Was thinking that exact thing watching today's race.

Nice call on Warriors Reward - Sidney's Candy is a nice horse, but the trip Gomez gave LAL was unbelievably horrific.

I think Gary Stevens actually hit the nail on the head when he said Gomez "made his own trouble." Luckin at Lucky was in all sorts of self-made close quarters throughout that race. I will say one thing for that horse - between the REbel and this one, the horse has shown some guts.

I can give him a pass on getting squeezed on the start, but where in the hell he thought he was putting him into the final turn is one for the ages. I can only assume he thought the 3 was going to give him the rail the whole way through - big mistake - apparently the two had words after the race...
I agree with you, he's got a ton of class to rally the way he did to hit the board.. hope he comes out ok

The horses he rallied to beat are horrendous slugs. Lookin at Lucky has never ran a fast race in he life. Troubled efforts against slow horses isn't so special

Exactly. The horse has no burst. If he did, he gets through on the rail and wins that race, or at least makes a run at it. And the "trouble" before the final turn that Stevens was yapping about was a joke. He lucked his way into a dream trip until the quarter pole.

It would have been nice to see what he could have done w/ SC had he had a clean trip. Personally I don't believe he gets to him today, but add the extra distance in the Derby - just saying it would have been telling... Freddy is spot on with the finish but still he showed class which, save for Eskenderya is painfully lacking this year.

I guess the answer is yes

Yeah ... American Lion ran pretty big yesterday. Closers Dave In Dixie and Stephen's Hope - who both finished very close last time at SA when against a slow pace - they both got destroyed.

I think your looking at about a 106 Beyer from him.

One of the most classic examples I missed was Well Armed prior to his 14 length win at 9/1 odds in the Dubai World Cup.

He walked on easy lead and was caught by Magnum last out - and two back he rated - made a move - and faded in the stretch.




Champion older male and synthetic hater Lawyer Ron is an example of a good horse as well .. though this was only his maiden win.

That win in the Santa Anita Derby was pretty depressing in a way because I haven't bet him in the last two and now I can't bet on him in the Derby.

Ever since that 7f win in the San Vincente I've obsessed over this horse and would have made a gigantic bet on him if he shipped for the Gotham like first planned.

I love speed going from syn-to-dirt ... but the value isn't going to be there like it would if he ran a poor result.

Really hard to gauge Sidney's Candy from yesterday for me. In the only other route race of the day, it was all closers, and in the Derby itself, the second place horse came from way back. Does that flatter what Sidney's Candy did yesterday?

I think you have to give him a little extra credit, but the other horses that were up front were all 20+. Setsuko made a nice run down the center of the track, but without LAL's trouble, it would have been for 3rd. In the other route early on the card, the winner was 7-1, while the next two finishers were 2-1. Nothing crazy there either. There isn't a large sample of 9f races, but the bris stats show 22% wire at 8f this meet.

More recently Baffert horses Freedom Star and Conveyance. Perhaps Tiz Chrome will fit the profile if he makes his next start on dirt?

Look its a value game I hear you. Still think you will get a decent price if you like him that much in the race.

Don't be too hasty in dismissing any chance of getting value on Sidney's Candy in the Derby. Four weeks from now, many folks will still be discussing LAL's trip in the Santa Anita Derby, not the win by Sidney's Candy. If Noble's Promise wins the Arkansas Derby, even more folks are going to jump on the LAL bandwagon. Eskendereya will the Derby favorite, with LAL a close second. Sidney's Candy might end up the fifth choice behind Ice Box and Noble's Promise. His odds will be even higher if Dublin runs well in the Arkansas Derby and DWL gets his horse for the Derby. Sadler will be forgotten among DLW, TAP, Zito, and Baffert.

I would guess based on recent Derby history that no matter what Dublin does on Saturday that he'll be in the entry box at the Derby.

98

Kensei returned last week, try to control yourself.