" Instant gratification ", at the racetrack, is for losers. We are all in this for the long run. The same mentality that worries about when they DON'T win in this current discussion will also lead to trying to " get out " in the last race. There is only one actual " last " race to a horseplayer and in general we don't know when that is coming. A horseplayer does not divide his playing by days....just by cumulative results.

Exactly the point I was making... (or trying to.)

There are those (like my Dad, for example) who love to just bet on the triple crown days, etc. For him, instant gratification is what he wants. He's not a real horseplayer.

I didn't mean to start an arguement here, LOL. I understand the points made, and absent of specifics, a specific race, facts, etc., we are speaking conceptually. I thought there might be a "norm" or "smart play" kind of thing.

I guess the real answer is -- for me -- in this situation, is to very quickly seek out my friend Andy and ask him what to do, LOL.

I think in every situation we tend to weigh risk/reward, our interpretation or perceived "value" so to speak, emotions I would guess, and experience, along with a host of other elements.

Generically speaking, I think in certain situations place -- and show -- betting can be used as a hedge. I've bet plenty of horses -- who were not the favorite -- across the board, where they've run second or third. Running second, I make money somtimes -- of course not a lot. Running third, I mostly lose money, but get something back. Perhaps this is a "whimp" way of looking at it and playing. But I've done this when I don't have strong feelings and opinions about gimmicks.

On the other hand, how could you use the exacta as a hedge? If you bet an exacta (or a couple of exactas) with the favorite on top -- you are betting against yourself -- right? Use the non-favorite on top and he comes in, but you don't hit the exacta, you diluted your win (or WP, WPS) bet, right?

I completely understand this is far to generic in nature in order to arrive at an answer.

Anyway, thank you again for your advice and again, pardon my naivete.

Eric

Eric,

Please don't apologize. This has been a very informative thread and I've enjoyed reading it. It's gratifying to read the different points of views that come into play on this message board. Thanks for posting the topic!

Jamie

An excellent point on betting against yourself. I didn't even bring that up. These are the same people betting 3 horses to win the same race.

Grits, we are going in circles...Who cares if you talk to someone betting on horses for a 100 years, that's no argument in favor of it. Did that same person tally up what he would've gotten to place over all those years? Probably not. Or maybe he just had a habit of picking the second place horse in every race. Who knows? Maybe we can chart the next 500 races in NY and SA and see who's method comes out ahead. That might be good for the board. Scavs is a pro and these charts and I'm sure he wouldn't mind doing it....I'm joking Scavs, you don't have to do it---

I like that idea Randall. Find 200 races where the second finisher was between 10-1 and 20-1 and see if you do better betting $2 to place or a $2 exacta beneath the favorite.

Value betting is one of my gigs, and I have been successfull spreading a value horse. First, why in the hell would anyone bet a horse less than 4-1. This amazes me to no end. Long haul, short haul, you can't take less than 4-1 on a major bet. You will be starting the death march from Subic Bay, Phillipines. Every race isn't betable, you got to pick your spots, or be pick pocketed.
Of course, when you visit the track as a vacationer, the money doen't matter, your a short timer, having some fum, and will toss the loose cash in the pool, I LOVE YOU FOLKS.

Exacta's will kill you, place bets will suck you dry, so what can you do? Try a Key spread on a tri.

1/2345/23456

Win bet hard

Hard earned money well spent, win or lose

Nope that's not how it would be done. It would simply be charting all races. You are assuming the favorite is winning. You would do every race. Sometimes it would work out with the fave over a longshot and sometimes it won't. That's the only way it would work....You would only be using races where the favorite wins and obviously when they win at only a 30% clip, that would be faulty.

I'm gonna tell ya like a friend here RS, if you could get rid of that undulating little tart for an avatar, honestly darlin' I could take you a lot more seriously in regard to horseplaying.

As far as my mentor you don't wanna mess with me there. I've spent years listening to this man. I CARE, very much. Because, he's forgotten more than someone that plays on weekends, or casually, and bets ATB on longshots will learn in a lifetime. He played day in, day out. It was his living for a very longtime. He still plays. He's very good at it. AND when you do this for a living--you keep impeccable records, not to mention the involvement with CHARTS before Formulator came along. I imagine he kept charts on a point such as this as well. Good horseplayers know what works over the long haul.

