A lot of the so called better horses arent good enough to take advantage of the inside holes. What I cant understand is why cant a horse that makes a good trip cant be the best horse. AGS was in front of SS but chose to go outside so why say he got the worse trip. Maybe his rider didnt have the horse to take the inside.

I guess if you believe Borel that he had a lot more horse under him that could very well be the case. I don't mean to sound as if I am personally knocking Street, both horses ran tremendously.

so glad to see hard spun came back with a win. was hoping his first loss a few weeks ago was an anomaly.

Glad to see the insight on Hard Spun here. This has been my personal Derby favorite from the get-go, so from that stand point I'm glad to see he's probably going to have the earnings to get in the race. I'll be interested to see how he runs in the Blue Grass against what looks to be a loaded field. If he runs well, that will be one short price on Derby day.

Cannon, recheck your stats on this one. The outside posts (10,11,12) in routes are something like 6 for 100 this year... not GP bad but pretty tough. In sprints, outside seems to be better, or at least fair, however.

I was super impressed by this performance. I know the Polytrack throws a lot of indifference into people's analysis, but it's not like he hasn't run well on traditional dirt. No matter what the surface, he was 3 wide on a solid pace and ran away when asked. The field was spread out behind him- it was a good 10-12 lengths back to 4th place... the mark of a REALLY good performance.

I couldn't kill Pino for being 3-4 wide at Oaklawn. There was nowhere to go, and why sacrifice the horse in that race when there are bigger and better objectives down the road? Take it as a learning experience, pick up a small check, and try again.

I always think it's funny this time of the year to see how high or how low folks get on particular horses based on single performances.

I will say this: we haven't had a Derby winner from the Blue Grass in forever (or so it at least seems that way); this year's edition could certainly break that trend.

I was in the boat of throwing out the Arkansas race just based on it being one poor effort. However by the same token Saturdays race also needs to be taken with a grain of salt because of the fact that it was over Polytrack and I still hold the belief this horses future is on grass. And as we have seen the correlation between turf horses running strongly on Polytack has proven true (Sedgefield in the same race)

Hard Spun has done well on dirt as well, though.

There was more than just one horse in the Lane's End with a turfy pedigree and most didn't run a lick. Why do you think that Hard Spun has a future on the turf?

Love Danzigs on turf. And did not mean that he was a Polytrack Wonder so to speak, just that the effort doe snot mean he once again steps to the upper echelon of 3YO class anymore than one poor effort in Arkansas would move him down. I have maintained him in the 6 or 7 slot in my Top 10 since day one and he remains there still

Gotta love those a Pa. Breds:D :D
If I'm not mistaken I think Danzig was also a Pa. Bred

So is Great Hunter. :D

Those are two horses that actually have very legit chances in the derby. Wouldn't it be interesting if another PA bred won the derby? :eek:

Pennsylvania has become the haven for derby horses... NOt really ,but i would love to think so myself... I'm actually shocked to see Hard Spun bounce back like that...I for one tried to beat him Saturday. Couldnt care less about the money i lost on him, just glad to see him back in the big picture... QUICK QUESTION.. If John Servis was still conditioning, would they have left Oaklawn for Turfway???

based on the reason of Hard Spun not liking the surface....sure he would have left....

The horse seemed to work just fine at Oaklawn before his loss. So he wins on the poly at Turfway and all the sudden Jones is a friggin genius. Come on!

I think hard Spun had a very impressive performance. We saw the horse rate which is fantastic. This is something that I have been waiting to see from this horse. Quay and Sense come from the clouds. Hard Spun will get a nice trip in the Derby right behind all the speed. There are only a couple of horses that have his running style this year. I really like Hard Spun's chances in the Derby.

I liked the race by Hard Spun. He is a legitimate contender. It's not a requirement to win every Derby prep for the most part. He is a top 10 3 yr old without question in my opinion. Based on what I've seen, there is no way I could rate him below a horse like Nobiz Like Shobiz for example. And that one sits high on most lists. Sets up the Blue Grass nicely, which may be a better race than the Ky Derby. It is one of the strongest Derby preps I remember in recent years. Made more interesting by the fact that Any Given Saturday probably needs a top 2 finish to get the required earnings to earn a spot in the Ky Derby. Any prep with 4 of the top 8 3 yr olds is certainly a must see. And I think that's what you got that race.

well, since he came out of the race healthy, the trip wasn't bad, he didn't entrap, didn't bobble the start--what excuse is left but he didn't like the track?
besides, horses work well quite often and then stink on race day. who knows, maybe the surface changed between work and race.
at any rate, he only ever lost at oaklawn--so i'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
altho, there's always the oh so truthful we don't know what happened, he just lost line...

If SS ran the better race than AGS, he would've won by more than 1 inch. When two horses finish an inch apart, one closing on a fast pace while saving every inch of ground while the other is closer to the fast pace and goes wide on the second turn, I don't think its hard to see why most feel AGS ran the superior race.

