If they did that 4% takeout thing at a major circuit track (SA, Hol, Bel, Churchill), I believe it would work. I just don't like Ellis cards because I'm not familiar with the horses or the jockey and trainer patterns.

Exactly. For players that dont follow the circuit, (and Ellis is mostly made up of lower tier KY horses, Indiana horses and Fairmont horses)the takeout is not appealing because they have no clue about what is going on. I'm sure if Saratoga during that time period had the same bet with the same takeout it would have been a big success. Plus for lower takeout to truly be effective it must be in effect for a long period of time.

Cajun is really good at looking at the pictures though

At Beulah

i feel so stupid.

i didn't really think about why the BC officials added these new races. i didn't think about why they wanted to run on a friday-i figured that they wanted to give the fans more-and there's the difficulty of fitting races into a one-day schedule.
i just was doing some catching up on my reading, and am on page 965 in the feb 16 bloodhorse. it's the dan liebman (editor in chief) article that he does.....bear with my typing from this article, which discusses the bc going to cali two years in a row.


'churchill is not happy with the financial arrangements whereby Breeders Cup takes most of the handle and simulcasting revenue, leaving the host track with, basically, just another big Saturday. One thing tracks could count on was a nice spike in on-track business the day before the BC. But, with the BC races now also on Friday, much of that handle also flows to BC, not the host track.(my italics).'

also says in the article that monmouth lost money on the bc last year--weather didn't help of course, but they lost millions.


seems that liebman points the blame for churchill not getting the deal next year on the ky track. but with the current state of the bc race schedule--what's in it for churchill really?

so, all about money. BC wanted the friday money too, rather than just saturday. and the sponsorship dough. and now they want a sponsor for the whole event, not just for each race.

does everyone remember what happened to the golden goose at the end of the story?

Herein lies the problem.

Breeders' Cup races should not be a place to expect stars to be born.

The Breeders' Cup is a celebration of the greatest horses in our sport; not a place to look for future talent among obscurities.

That's a great point.

"does everyone remember what happened to the golden goose at the end of the story?"

they cut her open to get to the ordinary eggs inside.

nope, rather than being happy with her laying a golden egg at a time, they got greedy and killed the goose. no gold, no more eggs.

the goose was made out of gold, though.

right?

no, just a goose. her eggs were gold.

so she was an ordinary goose that laid golden eggs?

i think her name is deceptive.

just cause my kid does something doesn't make me the golden cock.

Right. And instead of what was just a short time ago a chance to see many of these best horses race against each other in the same race, we now have more and more opportunities for them to NOT run against each other.

--Dunbar

1. You don't have to be NEARLY as familiar with the local conditions when you are trying to beat a 4% vig compared to trying to beat a 20% vig.

2. Do you think the capping competition at Ellis is as tough as at SA, Hol, Bel, Churchill? Maybe it is, but I doubt it.

3. If horse bettors were so bright, they would have collectively realized that if the 4% Ellis experiment was successful, other tracks would have noticed and tried similar things. Instead, what the other tracks noticed was a 4% takeout that did not bring in nearly enough action to justify the low vig.

Even if you knew nothing about the track, a random Ellis pick 4 costing $100 would have been a $4 investment in the future of the game. Despite the fact that the vast majority of bettors, including those here, are losing far more than 4% of their total bets in the longterm, not many bettors supported the Ellis venture.

--Dunbar

.....

well, i apologize that in my haste at typing earlier that i called her the golden goose. she was just a goose.

All of what you say is probably true but Ellis is such a pile of crap especially when you are competing against Saratoga, Del Mar and even Arlington. I have yet to find a horseplayer who plays for the good of the game even if it will in the long run possibly help them. Most players, even here, follow the sport and wager in a part time fashion and I just dont see those people having much interest in handicapping Ellis regardless of takeout. I tried to play some of the Ellis pick 4's because i thought it was a great idea. But honestly after a few miserable attempts I threw in the towel. Well I may just suck as a handicapper but thats another story.

Yeah, CS, there is a bit of a Prisoner's Dilemma aspect to expecting folks to "play for the good of the game". I did do just that, however, because I thought it was that important. I was vacationing during almost all the promotion, and would normally have spent zero time making horse bets. (it was Hawaii, after all!) But I took about a half hour each morning to create a $200-$400 ticket. If there were another 100 people in the entire country doing that, it would have had an impact. If there were 300 people doing that, every track would have taken notice. My "expected loss" was about $12/day, assuming my capping was completely clueless. (an assumption that I could not easily reject, as far as the Pick 4's went) As it turned out, I did considerably worse than a dart thrower with my Ellis bets, but that doesn't really change the way I look at it.

