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-   -   For Blackthroat & Big Brown (104 BSF) fans (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20558)

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:24 PM

I'll say it again.....he is being pointed for the Blue Grass.

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
I figure he's 2-1 to finish in the top 3 of the FL Derby, which will likely be their next objective, and probably enough earnings to make the cut (usually right around $120k). Obviously he's got some issues... but this is IEAH. They're DESPERATE for a Derby starter. Let's say hypothetically he makes it into the gate off an exacta finish in the Fl Derby... how many horses would be lower odds? 4-6, maybe? We're desperate for some talent right now- outside of War Pass, have any of these shown the brilliance required to win the Derby? Cool Coal Man is OK, Pyro is OK, the rest of them, not so much...


Let me also add......I would love to give you 2-1 that he runs in the top 3 in either of those races......and you lose if he runs in neither.

Do you really think a horse that debuts on Labor Day and takes six months to make his second career start is 2-1 to make any race in a month?

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:28 PM

Well, being that they publicly said before today's race they were hoping to run in the Blue Grass, and then said it again after today's race, I will say he is being pointed for the Blue Grass.

Of course, I don't have a hotline to On.....I mean someone at IEAH...so I will have to trust the public comments for now.

philcski 03-05-2008 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Let me also add......I would love to give you 2-1 that he runs in the top 3 in either of those races......and you lose if he runs in neither.

Do you really think a horse that debuts on Labor Day and takes six months to make his second career start is 2-1 to make any race in a month?

I would take 2-1 on him in either race to hit the board, yes... if I were sure he would make the gate. And I wholeheartedly agree the horse has issues, but remember who we are dealing with here- Dutrow (who could probably raise Lazarus) and IEAH (who are DESPERATE for a Derby starter). IF the horse is healthy, and maybe he is enough to make it two months, he's a legitimate contender.

I would bet everything I have that he doesn't make it past June, however.

GPK 03-05-2008 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Well, being that they publicly said before today's race they were hoping to run in the Blue Grass, and then said it again after today's race, I will say he is being pointed for the Blue Grass.

Of course, I don't have a hotline to On.....I mean someone at IEAH...so I will have to trust the public comments for now.


You clearly need a facebook account.

philcski 03-05-2008 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
You clearly need a facebook account.

... and I need more pics like your avatar, who is that??

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:32 PM

I understand he may be under 2-1 to hit the board ( he will most likely pay less than $6 to show ) but even if he's 40% to hit the board, which I don't think, I'm not so sure he's even 40% to make either race realistically.

On your June bet....you'll have to find another bookmaker.

GPK 03-05-2008 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
... and I need more pics like your avatar, who is that??


the incredibly elegant Diane Lane.

philcski 03-05-2008 08:32 PM

Oh, and they'd be much wiser to go to the FL Derby, as 3 Derby spots are available versus 2 from the Blue Grass- not to mention the synthetic crap at KEE.

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
the incredibly elegant Diane Lane.


I assume you've seen " A Little Romance. "

Great scenes at Longchamp.

philcski 03-05-2008 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
the incredibly elegant Diane Lane.

:eek: isn't she like 45? MILF!!!

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Oh, and they'd be much wiser to go to the FL Derby, as 3 Derby spots are available versus 2 from the Blue Grass- not to mention the synthetic crap at KEE.

I think his affinity to turf is probably coming into play. Another problem with putting all your eggs in the Florida Derby basket is what happens when you draw post 12.

philcski 03-05-2008 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I think his affinity to turf is probably coming into play. Another problem with putting all your eggs in the Florida Derby basket is what happens when you draw post 12.

Would think the pedigree would lend to the poly but who knows with that stuff?

Draw post 12...scratch and wait two weeks?

GPK 03-05-2008 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
:eek: isn't she like 45? MILF!!!

and only getting better looking

GPK 03-05-2008 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I assume you've seen " A Little Romance. "

Great scenes at Longchamp.


I haven't Andy. My film experience is not quite up to par with yours. I take it you recommend this one?

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
I haven't Andy. My film experience is not quite up to par with yours. I take it you recommend this one?

It's great. I think it's her first movie. She's maybe 14. Excellent movie. I saw it when I was a kid, it was my dream, Diane Lane falls in love with my equivalent.....a kid obsessed with the movies and the racetrack.

philcski 03-05-2008 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It's great. I think it's her first movie. She's maybe 14. Excellent movie. I saw it when I was a kid, it was my dream, Diane Lane falls in love with my equivalent.....a kid obsessed with the movies and the racetrack.

