Derby Trail Forums - The hype on Top Billing has gone overboard

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- - The hype on Top Billing has gone overboard (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=53008)

Quote:

Originally Posted by LITF (Post 966739)

I am just a minor player, once a month at most. I played today and, unfortunately, got crushed so I'm not sure my opinion means anything. But I thought the bias was clearly evident. I also thought there were two horses going forward that I wanted to play on the derby trail after today at Gulfstream. They were Mexikoma and Top Billing. I have never been a fan of Mexikoma but he closed into moderate fractions (24.31, 47.71, 1.11.03) and did so against the bias. With where he was positioned in the race coupled with how the track was playing I think that pretty much eliminated him from win contention. All that said, I thought he ran lights out and will be looking forward to playing him back next time, depending, of course, on where he shows up. Top Billing had faster fractions to close into (23.03, 46.25, 1.10.13) but he had much better horses to close down and had every right to tire with his trip. I thought he was a winner with an eighth of a mile to run so it was disappointing to see him not be able to close it down but I think this was the perfect prep and so long as the Gulfstream strip is not a speedway come Florida Derby day I will be playing him. If people think he is the Derby frontrunner I don't see why they should back off of that after today. The only knock I can find is the way East Hall ran. The Pletcher horses, on the other hand, looked dreadful.

Being a novice I am interested if others saw these races the same as I did or if I am just someone who doesn't know the horses! I appreciate any feedback. As for the Risen Star, I think those horses are not even worth discussing. Thanks in advance. I need all the help I can get.

I thought Mexicoma ran a solid race too.

But...

Rick Mettee?????

I'd just as soon have Randy Bradshaw or Alex Hassinger train a horse.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LITF (Post 966739)

As for the Risen Star, I think those horses are not even worth discussing. Thanks in advance. I need all the help I can get.

I think there needs to be some discussion about the top finishers in the Fairgrounds race. Do I think any of the horses I saw in the Risen Star could beat Cairo Prince? No. But, I'm not convinced what was running in the Fountain of Youth was any better than what was at FG. At least as far as Derby potential is concerned. At a mile and sixteenth, Wildcat Red and General Arod can carry their speed that far. But much further? Speed bias or not, I have serious questions about that.

With the way Gulfstream was playing today, Intense Holiday probably wouldn't have won the Fountain of Youth. But on paper was he really all that much worse than the others in the FoY?

by the way, does anyone have link to view the AOC race at Gulfstream today? The 6th?

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 966742)

by the way, does anyone have link to view the AOC race at Gulfstream today? The 6th?

http://tnetwork.trakus.com/tnet/t_Gu...TBRED&Venue=20

I think that race will prove to be unproductive. I think Vicar's In Trouble's race was best but it was just okay. There isn't a lot to be excited about moving forward on the derby trail from here. Maybe Hopppertunity and Commanding Curve will run better with more distance but I don't think there fast enough to factor in the later prep races. However, I will be rooting for them.

I love Bayern. I think he's the real deal and if he can get to Churchill he will have a big shot. I also like Tamarando...maybe because I have had too much to drink but that's okay! Let's hope he doesn't see dirt until the Derby.

There was a huge speed bias today at Gulfstream. Front runners had a conveyer belt and there are 3 horses that are on my Watch list for next out

Mexikoma
East Hall
Top Billing

I thought it was a rail bias as much as speed and he basically saved ground from the start of the first turn until halfway around the 2nd turn, which wasn't that bad. And he never had to hesitate for even a second making his move.

Tonalist I thought ran well, since he made an early/wide move behind Constitution.

Quote:

Originally Posted by helicopter11 (Post 966751)

There was a huge speed bias today at Gulfstream. Front runners had a conveyer belt and there are 3 horses that are on my Watch list for next out

Mexikoma
East Hall
Top Billing

If you're gonna give Mexicoma a chance to improve next out, I think you should for Wicked Strong as well. Mexicoma definitely outfinished him, but WS kinda got brushed and slightly lost momentum mid-stretch. I think he could've fought for 3rd if that didn't happen

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 966779)

If you're gonna give Mexicoma a chance to improve next out, I think you should for Wicked Strong as well. Mexicoma definitely outfinished him, but WS kinda got brushed and slightly checked mid-stretch. I think he could've fought for 3rd if that didn't happen

Saw the replay again. You are right about Wicked Strong. On the list he goes...Thanks!

I am just wondering...I am still fairly new to the game, but I always read about respecting a horse who makes a middle move and goes against a track bias. From what I saw, it seems that TB did just that. Now, when I come on here to see what people are saying about him, it seems as though people are not that impressed. Did I miss something or is there something I need to realize when I watch the replay? I am trying to learn what to look for in these prep races.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 966779)

Im not giving Wicked Strong as much of a pass here. He already had his comeback, and ran like **** in the Holy Bull. Mexicoma might be OK. I would like to see these horses pointed to the Wood. I think that track would give them a better chance to run well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coup Verville (Post 966951)

I think Top Billing is a fine closer, just underlaid in every race because of his gigantic fanbase. Maybe he goes on to win his next start and the Derby, but I'm not touching a horse that I know people are attached to as much as Top Billing's fans are.

Mexikoma and Wicked Strong would be better ones to go with for value purposes.

It all depends on the kind of wager your playing in the derby...personally I'm not sold on the horse winning anything but he is the kinda horse that you can build exotics around imo...and for the derby that can be very very profitable..