--Dunbar

I think Bill Farish has Pretty good Ideal of what is going on in Racing Probably more so than you.

Chuck has a better idea of what is really going on in every facet of the game than anybody on that commitee.

That's no insult to Will Farrish.....it is what it is.

Absolutely right! They would be smarter to cater to the fans they already have -- word of mouth is still the best advertising. Horse racing will never (again) be a mainstream sport no matter how much marketing dollars you throw at it. I wonder if ESPN has something to do with all these stupid ideas to "improve" the Breeders Cup?

That is ridiclous. I dont have any idea what Bill Farish knows but I do know that the hardcore fans of racing have been alarmingly up in arms about the changes. I do know that "win and your in" is strictly a marketing device (and a weak one at that) Imagine if an NCAA team was guaranteed a spot in the tourney by winning the Maui Classic? I do know that running a Breeders Cup race on Breeders Cup day and not having it televised (the marathon) seems like a bad idea. I do know that renaming the Distaff wont attract one more viewer or gambling dollar. I have run horses in both the Breeders Cup and Hong Kong Invitational and there is no question about where we were treated better both on the backside and frontside. I do know that alienating your most passionate fans in puzzling attempts to create new fans not a good idea.

As opposed to stating why you believe I am incorrect, you post "Bill Farish is smarter than you". I can tell you a few things that I know that Bill Farish cant . I can post the views of a fan with no family connections to the game, I can post the view of a broke college student that needs to cash a bet to have money to eat, I can post a view of a college educated guy living in a tack room while learning the ropes grooming from the ground up, I can post the view of a racing official, I can post the view of a private trainer, I can post the view of a public trainer, I can post the view of a small breeder, I can post the view of an owner. I can post the view of a pinhooker.I have been all of the above. Maybe I am not as smart as the illustrious board members but I know alot more about what people both in and out of the business reallyfeel about what is going on.

But other than that Chuck.....have you ever hosted a Tea for the Queen?

I stay away from all kinds of queens

I can really think of something funny to say......but it would make Beth too happy.

They're not televising the Marathon ? That is just plain wrong.

They probably only have 4 hours of air time. They don't want to devote 25% to the running of one race.

They need to renogotiate so that the Marathon is televised, imo.

Here's an idea. How about a relay race with 4 4F sprints and the jockeys handing off the baton (whip) ?

They need to fire Jerry Bailey and hire sumitas to take his place.

Sorry if I should know this but have they said what the 6 races for the Pick 6 will now be?

Classic, Turf, Mile, Sprint, Juvenile and ???

Or will they just make it a Pick 9?

Camels or horses?

Have you spoken with people like Farish and others about these issues. I have. Not on this topic specifically, but I have had the chance to speak with some of the members of racing's "elite" about issues and am always dumbfounded by their answers. People like the Farishes and the Phipps' may be steeped in the traditions of the game and may know all about granddads breeding farm but that's about it. Ask them how the trainers feel about certain management decisions. Ask them how horseplayers feel about things. They may walk around at Saratoga and Keeneland and Belmont etc and might even walk between groups of horseplayers, but they are in a bubble. They don't interact with the crowd. They may be "in it" but they are not "of it."
People who run BC exist in the same bubble. They hire marketing firms with no ties to racing and it's traditions or it's participants. I'll take Cannon Shell's statements. He's out there everyday, participating in the game. He certainly knoews more about it than some "Jr. Marketing Analyst" on Madison Ave.

Random thought regarding 2007
 

I just thought of something in regards to the BC Turf Sprint. With them running it down the hill this year, can they run it 6f or 6.5f around the turf course if needed. If it spits they take the hill races off the turf and I am not sure if the turf course can accomodate a 6f race....anyone know?

I think the SA turf course is only 7/8 of a mile around. So I don't think they can run 6 or 6.5 unless they go down the hill.

Monmuth was a swamp last BC and they ran. I don't know but I guess they will run down the hill and if they tell the NASCAR fans about the possibility for disaster the rating will go up?

I imagine racing down hill on a really wet turf could be dangerous. Guess we'll find out who comes first.