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-   -   7/16 (DEL): Delaware H. (G2), Carpenter Jr. Mem. S., Sussex S. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43047)

Dahoss 07-16-2011 11:32 PM

I'd be interested in hearing Jones explain the math behind 2 pounds equaling 1 1/4 lengths. The should not have run stuff is embarrassing.

Your filly ran a very solid race. Tip your giant hat and shut up now.

Calzone Lord 07-16-2011 11:55 PM

On both the Thoro-Graph and Ragozin scales ... 2 pounds at 10 furlongs equals 4/5ths or 80% of one length.

From the study Beyer did on weight - published in Beyer on Speed - I believe a pound is equal to 4/10ths of one Beyer Point. So, two pounds at 10fs, would equal 80% of one Beyer point - or about a margin of a Neck.

So, basically, if you believe Thoro-Graph and Ragozin - the 2lbs was worth 8/10ths of a length.

If you believe Beyer, it was worth about a neck.


I have seen differences of opinion on the subject in the Euro material as well - but weight is viewed with more importance there - and I believe most of the material I've seen has the spread even a little wider than Thoro-Graph and Ragozin have it.

King Glorious 07-17-2011 12:02 AM

Whittingham would have said it mattered. So would Frankel. So would Mack Miller. That's good enough for me.

Dahoss 07-17-2011 12:09 AM

What would Lebron James or Michael Vick have said?

Calzone Lord 07-17-2011 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious (Post 792150)
Whittingham would have said it mattered. So would Frankel. So would Mack Miller. That's good enough for me.

Frankel was a Sheets user - and a Jew... so yeah, obviously.

Whittingham and Miller probably wouldn't have bemoaned two fricken pounds. They raced at a time when racing Sec's weren't pussies.

Dahoss 07-17-2011 12:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 792152)
Frankel was a Sheets user - and a Jew... so yeah, obviously.

Whittingham and Miller probably wouldn't have bemoaned two fricken pounds. They raced at a time when racing Sec's weren't pussies.

You're missing the best part of his post. It takes a special person to be able to talk for 3 people who aren't alive. Quite a talent.

You'd think someone so talented might be right about something. Ever.

Calzone Lord 07-17-2011 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 792151)
What would Lebron James or Michael Vick have said?

Can't figure out if I should take a swing at a Bad News Kennel/Dogfighting joke or a joke about Lebron's clutchness down the stretch.

Dahoss 07-17-2011 12:26 AM

Ron Mexico

Calzone Lord 07-17-2011 12:34 AM

Forget about that, sh!t.

Pretty awesome he crafted a new name solely for the purpose of spreading herpes.

You know what they say, if you don't learn from your mistakes, you are bound to fucl< CowgirlinTexas twice.

King Glorious 07-17-2011 01:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 792151)
What would Lebron James or Michael Vick have said?

That you are an ******* and that there are better ways to spend your Saturday night than trolling after every post I make.

Indian Charlie 07-17-2011 01:32 AM

Dude,
Blind Luck was the winner the whole way and would have won spotting her 5 lbs.

On the other hand, in defense of Jones, I believe it was Dorf earlier in the week that said he wasn't going to run BL unless he got the two pound weight break.

Both trainers are pussies.

Calzone Lord 07-17-2011 02:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 792161)
Dude,
Blind Luck was the winner the whole way and would have won spotting her 5 lbs.

Sh!t take, the margin was like a nose - and weight being an overrated factor or not in terms of betting - every pound certainly does help and matter.

A 7lbs weight reversal at 10fs is more significant than you think.

On to something you might know something about ...

Is it true that Jews are buried standing up? And if so, is the reason really so no change will fall out of their pockets?

Indian Charlie 07-17-2011 02:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 792163)
Sh!t take, the margin was like a nose - and weight being an overrated factor or not in terms of betting - every pound certainly does help and matter.

A 7lbs weight reversal at 10fs is more significant than you think.

