Thats close enough.

I have Spun and Hunter as futures. Not that bad, 1 out of 2

1929 #20 won

Nobody's ever won from post 19 I don't believe.

Fair enough, those are valid concerns.
But I have not seen the people claiming he is so good that he can win from anywhere.

correct

So what does Kaplan do #10 or #11

THen Jaime goes for the other?

I personally feel the top earners should pick their post in order, horses like Teaufflesberg and I'mawildandcrazyguy just got in by the skin of their teeth, accordingly they should have the last two positions. I want to see a good race, not one with the best contenders against the 8 ball before the gate even springs.:mad:

I'm not going to single Curlin or anything, but he's done all that he can do and is expected to do. If the fields were weak, he CRUSHED the weak fields by a combined 26 lengths or something.... he's going to run his hardest, I don't think a little interference is going to ruin his race. Even Barbaro stumbled and got bumped and won by 8 or whatever it was.

How is this post draw any different than any other post draw? Lots of horses get hung in miserable positions in major stakes races.

the number of horses is the difference. define miserable post position. usually that means nothing more than 10, 12, or 14 tops.

In the derby 1 and 20 in particular are beyond miserable.

I would suggest having an outside post in a 9f race at Gulfstream is probably just as crappy as having post 20 in the Kentucky Derby.

Here is some more data on the inside post, I'm not sure when the track was reconfigured to squeeze the inside, maybe someone here knows the exact year but to answer a question...the starting gate was installed at CD in 1930, since then 8 horses have won the Derby from pp#1...they are:
War Admiral (1937)
Lawrin (1938)
Gallahadion (1940)
Citation (1948)
Hill Gale (1952)
Needles (1956)
Chateaugay (1963)
Ferdinand (1986)
I'm pretty sure that I read that the change was made after Chateaugay as it was news when Ferdinand won...pretty sure they said he was the first...and last.

I think you're correct, in this era the 1 post is considered a death sentence.

One thing about the post position is a horse like Closing Argument ran well from the 19 hole I think, either way, it was way the hell out there, and it gutted him for good but it is possible for them to run well from the outside

18

He was actually the best horse in the race that day... shame he didn't get the win to prove it.

whatever it was, it was no man's land. All the horses I am considering got good draws so essentially, I will be broke after the Derby

He ran the best race, I wouldn't say he was the best horse. He was pressing the pace, and even led at the 8th pole for a brief moment.

Sorta what I meant... best horse on that day, at least.

I had him, hubby at Giacomo. If we had only done and exacta with our picks. :)

I used Afleet Alex, Closing Argument, Bellamy Road (I thought he was the winner), Noble Causeway and Don't Get Mad in my tri box. I tossed Giacomo... boy was I mad. :mad:

Do that this year!!

Horses like AGS, Dominican and Great hunter may be in luck.

Despite Tiago having a fairly early pick, word has it that Mike Smith has requested Sheriffs to take the 20 slot. When asked why, Smith remarked that he had such a nice leisurely ride from the 20 post last year with Flashy Bull that he wouldn't mind doing the same thing this year.

He hardly knew there were 19 other horses in the field.
:p

All of these improvements in Post positions? This is The K Derby and not some Handycap race. The only thing you need to do is qualify for the race and then all should be treated fairly. The staggered track and field start makes a lot of sense. Line the track with 20 lanes and disqualify any runner that gets out of there lane before the break wheather just before or after the turn. What a madhouse. Lets just run a time trial instead of the derby trial and let the top finishers pick there hole. I dont think the K Derby is broke but if some of you had a chance to "improve" it, serious problems could result.

Clyde Van Dusen, pp 20; is the correct answer in 1929. sorry I was wrong about Gatodel Sole who broke from 18.

I hope you're not taking people too serious...

Post Position one took down four of the five dirt races over this track on Breeders Cup day---I believe three of which at double digit odds...and the inside is playing better now than it has in some past CD meets.

I know it's a lot different in a 20 horse field, where you have to come out slightly to avoid the rail, and you have a crush of horses trying to get inside, but all chance is CERTAINLY not lost because a horse is breaking from the rail.

With a long run into the first turn, horses drawing on the extreme outside should have every chance to work there way into an ok position.

The draw is very overrated. If you have a real nervous horse, I guess you'd ideally want post #9 or #10, as they will be one of the last three or four to load--and aren't breaking from too far out.

All in all---the post draw is massively overrated.

Its overrated unless you get the high draws, 17-20, which essentially makes you dead meat. Trips just don't somehow work out from there despite the long run to the turn.
The 1 hole may not be as bad but it does restrict your options.

Good one!

Same here! Last year I correctly predicted the 7 hole for Bob & John. This year I say Street Sense gets Cajun's 9 hole. ;)

I'm only 'watching' kentuckyderby.com for the live draw, but in case sumwon sees it before me, will you update? I'll update them with their chosen post positions as I see them go...

Any Given Saturday: 18
Bwana Bull: 11
Circular Quay: 16
Cowtown Cat: 6
Curlin: 2
Dominican: 19
Great Hunter: 20
Hard Spun: 8
Imawildandcrazyguy: 5
Liquidity: 9
Nobiz Like Shobiz: 12
Sam P.: 13
Scat Daddy: 14
Sedgefield: 1
Storm in May: 4
Stormello: 17
Street Sense: 7
Teuflesberg: 10
Tiago: 15
Zanjero: 3

Get this Race Car nonsense off the screen. Jesus.

I'll be leaving here in a bit, so I'll catch it at home. Would like to watch live, but oh well.

9 is still open Jamie! I wonder if Street Sense will take it... or Liquidity

oh shoot Jamie, good luck winning with the 9 post with Liquidity

Uh oh!!!!!!!!!

Thanks! LMFAO!!!
I'm sticking with Nobiz and Dominican. There's the exacta, wherever they start.
Horses don't do numbers despite all that hoof tapping...how old is my daughter? tap tap tap tap...

Liquidity was one of my original derby picks... holy shiat. LMAO

Street Sense drew one of my lucky numbers (I like to play the 3 and 7 normally.) :o