You would think that would be true, but apparently even an experienced handicapper like "the_fat_man" was completely unaware of this bias before reading this thread, and stunningly didn't think anyone should even care about post position in a 9f race at Gulfstream!

Hopefully there will be a lot of people who feel that same way and are betting this race on Saturday.

Zito's runners caught a break.

Cool Coal Man got post 1 in the 12 runner Fountain Of Youth and worked out a perfect trip.

For the Florida Derby, Zito runners draw posts 1 and 3.

If this was a normal horse, I would say that he had no chance based on the data. However, there is nothing in this field that I think is good enough in this particular spot to beat this horse despite the bad post...he is much faster out of the gate than the majority of these, and should be able to establish a descent position going into the first turn. This horse also does not need the lead as he showed in his last. He earned a 104 BSF last out (we know what the rest of the field's figures look like) and will only get better. He is bred to run all day long. This is one of those races that you sit back, enjoy, and hope the favorite wins so that you can bet against him in the Derby.

Quote from Dutrow
 

Regarding Big Brown and the 12 post, from drf.com:

"I like it," he said via telephone. "He's not going to get in trouble in the race. As long as he breaks good, I think it's going to be to our advantage. It eliminates any chance of him getting into trouble. He'll get a clean trip, which is half the battle going in.

"Look, I wish he was outside in a seven-horse field, but we're going to take it. We're not going to cry. We get to play the intimidator from out there, instead of being intimidated. We are ready, babe."

Chavez has a shot.

Now that is interesting--thanks for that info DaHoss.

Does anyone scratch their head with Big Brown being the m/l fav at 3-1 given the history of the outisde posts at Gulfstream going 1 1/8? I wonder why Elysium Fields is not the fav. Oh well, be interesting to see the odds at post.

well, at least they have a ready made excuse in case of a loss. i would also remind everyone what we just saw happen with the previously undefeated derby favorite. horses can overcome some things. BUT can a lightly raced horse overcome their peers, and a very poor post draw that hasn't produced a winner at this distance in four years?

No. Big Brown has monster figures and wins. The morning line may even be too high.. He'll be 2/1.

I don't think it is all that unusual. The outside post certainly hurts his chances considerably, but I think everyone would agree that it doesn't completely ruin his chances. If he actually turns out to be a very special horse, he might still win.
Also, regarding the M/L, as I know you already know, this just reflects what the linemaker thinks the public will do. Many people that will be playing this particular race don't have a clue about the numbers of outside posts at that track.

It isn't THAT monsterous, I haven't seen them yet but BB ran a 1 last out according to Bloodhorse, and my guess is that Elysium Fields ran pretty close to that, maybe the 2 range, I could be completely wrong though, we will know tonight when they are put out

My feeling is that while he certainly could win, he was likely going to be overbet in this race regardless of post position. The fact that he drew post twelve makes me think that he will be overbet even more.

Opposite in regards to the post, people will pull back now because of it. Bettors are not stupid, at least the weekend warriors are not, they know it is impossible to win from out there.

I am not too confident in him running, regardless of what is said to the media. I don't want to get my hopes up, because like you, I am tossing out of the first two spots, and I doubt I am playing the tri.

The horse is obviously good, but this post crushes his chances of winning, and honestly, if he does win, I am ok with that also because he will be the Derby favorite then, and he will have to run so huge to win this race, that he will be gutted.

BB might be the horse that just keeps on giving because I crushed him in his opener at Toga, and I plan on playing against him on Saturday and this saturday isn't terribly important because the result will benefit me either way. He wins and I get to toss the derby favorite with confidence, he loses I probably hit the race.

If he does run, and run poorly, I wouldn't be surprised to see them run in the Lexington, or even the Holy Bull closing weekend at Gulfstream.

I was looking at a Florida Derby thread on another board and the consensus was Tomcito was going to win. Will this board ever reach that level of crazy?

That's exactly my plan. Take a stand against him this weekend and if he does happen to win then I've probably found my Derby horse.

So if he wins, you like him to win the Derby? that is exact opposite that I said? :confused: :confused:

Misread what you said...so yes we think completely opposite. :D

Obviously it depends on how this race shakes out but if he wins here it would be to me the most impressive performance thus far in a season full of crap and slow horses and I wouldn't hesitate to bet him in the Derby.

That being said...I still think he has no chance whatsoever Saturday and will put my money where my mouth is this weekend.

