I've learned a lot from this thread whether it's been Hooves, Andy or anyone else. I'm glad to be associated with folks that have so much knowledge of the game. I can honestly tell you that out of everyone on here, Hooves, Andy and Steve have helped me the most. In the end we all have to make our own decisions. I'm not sure if you were looking much at Hooves' Keeneland picks last spring, but the guy was hotter than a pistol. He was handing out 10-1 and higher bombs almost on a daily basis.

not brass hat....love the brit spears comment...

figs mean nothing

jocks dont matter at all

age dont matter..lol

you cant close if you cant run....

Your running two figs comment is a stretch. In this case the jock doesnt matter. It's not like it's a new jockey....or that Diane Nelson is now riding the horse. These are older horses...not sure why him being 7 matters.

For a guy who some people say has a good opinion, you sure are not coming off as a bright guy.

So are you gonna tell me who you like Britney?

Probably Daaher....I guess you are a chalk eating weasel.

He might be brilliant.


But in this case his reasoning is borderline retarded.

he is the most obv choice but if i had to pick an upsetter it would be the 5/1 .but please pound brass hat..and have a great day..willies not riding at tampa bay for no reason..fyi..and your personal attacks are very funny.. just load up on brass hat..we can revisit this after the race..smart guy

[quote=stonegossard]Your running two figs comment is a stretch. In this case the jock doesnt matter. It's not like it's a new jockey....or that Diane Nelson is now riding the horse. These are older horses...not sure why him being 7 matters.

For a guy who some people say has a good opinion, you sure are not coming off as a bright guy.

So are you gonna tell me who you like Britney?

Probably Daaher....I guess you are a chalk eating weasel.[/QUOTE]

Ouch.
That he is not.
Stone..you are moody today man.

Why the strong language, Boo Boo? It ain't all that.

If you like Brass Hat, you really have to think that he, along with Fairbanks and AP Arrow are the other top ones to beat here. And really, who have any of those beaten, other than themselves?

AP did win the Clark but had a pretty soft trip and just beat BH. He was a bust at Hawthorne at a short number and was life and death to beat Rehoboth at 1/2 at Gulf last year. Frankly, his best race, imo, is his 3rd against Corinthian. He has some shot, I guess, but at 5/1 or so, I'd never use him on top.

Fairbanks looks 6/1 - 7/1 but really, how is he going to win? Against graded horses, he's needed the front and he's not going to get it. He's going to press/pass Daaher and have enough late? No way. For me, he's a top 2 toss/ marginal top 3 toss.

Brass Hat IS older. It does make a difference. He won the Mass off a perfect trip and did the same in his comeback win last year. In both he was closer than he will be in the Donn. The same is true of his Clark. He's going to be in the last 3 early in this race for certain and probably dead last. That is, of course, unless Willie gives him the semi-standard 3w/4w+ around the first turn ride he's given him numerous times.

I don't think he's good enough to overcome a poor trip and I don't think he's likely to close good enough to beat finish in front of both AP and Spring at Last who are both going to have nicer trips and first run from the second flight.

The only way Brass Hat wins is if Einstein and Daaher are both uncontrollable on the front, AP Arrow and Spring at Last are compromised by being too close and Willie saves big ground. It truly has to totally fall apart for Brass Hat to win.

I figure BH will be 5-1/6-1 and his chances of winning are more like 15-1.

I think the 1,3 and 7 are too cheap here and I do not give Einstein much of a shot.

Daaher can obviously win and if you like him, he'll probably be a worthwhile bet simply because Einstein will take far more $$ than he's worth. In fact, Einstein in the Donn alone makes it worth wagering on the race. Daaher looks to me like he'll be within a tick of 7/5.

The horse that could get lost on the board is Spring at LAst. I think he and Daaher and perhaps AP Arrow are the only contenders certain to get the trip they want. I think Spring can rate enough and if he goes off over 4/1, that will be a win play for me. I'll also use him over/under with Daaher and over AP Arrow in the ex.

