 03-29-2008 06:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
What are you trying to say? Don't you think this is a little pre-mature with this souped up theory?
No, it is obvious. I'm still saying Big Brown ran about a 105 or so Beyer, which is way better than any other Derby prep this year.

The alternatives are the Bonnie Miss was won by open lengths in a runaway by a horse earning a 70 Beyer, or Big Brown AND Electrify just ran about 130 Beyers. Something happened to the track.

fpsoxfan 03-29-2008 06:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Well it's definitely Miller Time in upstate.
Well, we're getting there.

fpsoxfan 03-29-2008 06:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
No, it is obvious. I'm still saying Big Brown ran about a 105 or so Beyer, which is way better than any other Derby prep this year.

The alternatives are the Bonnie Miss was won by open lengths in a runaway by a horse earning a 70 Beyer, or Big Brown AND Electrify just ran about 130 Beyers. Something happened to the track.
Gotcha..my apologies. I totally misunderstood your post.

Riot 03-29-2008 06:24 PM
I'm not going to pay attention to "souped up" until somebody who was at the track today can describe what was done between races.

Hickory Hill Hoff 03-29-2008 06:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
Well, we're getting there.
It's ALWAYS Miller Time upstate!

Payson Dave 03-29-2008 06:26 PM
giving credit where credit is due.....

Quote:
Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
If this was a normal horse, I would say that he had no chance based on the data. However, there is nothing in this field that I think is good enough in this particular spot to beat this horse despite the bad post...he is much faster out of the gate than the majority of these, and should be able to establish a descent position going into the first turn. This horse also does not need the lead as he showed in his last. He earned a 104 BSF last out (we know what the rest of the field's figures look like) and will only get better. He is bred to run all day long. This is one of those races that you sit back, enjoy, and hope the favorite wins so that you can bet against him in the Derby.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-29-2008 06:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mumtaz
I'm not going to pay attention to "souped up" until somebody who was at the track today can describe what was done between races.
If it wasn't souped up - and the times posted in all three races are accurate - the runaway winner of the Bonnie Miss is a mid-level claimer, and those that she beat are all future 5K claimers.

cmorioles 03-29-2008 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mumtaz
I'm not going to pay attention to "souped up" until somebody who was at the track today can describe what was done between races.
You don't have to have seen it, it is painfully obvious. Unless, of course, the Gulfstream timer malfunctioned. That never happens, does it?

The Indomitable DrugS 03-29-2008 06:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Payson Dave
giving credit where credit is due.....
Someone should do an investigation as to who stole her login and wrote that post for her.

Danzig 03-29-2008 06:29 PM
i think it's very plausible to suggest that the track was worked in order to speed up throughout the day...they mistimed it a bit, it should have gotten faster a bit sooner. than the bonnie miss/fla derby would be the two with huge times.

we've seen it happen before, and we'll see it happen again. no doubt those at gulfstream did NOT want another 'slow' prep ala the fountain of youth.

Danzig 03-29-2008 06:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Someone should do an investigation as to who stole her login and wrote that post for her.
you know what they say about broken clocks....

Cajungator26 03-29-2008 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Payson Dave
giving credit where credit is due.....
Yep, nice call by Jessica. :)

Riot 03-29-2008 06:34 PM
Quote:
I thought Smooth Air ran well. Well enough to contend in the Derby, I'm not sure. But he definitely ran best after BB. I actually thought Nistle's Crunch ran alright also.
I went back and watched the replay a few times, the other horses, to see if there's anyone else that did well. What did you like about the way Nistle's Crunch handled the cards he was dealt today?

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-29-2008 06:36 PM
hey i totally blew off b b s chances ..he stepped up and won very nice.. if he makes the derby..ill bet against him......hes a very good horse.congrats...too ieah and on the big day....

Theatrical 03-29-2008 06:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mumtaz
Smooth Air started his move just after going into the turn. IMO he'll be able to sustain a good long move in and out around traffic, if need be, on Derby Day.

Live as in at Gulfstream? If so - my hero! Did you check out BB feet? I want to know if he is currently wearing glue-on shoes or not. And I want to know if he pulled a nail or something came half-loose when he drifted out in the stretch (or not). And I want to know what his feet look like tomorrow morning :D (Steve? Ask on ATR Monday? Pleeze? )
He did have glue-on shoes on and they showed them up close. Custom made and $550.00 a pair.

Riot 03-29-2008 06:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
If it wasn't souped up - and the times posted in all three races are accurate - the runaway winner of the Bonnie Miss is a mid-level claimer, and those that she beat are all future 5K claimers.
Yeah, I hear that. I think it's apparent track speed can change markedly during the day. Tracks dry out (and get shaded and retain moisture, etc) - but I'd like to know what maintenance was done between races if we can find it out from someone.

Riot 03-29-2008 06:43 PM
Quote:
Unless, of course, the Gulfstream timer malfunctioned. That never happens, does it?
I swear, there's some guy in maintenance there that trips over a cord on purpose just to cause figure makers to go crazy.

Unlike Oaklawn, where they just leave the effing starting gate blocking the finish line ....

SOREHOOF 03-29-2008 07:02 PM
Hoss you are right he was farther back after watching a replay, I liked the way he held on. He may have thought he won being that far back.

cmorioles 03-29-2008 07:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmfhb411
Are those projections your own ?
Or from a purchased par time sheet/service ?
I try to make my own projections off of my own homemade chart, so I'm just
curious.
Those are my own.

jpops757 03-29-2008 08:06 PM
Suprised that only one other poster has given any credit to the SA horse. First off of the boat and beat all but two.From as far off the pace I would think he has the most upside of any of the also rans.


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