On to something you might know something about ...

Is it true that Jews are buried standing up? And if so, is the reason really so no change will fall out of their pockets?

Like I said, Blind Luck was the winner the whole way around and would have won, regardless of the weight (within reason). Don't forget, it's Blind Luck we're talking about. She lives to make races close. My thoughts upon seeing the race was that Blind Luck was much better than her nose victory looked.

Yes, all Jews are buried standing up. They are propped up with a large crucifex.

And no, it's not to prevent change from falling out of their pockets, as the family members and Jewish mortuary will have already taken all of that out.

You'd feel right at home at a Jewish funeral!

Calzone Lord 07-17-2011 02:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 792166)
Don't forget, it's Blind Luck we're talking about. She lives to make races close.

Bullsh!t.

Here she is winning a Grade 1 race by 7:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMU4MgAUVnc


But yeah, when her main competition is evenly matched - or when the pace is snail enough - she lives to make races close and or she gets beat.

Calzone Lord 07-17-2011 03:01 AM

I think Vic blew his load after she crossed the 1/16th pole in that race.

Wonder what he was aiming at?

Zenyatta pic: -120
Azeri pic: +100
Field: +10,000

Kasept 07-17-2011 04:59 AM

106 Beyers for the top pair..

Cannon Shell 07-17-2011 05:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 792149)
On both the Thoro-Graph and Ragozin scales ... 2 pounds at 10 furlongs equals 4/5ths or 80% of one length.

From the study Beyer did on weight - published in Beyer on Speed - I believe a pound is equal to 4/10ths of one Beyer Point. So, two pounds at 10fs, would equal 80% of one Beyer point - or about a margin of a Neck.

So, basically, if you believe Thoro-Graph and Ragozin - the 2lbs was worth 8/10ths of a length.

If you believe Beyer, it was worth about a neck.


I have seen differences of opinion on the subject in the Euro material as well - but weight is viewed with more importance there - and I believe most of the material I've seen has the spread even a little wider than Thoro-Graph and Ragozin have it.

If he is concerned about sheet theory he should have told his rider to stay on the rail during the first turn where he could have saved ground instead of going 3 wide.

Trainers complain about the weights a lot more for the owners benefit than because they really believe a pound makes a difference. And because the top guys who usually do the complaining are used to everyone bending over backwards to give them something. It is a shock to the system when they don't get their way. Though Jones moaning sounds like he believes it.

Calzone Lord 07-17-2011 05:35 AM

I loved the sh!t fit Frankel and Bailey threw after Wild Spirit (at 1/9 odds) was edged in the Personal Ensign by Passing Shot.

Remember that one?

Wild Spirit romped by 6 in the Del Cap in her previous race over a solid field (Take Charge Lady, Summer Colony, and a couple decent others IIRC)

They assign her with 122lbs for the Personal Ensign. Frankel goes off about it. She gets beat a nose by the Jerkens rat. Bailey blasts Mike Lakow in the interview and gets fined for it if I recall.

Probably - only time in history a jockey was ever fined for trashing a racing sec in a tv interview.


It's funny that Jones wants to bitch about giving Blind Luck 2lbs - someone should show him Discovery and the form's of the horses he had to give insanely large weight spreads to in the mid 30's.

Calzone Lord 07-17-2011 05:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell (Post 792172)
Trainers complain about the weights a lot.

Regardless - 2lbs still means a little something - especially at 10fs.

In a race that came down to basically a head-bob - all things being the same otherwise - of course it was a deciding factor in the outcome.

Fulla Sheets 07-17-2011 06:19 AM

Although it probably happened, I don't recall Hollendorfer complaining after the Cotillion when Blind Luck lost by a neck when giving HDG 10 lbs.

Regardless, if Jones wanted to prove he had the better filly, he should have beaten her when giving up weight, like BL did in last year's Delaware Oaks, when giving 6 lbs.


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