Did you see the race? The inside was there but he chose to go outside. AGS was ahead of SS and chose to go outside. How can you say AGS was better mthan SS.

If jockey chose to go outside yet horse still ran SS to a nose decision, how does that not make it a superior race. Have to agree with JJP

As of 3/24 post 10 in route races at TP was 12%.

Hey Cannon,
Did everyone ship ok?? Are you back at Churchill?

Don't know why anyone would try to separate 'the superior race' from between Any Given Saturday and Street Sense at Tampa or what is accomplished in trying to do so...

Saturday had the advantagve of a race over the surface and 2nd/start off the layoff... Street Sense had the disadvantage of first start off a 100+ day layoff and a trip over the slower part of the track... Saturday lost some ground on the turn and Street saved some... They arrived at the wire together. Equally terrific performances and neither deserves to be identified as 'superior'.

They each were superb and they both exit the race as worthy of praise and expectations of ongoing excellence this campaign.

I see the above post as viewing the glass as half full rather alot of posts lately as trying to make a case for the glass being half empty...IMHO both performances were very good but for different reasons.

Steve

I was just making the comment that jockey decision to go outside on AGS does not lower the effort he put in. If anything it makes it stronger that he overcame the decision

jjf,

Agree.. I'd also say that Johnny V's constant over/under shoulder glancing to watch for Street Sense worked against Any Given Saturday.. Takes a horse and rider out of their rhythm..

interesting... i looked at a sample size of 120 races from Sept-Dec, and the breakdown was as follows for races a mile and greater:
1: 15/120
2: 22/120
3: 14/120
4: 17/120
5: 10/120
6: 12/120
7: 12/114
8: 8/103
9: 3/87
10: 3/66
11: 2/46
12: 3/21

So the outside 4 posts were a combined 11 for 220 (5%). Once again... not GP bad but certainly a disadvantage.

Phil..

Would actually be 11 of 153, no?

87 with 9 horses; another 20 with 10; 25 with 11 and 21 with 12..

220 starters in 120 races; of which 87 had at least 9 starters, 66 >=10 starters, 46 >=11 starters, and 21 >= 12 starters. I see how you are looking at it but I think you've got yourself mixed up- if you said "how did the inside 2 posts do" you'd say 37 for 240, right?

I would say 37 for 120. There is only the finite universe of number of opportunities (races). There wouldn't be 220 opps for the 1 or 2.. only the 120 opps. But you're likely right as there were 21 opps for the 12 to win; 46 for the 11, etc..

Fair point. End result is the post position isn't insurmountable like at GP at a mile and an eighth or Aqueduct inner at a mile (I just looked at 91 races from there and the 8 post was 4 for 62, the 9 post was 1 for 36, and the 10 post was 0 for 18... brutal. They shouldn't even run that distance on the inner.)

This is something I really dont like jocks to do with younger horses. JV is very good, but I have seen him do this before and the horse quits paying attention to his purpose. I know JV needs to make a decision on what to do, and maybe he is experimenting (if the horse will keep on task), but I have seen horses lose their concentration and rythym based on what they feel the jockey doing up top.

Some of these horses are not cars that will just keep going while you glance around, even with foot on pedal.

P,

It's more than losing focus too.. There's the matter of distribution of weight. When a jock shifts his body or shoulders to sneak a peak, it changes the balance above and causes a horse a loss of fluidity or action that is measureable ultimately in lost ground. When you talk about losing photos by the width of a piece of paper, it becomes important.. Velasquez looked 4 times for Street Sense on and out of the turn.

The point is: "Ride YOUR horse.. don't try to ride your opponents."

Or as Woody Allen said in "Love and Death" (I think).. "My Uncle Vladimir, not a smart man, but, you know, wise.. always said, 'You can't ride two horses with one tuchas.'"

Oh it is very evident to me that weight shifting, even subtle, can make a large difference in a horse. I watched my wife many hours in dressage lessons and hunter-jumper shows (bored stiff). I was just thinking that maybe JV is so good that the horse might not feel JV's weight shift while looking around, maybe he has perfected it. I dont know, Im not a jock, and I know the guy is very good at what he does. So I am careful to question his tactics.

What it amounts to is both horses ran there race and SS won. If they both run again I look for similar style and maybe AGS will turn the table but dont tell me AGS was the best horse in last. The finish tells te tale.

September races should not be combined with the winter results because they track plays a little different when it is warm like Sept versus the cold weather days. At least it does in my opinion. Not that that is worth much.

If you're including mile races the stats might be skewed. TP has a really short run to the turn at a mile. If you threw out the mile races you might find the outside posts doing better.

Like most tracks -- they don't run many races at 8.5f and above. Tough to get a statistically significant stat from such a small sample.

that is good point

Shipped well and back at CD