You and I'll do fine RS, we just disagree on this and that's ok.

I second that motion.

I've kept records since 2000 for tax purposes.

Changed my avatar for you(i change it twice a week)
And if its a relative, I wasn't knocking you caring about them--sorry if you took it that way.

As for the charting I will be happy to do it. I will come up with some ground rules and we can both agree on those, but the only way to do it is to chart every single race that a longshot---over 10-1 finishes second regardless of where the favorite finishes....Give me some time to set this up.

Thanks for changing your avatar RS, I know you feel better now! LOL

The thing to do here is pick one race meet only, or two at the most, don't jump all over the country like someone with A.D.D., Gulfstream runs several more weeks, so does Santa Anita.

It would be better for someone that is in to this, as you say Scav is.

I just looked up 17 days at Aqueduct and found 25 examples where horses finished second at ANYTHING over 10-1.....you got a total of $371.30 if you bet place and $626.50 if you used them all second to the favorite in the exacta.

If I just focus on 10-1 to 20-1 the numbers are $156.70 for place and $225.60 for the exacta.

It's only 25 races....but the blind exacta is looking VERY strong.

It really is simple in my small mind. Its your money and whatever satisfaction, gratification etc you wanna get from betting the horses you will do. It may not be the "best" way, and you may go for decades on the losing end of the pendelum. Thats fine, cause its your money. On the other side of that pendelum.......................................... ......

Their will be people who will wager different, a "better" way and in the long run, over decades, they will "profit".

Who is happier?

Of course Randall....you look at any race where the second horse was over 10-1 and see what you got for place and whether or not you hit the exacta. If the favorite doesn't run second you get zero for the exacta.

I am not assuming the favorite ran second. I am using EVERY race where the place horse was over 10-1.

Andy, is that really the fair or comparitive analysis? I mean, I am just thinking this through, but how would you know, in hindsight, that you would play that 10-1 to 20-1 horse (that finished second) as opposed to another 10-1 to 20-1 horse? Do you then expand the play to include a second exacta underneath the favorite?

Thanks.

Eric

Eric, that's not the point. It is an analysis of how ONE would have done had they bet THAT SPECIFIC LONGSHOT in one or the other manner. The ones that don't finish second can't be used in an analysis because you lost your $2 whether you bet place or and exacta. It's the only way you can do the study.

I would like to see a sample of 500 and will grab the charts weekly at DRF to get a larger sample size. It's too cumbersome running through charts on Formulator.

OK -- I have to think this through, LOL. Thanks.

Eric

Also, in doing this, one has to keep in mind. This bet is not made in the first place without one clear and solid, postime favorite.

You'll see what I mean.

Believe me, I thought the same thing when I started. Just think about it as completely hypothetical. It's sort of counterintuitive because it is by its very nature " resulting "....but that's how it has to be done.

I'm not making someone else run this Grits. I will do it. You can check everything I do and I'm about as honest as it comes which the others can attest to. Plus, I'm as interested in the results as you are.

Aqueduct is a funny track to use as the fields are smaller, but that makes the payoffs lower, and I would love to look at Turfway and Gulfstream.

Like I said, I will grab some charts weeklys from DRF, and maybe we can get a real sample size. I think it's a neat study.

By their very nature, the exactas should be better, as the takeout is dispersed to two horses. However, the results I got from the small sample were pretty incredible. I was pretty surprised. But, it was only a group of 25. 500 - 1000 would be better.

OK, not to sound selfish, but when the study is done -- can someone please help me out and let me know how this info can help me? Please!!! I need all the help I can get, LOL.

Eric

Just follow along in the contest thread. If it is clear one method is better than another, then you could follow the advice of that and bet accordingly.

Back to the original thread........ Powerscourt getting DQ'd in the Arlington Million.....missed the P4 (I think it was over 2K) Not a big loss compared to most on here....but it was an agonizing 10 minute inquiry.

Nothing quite like getting DQ'd for real money. Might be one of the sickest feelings imaginable.

I once bet $300 on a 5-1 shot with Wiggy Ramos ( 9th race on a Sunday at Belmont ) who got DQ'd. Ramos NEVER rode another race in NY. You can look it up....it was a Jimmy Bond horse at the Belmont Spring-Summer meeting of 1995. Probably early in the meet.