With much apology for those who will be betting against him, but for the sake of the older male division I hope Dahaar dusts this group because the older male division is in desperate need of a true Grade 1 horse outside of Curlin.

How is Daaher cheap speed and Fairbanks isn't?!

I was talking about letting Daaher chase the cheap speed.

O ok - personally I think Daaher will be on the lead. . . None of these horses can match up with his early speed. . .

Well watching how the track is playing today I'd say you're right. Should be a boring race.

No kidding. It seems odd that this field inspired such spirited discussion, although I guess for those that don't like Daaher, it is a pretty even field.

I'm not sure its fair to criticize O'Neill for the "shipping factor". The one horse that comes to mind of his that had trouble shipping is Lava Man but I always wondered if racing w/out race day Bute was the factor with him.

BTW, Spring at Last won in Dubai which is a helluva lot longer ship and tougher medication rules. SaL should sit the perfect trip. Not sure what the price will be because there's 4 absolutely no chance types who figure to take very little betting $ (the 3 grassers and Dr. Googles).

In the Swale I think the morning line odds are nutty. Wincat has no business being 9/5 off a maiden win at Philly Park even though his trainer Kieran McLaughlin is a sharpie. Coal Play at 5/2 is using this as a prep for the FOY or perhaps a race at Fair Grounds or Oaklawn. He's not a sprinter.

Wayne Lucas has an interesting horse, Silver Edition who has run well in all three of his races less than a mile. I think he is the horse to beat in this race. But I don't like betting Wayne Lucas' horses at short odds.

Eaton's Gift might like the return to a one turn sprint. He ran a pretty darn good race at Hollywood Park in the Hollywood Futurity. His sprint races where impressive and if you look at his debut race you'll see he raced against horses who came back to win in their next starts including Kodiak Cowboy who won the Bashford Manor and Saratoga Special. Being a colt by Johannesburg his game should be one turn sprints and if he's between 4 and 6 to 1 you have to put a few bucks on his nose.

I like Eaton's Gift to win with Silver Edition finishing second.

Wincat is going to dust this field IMO, with or without Coal Play. His race at Philly was SUPER fast for a debut, and the only reason they went to Philly was because they got a 40% bonus on the purse for him being a PA bred. 30k for a MSW win, very Toga/Del mar esqe as far as purse size is concerned. (Now I will agree that when you have a good horse, an MSW purse should mean nothing).

I fully expect him to win this race, at even money

I expect the value play in the Swale to be St. Joe. Brutal pace at the bullring in the jackpot race, and he was arguably the best in the Iroquois after setting a fast pace. Now he turns back. I expect Silver Edition to go off as the favorite.

In the Donn, Daaher looks like he is a legit favorite and a horse I will not spend much time trying to beat. He might face some pressure early from the likes of Fairbanks and maybe Kiss The Kid but he will dust those horses. The problem to this race is will there be a fast early pace which has Daaher winning the battle and losing the war or a moderate pace where Daaher has enough to negoitiate the 1 1/8 and cross the line first.

If they go too fast I think a classy horse like Brass Hat could pick up the pieces. Another horse I think will run well is Spring At Last. This horse has shown he has talent but has never won a two turn race on dirt. Yet he has faced top quality competition in some of his route races and he did not diggrace himself. I like that he was able to stalk a moderate pace on the grass and finish strong to win on opening day over Santa Anita's turf course.
I'm not worried about O'Neill shipping and his record. The fact that he is shipping to run here tells me he has confidence in the horse. It looks like he was pointing Spring At Last to this race.

I think I'm going to play Spring at Last to win. If he is 6-1 or higher I will wager more on him. I'll also box him in an exacta box with Dahrer.

You might be right about St. Joe. While the winner of his race race was right behind him early the rest of the pack was way back. Plus Z Humor came back to win the LeCombe at Fairgrounds. I'm going to use him with my top selection

Watch the dirt races today and keep an eye on the undercard tomorrow before deciding on a closer.

Daaher wins by open lengths whether he leads or stalks. Very hard to close on that track.

