Hey Stormcat,
The pace is what I will be watching, if it is anything around 47 as opposed to 46 for the half I would expect it will favor the forwardly placed horses. If it is 46 a closer could possibly take it. Aikenite will be taken back for one run, if he gets 46 to run at he has a shot, obviously I am hoping for some heat up front. Goodluck with your picks!

When was the last time a closer won this race?

Seems to me that it has favored the speed and pace ( 1,2,3,) positions.

2007
2006
2005

In addition closers have run well here that didn't win, Mine That Bird, Magic Wisener, Captain Bolgit ect...I'm sure I'm missing a few but it's not an impossible track to make up ground on. Obcourse it all depends if there is some pace to run at.

Its a fair track.

The chance that the opening half-mile in the Preakness is in :46 and change is almost non-existent. The pace is going to be very soft IMO and that's going to play into Super Saver's hands.

NT

Afleet Alex was a closer? Bernardini? With all due respect, but really?

I was asking a ?, not claiming to be the expert. By the way how far back do you consider a horse to be a closer,,,,, say when the leaders get to the quarter pole?

Big Brown had one of the greatest closes in the history of the Preakness. That is if you consider the top of the stretch as closing territory.

Big Brown was never more than 3 lenghts off the pace, he did swing wide to find clear running in the stretch.

2009 RA set the fractions for most of the race.
2008 Big Brown was clearly just off the pace
2007 Curlin sat back with Street Sense while a speed duel set up the closer Curlin.
2006 Bernadinie rated 4th just off the pace
2005 AA Closed from 10th as the speed backed up.
2004 Smarty Party raced within 1/2 lenght of the pace.
2003 We all remember Funny Cide stalking the pace.
2002 War Emblem Set the fractions?
2001 Point Given the most over rated horse in my time had to be off the pace and grind it out, because he was devoid of early speed and had NO turn of foot. Plodder

In this case AA was a closer.

No Savings!!!
 

Oh my God. Disaster. Back to the drawing board. SS had nothin. Very surprised.

First Dude ran HUGE.

Feel bad for Belmont too. Wanted that crowd.

Yeah I always feel bad for NY in situations like this.

Donna said he'd lost weight and the way she did it, right before the start, I just went 'uh oh, I bet he loses.' I got the impression from others that he was holding his weight well, but I guess not. At least I didn't spend the race convinced he was destined for victory only to see him fall apart.

On paper i thought so too. But you know it did not matter what the pace was today. SS just did not have anything in the tank.