It's like Stay Thirsty no longer exists..

Ummm.... huh?

If there is a pace collapse and Ruler on Ice is ridden properly I think he can absolutely clunk up for 3rd or 4th.

He's one of the few to have won at 1 1/4.

3 starts outside NY, 3double digit losses.
It seems like he runs better @ NY tracks than anywhere else.
I've heard how 3yr olds mature and get better rapidly, I just don't see him winning even though he does have a win @ 1 1/4.

I don't think NY has anything to do with Stay Thirsty winning a couple of races.

I think it's more of a matter of the quality of fields he faces.

any thoughts on to honor and serve off the penna derby?

No love for Game On Dude?? He adores 10 panels. Not saying he is necessarily the winner, but he will put away any horse that tries to run with him through the first mile.

Big difference between putting away Tres Borrachos and what he'll face at Churchill. I would also like him more if he ran better away from California this year.

If nothing else he'll provide the pace, which should unsure a fair race. But isn't he going to be facing much, much better horses than have beaten him already this year?

The more I think about this race, the more I think it has to completely collapse.

Game On Dude will be sent because they've decided he needs to be.

To Honor and Serve will be looking for the lead.

Shackleford will be up there.

Mo can sort of rate--maybe--but he'll be very close.

Tizway likes to lay close.

Like I said, I think Mo and Tizway are much the best, but I can't really play them here. Feels like you HAVE to bet Flat Out if the race stays intact.

Why not the immortal Giant Oak?

Ya I'll use him too probably. . . check your PMs

:tro:

I think you have to respect Mo's talent and keep him on multi race tickets especially with this field not being the strongest of classics. However, playing the race alone I have to be against him... call it being a wise guy if you want.

No way am I gonna take 2-1 on a horse who's worst race came at 9f (sick or not) and who's going to be close to what looks to shape up as a quick pace up front. Game on Dude, THAS, and Shackleford (if going) will all be looking for the front. Tizway, Stay Thirsty and Twirling Candy wont be far back. Barring defections from the race it could very easily be hot up front. Go ahead and beat me.

I think you have to use Flat Out and Havre De Grace as win candidates. Underneath, why not Ruler on Ice? I thought he ran well in the PA derby and distance is obviously not an issue with a little bit of a meltdown clunking along for 3rd or 4th isn't impossible. Same goes for Awesome Gem. Will be interesting to see how So You Think and Await the Dawn train at Churchill.

Just the way I'm going to approach it... now Mo will win by 5.

So 30 days out here's my guess for closing odds in the Classic for this 14 horse field:

Uncle Mo 3 - 1
Havre de Grace 4 - 1
Tizway 5 - 1
Game on Dude 9 - 1
To Honor and Serve 11 -1
Stay Thirsty 11 - 1
Flat Out 12 - 1
Giant Oak 13 - 1
Twirling Candy 15 - 1
So You Think 15 - 1
Ruler on Ice 25 - 1
Ice Box 30 - 1
Awesome Gem 30 - 1

Interestingly my 14 horse field only had 13 names. Add Prayer for Relief at 19 -1.

So You Think?
 

This isn't a race to enter as a spur of the moment, nothing else left to do race. I will take American horses pointing to BCC over SYT, etc.

Flat Out at 12-1... :zz: Try 5-1.

12-1 on Flat Out? He'd be the overlay of the year and I'd do cartwheels (poorly) in my living room before the race if he is that high.

I think he's going to be 3rd choice at worst assuming all of the names you mention go and I think he'll be shorter odds than Tizway.

Really 12 since you listed Ice Box.