I am not on either side here, but TG speaking, Brass Hat is the only one that has a competitive number with Daahar. This being said, Brass Hat should have zero excuse in this race given that he will get the pace, and the trip, and a tired front runner to run at.

But, I think it is very possible that Luzzi might let Fairbanks and Kiss the Kid clear, where Daahar is sitting third with a garden trip, and if that is the case, then Brass Hat has zero shot.

There is also the possiblity that Fairbanks/Kiss the Kid float wide on that first turn, and then Daahar gets an easy lead

I hope Luzzi is that stupid to sit off of Fairbanks. That track played strictly to frontrunners yesterday and should play faster today.

I like Daaher and believe he will run well. Daaher has been lights out since he added blinkers. Spring At Last is not a deep closer and I don't anticipate he'll be one in this race. As I said I'm not going to spend a lot of capital in trying to beat him.

I don't see the need to try and beat Daaher in the Pk4. . . The first leg is a little wide open, the second leg is pretty wide open being that it's a maiden race, and there are a few potential price horses in the final leg. I'll just spread in the others and single Daaher rather than have to use another horse in the Donn when none of them look like they can hang with him (especially if the track plays to speed). . .

Fairbanks will not have the lead at any call and probably not out of the gate. He isn't fast enough to lead on a quick fraction. Most likely Kiss the Kidd is going to set the pace with Daaher pressing. Fairbanks could be next and Spring at Last will not be far behind.

IMO you are going to regret this opinion and it is one of the dangers of looking at sheets and playing races from tracks that you do not follow.

So you obviously think it is much more wide open? Me personally, I think there is one A and 1 B. Wincat being the A and Coal Play being the B.

I think there are a few horses that can win that race and I don't particularly think the horse you like is one of them.

If Daheer runs his race, he should win this. My only concern would be the comments made by his trainer is that the Dubai World Cup is the race they are pointing to. This is basically a gr.1 prep in essence, which you should never want to take a short price on. (But note trainer's off the layoff %)

As for the others in here, they are recycled also rans, names we have seen and heard previously. Nothing to be excited about, Einstein is the only new face in this crowd, IMO this is an extremely poor race to take a shot at him on his first dirt race(minus the slop race against turf horses 2/4/06). The question is if Einstein was such a good horse on dirt, why didn't they take a shot with him earlier? Seems like abit of a desperation move.

Brass Hat a really bad horse? He is a horse held together with duct tape who can run very well when right. I am going to play a Daaher w/ AP Arrow-Brass Hat exacta. If BH is on his best he can win the race. He has a very good record at the distance He won this race two years ago by over 4 lengths from the outside post...not an easy task at GP at 9 panels.. Will also play a few shekels on BH over Daaher.

I'm going against conventional wisdom here and doing a straight exacta of Daaher-Einstein.

I think Daaher is the only horse in the race that is capable of winning a race of this magnitude. The cluster**** of Fairbanks/Brass Hat/AP Arrow does not impress me at all. I'll side with the winning class of Einstein, a closer who should benefit from the pace scenarioi

Just a heads up if your using that thinking in your pick...it was Z Fortune who won the Lecomte not Z Humor.

Guess I'm going to eat chalk, probably going with Wincat and Silver Edition, interested to see what Coal Play does here.
And going to eat chalk on the Donn, have to go with Daaher, throwing Brass Hat in and either Fairbanks or Einstein just don't know about the dirt for him.

Invasor ran very well to overcome a lot of trouble last year for the same connections and with the same future goal so I wouldn't worry about Daaher being ready. . .

Chalk makes me choke. Daaher's chances of a completely looose-on-the-lead scenario like he enjoyed in the Cigar Mile (where Midnite Lute was out of his ideal element) are enough for me to try and beat him.

I hear you; however Daaher is not Invasor yet. For what it's worth I liked Daaher since betting him in The Queen's Plate. Good to see he turned out to be a pretty decent horse afterall.

good call Bruce

i dont suppose it would be too much to ask to actually say who the top 3 were in the race, for those of us without access to the race?

Spring At Last - AP Arrow - Kiss the Kid - Brass Hat.