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-   -   Any Derby Pool 1 thoughts? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9672)

miraja2 02-11-2007 07:25 AM

Right now Notional is 39/1. Obviously that will probably change over the course of the day given his performance yesterday.
Two questions:
1) What do you guys think his odds will be by the time it closes today?
2) When does it close exactly?

Dunbar 02-11-2007 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Right now Notional is 39/1. Obviously that will probably change over the course of the day given his performance yesterday.
Two questions:
1) What do you guys think his odds will be by the time it closes today?
2) When does it close exactly?

It closes at 6pm EST today. The Oaks pool stays open longer, 6:30 I think.

About half the money will be bet into the Derby pool today. I'm (wildly) guessing that Notional will close near 20-1.

--Dunbar

SCUDSBROTHER 02-11-2007 01:39 PM

Not gunna get 50-1 on Liquidity.Pretty much this thing is a loser deal.I mean, you can't even get odds on a horse who is getting beat.

Dunbar 02-11-2007 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
Not gunna get 50-1 on Liquidity.Pretty much this thing is a loser deal.I mean, you can't even get odds on a horse who is getting beat.

Yeah, no way to beat this bet. There's that 16% takeout to overcome. Oh yeah, it's the same takeout as most races. I guess the other bettors must be too smart. You're up against some shrewd bettors, like those who have already dumped a few thou on Dreaming of Anna, whose trainer says she's now going to stay on dirt (much less, run against the boys anytime soon.) And then there's all the money that was bet on horses that ran yesterday before they ran, like Lawrence The Roman. Yeah, this looks hopeless alright.

--Dunbar

MajestikMX 02-11-2007 02:25 PM

A little value in everything!!!
 
Check your cars ashtray or take back some cans & bottles for the deposit...if applicable, Just for $2 in change... Put $2 on anything and quite possibly in May, IF that horse wears the roses and you can hopefully find your ticket, there will be some value in cashing in an old wrinkled ticket, worth digging in that dirty ashtray, worth taking back sticky, raunchy smelling beer cans, for just $2 you might just win $40, $60 $100 or even more. Most people have a dollar and a dream everytime the lotto comes up 2 or 3x a week, why not as horseplayers we just have some fun with the futures?

SCUDSBROTHER 02-11-2007 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
Yeah, no way to beat this bet.
--Dunbar

AGREE...This far out,you need much better odds than these.Almost 90 days to avoid an injury.That's a long time for this breed.

Hickory Hill Hoff 02-11-2007 02:40 PM

F.P. rules!!!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by estreetposse
Check your cars ashtray or take back some cans & bottles for the deposit...if applicable, Just for $2 in change... Put $2 on anything and quite possibly in May, IF that horse wears the roses and you can hopefully find your ticket, there will be some value in cashing in an old wrinkled ticket, worth digging in that dirty ashtray, worth taking back sticky, raunchy smelling beer cans, for just $2 you might just win $40, $60 $100 or even more. Most people have a dollar and a dream everytime the lotto comes up 2 or 3x a week, why not as horseplayers we just have some fun with the futures?

Welcome aboard! The first of a trio...I hope of the "Hilltopper" gang.
All we need to get on board are The "Backwheel" & "AppleMan".
Once you post here...it becomes an addiction.
When those guys join...Myra's boys will be complete.
The "valley" invasion has begun! :cool:

Hickory Hill Hoff 02-11-2007 02:53 PM

The three from each pool (Derby/Oaks) that are worth a deuce -
ANY GIVEN SATURDAY, LIQUIDITY & RAVEL
BOCA GRANDE, OCTAVE & MISTICAL PLAN

MajestikMX 02-11-2007 03:48 PM

Just stopped to see Yak and the new "Myra" this wasn't doesn't say OH NOOO!!!!! when I come in though, but at least they got a new machine.

Just plopped some $$ down, didn't take any cans back though!!!

I don't know about "Backwheel" and "AppleMan" though, we'll have to work on them.

zippyneedsawin 02-11-2007 03:59 PM

at 7/2, the field looks like the best choice to me for the oaks future bet right now.

Hickory Hill Hoff 02-11-2007 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by estreetposse
Just stopped to see Yak and the new "Myra" this wasn't doesn't say OH NOOO!!!!! when I come in though, but at least they got a new machine.

Just plopped some $$ down, didn't take any cans back though!!!

I don't know about "Backwheel" and "AppleMan" though, we'll have to work on them.

Who did you go with in the "futures" ???

Hickory Hill Hoff 02-11-2007 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by estreetposse
Just stopped to see Yak and the new "Myra" this wasn't doesn't say OH NOOO!!!!! when I come in though, but at least they got a new machine.
Just plopped some $$ down, didn't take any cans back though!!!

I don't know about "Backwheel" and "AppleMan" though, we'll have to work on them.

I'm sure Yak was @ the VFW by 5:01 :D

MajestikMX 02-11-2007 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff
Who did you go with in the "futures" ???

I took a handful...
Any Given Sat.
Notional
Drums of Thunder-was coming hard
Great Hunter

Stayed out of the Oaks till later action, Never get to watch it anyways!

Dunbar 02-11-2007 04:47 PM

A good-sized late bet on Circular Quay has knocked the odds down to 12-1 with about 12 minutes left to bet!

--Dunbar

deltaforce97 02-11-2007 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
A good-sized late bet on Circular Quay has knocked the odds down to 12-1 with about 12 minutes left to bet!

--Dunbar

I am a fan of CQ, but I cannot touch him at that price!!

Hickory Hill Hoff 02-11-2007 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by estreetposse
I took a handful...
Any Given Sat.
Notional
Drums of Thunder-was coming hard
Great Hunter

Stayed out of the Oaks till later action, Never get to watch it anyways!

Ended up "Pletcherize" took Any Given Saturday, Circular Quay & Ravel.
& in the Oaks - Octave & Boca Grande ...just loved that Shug runner since the Spa.
It doesn't hurt putting a deuce or two on this bet...after all it is gambling :D

Kasept 02-11-2007 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
Not gunna get 50-1 on Liquidity.Pretty much this thing is a loser deal.I mean, you can't even get odds on a horse who is getting beat.

Liquidity ended 33-1.. Got down on him as Vegas is offering similar...

Dunbar 02-11-2007 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Liquidity ended 33-1.. Got down on him as Vegas is offering similar...

Liquidity was tempting, but I didn't go for it. I took a whole LOT of "All others", and a small amount of Adore The Gold, which I think also closed at 33-1.

--Dunbar


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