Originally Posted by eurobounce

That isnt the stat we are viewing Oracle--you are funny. That stat is based on the number of mounts vs number of wins. We are assuming that Gomez is riding at 20% clip based on his number of mounts. If you have him 25 more mounts (equals Prado) then he will have 5 more wins like Rupert has said. That would give him a 2 race lead. But what you have to take into account is the Prado will have more than 25 more mounts than Gomez. I predict that he will end up having 33-36 more mounts.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. You say that the mount difference will not be constant and you are correct about that. But neither will the win difference. As of right now, these two jocks have pretty much the same win percentage. If two guys have the same win percentage, that means they will have an equal number of winners if they have the same number of mounts. That is the reason we look at win percentage. If one guy has 60 wins from 300 mounts, and another guy has 40 wins from 200 mounts, what conclusion would you draw? I would conclude that they are both riding at a 20% clip and if they had an eual number of mounts they would have the same number of wins.

What is so confusing about that?

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. You say that the mount difference will not be constant and you are correct about that. But neither will the win difference. As of right now, these two jocks have pretty much the same win percentage. If two guys have the same win percentage, that means they will have an equal number of winners if they have the same number of mounts. That is the reason we look at win percentage. If one guy has 60 wins from 300 mounts, and another guy has 40 wins from 200 mounts, what conclusion would you draw? I would conclude that they are both riding at a 20% clip and if they had an eual number of mounts they would have the same number of wins.

What is so confusing about that?

Originally Posted by oracle80

Thats where you are wrong. If Gomez had frieze even three behind as he is now, I'd still bet Frieze. Nice to know you actually are a sick enough guy to think you know my thoughts better than me, lol.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Stats arent his strong point Rupert. I think thats pretty clear. Number of mounts have nothing to do with pure percentage of wins.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

But they dont have the same win %. Do you not understand that? Good lord.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Yes I undertsand that. Gomez's win percenatge is 1 point higher. That means that they would need to have 700 mounts a piece for Gomez to have a 7 win lead.

7 is 1% of 700.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I don't know what he's so confused about. You don't need to do any complex calculations. If you want to know who would have more wins if they had an equal number of mounts, their win percentage will tell you that, that is assuming that their win percentage stays constant. If they had an equal number of mounts right now, Gomez would be up by 2. It's not rocket science.

Originally Posted by oracle80

LOL!!!! This is sixth grade stats!!!!

Originally Posted by eurobounce

We arent talking about equal number of mounts Rupert. We are talking about Prado having approximately 35 more mounts than Gomez. Ok, One is riding at 20% based on his sample, the other is 21% on his sample. If you project that Gomez would ride 20% winners from that 35 more mounts, that equates to 7.35 more winners (21%). This is all I am saying.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

As I said before, I'm not sure what he is so confused about. If they both had 5000 mounts, then Gomez would have 50 more wins. But with only 200 mounts a piece, you would expect Gomez to be leading by 2.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

We arent talking about equal number of mounts Rupert. We are talking about Prado having approximately 35 more mounts than Gomez. Ok, One is riding at 20% based on his sample, the other is 21% on his sample. If you project that Gomez would ride 20% winners from that 35 more mounts, that equates to 7.35 more winners (21%). This is all I am saying.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Right now, Prado has 25 more mounts and he is ahead by 3. If Prado sat out the rest of the meet and Gomez rode 25 more horses, you would expect Gomez to win 5 races and that would put him ahead of Prado by 2. If you want to give Gomez an additional 35 mounts, that would give him 10 more mounts than Prado, so if you give Gomez 35 more mounts, then you need to give Prado 10 more mounts. You would expect Prado to win 2 races from those 10 mounts. That means that he would be 2 wins behind Gomez.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I get that. I am saying that Gomez would have 7.35 more wins. I dont understand why are you are so confused.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That is incorrect. If Gomez had an equal number of mounts with Prado right now, he would be ahead by 2 wins. You can ask anyone on this board. This is simple math. You won't find one person out of 50 that would agree with your math. You're saying that 1+1 = 3.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Exactly.......

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That is incorrect. If Gomez had an equal number of mounts with Prado right now, he would be ahead by 2 wins. You can ask anyone on this board. This is simple math. You won't find one person out of 50 that would agree with your math. You're saying that 1+1 = 3.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

What I am doing is projections.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

There are no projections that would show Gomez leading by 7 right now. He would have to win with 10 out of his next 25 mounts to be ahead by 7. The proper projection would be to assume that he would win with 5 of those mounts, putting him ahead by 2.