Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   Stakes Archive (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=24)
-   -   11/27 (AQU): Cigar (G1); Gazelle, Remsen, Demoiselle (G2's) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=39718)

RockHardTen1985 11-27-2010 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 727853)
I never thought I'd utter these words, but...

I hope Musket Man wins here!

Haynesfield is my favorite horse in here, but I don't see him doing squat today.

Barring jockeys screwing the race up that is.

He wont win. He never wins. He stinks, he has never been good.

The Indomitable DrugS 11-27-2010 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Betsy (Post 727859)
So when you calculate BSF then, a horses career form plays a big part in it? They assume that a horse isn't going to freak or just run too bad to be true?

The horses forms are what you use to establish the variant. The variant is basically the speed of the racing surface.

That is why - for instance - it's hard to trust any figure on days when you have only a single route race on the card.

Today at AQU - you had 3 races at 9fs on dirt so a variant is solid.

I don't understand your second question.

Indian Charlie 11-27-2010 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 727864)
He wont win. He never wins. He stinks, he has never been good.

LOL.

He's a cinch.

RockHardTen1985 11-27-2010 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 727877)
LOL.

He's a cinch.


But I have been doing this w/ him for almost 2 years, when is the last time he won?

eajinabi 11-27-2010 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 727858)
I can't believe the money Musket Man is taking. I have to bet Jersey Town who seems like an overlay to me.

34-1!!! Good call!

-BT- 11-27-2010 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 727858)
I can't believe the money Musket Man is taking. I have to bet Jersey Town who seems like an overlay to me.

nicely done


-bt-

The Indomitable DrugS 11-27-2010 03:01 PM

Giant Oak and Jersey Town are our newest Grade 1 winners in the Handicap division on dirt?

This has been one of the most brutal years ever for the handicap divison.

Thank God Girolamo was coupled - I would have bet my lungs on him in there if he wasn't coupled with VH to shave his odds.

Indian Charlie 11-27-2010 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 727879)
But I have been doing this w/ him for almost 2 years, when is the last time he won?

Honestly, I rarely pay attention to your horse picks.

I never liked Musket Man either.

The Indomitable DrugS 11-27-2010 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 727858)
I can't believe the money Musket Man is taking. I have to bet Jersey Town who seems like an overlay to me.

Nice call!

Indian Charlie 11-27-2010 03:02 PM

Nice hit Hoss. I hope you weren't be facetious.

GPK 11-27-2010 03:02 PM

Great call Hussy.:tro:

The Indomitable DrugS 11-27-2010 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 727890)
Honestly, I rarely pay attention to your horse picks.

I never liked Musket Man either.

Musket Man is toast. He was rushed back to make a race at MTH with only a single workout - beaten fair and square by Etched .. and than drubbed in the slowest BC Classic race ever.

Betsy 11-27-2010 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 727874)
The horses forms are what you use to establish the variant. The variant is basically the speed of the racing surface.

That is why - for instance - it's hard to trust any figure on days when you have only a single route race on the card.

Today at AQU - you had 3 races at 9fs on dirt so a variant is solid.

I don't understand your second question.


Thank you for explaining this to me. I think I get the general idea, but I admit it's still a bit confusing. Then again, no one ever accused me of being a math whiz, lol

Dahoss 11-27-2010 03:09 PM

Thanks guys...needed that after yesterday.

Indian Charlie 11-27-2010 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 727905)
Thanks guys...needed that after yesterday.

Did TFF give you that one?

The Indomitable DrugS 11-27-2010 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Betsy (Post 727902)
Well for instance, you mentioned several horses' general career BSF ranges and I thought you were saying that since, say No Such Word generally runs in the 91-95 range, she probably ran that today............and if a 1 second difference between the Remsen and Gazelle equates to 9 points, then that would be approximately a 104 for THAS. If I'm mistaken, I apologize.

Yes. Let's assume To Honor And Serve ran a 104 today. That would mean ...

No Such Word won the Gazelle with a 95. She has run 91, 95, and 94 in her three most recent starts.

Awesome Marian ran a 91 today while 2nd in the Gazelle. She has run an 87 and 89 in her last two dirt races.

Seeking the Title ran an 88 today while 3rd. Her last three numbers were 75, 89, and 92.


Dixie City ran a 79 while winning the Demoiselle. Her last two numbers are 75 and 76.

Believe in AP ran a 74 while running 2nd. Her last two numbers are 76 and 75.

Tap For Luck ran a 55 while running 3rd. Her last two numbers are 76 and 61.


To Honor and Serve ran a 104 for winning the Remsen. His last two are 97 and 95.

Mucho Macho Man ran a 101 for running 2nd. His last two are 89 and 82.

Mountain Town ran a 96. He ran a 85 last time when 2nd to Uncle Mo in the Champagne.

Bandbox ran a 74 in the Remsen - his last two are 75 and 86

Buffum ran a 71. He won his debut with a 96. Obviously he's a 2nd time starter who had some early trouble and didn't run his race.

Betsy 11-27-2010 07:35 PM

Per Andy's tweet, THAS got a 102 BSF and Jersey Town a 107

Indian Charlie 11-27-2010 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Betsy (Post 728056)
Per Andy's tweet, THAS got a 102 BSF and Jersey Town a 107

So, Mo's last performance woulda won the Cigar, but the third place finisher in the Remsen would have turned the tables on Mo in the Champagne!!!

Sightseek 11-27-2010 08:25 PM

I've never seen chart notes say "nibbled against the bit" or such a complete narrative.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...112710USA7.pdf

RolloTomasi 11-27-2010 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 728097)
I've never seen chart notes say "nibbled against the bit" or such a complete narrative.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...112710USA7.pdf

Wow. I wonder what the hell that was supposed to mean.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:12 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.