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-   -   National Presidential Election contest thread (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=48857)

Riot 10-30-2012 07:45 PM
Reuters/Ipsos Poll
Quote:
With two weeks to go before Election Day, a new Reuters/Ipsos forecast released today predicts an Electoral College landslide for President Barack Obama over Republican rival Mitt Romney.

Obama leads Romney by a point in the Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll, 47-46. But results from Ipsos' tracking in key swing states leads to a projection of a much bigger Electoral College victory. The Ipsos projection has Obama winning the big three swing states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

Ipsos' final Electoral College score: Obama wins 332-206. Here's what the firm's projected map looks like:

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/obama...#ixzz2ApgOrnjd
Nate Silver Five-Thirty-Eight

Quote:
Obama wins 194.6 vs 243.4

Ocala Mike 10-30-2012 07:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riot (Post 899363)

The electoral count closest to the winner "wins" first - the correct Pres. pick only comes into play to break a tie.
Like I say, I like where I'm sitting, strategically (although I'm rooting for Joey)!

dalakhani 10-30-2012 11:02 PM
Obama 281

Ocala Mike 10-31-2012 01:03 AM
National Presidential Election contest thread
 
Well played, dalakhani. I hope you made the cutoff.

Rudeboyelvis 10-31-2012 11:40 AM
Obama and Romney will take their expected leaning and likely states, leaving a 95 votes up for grabs.

Obama will likely take OH(18) and WI(10).

Romney will likely take CO(9), FL(29), IA(6), NH(4), NV(6), and VA(10)

Final total - Romney 273; Obama 265

hi_im_god 10-31-2012 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 899409)
Obama and Romney will take their expected leaning and likely states, leaving a 95 votes up for grabs.

Obama will likely take OH(18) and WI(10).

Romney will likely take CO(9), FL(29), IA(6), NH(4), NV(6), and VA(10)

Final total - Romney 273; Obama 265
i don't see a single poll putting romney ahead in nevada. he's between 2.5 to 4.1 behind in most models. it's certainly not beyond a romney get but that seems like the longest stretch in what you're assuming. ohio looks tighter than nevada.

Rudeboyelvis 10-31-2012 12:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hi_im_god (Post 899412)
i don't see a single poll putting romney ahead in nevada. he's between 2.5 to 4.1 behind in most models. it's certainly not beyond a romney get but that seems like the longest stretch in what you're assuming. ohio looks tighter than nevada.
The most recent poll for Nevada that I can find (NBC News / WSJ / Marist College) show 50-47 Obama with a 2% uncommitted and margin of error of +/- 5%.

If you want to make that bet, be my guest.

Rudeboyelvis 10-31-2012 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 899417)
The most recent poll for Nevada that I can find (NBC News / WSJ / Marist College) show 50-47 Obama with a 2% uncommitted and margin of error of +/- 5%.

If you want to make that bet, be my guest.
The most recent OH numbers are much closer, as I'mgod alluded to - the two most recent (10/28) polls:

Grove - 48/45 Obama
Rasmussen - 50-48 Romney

So it may well come down to who wins OH, but this notion that Obama can win the EC without OH does not add up.

pointmanscousin 10-31-2012 01:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riot (Post 897805)
Pick the final electoral college count of the winning candidate.

You do not have to pick the winning candidate - only the electoral college vote count that candidate acquires.

Contest closes one week from today at 6:30pm (one week before the election).

There are 538 electoral votes. Thus your number must be a number between 270 (required to win) and 538.

No duplicate numbers - first come, first serve.

Winning number is closest to actual winning number without going over.

In case of ties, winner will be closest number under, with correct candidate chosen.
Jimmy cracked corn.....and I don't care.

Riot 10-31-2012 01:41 PM
Let's leave the contest open until day before election day - why not?

So far:

311 Romney - joeydb
291 Obama - hi im god
288 Obama - Riot
287 Obama - Ocala Mike
281 Obama - dalakhani
273 Romney - Rudeboyelvis
269 tie to Romney - clipclop

dylbert 10-31-2012 10:21 PM
Romney = 274

Riot 10-31-2012 10:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dylbert (Post 899631)
Romney = 274
:tro:

pointmanscousin 10-31-2012 11:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riot (Post 899437)
Let's leave the contest open until day before election day - why not?