He has to run absolutely huge this weekend to run in the KY Derby because time is running out. This is his race because they won't wheel him back next weekend, and I doubt they would wheel him back in the Bluegrass or Arkansas Derby. So he either gets in the top two this weekend to get to the Derby or adios.

Running that big will lead to a bounce, especially for a horse that has had his problems. Personally, while I am playing against him this weekend, I almost hope he runs out of his mind and runs absolutely huge so I will be able to take advantage of it while at the Derby, he won't be on ANY of my tickets Derby day, regardless....

I'm still taking a wait and see approach until the day comes.
I would be surprised if there wasn't at least one scratch.
Majestic Warrior has a poor post, and doesn't need the earnings to get into the Derby.Makes more sense for him to re-route to an easier spot.
This is Face the Cat's only shot at getting in, so maybe they go another way too.
Regardless, Smooth Air and Fierce Wind both look a lot more playable with their inside draws.

Smooth Air = NO.....I can't argue about Fierce Wind in that I don't know enough about him

It all depends on Fierce Wind.
He has gate quickness and route speed and the ideal post. The next closest speed is gate7.

How much will BB Frank and Face The Cat fight him for the lead? How game will Fierce Wind be?

If Fierce Wind runs a strong effort, everyone else has to work very hard.

If Fierce Wind weakens, Elysium Fields or Big Brown can cruise up to even terms, and still have horse left.

What don't you like about Smooth Air, Scav?

I just think there are better horses in the race. I don't think he gets the distance and he just isn't fast enough right now. Who did he really beat in the Hutcheson? I can't recall the trip he got but my guess it was a good one

I never knew racing fans in Peru had their own message board.

But doesn't he have a tactical advantage? With all those horses trapped outside he should work out a better trip than them. . . He might not have to be better than them. Also, his last race at GP was very impressive and I think he's better bred for the distance than people realize.

I was skeptical of Smooth Air too, at first. I don't think the distance will be an issue, especially breaking for the 2 post. His connections have obviously been pointing to this race, and his work pattern is pretty impressive.
2 straight breezes going a mile, followed by a 7F work, followed by a bullet
5F work on Tuesday. He looks as fit as can be, and has a legititimate shot to hit the board. If the track is wet, he moves up even more.

Wtf?!
 

According to the DRF entries Gulfstream doesn't have a PK4 on Saturday. . .

Maybe try this?

http://www.jcp.org.pe/

That would be odd... What would be the reason for that?

EDIT- Looks like they're having a 50 cent pick 6. Do they normally do this?
Maybe they're marketing that wager, and feel the pot will be bigger without the Pick 4.

EDIT - again. DRF now shows the Pick 4 going races 9-12.

Don't know if this has been posted already, but free PPs (and a few other products) for Florida Derby on Equibase home page.

http://www.equibase.com/

I see they have a poll over there....can someone who knows more than just half of the English Language tell me what this means....


JOCKEY CLUB DEL PERU
RESULTADOS DE LA ENCUESTA
¿ Cómo llegará Tomcito el sábado en el Florida Derby (Gr.1) ?

Cuarto o más atrás : 432 64.9%
Ganará : 205 30.8%
Segundo : 21 3.2%
Tercero : 8 1.2%
Total Encuestados: 666


It seems like almost 2/3rds of the 666 people who voted say Tomcito will finish Cuarto O Mas Atras...while almost 1/3rd has him finishing Ganara.

And my title says Tomcito sucks a.ss

from the google translator:

How come Tomcito Saturday in the Florida Derby (Gr.1)?

Fourth or more back: 432 64.9%
Win: 205 30.8%
Second: 21 3.2%
Third: 8 1.2%
Respondent Total: 666

and according to the google translator

Tomcito chupa culo is Tomcito sucks a.ss

CP's is Tomcito aspires to be a donkey

I don't speak spanish but have to use the translator alot.

They have two listed now. . . One starting in Race 5 and one in Race 9. . .

Same figure as Elysium Fields, but EF's number has alot of wideness built into it. Not that I am touting this horse, but Hey Byrn's number two back would smoke BB and EF, but that was at a mile.

Not too much mention of Hey Byrn. He appears to me in tip-top form, loves the track and don't underestimate his trainer who is 18% in Graded Stakes. His running style is perfect for a race like this, and having a jockey that isn't a "top name" he will be an overlay.

my tri:

9 /1,2,6,8/ all = $40
9 in the 2nd slot too.