kev you gotta bear in mind that they can play games too with the spacing of works , just like they do with the times

Screw all that crap, Gales, WE WANT EDDIE K UPDATES!!!!!

nt

listening to Payson Dave is better than listening to the trainers IMO.

sometimes you can get a good tip on firsters though.

But I agree with jms. If I'm going to put $ on a firster, I want to see a bullet in the final work or two, and I prefer to see it at 5 furlongs, not 3 furlongs.

But I'm not much of a handicapper at all, I could be way off base.

But Payson Dave and that workout (and sometimes breeding and trainer 1st time stats) are all I'll bet firsters off of.

Usually, maiden races like this are just best to enjoy without a wager though... IMO

Three of the first four horses in the 3rd today are Dance With Ravens debuters going 5.5f. Wow.

I wouldn't be shocked if all three of them are prepping for turf routes.

The goofy ass one starting from the rail RNA'd for 12K a few months ago. Long stride and pretty green.

The dam of the David Donk one won her debut on the turf and won a stake goign 9f on turf.

The dam of the Aquilino won her debut going 4.5 furlongs on the dirt and was actually a solid 4th to Flanders in the Spinaway. Later ended up being a Graded Stakes winning turf router.

If any of those horses can run at all .. it will most likely be going long on turf.

oh boy...maybe I should remove my tounge from my cheek now:rolleyes:

I hardly ever get a bigger laugh at the track than when I see someone point to the Form and go "he's working well" or "he's working like crap" as if they've seen the horse in the morning. Bullet works/# of works mean nothing without the context of the horse's trainer, and even then they're of minimal value. Assuming that a horse is working well because of 'fast' workouts/working badly because of 'slow' ones is a quick way to the poorhouse.

What do you look for in a work? I actually figured that Stay Thirsty was going to run soon based on his last work, 51 and change. Prior to that he'd worked in 48 and change, breezing, so I figured Pletcher was just sending him out for some excercise. Of course he already has experience.............

That makes sense, so then how do you bet a race like this? I figure Stay Thirsty will be the favorite, but how do you determine which firsters to play? Pedigree?

Watch the board. Beyond that, look for win early sires/trainers/dams/siblings.

I agree. There's nothing funnier than listening to someone tell you how a Steve Asmussen horse can't win because their works are so slow. I don't ever listen to what anyone else has to say about a workout unless I know that they saw it or look at the way that trainer prepares their horses on a day to day basis.

The winner we just had in the 2nd was one of those that pops up that you can't be ready for. The horse had gaps in her workouts, was basically purchased from the dollar store at the sale and had nothing in her pedigree to lead you to believe she could win now or ever by ten lengths at Saratoga.

NT

Ralph Nicks isn't exactly John Shirreffs of 10 years ago - but he was 22% with debuters at a $6.39 ROI on paper coming in - and I don't think that stat includes his debut winner from a few days ago in the turf sprint. The ROI is so high because he had an $82 debut winner at KEE last year. Lion Heart is ok win early - and the fact that the horse sold for 11K as a yearling could be taken as a big positive ... because horses who sell that cheap as yearlings often debut for a tag when they go to a trainer who will place them aggressively.

I was hoping the horse would take money - She didn't so I pitched her.

1. Any Given Saturday only won his debut by a nose at Turfway Park. If by some miracle this ones as good as him - he'll need to be plenty better on debut to win this. Pass.

2. Not on debut at 6f against these. Pass.

3. Good deal of money to pay for a Roman Ruler out of a Silver Charm dam that's produced nothing. Was a colt when they bought him - is a gelding now. Would have to be pretty live on the board to use.

4. same comment as #2

5. Ralph Nicks - by Officer out of Forty Niner mare - 40K weanling turned 230K yearling. Gomez rides. Lots to like.

6. 200K yearling turned 2.3 million 2yo less than six months later. I wasn't quite as dazzled by its preview as much as some were - but its still a use.

7. No

8. Sold for 37K as a yearling in Jan - and 400K as a yearling in July. I guess when your by a young unproven sire in Jan - and your by the sire who threw both the Derby and Belmont winner come July - and you've filled out well and have Seattle Slew on the bottom that can happen. I'll pass unless this one is rabidly live on the board.

9. Same comment as 2 and 4

10. Coming out of a very strong MSW race, adding blinkers, two works since the race - a lot of reasons to improve but I hate Lukas and will play against this stopper.

11. 160k yl turned 500k 2yo - earned a figure in defeat in debut that's faster than winning par for a 2yo MSW at Saratoga. You're supposed to single these horses every time in races like this... but I don't want a short price on a Bernardini going just 6fs .. especially when the dams only career win came going 12fs in Europe on poly at Lingfield and its a half sibling to two monumental prick teases in Superfly and Andromedia's Hero.

The bet: backwheel the 11 in 2nd place in the exacta ... with the 5 and 6. If either the 3 or 8 happens to be live - include them in the top slot as well.

Solid analysis Doug.

Especially when there is no way, on paper, to tell which works were fiction and which were non-fiction.

I'm surprised Pletcher is running Stay Thirsty at 6 furlongs, but I suppose there weren't any 7 furlong races scheduled for awhile.

amen brother and so is betting heavily on those two year old races. throw darts...pick your favorite number or color.....i hope everyone had valiant passion at 30-1.....she won like she was 1-9....i guess she was working badly .....lol.....lol. bet those ridiculous races at your own risk! a little , yeah, if you get lucky...so be it. if you are betting them like you seriously know what might happen....you are a moron.

Exactly.
I think workouts only matter if an actual pattern can be ascertained (for either the trainer or the horse). If a trainer typically works his horses fast (Baffert) and you see a debut animal that isn't working fast....okay, maybe that tells you something. If a trainer doesn't have a pattern, however, or if you just don't know what that trainer's pattern is, then I'm not sure workouts tell you anything. For horses with experience I might look at a pattern in works too. If a horse consistently has a bullet work right before their best races, then okay, that might tell you something too.

The other thing that is just like this is when people talk about how a horse acts in the paddock or the post parade. I guess some people really do get info from that, but 99% of people that talk about that stuff are full of crap. Like workouts, I only really think it matters if you can determine a pattern. They'll invariably be some dude saying, "Oh! the favorite looks worked up and agitated in the paddock. I'm not betting him!" Of course, the dude has no idea if the horse looked "worked up and agitated" before any of the horse's previous starts, and if there is any connection between times he looked worked up and times he ran poorly.

Good analysis of the race Doug, but this one confuses me a bit. If you are tossing the #1 because of the pedigree (DH / AP Indy mare), wouldn't the Asmussen colt (DH / AP Indy mare) need to be tossed by the same logic?
Or do you believe that the big price tag alone makes that one a must use?

I'm never betting a Violette firster again...

In the TDN Berkelhammer and Nicks said they basically last minute decided to buy Valiant Passion and didn't even vet her. They also dangled the "for sale" sign after yesterday.

I know, because now Rick is only 22% first time out, with a $2.46ROI the past 3 years.
16 second place finishes, 10 thirds....