Yeah, it's a shame he didn't come out as a 4yo to prove whether or not he was better than Alysheba. Not running in '88 and missing the Triple Crown leaves with him with an incomplete career. Judging by comments from Mack Miller, it seems that a lot of it was by design (anti-KY Derby, syndication concerns) rather than necessity.

Speaking of not running at 4, how dominant would Forty Niner have been in NY at 4 (at least until the Whitney) had he shown up? Even better if Seeking The Gold held up.

Something like 9:1 with maybe one work showing. I think Beyer wrote an article about it.

Forty Niner would have dominated, as you said, until Easy Goer started running in the big races for olders.

Seeking the Gold finishing in a three horse photo with Proper Reality and entrymate Dancing Spree in the 1989 Met was a sad moment.

I thought Proper Reality was a pretty bitchin' horse myself.

Never was a fan of Dancing Spree though.

Just pulled the chart. He paid $30.60, after opening far shorter, if my memory is correct. I don't recognize most of the other horses in the race, except that the firster that took the most money (at 2-1) and finished fourth, beaten ten lengths, was Strong Hope.

:tro:

Yeah, but that was his coming out party....and he couldn't have beaten Seeking the Gold when he was good.

Dancing Spree did win the BC Sprint later that year.

Yeah, obviously STG was a better horse.

Dancing Spree fluked that BC Sprint win.

That was a great ride by Cordero.

As for 1997 HOY:

If he did anything between the Belmont and Malibu, a case could have been made for Silver Charm, no?

Won

Kentucky Derby-G1

Preakness S.-G1

San Vicente S.-G3


2nd

Belmont S.-G1

Santa Anita Derby-G1

Malibu S.-G1

San Felipe S.-G2

Dancing Spree won because of the mayhem that Sam Who caused.

We had a horse in that race. I remember the race like it was yesterday. He trained at Classic Mile who has no official clocker. He showed a couple of slow halfs like 52 and change, but somehow lured Prado to ride. Classic Mile and Palm Beach Downs are two sweet spots if you have one you want to put over...

While On The Line lost all chance because of Sam Who's lateral move, not sure if it really affected the outcome, as the other speed, Safely Kept and Olympic Prospect were unaffected. On The Line, et al. would have only added to their already breakneck :44 flat duel, which was probably the main reason why Dancing Spree got up.

I suppose you could say Dispersal would have won with a clean trip, but IIRC he was a free-running horse and would have probably been up much closer and likely fried otherwise. I would suggest instead that his trouble actually benefited him by knocking him well off the pace and forcing him into making a late run.

That aside, Dancing Spree was a more than capable sprinter having won the True North, Carter, Churchill Downs Handicap, etc.

:tro: Amen.

On the Line was more than able to sit and pounce. He could blaze away, or sit back off the lead. It made no difference. If he fired that day, he wins. To this day I'd rate him one of the top five sprinters I've seen.

The question then becomes would he have fired? IIRC, he had been routing in the fall, not sprinting, and also was coming off bad, recent beats at Oak Tree in CA and Aqueduct in NY. Seems like he was a tired horse at that point, not a horse sitting on a BC Sprint win.

His most recent start before the BC was a 5th by 2 at AQU going a mile, with the winner, Dispersal, going in 132.4

The race before that, he did get his ass kicked, but it was going 8.5 at SA, in which he ran 3rd by 8 to the red hot Present Value and the mighty Rahy. 140 3/5ths was the winning time.

The race before that he won in 133.2 at DMR.

The race before that, also at DMR, he was 2nd by 1/2 to the very underrated Olympic Native. 120 1/5th was the winning time. In third, another whopping eleven lengths back, was Sam Who.

The race before that, also DMR, he won by 3 going 6f in 108 flat.

Yeah, he would have handled Dancing Spree.

Everyone has an opinion and Java Gold was mine. Had he won th JCGC, he was a lock. But he didn't so it can be reasoned, I think, that the loss of that race cost him the title. Ferdinand ended up winning, even though he lost six of his 10 races that year. One of the losses was to Broad Brush in the SA Hcp, the same horse that Java Gold beat in the Whitney. I know, he got 14 pounds when he did it. The one thing that I took from the Travers was that while the ability of Alysheba and Bet Twice was clearly compromised by the conditions, the form of Cryptoclearance wasn't and Java Gold handled him easily. By measuring how much better he was versus Cryptoclearance against how much better they were, it's clear to me that he was at the very least, on the level with them. He also handled Gulch a couple of other times and Gulch was a high quality horse.

I thought that neither Alysheba or Bet Twice clearly established themselves as the best of their crop and in fact, never really seperated from it. Lost Code came from the minor league circuit and ran them to a draw in the Haskell. Polish Navy handled Bet Twice in the Woodward (Gulch was second). Alysheba ran decent enough in the Super Derby before his excellent Classic.....but if Java Gold is punished for losing the Gold Cup, why isn't Alysheba for his Belmont? Don't tell me he was tired from the exhusting series because the three horses that beat him ran in all three races two and in fact, Gulch won the Met Mile during the series. Was it the Lasix issue? I'd give that more consideration as both of his inexplicably bad races came in NY.

You can have your opinion that Java Gold didn't deserve HOY and I respect your opinions. But I will never be convinced that he wasn't the best of that class or that he didn't prove on the track that at the very least, he was their equal. If not Java Gold, the two best choices were Manila and Theatrical, not Ferdinand, Alysheba or Bet Twice.

Maybe...if they ran the BC in the summer.

He goes from running 3 huge races (all at Del Mar) in July and August and suddenly can barely hit the board in two races in October just a couple of weeks before the BC. Not to mention the two horses that just beat him, Dispersal and Sewickley, were also in the race.

Maybe the cutback would have woken him up, but on paper he was a horse with declining form.

Other notes that don't suit:

1) Ferdinand lost to Broad Brush in the Big Cap by a nose, giving the latter--who would go on to carry heavy assignments the rest of the year-- 3 lbs.

2) Broad Brush emerged from the Whitney with strained ankle ligaments, effectively ending his season and career--while giving 14 lbs.

I agree. Java Gold, Alysheba, and Bet Twice were consistently better than Cryptoclearance and Gulch all season long. Not sure how this separates Java Gold from the other two as a leading contender for HOY.

Huh? The 5 most important races for 3yos during the year are the KY Derby, Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, and Travers. They combined for 4 of those, adding 3 second place finishes to boot.

How was the Haskell a draw, by the way? Lost Code, a very good horse in his own right--who did not run in the classics, was 3rd. Should Burning Roma have been considered for champion 3yo in '01 for running 3rd to Point Given?

Bet Twice was injured in the Woodward.

He was punished...he wasn't HOY or, more importantly, a Triple Crown winner.

He did win champion 3yo, though.

Why couldn't he or Bet Twice or Gulch or Cryptoclearance (the latter 3 all of whom finished the year with off-the-board finishes) be tired?

But let's put that aside, and look at the converse. Why should Java Gold get a pass for passing the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness, and Belmont, never mind the BC Classic? Clearly he and oft-injured Polish Navy, with their belated starts reaped the benefits in the fall.

The fact that the classic-starting 3yos were still slugging it out relatively successfully at that point is a testament to their durability. The fact that Alysheba, alone, was the only classic 3yo to go on and win a major stakes in the fall (Super Derby) and just miss in the final big race of the season (the BC Classic) separates him from the rest of his crop.

He was certainly a better horse going 6 than longer. If you remember the horse at all, you'd know that.

A fifth by 2 going a mile run in 132.4 was a perfect setup race for him.