So far:

311 Romney - joeydb
291 Obama - hi im god
288 The Egyption - Riot(Jihadist)
287 Obama - Ocala Mike
281 Obama - dalakhani
273 Romney - Rudeboyelvis
269 tie to Romney - clipclop
Jimmy Cracked Corn himself does not care-pointmanscousin
4444

Rupert Pupkin 11-01-2012 01:41 AM
Romney 278

bigrun 11-01-2012 11:48 AM
Obama just aced the election
Today's report on CNBC
Un-employment numbers down
Production numbers up
Housing numbers up
Auto sales up


Still time to change your number..

Also, yesterday the Donald made a humanitarian gesture to Obama, he extended the date of his offer to 5pm today....haha, you thought he gave the 5 mil to the Red Cross..:D

Also Colbert extended his offer of 1 mil to Trump to 5pm today...

bigrun 11-01-2012 12:12 PM
Oct. 31: Obama’s Electoral College ‘Firewall’ Holding in Polls.


Quote:
Theories that the decline in Mr. Obama’s polls that followed the first presidential debate in Denver would somehow skip the swing states were not looking good — as dubious as the idea that tornadoes “skip” houses.

Instead, at that point, Mr. Obama’s position in the FiveThirtyEight forecast had declined for seven consecutive days. If he stopped the bleeding there, he might still be the Electoral College favorite, albeit a narrow one. But it wasn’t clear where the bottom was.

It turned out, however, that the worst was almost over for him. Mr. Obama had one more terrible day in the polls, on Friday, Oct. 12, when Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to almost 40 percent in the forecast. But that was when Mr. Romney’s momentum stopped.

Since then, Mr. Obama’s standing has rebounded slightly. His position in the national polls has stabilized; although the national polls continue to tell a different story about the race than the state polls do; it can no longer be said that they have Mr. Obama behind. Read more…

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Rupert Pupkin 11-01-2012 01:18 PM
For what it's worth, Obama is now given a 66% chance of winning at Intrade. Romney is actually now a pretty big favorite to win Florida. They give Romney a 72% chance of winning Florida. They give Obama a 68% chance to win Ohio.

bigrun 11-01-2012 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 899711)
For what it's worth, Obama is now given a 66% chance of winning at Intrade. Romney is actually now a pretty big favorite to win Florida. They give Romney a 72% chance of winning Florida. They give Obama a 68% chance to win Ohio.
Please don't let it come down to Fla again...those old people there don't know how to use those hanging chad ballots...Is Jeb Bush still gov there?:D

Riot 11-01-2012 02:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 899711)
For what it's worth, Obama is now given a 66% chance of winning at Intrade. Romney is actually now a pretty big favorite to win Florida. They give Romney a 72% chance of winning Florida. They give Obama a 68% chance to win Ohio.
Or, a different opinion:
Quote:
As always, these are the TPM poll composites, with all pollsters included, even the GOP ones like Rasmussen and Gravis.

Florida flipped back Red today after it was briefly Blue yesterday because of outfits Gravis and We Ask America.

But regardless, the credible pollsters see it as a one-point game one way or another. So whether it's a 0.5-point Obama or Romney edge, fact is Florida is being decided by GOTV.

Florida and Nevada have seen very little change since a week ago, proving to be the most stubbornly stable of the lot. North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio have edged up half a point or so, which may not seem like much, but it's Democratic direction and at the right time.

Romney and his allies are spending gazillions trying to drag Ohio and Wisconsin back into contention, but the numbers are going the opposite way.

As I noted yesterday, Romney's own support continues to fall.

He is now above 47 percent in just two states—Florida and North Carolina. Being stuck in the 44s to 46s won't get him anywhere near the White House.

State Obama Romney Margin Change from 10/24

National 47.4 46.1 1.3 +1.3

Colorado 48.9 46.3 2.6 +2.7

Florida 48.5 49 -0.5 -0.1

Iowa 48.9 45.2 3.7 +2.8

New Hampshire 48.3 45.2 3.1 +2.1

Nevada 50.3 46.1 4.2 +0.3

North Carolina 46.5 48 -1.5 +0.7

Ohio 49.2 46 3.2 +0.6

Virginia 48.9 46.4 2.5 +2.7

Wisconsin 49.4 46.1 3.3 +0.5

Calzone Lord 11-04-2012 11:24 AM
I see the election going 277-to-261 for Barack Hussein Obama.

Romney will pull off a few upsets. I think he wins New Hampshire. I think he wins Colorado even though most polls show him trailing there.

But, he falls just a bit short in the state of Ohio...and that costs him everything.


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