2004 Breeder's Cup for sure. I spent 3-4 hours the night before handicapping the Pick 6. I'm not a big money player so I came up with a ticket somewhere around $150. My roomate and I were going to split the cost and share the ticket. Living in Lexington we were going to Keeneland the next day to meet friends, place the wager, and watch the races. The night before we went out and I for some reason tried to break the world record for most Red Bull and Vodkas consumed in one night. We got in around 5 AM and needless to say didn't wake up in time to place the wager. Long story short.... I had 5 of 6 which WOULD have paid 56,000+. The only horse I missed was Wilko which I actually helped foal and raise. I thought $7.50 for the Red Bull and Vodka was expensive, little did I know a whole night of them would cost 56K.:eek:

Props for having Giacomo PERIOD. I tossed him... :o

I also liked Closing Argument and Afleet Alex, but not to win. I was on the Bellamy Road bandwagon.

Had a horse I owned that I'd claimed for $C5k. He'd won two races after I claimed him then he went sour, didn't hit the board in 4 or 5 races and was beaten everytime by over 20.

Gave him 60 days off, then 60 more to train back to a race. On paper his form looked terrible coming off the layoff. In the paddock, my trainer just looked at me and for the first time ever, said "He's ready to go".

Usually don't bet my horses but played a little over $100 of tri's and ex's. He went off 14-1. Hit with a Lake horse and a Capuano horse underneath and walked out with over $6k in my pocket.

Turned around and ran him two weeks later in the 9f Old Man Winter at Philly Park. Hammered him again in the tri's with two of Lake's horses and walked out of there with over $10k.

Used the cash to buy another horse - spent what was left in about 6 months training/feeding his sorry, slow
[/i]

Great story, phystech!

When I counsel novices about going into a casino, I normally mention that the vast majority of people walking OUT of a casino have lost $$.

So therefore, if you walk out of the casino with $50 more in your pocket than you walked in with, you're likely in the top 33% of winners for the day. The moral is, have the gumption to walk while you're ahead.

I give the same advice at the race track.

Just make it the goal to win a few bucks each day.

Most of the people betting horses looking for the "big hit" as their goal are not going to end up happy on a frequent basis.

Pick your plays, play your plays, and have a good time. And celebrate your wins, however small they might be!

almost score!
 

I Was At The Del Mar Satellite And Damn Near Took The Whole Superfecta Pool At Sunland. I Had A 1.00 Dollar Straight Super And Didnt Flip The Last 2 Numbers And It Wouldve Paid All. I Was Ready To Hang Myself As The Winner Was Like 49 To 1 And Pool I Believe Was 53,000 Bucks.

Props for having Giacomo PERIOD. I tossed him...

I also liked Closing Argument and Afleet Alex, but not to win. I was on the Bellamy Road bandwagon

Well I had him just now in the top spot.lol I had just loved Closing Arguement in his last 3 starts before the Derby. Some overlooked him because he wasnt winning everything, but if you looked at his pps he was on the board in every race. I mean he was there every time. Boy now if he could have won, I would have loved it. The money would have been great but that I had been telling everyone and anyone how much I liked him. The bragging rights ya know.;)

I had Invisible Ink at 55-1 underneath Point Given on a couple of tri and super tickets, along with Monarchos. PG's Derby will always be one of the most disappointing races I've witnessed.

No one will remember this horse unless you're from Chicago but I and a couple of partners pretty much bought out the super using Bada Boom making his second start on grass with Zoe Cadman up at 70-1. We got beat by a Block horse (I believe Ioya Forever) and although we had the tri as a backup (paid like 3K) we were sick to see the super with the favorite paid over 45K and there were 2 tickets cashed. Still makes me sick writing this.

2002 BC Sprint-If Thunderello(avatar) only held on for a few more yards...ARRRRRG!!

Ended up with a just a big place bet, makes the subthread in here look great!!

Two years ago on BC day I was betting $1 tri boxes with 4 horses in almost every race. Had 3 of the first 4 finishers in a race 5 times that day and didn't hit one tri. Hit a bunch of exactas tho. Still I think the tri's I missed added up to about 7 grand.