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Its tough to keep arguing the inablility to finish or continual lucky trips of a horse that has won the BC Juvi, TBD, Kentucky Derby, Jim Dandy, and Travers. Not to mention the races he has finished a close second in... I will give you, he has yet to prove he is one of the best horses ever, however, he is a dominent horse this year, and will be a major factor in every race he breaks from the gate in. If you like others better, fine. To minify a horse who has proven he can compete with, and best, most all those who callenge him is just wrong. |
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I just read what I wrote, and realized most of it is unreadable..lol Drugs and I can agree to disagree on SS... |
i picked up a new word, minify.
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Too bad I did not use "give comeuppance." |
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I have to say, i am FAR from convinced with Street Sense and in my opinion i don't think he has a hope of winning the Classic.
In my opinion he has reached as high he is going to get and could be on the downward spiral now. How anyone can say he didn't act on the Poly is beyond me. If a horse doesn't act on a surface they are beaten at the gates, simple. He acted on the poly, but he didn't battle close to the wire. I know there was a slow pace, i know Hard Spun got an uncontested lead, but why? SS was more than capable to challenge HS early without taking much out of him. It was the fact that Borel really got serious with SS and he found almost nil when under pressure. We know he loves coming from a mile back and passing beaten horses in his races. That will be very difficult to do at a place like Monmouth and i can already see Boral getting slaughtered for the ride he will give on October 27th. |
i am hoping that many involved in the classic will think that street sense could have put pressure on hard spun, but chose not to since he had bigger fish to fry, and that hard spun will come back to them with the added distance.
and then i hope hard spun wins by a country mile. |
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Both are good horses and it should make for a great Classic..may the best horse win..but probably some obscure longshot will win in a head scratcher! |
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I like tactical races, as most of our races are tactical, and i'm pretty sure that (even though SS might be best when closing) Borel would have been murdered by the media over here for giving Hard Spun such an easy lead. Whether it was a prep or whatever, i thought the ride was dreadful if i'm honest. He got within half a length early on....... how much more would it have taken out of him to make HS go one or two strides faster, even if it was just for a furlong or two? One thing is for sure, SS won't have an easy time closing in the classic. As Danzig said, i've got a funny feeling that everyone will give HS an uncontested lead, just assuming he will come back to them over 10furlongs. There is every chance that he will steal it from the front and leave everyone else looking rather stupid. |
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Boy..that scenario never happen before when HS faced more than a limited # of starters. He had plenty of company upfront..I find it hard to believe that is how it will play out in the Classic. But PEACE..understand your point of view. |
Hard Spun isn't bothered by cheap company and his ideal cruising speed is more of a time thing than a positional thing.
Cruising Speed" 111 - 112 The 6furlong goal for Hard Spun in a classic distance route regardless of position.(LanesEnd,Derby,Haskell,Kycup) Cursing Speed: 109 or 115. :confused: :mad: Unexpected fractions that incite the handicapper to start shaking fist and cursing the jockey. (Preakness, Belmont) |
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Why get Street Sense involved early......why not?? I get so fed up with these so called "brilliant" horses that have to have a race run to suit. If that is the case, the horse isn't "brilliant" at all. He got within half a length early on and stayed there for quite a while. Why not let out an inch of rein? Could it have done that much harm..... ofcourse not! I wasn't talking about how the track will be riding, but Monmouth is a tight track (correct me if i'm wrong). SS got very, VERY lucky in the Derby with the passage he got (it opened up like the red sea). If Borel hadn't got the initial gap in the Derby it is almost certain he would have finished at best mid division. The same tactics won't always work to perfection. I seriously think Hard Spun will get it fairly easy on the lead, mainly because everyone else seems to think he won't get home over ten furlongs. It will be difficult, but not as difficult as it will be for Street Sense in my opinion. |
Each of these horses has run (I believe) 3 races beyond 9f on the dirt.
Street Sense in the Derby, Preakness, and Travers. Hard Spun in the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont. Based on what I saw in those six efforts, I would find it difficult to ever pick Hard Spun over Street Sense beyond 9f on the dirt. In fact, I think there would have to be absolutely no early speed in the race for me to even consider it. |
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I like his past efforts and I think he could have a good shot in the BCC, but that doesn't mean that I think he is the Horse of the Decade. This need to figure out whether every horse deserves to be called "brilliant" or not seems a bit pointless. |
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I posted my comments a minute after you posted this, but without seeing what you wrote. I think I will be accused of being in a club with you now. |
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But then coming into the straight, Borel really got very serious with Street Sense.... but this was just a "prep", right? In my opinion, he got more serious in the saddle than Pino did on Hard Spun. The ride just didn't make any sense to me. To answer your question, no, i didn't bet Street Sense, i didn't play this race at all.... mainly because i fancied Hard Spun but i did wonder whether they would experiment a little with Street Sense. Well, watching the Derby over and over again, i cannot see how he would have got anywhere near the lead if it wasn't for the rail run. True, no one else went for it and Borel decided to try his luck, and fair play to him. I apologise that i do not agree with you, but there was really no need for the Stevie Wonder comments. |
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hossy...I keep thinking you are drugs |
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so you say....how the phuck would I know?:p |
the fact that hard spun had a lead in the derby and then finished second is the reason i feel he may be left alone in the classic. of course, like the derby, he may not finish in front...
again, as in the derby, if anyone else tries to go with him early, they won't finish well. he won't either, but it could cost any other speed the race. difference is, there won't be a twenty horse field, not as many traffic issues, and street sense won't be the only one closing. should be a heck of a race. |
Good Points
Good points Danzig. I'm not interested in "crowning" anyone. If you want to go ahead and crown Street Sense, then then crown him! But if Danzig is right and Street Sense is who we think he is, then a month from now, at 12-1 Hard Spun has a good chance to establish position, that could be on the lead, it could be sitting just off the pace, plus with that Danzig, Turkoman Breeding, what if the track comes up sloppy? Hard Spun is worth a play to finish in the top 4, and like all members of this 3 year old crop they seem to run their races every time. AGS, SS, Tiago, Curlin and HS all seem to run their races.
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half that
Half That, you mean to tell me he is going to be 6-1 or less. Last year Invasor was the 3rd choice at 6.7-1, Lava Man was 6-1 as the 2nd choice.
You have to assume a full 14 horse field, because this raceis like the Derby they will run if they can. Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, Lawyer Ron, Curlin and Hard Spun can not all mathematically be under 6-1 impossible. Assuming Lawyer Ron runs first today he is automatically the first or 2nd choice, if Curlin wins he is in the top 3 with Street Sense and AGS. There is no way 4 horses will be under 6-1 now it is possible that it is like the derby when the favorite is higher than 3-1. |
yes closer to 6-1
Your probably right about closer to 6-1. And a lot does depend on what happens today. But odds will be higher on everybody than you think, plus I forgot to throw in Tiago and Awesome Gem, a lot of horses will fall between 5-13 to 1.. I will say 8-1.
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