We've found your weakness... Diane Lane :p

As for our bet... I'll buy you 3 beers at Siro's if Big Brown doesn't make a Derby prep and hit the board, you buy me 6 if he does. We have a trade?

philcski 03-05-2008 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus
And soon thereafter, he'd raze Lazarus.

... or run him the next day.

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
We've found your weakness... Diane Lane :p

As for our bet... I'll buy you 3 beers at Siro's if Big Brown doesn't make a Derby prep and hit the board, you buy me 6 if he does. We have a trade?


If she was only a waitress.

You're on.

Coach Pants 03-05-2008 09:44 PM

I think Big Brown has a chance to win the Arc if he goes.

philcski 03-05-2008 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
I think Big Brown has a chance to win the Arc if he goes.

I'll lay you a 30 pack of beers to my one. They're only offering a case in Vegas on the Arc.

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
I think Big Brown has a chance to win the Arc if he goes.


Wire the field?

Danzig 03-05-2008 10:11 PM

surely he would lap them.

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
surely he would lap them.


Too bad the Arc isn't actually a full circumferance of the course.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-05-2008 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
3 Derby spots are available versus 2 from the Blue Grass- not to mention the synthetic crap at KEE.

Big Brown did breeze under-tack on the KEE Polytrack at the April sale last year.

He registered a big stride (almost 26 feet long) - but didn't show a great deal of raw speed - his quarter mile work was in 21.20 seconds.

He was a $60K yearling and sold for $190,000 after that work.

I doubt something like that had much of anything to do with the decision to aim for the Blue Grass - but the horse did get over that stupid surface well enough to think it shouldn't be any concern or excuse.

I need to go over the replays of GP's races today much closer before I come to any strong opinions about this horse.

Cannon Shell 03-05-2008 11:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
I'll lay you a 30 pack of beers to my one. They're only offering a case in Vegas on the Arc.

A 30 pack is about the equal of 3 beers at Siro's

Danzig 03-06-2008 06:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Too bad the Arc isn't actually a full circumferance of the course.

which would make the feat that much more incredible...

jcs11204 03-06-2008 06:59 AM

please stop this is the most overrated horse i have seen all year

giant moon would run him into the ground

zippyneedsawin 03-06-2008 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204
please stop this is the most overrated horse i have seen all year

giant moon would run him into the ground

Yes, he's been beating up on Spanky Fishbein impressively.

Sightseek 03-06-2008 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
If she was only a waitress.

You're on.

Ha! Ha!

Perhaps I'm being naive but the fact that IEAH bought into Court Vision and Pure Clan will keep them plenty busy enough on Derby/Oaks weekend to give Big Brown the time he needs. I imagine they'd love a Travers horse too.

blackthroatedwind 03-06-2008 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Ha! Ha!

Perhaps I'm being naive but the fact that IHEA bought into Court Vision and Pure Clan will keep them plenty busy enough on Derby/Oaks weekend to give Big Brown the time he needs. I imagine they'd love a Travers horse too.


I will chalk this up to trying to one-up PG1985 in the craziness department.

blackthroatedwind 03-06-2008 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204
please stop this is the most overrated horse i have seen all year

giant moon would run him into the ground


I see you didn't spend your time away from here honing your handicapping skills.

Sightseek 03-06-2008 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I will chalk this up to trying to one-up PG1985 in the craziness department.

I think you are much to harsh towards the management at IEAH.

blackthroatedwind 03-06-2008 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
I think you are much to harsh towards the management at IHEA.


Most importantly....it's " too. "

They have already said they are running him in the Blue Grass. How exactly does that translate into bringing him along slowly to the Travers?

zippyneedsawin 03-06-2008 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Ha! Ha!

Perhaps I'm being naive but the fact that IHEA bought into Court Vision and Pure Clan will keep them plenty busy enough on Derby/Oaks weekend to give Big Brown the time he needs. I imagine they'd love a Travers horse too.

So, are you assuming the people with IHEA think they have the derby & oaks in the bag?

jcs11204 03-06-2008 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I see you didn't spend your time away from here honing your handicapping skills.

i truly belive i am a very good handicapper, starting today i will be posting some of my plays, mostly pick 3's and you can tell me how good i am . i do know this i am a legend in the local otb, come down if you dont think its true.
couple weeks i went 9-9 on a saturday aqueduct card, hit early and late pick 4's, but never played the pick 6

union st, schenectady branch

Sightseek 03-06-2008 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Most importantly....it's " too. "

They have already said they are running him in the Blue Grass. How exactly does that translate into bringing him along slowly to the Travers?

:rolleyes:


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