Aren't most derbies a pace meltdown?

I think there was a thread somewhere that said a pace meltdown is more the exception than the norm and that most winners come from somewhere sitting off the pace.

When I hear "pace meltdown" I think of Giacomo's year.

So the consensus is that Ice Box is very slow and has no shot against this group of 3 year olds?

I called him the Belmont winner.. He is trained by the best 3 year old trainer.. He aint no War Pass

I wouldn't go that far. There is a gulf between "very slow" and "not fast". I just haven't seen the speed Randall was talking about. Against this particular group of 3 year olds, I would say that many of them at this point still have a shot because there hasnt been one that has been really impressive.

If anyone can bet that horse with confidence in the derby off of what we have seen to date, more power to you.

I watched the race and just didnt seem to have the "wow" factor that i was hoping to see. i think that i put too much stock into that b/c like today the traape shot horse at GP was a wow race but who did he beat? Best wow i have seen was awesom act and looking at lucky almost going down and still winning just my .02

no in my opinion hes not at fast as Eskendereya , but that does not mean in the derby he cant move forward and get a piece..he is one to watch moving forward into the derby he did run down from off the pace and he does have one of the best jocks in the country. my internal trakus says he has a shot.:tro:

It was not a dumb comment at all ... it was a statement of the obvious grounded in extreme common sense at the time it was made.

At the time it was made .. it was known that Zito was going to the Fla Derby with Ice Box next.

It was also highly assumed that Eskenderya would be in the Fla Derby.

Ice Box obviously ran a much better than looked race in the Fountain of Youth .. but he aiming for the KY Derby on what appeared to be the path of greatest resistance in terms of winning a Derby prep.

I used Ice Box heavily in that stupid 10K fantasy contest because his FoY race was so much better than looked and almost no one else at all was using him ... I think saying his next win would come in a Belmont N2X alw race was paying him far more respect than his naked form and future plans indicated.

If history has shown us anything it's that any horsey can win the derby and for obvious reasons.


My very good friend ,Nick,told me he thinks IB has a fighters chance.....although Nick has no idea what he is doing.

Fixed.

Sounds like this was a mystery that only the racing intelligencia could possibly be aware of. On the other hand, it could also be the case that the horse's trip in the FoY was obvious to even the uninitiated. Stranger things have happened.

And, then again, it could also be the case that IB got lucky with the absolutely perfect setup in the FD. Not like it's the 1st time that Zito has stepped in a stall full of ****. His ass must be even bigger than mine.

The mysterious made simple by the Fat Man.

Good try.

Ice Box's poor trip in the FoY was the product of making a visually eye catching 5-wide move on the far turn in a race shape that featured a slow pace and very fast come home time.

He was the one horse you would point to from the FoY as running the best race in relation to how his naked running line would look on paper.

In other words, he ran much better than his 86 Beyer indicated. How much better?

Assuming he was capable of running 5 lengths better with a more reasonable pace in front of him and not having to go so wide the entire way around the far turn .. those 5 lengths would inflate his number all the way to a 94.

A 94 wins most 2nd level alw races at Belmont and makes you very competitive for underneath slots in weaker Derby Prep exotics .. it does not however win you the Fla Derby (unless your name is Bullintheheather)

What's a good try? ... you're utterly clueless if you don't understand that.

We all get horses wrong from time to time. Coming back and redboarding that you use the horse in a dumb online contest doesn't do anything. The horse ran about a 0 on the sheets, I would say you got the horse wrong. I wouldn't come back and say "he did just what I expected."....I'm sure they will be writing a NX3 for him at Belmont after the Derby.

The Wood Memorial is going to answer many questions.

I posted before the fact in the DD thread that Ice Box was used in just 39 stables out of about one thousand - and I used him in 4 of my 8. That's totally besides the point and doesn't matter.

What matters is that a horse won the Fla Derby with a perfect trip and ran only a 99 Beyer ... Devil May Care was faster in victory same day and distance.

That the horse tried to run against the grain in the FoY is OBVIOUS. That the FD was crying out for a CLOSER is also obvious. Everything else is mumbo jumbo. You can't quantify this type of ****, DrugS. How many SLOW longshots need to win before this sinks in? For every slow horse you don't bet you miss out on some bomb you also didn't bet. The speed model is just not the right/best one for this type of event.

You're making a very incorrect assumption if you think I don't bet slow horses like Ice Box who exit races with trips like he did.

I bet them FAR more often than you think... and more often than most people who aren't certified hopelessly bad bettors. People who post here like Indian Charlie and Tector know quite well that I'm not affraid to bet horses who's recent numbers are too slow to compete.

I thought it was evident he has been 2 turns a couple of times which out weighed any number, or suped up number based on reviewing the last trip itself. Numbers can be an asset with historical data, but not with new faces. Depending on a pace collapse to win a race doesn't make great horses.